BREXIT: Now the Remaindeers resort to poll disinformation

mesnipIn a remarkable piece of ‘content for sale’ this morning, the Daily Telegraph leads with a story about the Brexiteers ‘falling behind by 13 points’ – with men and older older people switching to the Remainder herd. As a former member of the Market Research Society (MRS), The Slog deconstructs this piece of naked propaganda clearly orchestrated by ‘Sir’ Lynton Crosby.

The “news” that the Remaindeers are shown as opening up a 13% lead in the Brexit referendum will probably make for a good day on the FTSE: more “favourable” polls in recent days have seen Sterling back at 1.29 to the euro. If that trend sticks until polling day in a month’s time, we can expect the rate to be back up at 1.35 within weeks, if not days. So strong is the case for Remain, allegedly, our currency will strengthen against the disaster of a currency that is running the eurozone ragged. There’s no logic to any of it.

The only problem for the Remaindeers is that the analysis of the ORB study is totally misleading.

I long ago gave up on the Telegraph ever giving an objective view on anything…with the exception of two writers on the business and finance pages. But in publishing this travesty today, the Telegraph has surpassed itself: so blatant is the manipulation of the data, it’s up there with the infamous Zinoviev letter of 1924….a fake published by the Daily Mail – who else?

First up, ORB used a telephone methodology – on fixed lines. The bias there is beyond belief, and the method not one I take seriously. The weightings on ORB research I always find odd.

Secondly, the sample size is a measly 800 people. The margin of error on that number isn’t particularly large, but once you start to break it down into sub-cells of demographics and region, any analyst is in dangerous waters reaching conclusions about anything.

Yet that is exactly what the Telegraph has done.

Or to be more accurate, it’s what Lynton Crosby – who seems to have virtually dictated this article as a whole – has done. Lest we forget, Crosby is the Aussie who works for the Remaindeers on electoral strategy.

This is the propagandised piffle Crosby offers us:

“The Remain campaign, according to the latest ORB Telegraph poll, continues to strengthen its position among voters with another week of effective campaigning while the Leave campaign dwindles, having failed to quell ongoing concerns about the financial and economic consequences of a Brexit.

“This week’s ORB poll suggests that the Remain campaign is beginning to really work. Its vote share has risen by three points to 58 per cent among all voters, opening up a sizeable 20-point lead. When taking into account likelihood to vote, Remain’s position has improved by four points to 55 per cent while Leave has fallen by three points to 42 per cent amongst definite voters.”

LCrosbyThe man in charge of the Remaindeer campaign saying “the campaign is really beginning to work” comes under the heading of “he would say that”. But the hokum charts refer to 35% of this and 20 point leads over that (20?) on sample bases unlikely to be more than 75 respondents. The error margin on 75 is so big as to be pointless for any kind of conclusion. And if you think he looks shifty in that shot, well….on the basis of this hype, he very clearly is.


Let’s leave this Down Under Drivel and look objectively at the poll of polls data. This too is tricky to read because of the methodology differences and weighting ideologies the different companies have. But I’ve annotated the list to point up some obvious factors that negate the entire Daily Crosbygraph codswallop:

Brexpop

I’m sorry if this looks daunting, but it isn’t really.

Starting with the right-hand column, the red circles around ORB studies, you can see that 2 out of 3 have 800 respondents….as did the third one out today. They all show big leads for Remain. The one where ORB uses 2,000 respondents, however, shows that just three weeks ago, it was a 50:50 dead heat….because in this study, ORB used forced choice questions.

The green rectangles highlight the other smaller samples…. all of which show a bigger Remain lead.

But look at the blue rectangles – where we have samples 50% or more larger in size – and they too  show much closer results – a 4% margin, with 16% still undecided. The Opinium study of May 19th (just five days ago) means Crosby & Co are trying to persuade us that – in a week during which Cameron performed badly on TV, and the eurozone news was uniformly awful – the Brexiteers lost 9 point of popularity. It is incredible – and should be treated as such.

