Three Parties accused by bookies & pollsters
THE MEDIA & POLLSTERS ALSO PLAY GAMES. The media all have political agendas, and all bow very easily to Secret Services pressure. In turn, pollsters have their services to sell….and thus seek out the maximum controversy in reporting their findings. The headline I wrote yesterday at the head of this piece applies perfectly to this morning’s lead “story” in The Times, that the YouGov MRP study shows ‘the election is going down to the wire’.
It is doing no such thing. MRP has a good track record, and its median forecast is that the Conservatives will get a majority of 39 seats. Ten days ago I predicted somewhere between 30-90 seats. I have not seen any evidence suggesting I need a change of mind….although such evidence may come to light afterwards….as it so often does.
Yet The Times leads with ‘Brexit Party could lose Tories 18 seats’. As Nigel Farage’s army has already been booted out of the safe and marginal seats, it should be clear to all reasonably well-ordered cerebral material that the boys in Blue don’t need these seats to obtain a working majority. Boris is not going to lose 18 seats on the basis of, say, 15% of 2.5% of the population.
It is in the interests of Boris Johnson and the unelected blocist global model he supports to destroy Corbynism and humiliate Farage. Whether you or I like that or not, it is not the way our security services and media should behave. It is more than a perversion of democracy: it is an inversion of democracy.
You read it here first….
I have the sense that I might be a little late to this party, but having received several accusations of Nixon-style dirty electoral tricks over the last ten days, I now think the least I can do is air them, and see what response the blogosphere has in terms of more solid evidence.
The first point to make is that all three of the ‘main’ UK Parties – LibDem, Tory and Labour – are implicated. No Left > Centre < Right axe is being ground here.
The second thing to point out is that the rumoured practice – dubbed ‘crowdfilling’ – stretches across bookmakers’ odds, fake local polls and deliberate attempts to pervert genuine opinion polls.
Finally, the allegations I’ve received come from both employees in the professions involved, and ordinary members of the public. I have in fact already dismissed two accusations as pretty obviously bonkers. Others are less easy to reject.
I have received three reports of fake polls being quoted by candidates, all of them Liberal Democrats in three different constituencies.
In turn, I have two uncolluded reports, involving one major turf accountant brand, of “suspiciously heavy bets” being laid specifically in relation to Jeremy Corbyn’s approval rating. This coincides with an obvious social media campaign over the last two days designed to make the Labour leader “appear more popular” than he is; there is no doubt that the latter campaign has been devised and launched by Momentum. Whether those Labour troops are in any way involved in the betting odds manipulation is unknown.
As it happens, Corbyn’s approval ratings have improved this week.
Momentum also stands accused of “hanging around known pollster street-based activities” in the hope of being recruited – the idea being to pose as an apolitical voter switching to Labour. The West Bromwich constituency is one venue mentioned in these reports. There are in turn accounts of Tory activists in Dominic Raab’s constituency pulling similar stunts. A third marginal is Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford, where Labour stalwart Yvette Cooper has a massive majority. Two complaints have emanated from Cooper’s seat, which is felt by some to be in danger given the very high referendum leave majority in 2016.
Finally, one serious commentator (whose story has been spiked) claims to have seen a Team Boris memo stressing the need to push harder for a bigger Tory majority as the best way to keep the Conservative Remainer wing in check. In a process that began last Thursday, the Prime Minister has lost no opportunity to stress that the election “is not in the bag yet”, and has in recent days focused on scare-mongering in Midlands seats targeted for Tory gains, where he has blatantly exaggerated the ‘Labour is closing the gap’ narrative. Two Westminster sources, however, call this “a sensible defensive move given rumours of continuing electoral fraud in those seats”.
The latest big-sample data collation poll this morning shows Boris Johnson being returned with a 28 seat majority – very close to my lowest estimate of 30. At this late stage, the level of turnout will decide where in the 30-90 range the Conservatives wind up. Two consideration here:
First, all past opinion studies have shown consistently that Conservative/Brexiteer voters are considerable more likely to vote than Labour.
Second, the current weather forecast is for tomorrow to be ‘a wet and windy day for all parts of the UK, with the rain not clearing until very late on’. It adds, ‘…snow is likely at times on northern hills with very strong winds…There is likely to be travel disruption because of this’.
I still think the Tories will get a majority of at least 30 seats, and probably more.
I think the best – perhaps the only – thing I can say about the outcome is, given the econo-fiscal meltdown so clearly coming down the road, a hung Parliament would be the worst of all worlds. But the allegations of corrupt hanky-panky flying about depress me still further….and convince me I was right not to vote. I have felt completely disenfranchised since 1979, and the current mob do not speak for me or my values in any way whatsoever.
Unless some form of radical, counter-culture movement can be formed beyond Westminster elections, Britain is morally and ethically doomed. Worst of all, I see no appetite among Britons for active involvement in such a thing.