BREXIT: Stay or leave, do not be fooled: this not about economic dangers.

nato

Serious constitutional, political and military consequences are inevitable whatever happens after June 23rd

While it’s been very reassuring to see overwhelming enthusiasm for Brexit on Twitter and in most of the UK media, Leavers still face an uphill task in the short term….and need to think about some of the consequences. For in every conflicted decision, there are always consequences.

I was amused by yet another consummate acting performance from Borisconi in front of the press yesterday – bumbling, likeable bloke riddled with pros and cons dilemma – but the reality is, almost everyone outside the fanatics at either end of the spectrum is going into the Recommendum Cameronicus in two minds. For myself, I can’t abide either George Galloway or Boris Johnson, and have always thought Nigel is a controlling Party leader of narrow appeal. But I think the EC-ECB-eurogrope axis of evil is infinitely worse, and David Cameron is an incorrigible liar who deserves to get his, so that’s that.

But “that’s that” applies only to the vote. After the vote, there will be consequences.

If the Stayers win (and personally I do not think that Twitter or the old media fully reflect public opinion) then some very dark days lie ahead. The Establishment will come back together – a clear majority of all MPs support staying in – and it’s obvious from the official Corbyn line that he too is a prisoner of it.

Think of it like this: if we stay in, then the winners will be those happy to be part of an anti-democratic, bullying superstate with preposterous imperial ambitions. We will be, effectively, appeasers of fiscal tactics far beyond anything Hitler’s banker Schacht ever tried on. And we shall be tied to serial word-breakers doomed, by their pompous arrogance and inflexible currency, to catastrophic failure.

This isn’t propaganda. As I’ve been trying to explain for three years now, France is an economic mess: only a crafty change by the EC in the definition of bankruptcy is disguising this fact. In the long term, it will come out ahead of most because it is more or less self-sufficient: but its banking system has problems I can’t write about, and with world trade now faltering badly it will be a bond-spiker sooner rather than later. ClubMed is a sick joke. On his own admission (at last) Draghi discerns that liquidity issues and capital flight are growing problems in the eurozone. With China all over the place, Germany’s top-end exports to the élite there have gone instantaneously into reverse. And last but not least, the UK has a trade deficit with most EU member States.

The British Establishment, in victory, would be given the nod and wink by so-called US and EU ‘reformers’, and that would be the end of any realistic labour movement or Opposition in England: there’d be more constitutional vandalism from Theresa Whiplash, more MI6 claims about terrorism – and fewer liberties – in very short order. And the recurring issue of Scottish independence.

Boris Johnson has kicked off by talking repeatedly about democracy and liberty, and I think we can take it as read that ‘restoring a more decent Britain in charge of its own affairs and borders’ could very quickly become the central plank of any energised Leave campaign. Coming from BoJo that is of course poppycock: my 2009 prediction that he and Harman were ‘the two greatest threats to freedom in the UK’ may have been half wrong, but it’s also on course to be disturbingly half right. The Mayor is a dissembling supporter of crony capitalism, ferociously dictatorial out of the public eye – and still guilty in many people’s eyes of perverting the course of justice over both the Newscorp scandal and Elm House.

The point I’m making is that by voting Leave we aren’t saving liberal democracy in Britain, we’re merely reprieving it. And not necessarily for long.

There is an ‘obvious’ (although by no means inevitable) course of events during which the Leave camp wins, Cameron falls, Johnson becomes Prime Minister with Gove as Chancellor, and in some way or other Farage’s Army is folded into a reformed Tory Party. This wouldn’t be at all to my taste, as not only would it involve a further lurch towards corporatism, it would also give Murdoch a free hand to take over from the BBC….and cement the position of sociopaths like Jeremy Hunt and Iain Duncan-Smith.

What’s not inevitable, however, is BoJo becoming Party leader. I do not doubt that Cameron would fall, but powerful beasts are ranged against Johnson throughout the Party. Across the spectrum of Conservative opinion, there are many who see him as a loose cannon, controlling in manner and unlikely to play well north of Birmingham. The prospects for Osborne are very much on the wane now, but Gove, Hunt, May and Hammond would be ‘better’ bets for many backbenchers and ’22 Committee barons.

