Homo sapiens flunks Sorcerer’s apprenticeship – OFFICIAL

borispound

BOURSE BEDLAM 0, BREXIT BROADMOOR 0

Sometimes it can be very useful to take a few days off from witnessing madness, in order to take in another venue of equal or perhaps even greater insanity as the basis of gathering comparative data. I’m referring, respectively, to the global economy and the British EU referendum.

As parallels for Bedlam, they’re hard to beat. Multivariate debt gets bigger, growth slows, commodity prices collapse, world trade shrinks and austerity continues to exacerbate the situation, media commentators and talking heads observing economic events compete to come up with ever more esoteric explanations as to why this is not a credit-fuelled, stimulation-generated faux Bull market running out of available credit and stimulus ideas. And the rallies keep coming.

Similarly, David Cameron having brought back a letter from Brussels saying nothing (beyond guaranteeing an exemption from doing gym until the end of Term) those Brits wishing to stick with a currency, fiscal, economic and libertarian nightmare still outnumber those wishing to get out by 2%. They are outnumbered only by the EU officials who want Britain to bugger off anyway.

Yesterday, the two mental institutions briefly acknowledged each other’s existence when Boris Johnson’s declaration for the Out campaign caused Sterling’s value to fall off a cliff…and then the stock market to power ahead. It couldn’t have been any other way when you think about it, being the impenetrable outcome of two inexplicable phenomena colliding.

But whereas the arrival of an explosive referendum contest is explained fairly quickly as the politics of untrammelled power versus unlimited money, what’s going on in the world of bourse, currency and interest rate economics is remains difficult to fathom if you miss even a few episodes of the soap opera. Many will appear on our screens to say they know exactly what’s going on, and many will be their contradictory answers. This never inspires confidence. In most debates, there are simply hawks and doves; the current global business bunfight is unique in embracing every avian species from ostrich to cockatoo.

As I opined at the outset, a confection of a bull market is turning into a bear, liquidity and debt crisis. But the circularity of almost uncorrelated contrarian behaviour week by week – even day by day – may never be fully explained by those who come to write the history of it later.

Certainty that collapse is coming requires only the recording of symptomology.

  1. The mimicking of abject failure
  2. The inability to pronounce ‘falling demand’
  3. The oil-stocks-stocks-oil continuum of zero insight
  4. The ‘Cloud’ (and I do hope someone really is storing it) created by the relative roles of greed, geopolitics, secret fixes, derivative schemes, etc etc

Yesterday, stocks rallied. My best ‘reason’ for this is that the Shanghai was closed – no news is good news, right? – but today it was open and gained….and now the Western stocks look bearish again…but the China stats on industrial shares were poor….so the PBOC piled in with more Yuan to save the index’s face….and maybe that’s why the markets are bearish, but then why does Draghi want to follow Japan into self-defeating zero-sum game Nirp as the Yen strengthens or aaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrgggggggggggggggg.

And spookily, I was halfway through that para when Twitter aleterted me to this gem:

clueless

Ms Kelly sounds like a good egg with a fine brain. She’s also Head analyst at London Capital Group. Mainly, she’s right.

I am not in the business this morning of currying favour with a smart, attractive woman (although there are worse ways to waste time) but rather to ask the Step Back Three Paces and Think question: why?

Nobody has a clue because globalism has rendered the planet’s network of commerce so ridiculously complex, it has become the task of lassoing ether with one hand while solving a 4D Rubik’s Cube with the other; and because global geopolitics keep the brain busy sorting truth from fiction while the hands are busy.

Our leaders stick with globalist neoliberalism as the default business philosophy because it helps the rich, corrupt and powerful become even more rich, corrupt and powerful. It is failing capitalism because its instinctive, monopolistic protectionism discourages and – if necessary – vapourises the entrepreneurs engaged in real, socially-productive capitalism.

Thus, nobody has a clue what’s going on….and the 3% like things that way. What they haven’t factored in (and being too clever by half, they never will) is that free thinkers of every shade have all the clues joined up in the right order when it comes to what must happen eventually – viz, the use of dysfunctional greed to pauperise those who drive mass consumption means globalist mercantilism will eat itself.

Tell people you’re a communitarian capitalist, and they perceive you to be some kind of bourgeois Swampy. Examine the facts and the case histories, however, and it makes sense. On that note, we return to the start of this piece. ‘Modern’ Homo sapiens doesn’t make cultures that make sense. Hence the rallies of Bulls and the Majority of Stayers.

Last night at The Slog: the latest seven reasons for Brexit

14 thoughts on “Homo sapiens flunks Sorcerer’s apprenticeship – OFFICIAL

  1. “I am not in the business this morning of currying favour with a smart, attractive woman” – Look you cant go around saying stuff like this John. What would Charlotte Proudman say?

    I can hear the anger and teeth grinding already. Think John. Think.

    Poor jokes aside, another good and correct piece – any aversion to me posting it on the Swiveleyed.com site and FB page?

    Like

  2. It’s gonna get a lot more interesting when all the oil storage facilities are full and the ship’s laden with oil are stacked off the coast of various refineries. What could possibly go wrong?

    Liked by 1 person

  3. The fact that Johnson words portray him as such a important person to be able to effect markets so much(pre-ordained),IS the fairytale!sorry propaganda,even on my local news it got a mention & he’s never been North of Watford gap! not that he can admit to & not open a can of worms anyway!

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  4. A little under 50 years ago, when I was studying applied economics, we were told that demand-pull inflation occurred when there was too much money chasing too few goods.
    You never hear those kinds of simple expressions any more, yet arguably they are as relevant now as they were then.
    The reason international exchanges are constantly rising without any sensible explanation is because there is too much artificial money chasing too few real investment opportunities.
    Private sector and public sector banks and similar financial institutions are all merrily creating artificial money by the trillions which they then have to invest to create artificial returns. They do this by buying equities on global stock markets while simultaneously purchasing artificial commodity options and swaps, and generally pushing prices ever higher for everything.
    A similar situation applies to the international property markets for land and buildings too.
    It is all bound to end in tears as it always does.
    Eventually, the whole mad brew will just boil over and the system will crash.
    Next time, follow the Icelanders.
    They handled it all just right.

    Liked by 3 people

  5. There’s no need to get over complicated about these things.
    Remember the runaway jihadis that always seemed to be able find their way to Turkey?
    How they managed to get there, when they could have been stopped earlier.

    So, why are oil and distillate storage piling up?
    (Clue – not because of over production in the face of falling demand, that’s for sure)

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  6. good comment John. and thank you JW not least for the line viz:the use of dysfunctional greed to pauperize those that drive mass consumption means globalist mercantilism ‘will eat itself.’.. worth repeating. the inflation is seen, from printing fiat, in the stock market rise and rise regardless of how awful fundamentals are.. that same inflation will reach you and me big time when versions of the helicopter drop start. thats when the perverted system will be intentionally crashed…. when they cannot squeeze us any more…
    most of the poor people on the titanic were locked in. no lifeboats for them. a vote to stay on board means been locked in for the sinking… we need out and into a lifeboat now… its called your own country…

    Like

  7. @kfc,

    Indeed fisticuffs seems to be the order of the day as this headline from Ship & Bunker World News seems to indicate:
    “Baltic Dry Index Edges Up Again, as Players Agree Scrapping is the Only Way to Get Real Recovery.”…..

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Any conflict in the middle east that drags in additional players could well see the strait of hormuz closed. This will send oil skyhigh. and that stockpile in marooned tankers will evaporate in a cauldron of consequences all entirely negative..

    Like

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