The reality is that, from the off, ORB’s small sample surveys using phone methods have been the rogue elephants in the room.

Now look to the left hand side’s black rectangles, where I’ve grouped all the studies using sample sizes from 1650 to 3,378. This tells a story 180° opposite to the Lynton Crosby narrative.

Whereas ORB consistently shows very small numbers of undecideds, all the larger studies show numbers ranging from 11 to 19. Whereas ORB consistently shows Remain in the lead, all the others show 2-4% differences either way. The 5-day old Opinium study says 16% remain undecided.

Very little has changed over the month, and if anything it is the Remaindeers that seem to be stuck in the mud between 42-44. Far from Brexit support dwindling, there is still absolutely everything to play for.

Lynton Crosby is not a market researcher, he is a marketing communications electioneer: his job is to persuade effectively, not tell the Truth. The latest ORB poll is flawed, and the beknighted Digger has compounded the crime by hyping the results to be something, when in fact they mean precisely nothing. His mission is to create a self-fulfilling snowball effect without snow. Voters should ignore him, and weigh the arguments for themselves.

Yesterday at The Slog: HMS UK tug pulled down by sinking SS Eutanic

50 thoughts on “BREXIT: Now the Remaindeers resort to poll disinformation

  1. Certainly true about the Telegraph in general. But a quick look at the offerings of all their major columnists reveal the newspaper has hitherto been relentlessly pro-Brexit. So either they are playing a high-risk game here of whipping up the Brexit vote – or they can see the writing is on the wall and don’t want to be left high and dry.

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  2. How many more knighthoods are on offer to do the Prime Ministers bidding?
    Would you want the touch of cold steel on your shoulder, or would your conscience decline the offer of a blade that has touched countless other government whores?

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  3. The Memsahib is an aficionado of ‘The Chase’ – an afternoon quiz show with which some Sloggers may be familiar. For those who are not, contestants answer a series of General Knowledge questions and build up a fund of money usually between £1000-£8000 or so. They then face the Chaser to defend that sum and place it in the team’s coffers; they are offered three alternatives: a lesser sum, sometimes a minus figure, to make it easier to get back to the team (robbing the previous contestants of the results of their hard work – future MPs there if I’m any judge), the sum they have achieved or a very much larger sum which is harder to get but worth the effort. They then take ‘advice’ from the team as to what they should do. I always know when some poor sap has folded and taken the minus figure because I can hear the Memsahib’s stentorian bellow even when I’m at the bottom of the garden. This week – and here you will be pleased to read that I am approaching the subject to hand – a young lass advised one of her team mates to take the derisory offer of £1000 and get back to the team. It was obvious that she was preparing the ground for what would turn out to be one of the most craven acts in the annals of the show and, sure enough, when it came to her turn she chose a minus figure of particular wretchedness to return to the team … who were, needless to say, overjoyed by her decision.

    I am grateful for John’s analysis because it proves mathematically what I suspected to be the case but felt unable to explain. My suspicion is that the ground is being prepared for one of the most underhanded, immoral and blatant examples of political skulduggery we will have been privileged to witness in recent years. This referendum has already been bought and paid for and the only question in my mind is just how blatant the vote-rigging will be. This dribble of pro-Remain polls is clearly a diversion and it is not happening by chance. In my happy peregrinations about the SW of England I can honestly say that I have met just one person who has voiced his support for the EU. He has a small but profitable company which does a fair bit of work on the Continent and he’s concerned that his paperwork may get a bit more complicated if we vote to leave. Not a great defence, I grant you, when one considers what may be lost forever if the EU is successful … but at least he’s honest. Everyone else, without exception, is quite vocal and determined in their opposition to the EU in general and to Camerlot in particular.

    There is a growing tide of anger out there which the fools in Brussels, Berlin and Westminster seem incapable of acknowledging. They ignore it at their peril.