Far more likely, I suspect, is that the Tories would descend into a pretty unedifying bunfight: reflecting what is, in reality, a Party split down the middle about EU membership.

But it’s the final consequence of a Leave triumph that I find by far the most far-reaching and important; and I don’t think that either side is likely to raise it. This is the effect of Brexit on the European Union.

For reasons already made clear by all sane observers not in the business of risible fear-mongering, there will be little or no economic effect in the medium term at all on the EU or the UK. What’s important, I think, is a contagion of rebellion in the south and east of Europe .

I make no apology for drawing a Second World War parallel at this point. Britain voting to leave the EU would have the same effect as Montgomery’s victory over Erwin Rommel in North Africa: to destroy the myth of invincibility.

Although the overwhelming reaction of those States thus far has been deep (and entirely understandable) resentment of Brussels ‘pandering’ to the British, a British departure would have the opposite effect….one of ‘strike while the iron is hot’. Poland, Hungary, Spain, Italy and Portugal would be galvanised, and the French Right under Le Pen would see the outcome as a massive boost for its credibility.

“Nobody loves or really cares about the EU,” a senior Cabinet Minister told me eight years ago. He was right: apathy in the UK remains the Out campaign’s biggest problem, but across the Channel it’s the EU’s weakest link. Take a look at this map of abstention during the 2014 euro-elections:

euroabstain

The darker the colour, the higher the abstention rate. The ClubMed countries were, at the time, anxious to give Brussels-am-Berlin a bloody nose: but even there, we’re looking at non-voting percentage rates  of 55-60%. In the old eastern Soviet bloc, there are rates from 65-80%.

There are many ways to interpret this, but the main thing I take out of it (as a former psephologist) is massive lack of attachment to or involvement with Brussels among most European citizens.

Whereas Churchill described the Desert victory as “the end of the beginning” for the Nazis, Brexit would almost certainly be the beginning of the end for the Eunatics.

I still doubt – albeit not based on information I can guarantee, because nobody can – that the real puppeteers will not stand by and watch Britain’s departure from the EU simply happen. The illegal allocation of EU funds to support Camerlot is already a fact, and I do not doubt that funds will discreetly be made available from Washington – for whom, in NATO terms, a crumbling European Union would represent its worst nightmare.

The 2015 Election was the first time I had heard credible feedback from UKippers about electoral irregularities – not all of which by any means were restricted to seats with a large Islamic population. And if you’ve ever studied modern plebiscites, then you will already know that (compared to constituency returns by candidate) they are a cinch to doctor…especially where there is a relatively low turnout. It’s odd as a Brit to have to write this, but were it down to me I’d have everything conducted under the strictest UN supervision available, and all the counting done by executives beyond the US and Europe. But that clearly isn’t going to happen.

The thing that will make June 23rd unique in British history is the broad spectrum of electoral motives involved. This in/out vote is nothing like 1975: the geopolitics were minimal by today’s standards, and the power opportunities almost entirely absent. Harold Wilson was doing nothing more than fulfilling a cynical election pledge: he had no desire to leave, and the majority in favour of staying was never in doubt. Finally, nobody foresaw any aftermath in terms of corporatocracy, Scotland, and massive Party splits: socio-political consensus in the days before Margaret Thatcher was far greater than young people can even imagine today.

In 2016, people will vote in terms of immigration, constitution, economics, jobs, liberty, sovereignty, Party tribalism, nationalism, rebellion and sheer spite. The stakes this time are far higher. And there will be unpalateable consequences of either result.

But for the moment, I (like many others) would dearly like to smoke out The Digger.

Last night at The Slog: Boris gets on ‘is bike at last

53 thoughts on “BREXIT: Stay or leave, do not be fooled: this not about economic dangers.

  1. On last night’s Westminster Hour, Carolyn Quinn, Pat Glass, Owen Paterson and Tom News Undone from the the currant bun. Paterson spoke about his direct experience of Brussels interference when at DEFRA and was subjected to a shameless red herring attack by the presenter about whether or not Cameldung should resign if Brexit is chosen. Glass wittered on about benefits entitlements FFS, Newton Dunn was on hand for a bit of low-brow posturing. The result, predictably, was a dysfunctional and inadequate discussion of a burning issue which failed to justify the oxygen consumed in it’s creation. We can only hope that, with some heavy hitters of whatever political hue on the Vote Leave side, the meeja will at some point be forced to stop playing such a dangerously disingenuous hand. It may be not advisable to deprive oneself of the aforementioned essential gas while waiting for that to happen..

