François Fillon will be the Dead Duck candidate of the French Right, Marine Le Pen will be the Sitting Duck candidate of the French Far Right, and Emmanuel Macron will be the Donald Duck EUNATO/Soros winner. Situation normal.
Over the last 48 hours, the French media has made its view clear on François Fillon: only a monster show of support for your Sunday rally will save your cul, chum. “Defections from the Fillon camp continue to pile up” said one paper – an odd reflexive verb (s’amonceler) to use about people, given its suggestion that they might be walking out of camp and then throwing themselves onto a heap of bodies in a suicidal heure de gloire.
But the truth is that Fillon – mired in L’Affaire Penelope – won the Republican (formerly UMP) primaries, and so to all intents and purposes the French Right is stuck with him. Penelope is not, by the way, a mistress: she is Madame Fillon. This is not a sex scandal, as quite obviously French politicians do not have sex with their wives. Well that is, they do, but only if they can use the vous forme during the act, and thus fantasise about having sex with a stranger. François pulled that old MP fast one about hiring half his family to do constituency work and get paid, and this has been blown up by media manipulators unknown into a huge scandal. (To be fair, the alleged sums involved are in six figures)
Since last Thursday, however, Alain Juppé’s Invisible Man act has confirmed what most French think: he may be a former UMP Big Beast, but he has no desire to take Fillon’s place. An excellent cartoon in the regional paper Sud Ouest portrayed Juppé as a naked old man in front of a mirror, with a variety of costumes in a huge mound on the floor behind him. The caption read simply “Nothing left to wear”. Harsh but fair, I think.
As of this afternoon, I would guess that the Republican strife is over. In torrential rain, 130,000 French pitched up in Paris to cheer on a defiant François Fillon. He is – and will remain – the Republican candidate. The bad news is that, short of a political earthquake, he will be eliminated after the First Round of elections. This opening salvo will probably see Marine Le Pen win, closely followed by Emmanuel Macron – a man I would trust roughly as far as I could kick a bull elephant. According to the latest polls, Macron will then, in Round Two, walk it to the Elysée Palace by a margin of two to one. You couldn’t get a Hollywood film script like this past the initial ideas meeting, you really couldn’t.
But then, what I’ve described is the mainstream media/market research narrative. And as we all know, their reputation is in need of some Brasso…applied with aggressive elbow-grease.
This is a French Presidential election more complex – and open to more interpretations – than any I can remember. It is an election more full of dirty tricks than any I can recall. And as is now the way – with 24/7 global news and the rise of geopolitical politics – there are more fears than ever that at least a degree of outside interference is involved.
Three considerations are, I think, worthy of serious note:
- Some of the Groupthink is disturbingly similar to that which pertained during the US election and the UK Brexit referendum
- Ultra-Right candidate Marine Le Pen has been harassed by one government agency after another over “irregularities”….as has François Fillon. But despite this, her level of support is, I think, consistently understated in research
- The emergence of Macron as a pro-EU “radical” I find deeply suspicious, if only because he has huge and mysterious money behind him….all of which correlates very closely with the aims of the EUNATO/Soros agenda.
Perhaps the one cast-iron genuine element in this contest is the reality that the socialist French Left is dead in the water: whatever happens, no trustworthy defender of the French way of communitarian life is going to win. Not that Hollande defended much in that area: so flagrant was his display of gutless acquiescence in geopolitical/financial market attacks on the policies that elected him, within eighteen months he became the zero that had never been a hero.
His later dishonesty and petulance in turn rendered him perhaps the only President in history to face negative comment about having a complex love-life. For previous Elysée residents such had been almost a table stake; but as Valu in my local épicerie explained to me, “Leaders are still expected to have mistresses and bastards. Hollande’s problem is he isn’t a leader”. Again, harsh but fair.
Groupthink is apparent (as always) among the young, in that (in the absence of a Left) they have rushed to the cause of Emmanuel Macron. But this is reflected in research showing that Macron has by far the biggest quotient of disloyal bandwagon-hoppers. French youth beyond the alienated white-trash fringe largely rejects the very idea of Le Pen as a President: but will they turn up in Round Two to vote for a will o’ the wisp like Macron? I have my doubts – and this syndrome is what sunk both Clinton (where black voters stayed at home) and UK Remainers (where glib under-25 assumptions of certain victory led them to do the same).
I have watched Macron speak several times, but when it comes to who he really is, the kindest thing I can say is that finding out is like lassoing ether. He makes no secret of where his Establishment support lies, but this doesn’t come close to explaining the gigantic funding of his media emergence from nowhere. He is from the Left, but he rejects collectivism. He has some Rightist ideas, but rejects Fillon’s enthusiasm for l’Anglo-Saxonisme. He is firmly pro-EU, but flirts with those who believe it needs radical reform.
He is, on paper, the perfect Third Way Brussels-Soros President: he blocks the Frexit far Right, he appeases the Left, and he embraces supra-national globalism. In that context, it is hard not to suspect that much of the paper behind him also features George Washington’s image. And for a Brit, it’s very hard not to see him as Antoine Blair.
But de things that yo liable to read in de libralBible, dey ain’t nessarily so.
The figures for the Second Round that give Macron a 62 to 38 per cent lead over Le Pen are based on so many assumptions, in my opinion they cannot at the moment be taken seriously. I’ve already posted to the effect that I think Le Pen has a far steeper mountain to climb than either the Brexiteers or Trump. But in this case, we need to take into account that first, Macron is a candidate who, if properly interrogated in the heat of Round Two, could well be revealed as a stooge; second, if you add the instability of his support to how unattractive he appears to many whose favourites fell at the first fence, then the anti-Le Pen vote may well abstain; and third, foreign media especially fail to understand the links Marine has established with many syndicalists – ie, ordinary Trade Union members. A huge number of Left voters who can see through Macron will defect to Le Pen.
Ironically, I suspect it’s national pride that will do for the ultra-nationalist Marine Le Pen in the end. Talking to a broad spectrum of French friends, I sense very strongly that to have a ‘Petite Francaise’ bigot (as in Little Englander) representing them as Head of State in the Councils of Europe would be unacceptable. My own problem with Marine is that I do indeed see her as worse than a patriot: while her anti-EU stance is well-reasoned, as a Sovereign CEO in an unstable Europe, I think she could become a catalyst for both destructive and dictatorial policies. I also find her ideas on how to combat Islamist extremism ill-formed beyond a blanket “send them all home”. The question arises as to where “home” is…and who really wants to take in citizens suffused with the ardour of fundamentalist certainty in a religion riven with insane tribal loyalties.
My bottom line is that I think Macron will win, but the margin will be more like 55/45 – based on a relatively small turnout.
One final point a tad off-topic. During the run-up to the election here, I’ve been a regular viewer of France24 news in English. The station is available on Freesat, and all I can say is that it is utterly and slavishly on-message with the oddly allied neocon/liberal/globalist narrative. More than this, France24 displays a casual bias so offensive to the open-minded, it makes a complete mockery of the concept of journalistic freedom.
Le Pen is described as ‘a sinking ship’, Fillon as ‘an unrepentant crook’, and Trump as a non-stop purveyor of fake news. Completely absent from its programming is any mention of the Paris riots, Swedish violence, or questions about how Macron has suddenly gone from nowhere to being the front runner in three weeks flat.
France 24 is wholly owned by the French Government. According to its own website, the channel reaches more than 250 million TV households, and has 14 million monthly Internet users as well as 6.5 million followers on social networks. Its strapline is ‘Liberté, Egalité, Actualité’. The missing word there is Fraternité.