    Liked by 7 people

  4. You would have thought that with the Chancellor predicting an 18% fall in house prices with Brexit > Remain, the young folk with aspirations to buy a property would be positively chomping at the bit to vote Brexit! I’d hate to think that older home-owners purporting now to favour Remain have sold their Birthright and that of their children for a mess of potage a la Osborne…..

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  5. Are we suggesting that a corrupt government – that is to say, the British government – has actually stooped to corruption in order to get their way?

    An expenses scandal by any other name would smell as horrid.

    Liked by 2 people

  6. For those with long memories, this is a rerun of the 1970 GE, where the polls unanimously predicted a Labour victory, until some duff trade figures 2 days before the vote ushered a bemused Grocer into Number 10. As the Scottish referendum showed, the electorate does not really focus on the issue until 10 days before the vote(June23), and the government propaganda machine will soon be silent, by law. It will only take one awful refugee boat disaster in June to remind the ‘undecideds’ that the issue is not Easyjet ticket prices, mobile phone charges on holiday,a one year recession, or a reduction in GDP in 2030, but uncontrolled IMMIGRATION. My money is on a Pyrrhic victory for CMD on the big day ( 51-49) and his finding that a leadership challenge gives him time to get used to Samcam’s new car.

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  7. Paul Craig Roberts posted an extremely interesting take on the machinations taking place. I’m willing to bet over 99% of Britons are not aware of this and that includes those wishing to Brexit:
    http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2016/05/05/somnolent-europe-russia-and-china-paul-craig-roberts/

    Personally, I watched the BBC’s massacre of Martin Durkin’s “Brexit The Movie” in which when asked why he made the movie, they all talked over him so that nobody could hear what he was saying. You can always count on the BBC for betraying their viewers. Anyway, after that I just had to see the movie and I’m glad I did because it exposes in no uncertain terms why remaining will be the kiss of death for the UK.

    The remainders will be comprised largely of foreigners living in Britain who naturally fear they may lose the protection afforded to them by the EU, and of course there’s the brainwashed who rely on mainstream media for all their news. But what nobody has really understood is why it is so important for the elites that Brexit doesn’t happen.

    First off, the EU scam is all about implementation of Agenda 2030 which is already well on course to meet its defined goals, all of which are tied to depopulation. Second, no single country may be allowed to exit and Britain would be the worst possible. Why? Because, if Britain got out it would set the precedent for all the others to give the “V” for victory sign to the EU. The house of cards would rapidly come tumbling down as each European state took back control of its sovereignty. But that’s not all! Coming out of the EU would likely prevent NATO from exercising American hegemony on our peaceful neighbour and as such, avoid the up and coming next world war.

    Nonetheless, as we saw with Greece, Portugal, and Scotland, the vote will almost definitely be rigged so that Briny remains. I am surprised John has not yet commented on the sudden onslaught of postal votes claimed to have swung the vote away from the extreme right in Austria yesterday. I mean, what are the chances?!?!

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  8. Whichever way the actual poll goes, the issue will not go away, and the Tory party will split asunder, with Cameron the high profile casulty. I do find these polls rather odd, generating fear for Remain that it’s “in the bag”, and turnout will be low. Turnout is the key, and low turnout will be good for Leave. I was ambivalent about whether we should leave or remain, but the smirking arrogance of Remain has swung my vote in favour of Leave. As Steve Hilton says, it all boils down to the simple question “who do you want to decide Britain’s fate in the future?”. All other issues follow from that.

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  9. @Caratacus

    Superb comment and I agree, the polls showing a lead for Remain are preparing the ground for a stolen election. I maintain that if exit polls are not conducted, (and perhaps even if they are), the Government will be free to manufacture a close win for the Remain camp regardless of the actual votes cast. I believe our corporate and U.S. masters will stop at nothing to keep us in the EU, even to the extent of committing electoral fraud – the sociopaths in power have done much worse in their pursuit of the ends. I think the well known quote from the great democrat Joseph Stalin would be appropriate at this point.

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  10. “I mean, what ARE the chances?!?!”