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  2. The Scottish referendum was expected to be close with a strong possibility of the Leave vote winning. It didn’t happen and the Stay vote won, but it was still very close.
    There were no exit polls for such a momentous referendum. Why? Exit polls are surely the most accurate way of predicting a result simply because more people can be questioned as they emerge from the polling booth than typical telephone polling can ever achieve.

    Call me a conspiracy theorist, but what better opportunity to ensure a Stay result than to have a vote without exit polls. As long as the count is close enough then what’s to stop any government ensuring that the “official” result goes their way?
    If exit polls suggested a huge majority in one direction and the “official” result was the opposite then questions may be asked as to the authenticity of the result.
    Of course, none of this could never happen in a country as fine and upstanding and democratic as ours, could it?

    Will there be exit polls for the BREXIT referendum I wonder?

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  3. It would be good to think the media would abstain from banality H, but me thinks they’re in this for the long term as are our politico-personalities. They know no other way. Propaganda could well be the only victor in all of this and irrespective of outcome we’ll be back where we started. My main concern is the probability of any re-alignment of the establishment to develop and maintain a stranglehold on the electorate – an electorate, on current face value, ripe for the taking. The electorate is going to have to grow some balls in the next couple of months as there could potentially be not just an exodus from the EU but an exodus from HRH-Westminster-Fascism- Land

    Vote OUT and kick some balls

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  4. Of course we talk of the EU/US unseen hand, one wonders if there will be any other unseen hands on the side of the leavers? China must be watching closely, as must OPEC and Russia, I’m sure the BRICS would love to weaken the petrodollar. This could turn into the catalyst for the big reset.

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  5. I feel forced to reply Vote IN.

    This Brexit vote is a sideshow to appease the Tory party who are desperate to destroy the Social Charter and Human Rights Laws protecting us and all EU citizens. They want to destroy the social fabric of my nation in their race to the bottom. The vulpine cabal plan to dismantle the welfare state, the NHS, destroy all social housing and make the whole country beholden to global corporations whose only motive is profit (aided and abetted by tax evasion). The cabal do this for ideological reasons not social or economic reasons. If you don’t believe me about their intentions then look who a major Brexit sponsor is, the Taxpayer Alliance. This article from last October describes their intent clearly.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34439965

    Now I fully agree with the observations made about the undemcocratic nature of the EU. The Euro was always a corrupt and failed project before Goldman Sachs “signed off” the books for all of ClubMed to join the fun, but the Troika carefully ignored the blatant fiddling and the Euro was born. The Troika have obviously forgotten the Treaty of Verdun 1919 and the deleterious effects that had on Europe. I also think the Greks played their hand too early in the recent negotiations and allowed themselves to be shafted. When playing poker telling your opponent your hand is not going to win you the money. As for the ease of capital and labour movement facilitated by EU, capital was always going to win that race. To be blunt we have a major democratic deficit within EU, but shouldn’t we be working to create democratic change from within by working with other member states? It appears to me that our response to the democratic deficit is to stamp our feet, scweam scweam and scweam, then threaten to take our ball home. Thanks Callme Dave.

    I would now like to consider what would happen on Brexit day +1 with an Out vote winning. We would need a number of skilled diplomats and statesmen to negotiate the best deal for GB out of the chaos that will ensue. Which one of the current cabinet would trust to get in the milk never mind negotiate new trade agreements? You can include Thirsty Farage and Cab Galloway if you wish….

    Better the devil you know for me.

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  6. “capital was always going to win that race. To be blunt we have a major democratic deficit within EU, but shouldn’t we be working to create democratic change from within by working with other member states”
    iT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE MEMBER STATES ARE QUITE HAPPY WITH THE UNELECTED BURUCRATS running the show ,I,ve not noticed any dissent from any member state,they know what they,ve got and appear happy with there lot,shows that the whole lot of them are corrupt!

