Emmanuel Macron’s Presidential candidacy – and his new Party En Marche! – represent what appears to be a revolution in French politics. But all may not be as it seems: to some, it looks like superficial marketing; to others, it begs the question, “Who’s funding all this?”
A great many pro-Trump commentators in the West are extrapolating from the UK Brexit and US Presidential results, and predicting a major upset in France that will – they believe – deliver the Presidency here to Marine LePen.
But I suspect their expectations are based on the flawed belief that the neocon globalists and EU Imperialists intend to just sit back and watch it happen. For those watching events closely, it looks very much like this isn’t the case.
The person central to their fight-back is a soi-disant maverick called Emmanuel Macron. In the last 15 days here, he has changed everything. But it is hard not so see EU machinations in his candidacy. The simple truth is he is a social democrat, rabidly pro-EU guy distancing himself from the Parti Socialiste – with whom he served under François ‘Plat écran’ Hollande – but adopting all the “populist” anti-Establishment appeal of Trump, LePen and Wilders, minus only the nasty bits.
He is exactly what Brussels needs – a sort of Federalist Farage, if you can imagine such a thing. All up, it’s a very, very clever piece of marketing insight: give France’s devastated Left somewhere respectable to go, and – in the light of the Right’s candidate Fillon struggling with scandal – give the anti-LePen vote a boost in the second round.
The curious thing is, this could backfire against the Euronauts, and sweep LePen’s Front National into power – or stop Marine LePen in her tracks.
It all depends (as always with contemporary elections) on, first, how one interprets the numbers….while remembering that a lot of those numbers are human beings who often know better than politicians what’s ‘good’ for them; second, how the various players cope with the media pressure; and third, game-changing events.
First, the numbers. Although Fillon did the right thing in being honest about his financial nepotism, he is still hovering in the fairly hopeless 17-20% area. His poor showing is not, I think, public disgust at his familial corruption….although it was very substantial: the French are satirically sanguine about their politicians’ foibles. Rather, I suspect two other factors acting against him: his unabashed admiration for Reaganomics – always a weakness in France; and second, as a former Prime Minister, his association with the past as personified by Nicolas Sarkozy. There is something of “Yesterday’s Man” about Fillon….summed up I think in one breaking poll that shows 7 out of 10 French voters saying he should bow out of the race now.
But if the French do tournent ses dos on Fillon, then they are pushing Emannuel Macron to front-runner status with astonishing enthusiasm. According to an opinion poll from IFOP, Macron would trounce allcomers in a May 7th run-off, with 64% compared to LePen on 36%.
However, as a Rosbif observer of French politics, I have come to respect LePen’s ability to launch counter-attacks in a crisis. She was on French TV last night in a two-hour special, and whatever one thinks of the more archaic dimensions of her outlook, she is spectacularly convincing on the subject of what a complete disaster for almost everyone (except Germany) the euro single currency has been.
With the stratospheric emergence of Macron, LePen now has a mountain to climb.
There is little doubt in my mind that – as pertained during the Brexit vote – the Euronaut federalists will leave no unexploded turds revealed in their desperate attempts to keep the Brussels-Berlin-Frankfurt circus on the road. But it’s obvious from today’s developments alone that Greece is once more threatening a mass breakout…and Draghi’s ECB will struggle to keep the Italian mess under control. Remember: there are fully three months to go to the run-off.
The best – perhaps only – chance LePen’s supporters now have is to identify Macron as the perfidiously hidden candidate of Brussels and its antidemocratic globalist forces.
I have a Brussels source (usually reliable) who claims that both the accusations against Fillon’s wife (tax evasion on a role she never fulfilled in any real sense) and LePen herself (misuse of EU funds) originated in that city. This source also claims there is CIA involvement in the disinformation campaign.
I’m on the record over and over as saying that Truth is diced, mixed with Lies and then served up as cing étoiles nouvelle cuisine as a matter of course in 2017.
But earlier this afternoon, a medium-grade Washington Slogger unconnected to the first source said he was sure that both CIA money and Black Arts are now “massively involved” in turning the French election in favour of a “bet the farm” EUNATO candidate.
The next month will tell us more. Stay tuned.