    The high profile son of a prominent British politician, taking part in an attempted coup d etat, to seize the territory of Africa’s “New Kuwait”.
    I’ll vote out, knowing that the process is likely to have been manipulated.

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  11. @Sway T

    Sorry, just read your comment re. Austria. Postal votes may be their weapon of choice if such are allowed in the Brexit vote. Thanks for the link to the excellent P.C.R. article, I should visit his site more often.

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  12. my circle is quite small but i,ve spoken to many of them and this topic is usually mentioned in dispatches not one is a remainder!,

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  13. As PCR states in the article, ‘The British people will be either decieved or overridden.
    It is what I have said all along. It will be overridden on the grounds of ‘National Security’ should the unlikey event that the are unable to rig the ballot box.
    What a monster Washington is.

    Liked by 2 people

  14. An economic collapse has been deliberately engineered. Only a complete fool would believe they made a genuine mistake when they turned on the printing presses to flood us with fiat toilet paper as a means to restart the economy.

    The grand collapse will more than likely happen before Autumn. No EU member must be allowed to survive the devastation. That’s another key reason why the UK cannot leave.

    While the bastards have been busy arranging all their chess pieces on the board in preparation for their ‘checkmate’, the lemmings have been equally busy watching bollocks on the telly and checking their smart phones for the potential arrival of another text message.

    Nobody wants to know what’s really going down because the message isn’t positive enough. The head-in-the-sand technique works best for them … just like it did for those boarding the trains some 80+ years back.

    What frightens me most is that today’s youth have no idea what life was like 30 or 40 years ago. They have no reference point so they think that all this nonsense is perfectly normal and they won’t lift a finger to fight against it.

    Liked by 4 people

  15. Remember the Irish vote a few years ago? The one where they voted the wrong way the first time and so had to vote again. I’m sure it was on the Slog’s site that there was an article about ballot boxes going missing, but might have been another blog. IIRC there was a even a couple of photos of dodgy geezers chucking boxes in the back of a van, that were never seen again…
    Without micro-chipping each and every ballot box (fairly simple) there are some boxes from some areas that will “go missing”.

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  16. …… and the College of Pontiffs warned that Brexit would bring forth fire and brimstone, and that famine would follow the feast !

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  17. @kfc1404
    Knowing the tactics being used to prop-up the system, I think it is crazy attempting to give a precise date for economic collapse. It has been happening for some time now, sort of like a slow-motion train wreck. At a certain point, it will go into overdrive as it has in Greece, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela. Those countries offer us a peek into the looking glass.

    It’s not really a question of who to believe because you already know that collapse is inevitable. You just don’t know when, nor what the trigger will be. At the moment it looks like Deutsche Bank and its monstrous derivatives exposure may be the trigger but so many things are in the melting pot that something else could suddenly appear from nowhere.

    @Salford Lad
    Escobar is right on the money. Just look at the last paragraph on Defence in today’s Telegraph article! I quote:
    Leave:
    Britain could soon be asked to contribute to a EU Army, with reports suggesting Angela Merkel may demand the Prime Minister’s approval in return for other concessions. That would erode the UK’s independent military force and should be opposed.

    Stay:
    European countries together are facing the threats from Isil and a resurgent Russia. Working together to combat these challenges is best – an effort that would be undermined if Britain turns its back on the EU.

    The propaganda against Russia is endless. There are plenty who know it is just lies so I wonder how many Europeans will either refuse to fight the Russians or end up fighting on their side when push comes to shove? Isn’t that one of the main motives for the EU deciding it needs its own ‘peace-keeping force’?

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  18. Phone polls are only a small sample and the pollsters chose the recipients and the questions, and herein lies the ability to manipulate the answer they want. Asking multiple questions, allows for greater variability in the final % result.

    On-line polls are limited in the number of questions asked and newspaper polls conducted at the end of articles are restricted to three questions at the most. When it comes to a straight question IN or OUT, The OUTS rate a minimum 70%.
    So Crosby and the ORB poll know that in the psychological warfare battle they have tackle the older electorate and persuade them the LEAVE vote is lost, which of course it is not.