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  7. @Avacado

    The lack of exit polls can be understood in the light of other discrepancies during the Scottish Referendum. The postal vote system is so open to abuse it should never have been allowed in its present form but it obviously serves a useful purpose for anyone wishing to doctor the democratic system. In the Referendum, not only were exit polls not reported, but the proportion of postal votes for the Unionist side was entirely at odds with the ordinary ballots. There was also an unprecedented turn-out for postal votes.

    The article below is longish, but worth reading as a primer in what to expect during the In/Out referendum.

    http://www.thescottishstandard.net/politics/the-postal-ballot-at-the-scottish-independence-referendum-fraud

    Didn’t Stalin say something about democracy and counting the votes?

    @Stevie

    Good summary of the dilemma facing all who care about the decaying social fabric of the UK.

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  8. Money will become a secondary issue if we stay in. Uncontrolled immigration will destroy the fabric of the country so you won’t have to worry about that. Staying alive might be more of an issue once the inevitable social breakdown we are witnessing in Germany,Sweden ,Callais start here. If we can’t control who comes in what does the rest matter? History has proved Europe has never been one successful group of people. It’s a disparate group with varying degrees of prosperity or lack of held together by an non elected commission and a dodgy currency. Twice in the last century we gave had to sort it out. If you want to be a European ,go live there. It’s that simple.

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  9. John
    I’m having trouble getting stuff on Gudenhove Kalergi and his gong.
    Is it an award for those who have made great efforts to destroy Europe as we know it?
    I cant find were and when, and by whom it’s dished out! I Know the disingenuous pavlo bitch has one. I find it most sinister that it is considered a great honour by many of our elites to receive this gong from a long dead cultist.
    Are it’s recipients at work on our June farce?
    How about a slogan for our thinking troops?
    FREEDOM OF SPEECH …TRUMPS ALL.
    Pick up some wind from across the pond?

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  10. MRO, think for one tiny second what happened last week. The heads of the member states sat around a large desk and discussed change. It might have been nonsensical change but it was change after all. That is how mature governments act.

    Gordie, where is your evidence that Germany and Sweden are experiencing social breakdown? Did you get it from the free and fair media in this country perhaps? With reference to your last sentence, I suppose you will be leaving Blighty for your version of nirvana (wherever that my be) if we vote to stay in.

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  11. Good points but the real reason, I suspect, Johnson has jumped to the Out camp is is so that whichever side wins the referendum, the establishment remains firmly in control.
    If Out wins, then the political establishment, which has backed the EU and EEC for several decades, has a safe pair of hands to stop the minor insurrection spreading. If In wins, then they have Johnson to quell the ensuing public fury.
    This is why I don’t think it is worth voting. The contest is not being conducted in a fair spirit. We, the voters, are being used to rubber-stamp establishment dominance and are already being deceived with this show of apparent rivalry between Johnson and Cameron.
    Why are none of the supposed eurosceptics, including Farage, calling for Cameron to resign? He failed disastrously in Brussels and should not be leading the country into a referendum. Frankly, the whole thing stinks.

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  12. A few immigration based questions for the Outers in the congregation.

    1. You own a factory and want to employ the cheapest labour available. Where do you get this labour from?
    2. You own a factory employing the cheapest labour. After we leave EU, your workforce are repatriated. Where do you get your labour from with the cheapest labour?
    3. Owning a factory and recruiting your workforce, do you
    a) Choose John Bull, Englishman par excellence and pay his NI contributions and all that
    b) Choose Stavros LikimiDiki, of limited English speaking skills and pay him a zero hour contract
    4. Who actually benefits MOST from this immigration?

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  13. “France is an economic mess: only a crafty change by the EC in the definition of bankruptcy is disguising this fact. In the long term, it will come out ahead of most because it is more or less self-sufficient:”

    Yep it one thing that will keep it alive: soil.

    Gordie – Germany isn’t falling apart. That simply isn’t true. Where I live the immigrants are being well housed, well treated. There is no social breakdown. I drove over the border to Austria a few weeks ago skiing – no border controls. There is a lot of lies and propaganda in the anglo press.

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  14. Tom you have got it in one.

