GREEK SOURCES: ‘Troika deal won’t be enough to save New Democracy’

Greek Prime Minister Samaras has brokered a deal that is no deal at all. A major realignment of Parties in Greece is now on the cards.

Late in August, I posted this piece saying that – whatever rhetoric was flying between Berlin-am-Brussels – there was a deal on the table and both sides wanted it. I was confident in my sources, and I still am. But what I suspect my sources overestimated was the quality of the deal from a Greek point of view.

Greek Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras told the Athens Parliament today that he’d “hammered out a deal” for a loan agreement that gave the country a two-year extension to meet its budget targets in exchange for deep budget cuts.

Whatever the eunatics say, it is a compromise. But on reading the details late last night, my first thought was, ‘Is that it?’

If the demand on the table is that one flies to Jupiter and back unaided by June 2013, and then suddenly the new deal is that you fly to Saturn and back by October 2015, does it help the situation? Call me wacky, but I’d say “No” emphatically.

Greece’s economy, now in its fifth year of contraction, is expected to shrink more than 6% this year and 4.5% next year.
Only an idiot or a sociopathic schemer would suggest that things will be on the mend by 2015. Barroso and Van Rompuy are idiots, but Schäuble and Merkel aren’t. Frankly, I’d be amazed if Greece can last until Spring 2013 without the need for another major bailout.

I don’t know what Antonis Samaras is thinking about tonight, but I have a reasonable idea what Athenian political circles are discussing. I fancy the main topic around power-dinner tables there will be this: the Prime Minister has come out of this largely empty-handed. What does he do now?

The answer has to be “Something very big, and very soon”. There will be more unrest, more police clashes, more hubris from Golden Dawn, and more shrewd analysis from Syriza’s leader Alexis Tsipras. Fatboy Venizelos – the last idiot to leave the Coalition bunker – will convince himself that a gesture of last-minute distancing will help him survive. But the fact remains that the Democratic Left has already gone, and as predicted here eight days ago – Prime Minister Samaras is looking to much grander gestures.

These may well prove to be delusions of grandeur, but Samaras is looking for a new Grand Coalition. So many people are feeding back this line to me now, it seems impossible to think it is merely disinformation bollocks.

Stay tuned. This is could easily turn into an anarchic circus sooner rather than later.

Earlier at The Slog: The Western MSM remains miles behind on the strategic importance of Cyprus

25 thoughts on “GREEK SOURCES: ‘Troika deal won’t be enough to save New Democracy’

  1. Well, I do not think you are too far from the truth. This is a self fulfilling prophecy, though. No one, not even frau Merkel, ever really believed that what was presented as a “coalition government” in Athens was actually anything more than an excuse to just take a few steps. It is expected to fall apart at some point, but I don’t see Greece rushing to elections, as both Nea Dimokratia and Pasok will become “extinguished species”. Even Berlin-am-Brussels is preparing for a “Monti-type” government as we speak. They even started dropping names, now that they’ve gotten to know Greeks so much better. Europeans need to secure their investment. That’s all. And issues like “national sovereignty” are long forgotten anyway…

    • will become “extinguished species” – indeed…

      “Europeans need to secure their investment” – yes however Greece will be removed from the Euro i feel and this by years end.

      Its a simple referendum: Stay in the Euro and remain Europeans vs Out of Euro and remain Greek.

      My question is… What will allow you to rebuild for yourself rather than for somebody else…

  2. Yes the eunuchs lack the balls to confront reality; we, therefore, have no alternative but to continue slogging a dead bourse.

  3. Pingback: John Ward – Greek Sources : ‘Troika Deal Won’t Be Enough To Save New Democracy’ – 24 October 2012 | Lucas 2012 Infos

  4. An old colleague of mine used to say, ‘If things don’t change around here, they will stay the same’ Not so different to the EU eh? Still we survived the predicted Autumn crash, The EU is still intact, all recessions are over, and as Hollande says, ‘We are over the worse’ Couldn’t make it up….

  5. There was a guy interviewed on Jeff Randall Sky News last week. Interviewer said (not Jeff, the other one) ‘the Greek economy will stop shrinking’ and was interrupted by his guest who said ‘Why should it ? Current policies are pure poison for it’. He is spot on. There only hope is to leave the Euro, devalue and hopefully rebuild their export markets and tourist trade, which was down this year. The whole Euro experiment is a complete and utter disaster.