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  19. Goldman Sachs $700k donation to the newspapers is really working wonders … now where are GS based again?
    Is this the same GS that fiddled the books on Greece and created that disaster? Oh yeah forgot that part.

    So the $700K dollar question ?(cheapskates should be a million) Does GS have a conflict of interest insider trading and all just like Deutschebank practices with the UK reamining in the EU although it does not as an appointee represent the UK population at all.

    JW – BREMAIN will win because the appointeeslike GS / Cameron / Sainsbury’s too say so this is a guy falsifying the figures now because in the end it has to be close so they can say they won. If the true opinion was known THEY COULD NEVER FAKE A BREMAIN. I for one will never, ever buy from Sainsbury’s again and if you are BREXIT you might want to consider it too.

    In the end I will vote BREXIT on a couple of principles but god I am going to despise Cameron, Osborne etc. when this all goes economically bad “unless you had a wonderful EU economy that might do some good”. After that they can run but not hide and if anything they will be hated round every corner if we end up as I think highly likey like Greece. I mean Cameron I hope you are right if not I hope you hang and can never show your face in the UK again, ditto all the false prophets.

    Do not give me the deceit on we have a BOE and pound, if the EU flounders then they will demand we give that up just like the others in the EZ. As for the < 30 year olds all BREMAIN, explain it to your children if you end up in an economic disasters BECAUSE YOU PUT THEM THEIR AND TIED THEIR HANDS BEHIND THEIR BACKS.

    In the end this vote was called to stem the flow of support for UKIP and really it should not have been called because the EU economy is a mess and to fall into a mess is to end up smelling of? I hope Cameron likes isolation because he is going to be more despised than Blair after all this and look at the twat prancing around all the money in the world you are still hated.

    They never learn until its too late … On the mental side though does Cameron believe his own bullsh*t if so might be time to retire the Tory party forever on the grounds this is the kind of person THEY ELECT.

    Liked by 2 people

  20. @KFC1404 – true to yourself never doubt yourself the prize is worth it.

    100 doubting people can form a democracy. it will be cautious but provided you are true to yourself it will be an honest democracy. Right wrong is not part of that equation your honesty is.

    Now I compare you to Cameron / Osborne and the rest … if not true to yourself = honest then they will pay a hideous torment in the end because coercing a democracy to something that they knew was not true will just mean more hatred for them and one step closer to the point of “only by the spilling of blood can democracy renew itself”. Not mine neither, it does not carry the mark of selling out a population theirs does.

    If anything mine is the caution on no democracy, no financial books, only sovereignty protects a population, BOE is hideous but can act all chips down by manipulating thr pound. All that we lose … is it worth it and in my mind no, never because all those in all wars over centuries defended these that is why we have them today and the EU does not.

    Cameron should have learned from Blair on this one he really should… Blair got out but still tainted now think of when Cameron gets out but the economy now collapses on ever greater fiscal demands of europe etc. to prop itself up. Until the EU collapses the name Cameron will be remembered and it can’t end until the EU either collapses or becomes a happy place once more… The last one will never happen unless you find a solution to the flaw in humanity.

    Blair will be laughing his corrupt socks.

    Liked by 1 person

  21. @ Jonathan Baker –
    Wrt the possibly rigged Austrian election, we read: “European political and media elites seem to believe van der Bellen’s razor-thin win validates their uninterrupted pursuit of European multiculturalism.” (- Soeren Kern). Is this example of the élite’s total disregard for the wishes of the other ‘half’ of the electorate a reflection of how democracy should work?

    The same élite reviles opponents of their policies as “far Right extremists”, such as :-
    “Europe has been polarized for years by misguided policies pursued by the old major parties, not only in Germany but in many European countries. The fact is that it must be our task to preserve freedom, democracy and the rule of law across the continent. And the policy of open borders does exactly the opposite.” — Frauke Petry, Alternative for Germany party.

    If the preservation of freedom and democracy now resides in the far Right, as Alice would have said our world is indeed upside down.