    Why is nobody calling for CallMe Dave to resign?
    I even heard a talking head MP only yesterday say that CallMe was the best man to lead us whatever the outcome of the vote.

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  15. If the UK votes to leave, will Germany finally get jiggy with Russia and leave the rest of the EU/Nato to loudly implode?

    If the UK votes to leave, will this signify yet another wheel comming of the Worlds Greatest Ponziopoly game?

    Will War arrive in and around June 23, or will there be some European style ‘Pearl Harbour’ event, followed by martial prior to the sinking of the banking Piggy Banking system?

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  16. Katie Ghose is chief executive of the Electoral Reform Society. In the autumn of 2010 she worked for six months as Chair of the unsuccessful ‘Yes! to Fairer Votes’ campaign. She made an interesting admission on this morning’s “Today” programme on BBC Radio 4 to the effect that it was not the issue of reform to the electoral system which determined the outcome of the 2010/11 electoral reform referendum but the apparent political unpopularity of the Liberal Democrats.
    That is the first time I have ever heard anyone closely connected with that campaign make such an honest admission.
    I think a similar situation will occur during the Brexit referendum campaign.
    It will not be issue/s-determined but personality/ies-determined.
    You may well be right when you point out that it is hard-right elements who want to pull out of the EU.
    I can recall people like Bill Cash expressing similar sentiments during the 1980s.
    Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose – to deploy an English aphorism!
    In the overall context of this article, another might be Apres mois, le deluge – as a former French President claimed.
    That could well be what all the Eurocrats will end up claiming – but remember what happened to de Gaulle!

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  17. For those inclined to vote in, have you tried reading “The Great Deception”? ( free PDF download from the web)
    “If you open that Pandora’s box, you never know what Trojan ‘orses will jump out” – Ernest Bevan on the first attempt to impose a supranational government on the peoples of Europe.
    Nb Tony Benn was very anti the EU and a strong advocate of the Supremacy of the UK Parliament.

    Hands up all those who would relish the prospect of seeing Tony Blair or David Cameron as President of a United States of Europe…….

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  18. After we leave ,no one will get repatriated but we will choose who we let in. Come here to work ?Fine,although your example is apt and the reason wages are being held low for everyone. The living wage if we stay in will be a magnet for those from Eastern and Southern Europe. I’ve seen it in my own profession. We leave ,we will have a trading agreement along the lines promised in the 75 con referendum. As for living in some Nirvana if we stay in,I already have property in france which I like to visit and indeed am a Francofile but the county’s politics stink so I wouldn’t want to work there as an employer . After we leave I’ll still be able to visit and do everything I can now unlike the bullshit scare stories OUR ” independent” press pump out.
    As for where I read about the unrest ,that comes from the internet. There are many short documentary type postings showing it. Why should I disbelieve it any more than believe the mainstream censored pap dished out by the likes of Murdoch et al.

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  19. Gordie as a Brit living in the richest state in Germany – Bavaria – where we live they are dealing well with it. My wife commutes to Munich and early November it was a huge mess but this is now under control. I can’t speak for the rest of DE however but this subject “Die Fluchtlinge” is discussed ad nauseaum on expat sites i frequent (in fact I helped found it) like Toytown Germany.

    Germany is a tightly sown down society and given their past stability is vital to its well being. The mentality is absolutely different to the Anglo Saxon way. Stuff runs like clockwork, efficiently. Given the upheavals Germans have suffered in the past, they take this in their stride.

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  20. Gordie, you have made a lot of promises there. Want to share with us a few links to where the Brexit campaign has stated the above. i mean real manifesto promises not the ramblings of Nigel and his cohorts. Or any chance of a view of these ethereal trading agreements?

    I see you also propose ditching the living wage. That is a given should Brexit happen and I am sure you will be very pleased even though it will affect you. Curious that.

    I am however confused with your view of the media. The only bullshit scare stories coming out at the moment are for the Out campaign published by their rabid press. A vast part of the shite coming out from our media are the scare stories about Germany and Sweden facing social breakdown, yet you have accepted this as fact and a few YouTube clips.

