…..and we’re all in for a bad time.
We may have reached that stage in the long and ludicrous history of Homo sapiens wherein every event is only important in terms of its effect on the global markets in particular, and business in general. Brexit was seen entirely in that context – except by the British Left, who saw it as a full frontal attack on their human right to remain in a European Union where there are no human rights in practice, place, action or Greece. But events way beyond any of that are about to drown out any real debate.
As the Hillary & Donald Show crept nearer to reality last night, the Dow plunged, while the Mexican peso dived on the possibility that after November, its citizens might have to scale walls as well as swim rivers in order to get into the Land of the Free.
But Clinton seemed to have won on points (so the early US editions suggest) and thus the Peso rose again. Trump, naturally, thought he had won….and that his microphone was either broken or had been sabotaged. Shares in Unidek Microphones fell on the news, but Consolidated Toupées held firm.
The US might as well go the whole hog and have each candidate sponsored by multinational business, bourses and banks. The Candidates’ job would then be to reassure the franchises it really cares about by tying policy ideas to their sector.
“If I build a Wall from El Paso to Key Largo,” says Trump, “this will produce a 12% boost nationally to the construction industry, and if it’s successful, I shall roll out the Wall thing and build another one right along the Canadian border, with built-in condos to house all the poor folks – and give the rich folks another tick up in their property values, while persuading the NYSE that the recovery really is under way at last”.
Clinton’s counter could, however, be a game-changer:
“Listen up folks, we all know there’s only one way out of this mess, and that’s to put the US economy on a war footing. Once elected, I shall be starting wars in Hungary, Poland, Iran, Russia, Turkey, Italy, the Philippines and Spain, as well as invading Scotland in order to support the 48%, and free up Rangers supporters to sack the Vatican. You won’t be footing the bill for the war footing, only the taxpayers will be doing that: you will be sacrificing nothing more than the lives of your children. Once we reintroduce the Draft, they’ll get three squares a day and a really nifty uniform to wear. Donald Trump’s Canadian condos offer an easy way out for Commie draft dodgers, so they will be pulled down, giving an 82% boost to the demolition sector.”
If you think all the above to be mad, last weekend, Shinzo Abe fingered Brexit as the biggest downside to the global economic outlook. This from the author of a fiscal strategy whose creditors (the biggest group in the world) are being invited to pay for the privilege of increasing that debt still further.
Apparently, in pointing out this kind of thing I am “trivialising” global economics. I am at a loss to understand why it needs any help from me.
Deutsche Bank has now reached that point where whatever it does or says will make things worse. Its senior executive officers continue to insist that there is no problem, that it hasn’t asked Berlin for a bailout, and that its capitalisation is fine. The markets thus conclude that DB’s management is off with the fairies, and slams the share price, making the capitalisation issue even more acute.
The markets then ask will there be a rights issue to get the capitalisation back up again, and the Deutschers say nein nein nein nein, but the Wall Street Journal then writes a piece about “fears of capital raising”, and this makes things look even worse for the already beleaguered shareholders, who decide to cut their losses and run. Frau Doktor Mirakle then intervenes to say there will be no Bundesbailout: that confirms the very worst fears of the doubly-incontinent neurotics in the markets. The price drops further, and we can expect more bloodshed today (Tuesday).
So just to summarise the situation here, if DB doesn’t ask for aid, it is negligent; if it does ask for aid, it is in very deep trouble; and if the aid is then denied, it is doomed. Such is the intricately intelligent nature of mad banks exposed to market mania in the context of political leaders painted into a corner. If you have lots of capital despite being so exposed, that’s a lot of capital at risk, so let’s get outta here. Now look – there’s a lot of investors over there who were over here where we are. They must know something we don’t, so let’s get outta here and go over there. And the Government says whooaaaa, we’re not going there, we’re just gonna watch from here.
You might call this debunking de banker debacle of debased debauchery when de Doktor Merkel dunked in de Nile by de migrant debate. It all feels a bit derivative (Gerritt?) of Lehman.
The EU strategy in the face of four very exposed banks – Deutsche, Dei Peischi, one British bank and another in Spain – is the template designed by failed Dutch hairdresser Jereboam Dieselbung and his twisted Dalek controller, Wildgang Schicklegrüber. This is called ‘bailin’ – which is different to ‘bailout’.
A bailout is where the taxpayers pick up the tab, and even when there is no money left at all, more money is created to stabilise the bank. There is no known taxpayer in Europe that isn’t also a bank depositor.
A bailin is where the bank’s depositors pick up the tab, and lose all their money even when they don’t have any in the first place…which is used to stabilise the bank. There is no known bank depositor in Europe who isn’t also a taxpayer.
I hope that clears things up at the start of the day, so let’s get to it folks: work harder for longer for less, lose all your money and your welfare entitlements….and be thankful that we’re all in the same boat.
The Slog 