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  22. @Hb – I did wonder about the apparent volte-face at the DT then I remembered the story about the 25 (now possibly 23) Peerages going begging. What are the odds?

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  23. [Off Topic]

    Imagine, the British government came to an agreement with Google for the back payment of taxes. It came to the princely sum of £130 million.

    Meanwhile, the French government are wanting to make the same kind of agreement – and it should be the kind of news that hits the French headlines, if for the only reason that nobody’s throwing any bottles. Well, unofficially at least. Because the French police raided Google’s French headquarters in Paris and they want €1.6bn – yes, that is billions, not pennies.

    It had me wondering if another corporation had it in for Google, and had goaded the French into action… the outcome will be interesting, if only to show the power of the corporation in Europe, in comparison to the United Kingdom where they have complete control.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/may/24/google-offices-paris-raided-french-tax-authorities

    The Daily Telegraph pulled their article as I was writing this comment.

    Liked by 2 people

  24. on the front of the telegraph today a picture of the fatarsed kardashian whore.intelligent news done ere!

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  25. Is there any wonder that the Right Wing incumbents in Oz are in danger of losing the upcoming election!
    ” PM Malcolm Turnbull has adopted the playbook crafted for British PM David Cameron by the recently knighted master conservative strategist, Lynton Crosby”,

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  26. The Telegraph is a gruesome rag, in its latest web format almost indecipherable and full of those barely readable ‘Outbrain’ offerings. ‘With’ is conspicuously absent from that service’s name. Quality is abysmal. Moreover, on the pretext of a website re-vamp, it has dumped its comments feature. Plausible? Dubious, certainly, and no technical reason is affecting its competitors’ comment processes. Perhaps it is merely a coincidence that the Telegraph’s comments feature is absent in the run-up to the long-delayed referendum. Perhaps.

    The EU referendum, endlessly put off to the least inconvenient moment for DC and Brussels, is a quandary. Quite clearly if we do decide to remain (and it is looking that way and has from the start; who would have confidence in Buffoon Boris?), then the Brussels gang will use that decision as a lever to enforce all manner of unwanted decisions upon the UK. ‘But you voted to remain in 2016! You had your chance.’

    Remember QMV? Well now its upon us and we are some ratio whose denominator is 28. We either find common cause with nearly all the rest of the EU, Germany and France excepted as they are rampant federalists and large, or we face being defeated on nearly everything we may object to. Yes, there’s a veto on certain matters, such as further enlargement. But that weapon is very blunt and perhaps has only one or two shots in its magazine before the others change the rules by QMV.

    The EU is a tricky outfit. Its immutable end game is a Federal Europe, ruled from Brussels, Paris or Berlin. Is that our end game?

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  27. @stephen

    The DT now has little editorial stance other than serving the Sark naked self-interest of it’s owners; that would make the odds fairly short. I think Peter Oborne would agree, however, that going begging is exactly what should befall them at the end of the day. Sometime around mid-morning would have been preferable, but we’re already well into in the afternoon..

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  28. kfc1404
    all the youtube videos on the site you provided, not one mentioned May 28. they all mentioned the collapse of the USD but did’nt give any specific date. The only date mentioned was by the person who mirrored the videos. So we will see what happens in 4 days time. I may have to apolgise, but I think not.

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  29. Canexpat

    [Off Topic] The Americans are well short on effective technology.

    So in the case of RAND-style NATO pussyfooting, the S-500 would totally eliminate all NATO air power over the Baltic States – while the advanced Kornet missile would destroy all NATO armored vehicles. And that’s not even considering conventional weapon hell.

    If push comes to nuclear shove, the S-400 and especially the S-500 anti-missile missiles would block all incoming US ICBMs, cruise missiles and stealth aircraft. Offensive drones would be blocked by drone defenses. The S-500 practically consigns to the dustbin stealth warplanes such as the F-22, F-35 and the B-2.