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  21. To the tired old refrain that “we would be better off reforming from within ..”
    just how long has that drivel been spouted? This has been the line for the last 30 years, with nothing to show and a situation that becomes ever worse as treaty layers upon accord and treaty. Expansion means reform is ever more difficult. Like the unaudited budgets the promise is the same.

    I am in complete agreement that voting out does not solve problems, especially of a corporatist over centralised unaccountable state. How is an even larger corporatist unaccountable state any better – out is at least one less layer of it. The choice is not between a good choice and a bad choice, but between one decaying system and another, however out offers a tiny window of opportunity rather than none.

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  22. @Stevie

    The sweeping generalisations made in the first paragraph of your initial comment, the simplistic analysis and careful equivocation which you invoke to support your argument, make me instinctively concerned about your conclusion. I see no reason in the fact that we are ill served by our domestic politicians to justify continuing to sit on a committee which, tasked with designing a horse for all, has demonstrably failed in it’s endeavour: it’s a camel, we have the dung to prove it and we know it’s natural habitat is both arid and excessively granular. Perhaps you feel that supra-national ‘guidance’ and ‘protection’ are the only pragmatically safe options in an uncertain world, even though they can only lead to more of the same, in which case you might consider that bigger is not better, it just falls harder, usually under it’s own weight. We need cooperation where it works, but without self-determination we lose the ability to respond appropriately when it doesn’t.

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  23. To the tired old refrain “the unaudited budgets…” Just how long has that drivel been spouted?
    The European Union annual budget is audited every year by the Luxembourg-based Court of Auditors. They assess the revenues, payments (outstanding amounts owed by member states) and commitments (amounts it has committed to pay to member states) made by the EU and arrive at an opinion on the legality of the sums based on the extent to which they are subject to error.

    Have you ever questioned what you read in the papers or are told by Thirsty Farage?

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  24. @Hieronimsub

    Sweeping generalisations?

    In the past year the Conservative government have implemented the following generalisations upon the UK:
    NHS in disarray
    Disability benefits slashed
    Food bank use rocketing
    1000’s of deaths after being found “fit to work” by DWP
    Social housing being sold off
    Poorest families to loose £1600 through Universal Credit
    Grants for poorest students abolished
    800,000 removed from Electoral Register
    Homelessness up 55% since 2010
    Huge cuts to social care, libraries, day care centres etc
    Relief fund for Tory councils not Labour councils

    Even the most brain dead amongst us can see a pattern forming.

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  25. Meanwhile over in Europe
    According to an internal audit published in 2008, MEPs channelled £125,000-a-year allowances for secretaries and research assistants into family-owned businesses, foreign bank accounts and ‘front’ companies.
    The Galvin Report revealed that politicians strived to ‘use up’ their portion of a £100million expenses pot without the need to provide receipts.
    But the dossier by chief auditor Robert Galvin, from which leaks first emerged two years ago, did not name the worst culprits.
    And the day-to-day spending of the European Parliament’s 736 members – 72 of them from the UK – remains secret as they are exempt from Freedom of Information requests.
    Various TV companies have filmed MEPs signing in for 300 Euro daily expense allowance and then going home….

    An independent UK will no longer have to fund billions in UK contributions to the EU or be restricted in the rate of VAT …. amongst may other things…..

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  26. @Stevie

    The perfidious actions to which you refer do not alter the fact that:

    “This Brexit vote is a sideshow to appease the Tory party who are desperate to destroy the Social Charter and Human Rights Laws protecting us and all EU citizens.”

    is, by any definition, a sweeping generalisation which you compound by presenting various essentially straw man arguments.

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  27. @Hieronimusb

    Ask yourself what is stopping our Government from an all out attack on the UK workforce? It is not the unions or the Opposition.

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  28. I think the “unaudited budgets” refrain actually refers to the European Commission’s accounts. Still not yet signed off as bona fide? Something that Marta Andreasen tried to expose and pursue, but since buried in the chatter and white noise.

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  29. @Stephenroi

    You are describing the actions of individuals who will make every effort to make as much money as possible. Our own MP’s are as guilty as this practise as any MEP. My own MP spent over £500,000 during the last parliament in running his office. His wife is obviously the most expensive PA known to man. In austerity GB can we afford our parliament and its financial rules?