  6. Little Bopeep is losing sleep
    Her temper is growing shorter
    This wandering frau is wondering how
    She’d deal with the Greeks if they fought her

    But little Bopeep is in too deep
    Her foot is stuck in the netting
    They stand and stare at the Folies Bergere
    And Francois is already sweating

    My euros are safe from this Osti waif
    I’ve taken the trouble to hide ‘em
    I favour the Swiss when I’m taking the piss
    Some friends of mine already tried them

    The cancan is playing the crowd are all swaying
    They’re wondering when it will topple
    If they turn up the heat I’ll be quick on my feet
    I know how to stay out of trouble

    Dame Evadne Venisonsausage (55 cwt)

      • @Nick: Interestingly, WordPress doesn’t seem to support music notation – I guess you need Musicpress for that.. The original melody is a possibility and can be found in Gammer Gurton’s Garland or The Nursery Parnassus 1810; it is in 6/8 time. In this instance I would suggest bouzouki and leather euphonium accompaniment from the oblique position. However, since it’s Big Fat Benny singing perhaps it should be a rap – preferably one he can’t beat!

  7. Not sure if OT – but, it’s EU, has to do with chucking our money all over the place and it ties in nicely with the pension provision for our own dear Lord Bichard below:

    “EU: Simply cash in by resignation

    Whereas Joe Public can hardly make ends meet with honest work, in the EU it is sufficient to just step down and then look forward to enjoying a pleasant transitional allowance.

    (From Etienne Noir)

    Could this also happen in your firm? Hardly. But in the EU, the rule is that once you have been a part of the establishment, you are not simply dropped. At least not financially. And, nicely bedded on a thick wad of thousands per month, the EU-life can also be endured quite well – even without a job. After all, one can now also profit handsomely from the leisure time. Maybe give a few lectures here and there, perhaps write a book?

    John Dalli (photo above) comes from Malta and has, since February 2010, been a Member of the European Commission under the (Ex) Maoist José Manuel Durao Barroso, in which he served as the European Commissioner with responsibility for Health and Consumer Protection. Dalli has now resigned. The reason for this is apparently accusations of corruption. Supposedly, as reported by the Handelsblatt, the Malteser is involved in a corruption scandal with the tobacco industry. A whopping 10 million is said to have been offered to him for an obliging law. In the event of a “success”, then an additional 50 million should flow. Not a bad trade for the Commissioner. However, Dalli vehemently denies all allegations. But his resignation was handed in anyway.

    But Dalli will be falling softly. Until early 2015 he will collect 9,300 euros a month, as the press reported. Then, in 2013 he is 65 years old, he can look forward to his pension. This amounts to, for two and a half years of “work” in the EU, a very pleasant 2,356 euros per month. A comfortable end to a career. What are likely to be the (future) pensions of many citizens who, after 45 years of hard work, go into retirement?”

    As PI contributor ‘unrein’ commented about his transitional salary:

    “…. which is only a slack 45% of what he has collected so far: € 20,667.20 per month (as, of course, do all other EU commissioners also)

    Broken up copy & paste link:

    http:
    //www.pi-news.net/
    2012/10/eu-einfach-per-rucktritt-abkassieren/

  8. No sweat , as Tsipras said : if there is a government tomorrow that says “thanks no more bail out money we don’t need them” they -the europeans – will force us to take them.

    • Zeus, thanks for pointing to this (and yes the video is indeed sureal).
      As to elections again before Xmas or not…..
      I think no. Not if it goes according to The Cult plans. None of the important players wants elections now (not even Syriza).
      But the accident is always possible. The present political/social environment is “moving sands”.

  9. Just who will the Greeks accuse if and when they leave the Euro and revert to a much devalued Drachma that will, in the short term certainly make them even worse off individually?

    As a softie I certainly feel for the masses of struggling Greeks and would find it near impossible to look them in the eye, but unfortunately they have lived beyond their means for too long, mainly funded by foreign money.

    Politicians the world over love to have ‘legacies’ that involve spending large quantities of other peoples money.

    Politicians do not have statues erected in their memory for saving money.

    The Greek tragedy is I suspect going to be followed by a number of other countries, as too many countries are all adopting the same strategy, ie. trying to keep the value of their currency down so that they can monetise their national debt and supposedly also making their exporters more competitive.

    Finally I suspect when all these CB’s try and unwind their bloated asset purchases, due to their varying QE ploys there will find far fewer willing buyers for them certainly at the prices they bought all the variable quality so called paper assets.

    I have found, to my cost that the the front entrance is always much more enticing than the very small back door exit.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s