    [Own emphasis]

    The Americans are nothing if not sabre rattlers. Witness their timidity: they fight the Afghans, they fight the Iraqis, they fight the Somalis and Syrians. People they know are armed with the modern equivalent of peashooters – and for all that, they still gave the Americans a hard time. They are gravely mistaken if the Americans put Russia in this pigeonhole.

    So why is Moscow so worried by the Pentagon placing the Aegis system so close to Russia’s borders? A credible answer is that Moscow is always concerned that the US industrial military-complex might develop some really effective anti-missile missiles even though they are now about four generations behind.

    [Own emphasis]

    The Americans are blustering cowards. Russia’s problem is that the Americans may overdo their own rhetoric and, what with an army lined up along Russia’s borders, paint themselves into a corner where they have no option but to make the one move that makes the American military to go weak at the knees: attack Russia.

    At the same time the Russian military – in a very Asian way – never reveal their full hand. The key fact of the matter needs to be stressed over and over again; the S-500 is impenetrable – and allows Russia for the first time in history to launch a first strike nuclear attack, if it ever chooses to do so, and be immune to retaliation.

    [Own emphasis]

    Our problem today is that the Americans actually believe the bullshit they peddle. Putin must be quietly laughing with his comrades as they watch the Americans make move after another, all the time blaming Russia. Yet from the beginning, Russia has had a royal flush in its hand.

    In poker you don’t blink.

    All quotations from Global Research: http://www.globalresearch.ca/beware-what-you-wish-for-russia-is-ready-for-war/5526836

    And if the Americans don’t act foolishly, there’s always Fukushima…

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  30. @Gemma

    Much as I’m sure that Russian missile technology is superior to that of the U.S./NATO, I contend that once the first nuke is launched we are all toast. Any talk of a nuclear confrontation being ‘winnable’ seems extremely dangerous. The Neocon penchant for believing their own rhetoric will be our undoing. This most recent escalation has been the result of a change in official U.S. policy that contemplates a first strike so devastating that the Russians will be too afraid to respond. Once the U.S. body politic became infested by lunatics like Perle, Abrams, Feith and Nuland-Kagan who seem to have a visceral hatred of Russia, M.A.D. became dead in the water. M.A.D. can only work if all the protagonists are rational. This is no longer the case.

    The Hildebeast’s administration will be chock full of such psychopaths, (Nuland was Clinton’s maidservant at State), and I have little doubt that the Trumpster will be subject to the very same forces despite the ‘outsider’ shtick. It seems the Chinese curse of ‘interesting times’ is at work. ‘Insert favourite deity here’ help us all.

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  31. Canexpat

    “Much as I’m sure that Russian missile technology is superior to that of the U.S./NATO, I contend that once the first nuke is launched we are all toast” – I am well aware of that, and given the intelligence the Russians have so far displayed, they will be too.

    The most important thing is that the Russians have the technology to down American ICBMs. The point here is that a government that is responsible (when compared to the likes of the US and UK, it is) also has the power to destroy American missiles. Should the Yanks get ants in their pants, there is every chance they will push that little red button.

    The main thrust of my argument was the strategic advantages that the Russian military has over the American, who are blisfully unaware inside their egoistic balloon. In local combat, the Americans will feel the heat as they have never felt it before, what with the loss of all their long out-moded ‘smart technology’.

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  32. @JW. yesh whatever. But the point is this . I know who the Leader of the Remain campaign is ; Cameron

    But to paraphrase Kissinger; If I want to speak to Brexit who do I call?

    Two grouos locked in terminal intetnecine strife. All we need now is a further split and they will be challenging the three ” Presidents” of the EU Schulz , Tusk and Djisseldrivel for the most futile troika in existence.

    They have one week tops to get their act together, merge , elect the OBE leader and STAND FOUR SQUARE IN SUPPORT KF HIM/HER….

    Otherwise Goodmnight Vienna. Look at the odds. Have you ever known a poor bookie?

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  33. IN some ways polls like this are good for Brexiteers …. they are more likely to vote, and will be more encourgaed to vote after reading the tg.

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