    Of course we could demand that EU gravy train is open to public review but I can’t see our glasshouse living MP’s throwing the first stone.

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  30. @ Stevie

    Gordie did not propose to “ditch the living wage” he merely commented on its effects should we remain in the EU!

    Why would your “skilled diplomats and statesmen” be required only for “brexit” negotiations, surely they would also be required for negotiating change within the EU should the UK vote to remain.

    They are the same people and to date haven’t covered themselves in glory, so your argument is irrelevant.

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  31. Phil Manc

    Please explain why my argument is irrelevant? As you say the same people have got us into the position haven’t exactly covered themselves in glory and yet they are the same people who will need to negotiate with EU in the future, IN or OUT. We are fecked if we do and fecked if we don’t because of the party politics of the conservatives and their masters.

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  32. Canexpat
    Glad to see you found the cut’n’paste job from the Democratic Socialist Federation Dunoon facebook page which I posted a couple of weeks ago. I recommend it is read by all.

    However, here’s the thing.
    Since the IndyRef Scottish Pallot papers now have 2″ block capital numbers on the back.
    So, if Sturgeon knew about the fixing of the IndyRef why did she not call another one? Somebody needs to paste that article to Galloway for a start. If I was UKIP I would be shouting from the rooftops about the rigged ref and the SNP did nothing. And I would also be seeking “assurances” that MI5 under Cameron’s instruction would not be tampering with the Brexit ref.
    JW keeps posting about the threat of a 2nd ref. There will never ever ever be another IndyRef in Scotland, so JW’s musing are way off beam on this occasion. He’s normally quite good but alas not on this occasion.

    Sturgeon has just stated that it could trigger a 2nd ref……no way.
    Here’s Sturgeons current logical position
    United Kingdom Bad
    4th Reich Good
    Really??? as they say you just can not make it up.

    With a supposed budget of £65billion (actually about £5-10Billion higher) in an Independent Scotland the deficit on the current account would be approx £15 Billion or over 20%. And that is before we get to the repayment of their share of the National Debt.

    Scotland is getting £15Billion subsidy but only adding £7billion to it’s national debt. In other words it is getting an £8billion freebie. The UK govt proposed cutting the Scottish grant by £7billion over the next 10 years taking it to some sort of parity with the rest ok the UK. – Sturgeon and Swinney refused point blank. The Tories then said that they would meet them half way and propsed a £3billion cut to the Scottish govt…so far the SNP govt is refusing point blank siting the “no detriment” clause in the Smith agreement.. It is a pile of shcweppes. We are worse off than Greece.

    If one was a bit devious one could suggest that the upcoming Brexit ref also doubles up, so that if Scotland votes to stay in then it will automatically be deemed to have become an independent country

    Anyway if there is no deal on the current “Fiscal Framework” negotiations then the above piece is pretty true.

    As another point of interest of info check out Galloways Sputnik broadcast with Dr Bob Gill on Saturday night and how S
    staying in Euroland means the heralding in of TTIP (also TISA) and the complete privatisation of the NHS.

    At the Scottish Ref that was the one issue that really changed minds. So much so that the SNP vote went from 28% around May to 45% at the referendum in September…..Think on that. If you see Nigel tell him it’s a game changer for UKIP

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  33. http://docs.dpaq.de/10395-0216-euco-conclusions.pdf … this is the link to cameldungs bits of paper from eu.. reams of lawyer produced small print writ large that is totally incomprehensible. it is, however littered with the likes of ‘duly taken into account’ and ‘for as long as the said derogations are not abrogated.’
    in the event of the majority of eu parliaments objecting to commission dictates then : ‘the commission will draw up priorities taking into account the views of national parliaments.’
    Basically the unelected eu commission is the dictator..
    we are all totally fed up with politicians no doubt but if we don’t vote to get out we will have thousands more to get rid of.

    we do not have control of our own laws or our own borders. they are subject to being overruled by the unelected commission over whom no one has control.. we are a province not a country… please vote to bring in-house power over ourselves… otherwise we have been completely sold out to an unelected foreign power.

    Liked by 2 people

  34. Talking of research Stevie, you allude in point 3b of your post at 11.50am above that Monsieur Factory Owner can only offer zero rate contracts to immigrants.

