With British exports doing well, 68% of Brits rejecting soft Brexit, and crises continuing to bedevil the EU, it is the Remainers who now find themselves democratically bankrupt.
But this isn’t going to stop the diehards from undermining the process.
If they persevere in this, the main beneficiaries could be UKIP and, oddly, Waspi.
The latest ONS trade data record that, since the EU referendum result, UK exports have increased by 11.4%. This is of course largely down to the cheaper Pound….a Forex position that bears little or no relation to reality, and an awful lot to (a) unrealistically pessimistic expectations by self-styled economists and (b) manipulated ECB support for the euro – now widely recognised as a basket-case currency among currency dealers.
With each month that passes, the UK sells less and less to the EU, and more than ever to other trading blocs and sovereigns around the world. Quite obviously, the likelihood is thus that, the more bandstanding, showboating and baseless financial demands the Brussels Babies indulge in, the longer the Bexit negotiations will take….and the stronger Britain’s bargaining position will be as time drags on.
So all in all (and yes, it is far too early to judge) it remains true that knee-jerks from Soros via Clinton and Obama to Hammond, Blair, Mandelson, Miliband, Juncker and the Financial Times have all been proved wrong in their dire predictions of certain and immediate disaster. I use the word ‘wrong’ advisedly, because they were obviously not gilding the lily in making those predictions, because of course Remainers like Alastair Campbell never lie. Only Leavers do that.
EU problems in turn do not help what’s left of the Remaindeer ‘case’. The eurozone has seen vast withdrawals of Dollar investment, Italy is economically hampered and fiscally threatened, African immigrants are still pouring across the Mediterranean, Poland is facing out Brussels on several dimensions, Hungary remains implacably opposed to the euro, QE has failed, ClubMed austerity has failed, and wherever you look beyond France and Germany, multicultural federalism is under attack.
The risible nonstop attempt by globalist, neoliberal media to hide these facts nevertheless continues (Google has become a disgrace in this respect since the referendum) as does the attempt by europhile spin doctors to suggest that Britain would vote to Remain if the 2016 epic was run again today.
However, a new and quantitatively solid study among 3,290 Brits (conducted by the London School of Economics and Oxford University) has finally demolished two of the great lies of the last year. First, that Theresa May needed an electoral mandate to give her a stronger bargaining position with the EU – the EU has never cared a fig for public opinion anyway, and it never will; and second, the Blair-Soros-Momentum codswallop about “the 48%” having been turned into a Remain majority since the referendum.
The study does this by reeling off irrefutable numbers to show there is massive support for Britain’s bargaining stance….and that it is the Remainers who are now – in every sense of the word – diminished. Those who talked tripe about racist Little Englanders are now become tribal Little Europeans.
These results indicate that
- Despite the impression given by press and politicians of a deeply divided nation, when voters think of the actual details of what they want from Brexit, Remainers and Leavers are not that distinct: generally, they lean towards a harder Brexit. Many Remain voters now largely agree that Brexit should mean the UK taking full control over its borders, leaving the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, and paying only a small “divorce bill” to the EU.
- 68% of Britons today would opt for hard over soft Brexit.
- Even many Remain voters say they feel that following their preferred Brexit approach would not respect the result of the 2016 referendum.
This is further clear signals that the Left in particular and the Whiteminster class in general are woefully out of touch with the British electorate.
A dearth of any digits on the pulse of the nation has never, of course, been any indicator of what the Remain hardcore, self-interested Nasties in Parliament, and the senior Civil Servants will try to get. And clearly, what they want to do is sabotage Brexit using all the tools available: fake news, spin, backstairs subterfuge….but above all, time.
In this context, the Blair-Hammond Witch project will discern one piece of good news in the data: although the overall findings will disappoint the anti-Brexit die-hards, the public currently seem not to care if the process takes several years. Leave voters would most prefer Brexit to be completed by 2019, but have no objection at all to a delay to 2021, and only by a slight margin oppose a delay as far as 2025.
By 2025, far more Leave voters will be dead than Remainers. Morbid as this point may seem, it is important: not just for Brexit, but also for British politics in general.
Without a UKIP standing idly by on the sidelines at the General Election (something I said from Day One was a catastrophic strategic error) there is no way Momentum Labour would’ve made the breakthrough it did. The assumption on the Left is that, next time, “one more heave” will see Jesus Corbyn sailing triumphantly into Ten Downing Street.
I have never believed that this Parliament will run its course: media idleness and the August silly-season have ensured that everyone’s eye has been taken off the ball of just how vulnerable the Conservative parliamentary “majority” is. There will be another General Election before 2022…..an election that could be triggered by any number of events in Ireland, on the European mainland, in the Muslim communities, via the banking sector, the Brexit negotiations, the growing Tory backbench rebellion on the subject of Waspi pension injustice, discussions about a new soft-Left UK Party, and even perhaps a challenge to Mother Theresa.
As and when that election happens – and equally, I severely doubt the ability of genuine Brexiteer negotiators to hit the March 2019 Article 50 deadline – the role of UKIP (and softened Tory policies) is going to be crucial in diluting Labour support via a drift towards Centre politics on the one hand, and hard Brexit on the other.
Two key decision areas – almost certainly being debated by the parties concerned right now – could change the outcome of both the election (and thus the kind of Brexit we get) dramatically:
- What Nigel Farage wants his future to be, and how concerted the UKIP effort to win back the drift to Labour is.
- What the Conservative Party eventually decides (if anything) to do about its ludicrous denialism on the subject of Waspi injustice…..a history of incompetent perfidy, I should add, in which Thatcherite, Blairite and Camerlot administrations all share a serious level of guilt.
Next time, Corbynista Momentum could face a revitalised UKIP (on a platform of “Don’t let the Left/Europhile Establishment ignore the People’s Brexit will”) a Tory Party pledged to restore existing pension rights, and a Centre ground within Labour desperate to see Jeremy of Nazareth crucified by electoral failure.
The simple Truth is that both a revived UKIP and Waspis happy with a Tory pension solution would sink Momentum Labour.
Everything in politics as we see it now in Europe demands a massive trade-off. For myself, I would be happy with a British electoral outcome in which Brussels, Remainers, the SNP, Hardline Tory neoliberals and Momentum found themselves marginalised. I would be considerably less at ease, however, with a strengthened Conservative Party faced by an even more divided Opposition.
Either (and both) of those results are entirely possible: but ultimately, my priorities here remain unchanged. They would be (in order) the UK’s freedom from amoral, dictatorial ideologues in NATO, Brussels and Frankfurt; a reverse for the intolerant forces of totalitarian socialism; a fair deal for Waspis; and longer term, heightened awareness of the need to devolve State and Business power to a level where a more Benthamite, entrepreneurial Britain can emerge.
As I stated in the last post here:
Real, universal tolerance starts when we value responsible individual fulfilment above any other consideration. It ends as soon as enough determined people embrace a systemic mass belief system.