    Is that truly the case? If it is, most of the bar staff in my local must be immigrants who speak impeccable English.

    Like

  35. Stephenroi,

    I looked at the book. I didn’t go through all of the partisan biased content but scanned for something I know about. Page 17 gives a lovely long rant about the opening up of the Post Office to competition and attributes this directly to the implementation of supplemental directive 2002/39. It might trouble you that even the EU were surprised at the way a SINGLE member state opened up its postal market fully. That single state is of course UK. That decision was taken by New Labour nobody else.

    So if I can pick holes in that book in 5 minutes what other lies are in it? It was written for an audience by an author with an agenda.

    Like

  36. Stevie,

    Very simple – They won’t be our Commissioners. As Tony Benn put it, (I paraphrase), the UK parliament once more assumes supremacy and some of us who bother to vote do at least have a chance periodically to oust an unpalatable government of whatever hue…..

    Liked by 1 person

  37. @Stevie (the real one)

    When democracy becomes ever more remote, housed hundreds of miles away, a more direct democracy becomes ever more appealing.

    That is why I shall be voting Out….or Leave…..or Leave it Out.

    Liked by 2 people

  38. Bertie Bear recons that :
    “There will never ever ever be another IndyRef in Scotland”
    And also :
    “If one was a bit devious one could suggest that the upcoming Brexit ref also doubles up, so that if Scotland votes to stay in then it will automatically be deemed to have become an independent country”
    I see yet another devious outcome (even counterintuitive outcome?), in Scotland.
    The Scottish Nationalists are still nursing their bruises from being ‘robbed’ of their independence in their recent referendum. They tell us that another stab at a Scottish Independence referendum could be a generation away. However,.. they also tell us that a vote *Leave* in the EU ref., could trigger a new Scottish Independence ref, much sooner.?
    Is it too counterintuitive to suggest that it might be a perfectly logical act for Scot Nats, [on mass], to deviously and purposely vote leave [EU], in order to fast forward their new Scottish Independence referendum.
    So,.. Whilst they say they want to stay in the EU, might the Scot Nats., do a *sacrificial Leave* in the EU referendum, in order to instigate a speedier new stab at Scottish independence, which is far more important to them?
    Scot Nats., could well be the [unexpected], best friends of vote Leave EU.

    Like

  39. Try looking on ” to hell with political correctness ” on Facebook Stevie and Jeremey for plenty of video evidence of what’s happening in Europe,unless of course it’s all lies

    Like

  40. There may be over 100 reasons for brexit but there are two simple factors that make it a near certainty; spring/summer mass migrant migrations and an ailing euro banking sector. By the time June referendum arrives Europe will be a pariah

    Like

  41. Well, all it will take for the No campaign to grow wings will be Deutsche Bank needing a bail out due to derivative bet cock-ups; a few HS1 trains vandalised at Calais by vagrant N. African economic migrants; and David Cameron exposed as having been philandering with regularity with Rebekah Brooks and Murdoch having covered it up to blackmail Cameron to support In all guns blazing.

    Any chance of those coming to pass?!

    Like

  42. I rather doubt that a Washington under trump is so anxious anymore to preserve an EU with such a damafed currency system that even if Brtain stays will have club med defaulting. You have to remeber Nato operates indep[endantly of the EU the IMf you recall rather ambivalent about bullying Greece to stay the course, and also now Eastern Europe you will note has not asked Brussels for its opinion on whether or not to close its borders, but rather each nation has just done it. When the refugee boats stop landing in Greece but move on to Italy the government there now will fall and the Lega Nord is going to rise. I haven’t been to that land of the romantic lunatics but i have heard stirrings that many people there no longer intend to ASK the EU to do any thing but rather TELL it what they are going to do instead. Also I do not have the pulse in the streets of Blighty but knowing my relatives John Bull is rather civil and restrained until what lurks inside boils over then he’s not restrained at all. Pity the BNP imploded from the shear stupidity of its few remaining adherants before the main chance has come.

    Like

  43. Pingback: 100 REASONS FOR EU BREXIT - Conservative News & Right Wing News | Gun Laws & Rights News Site : Conservative News & Right Wing News | Gun Laws & Rights News Site

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