BREXIT EXCLUSIVE: Cameron, EU meltdown, migrants, Russia, Turkey and anti-US geopolitics

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A mass online persuasion mission is under way that goes far beyond what the British electorate may or may not want from Camerlot ‘renegotiation’ of its relationship with the European Union. The Slog reveals some extraordinary information, and invites readers to decide for themselves between the real and the surreal.

There was a rare and brief period of significance during the puerile debate on David Cameron’s ‘deal’ from the EU in the House of Commons yesterday. It occurred when both Labour and SNP members tried to put pressure on the Prime Minister to postpone the Referendum for various reasons. The Conservative leader huffed, puffed, jollied and brushed off the requests…but there was even less logic and more shiftiness than usual in the way he did it.

For me, it was a penny-dropping moment: Cameron, I felt, was a man with a timetable, and he didn’t want it to be derailed. His original plan was to make the sort of statement we heard yesterday around mid-February, but now he’d brought it forward. Why?

The PM is not one for the exhaustive debate (let alone Inquiry) because he knows that such things might rapidly reveal to the crash investigators that his plane has no engines. But yesterday, I sensed there was a much bigger factor than that: Dave looked concerned that the unravelling of the EU on various dimensions was about to become so obvious, even Tyrone and Bianca Lakeweed of Lower Slobdon-on-Cesspit might spot it.

I have a dwindling list of Westminster contacts these days – especially since the last Election – but I do still have one former Whitehall mandarin with a least one finger on the pulse, and the rest in various pies. I ran my hypothesis past that person, who came back to me around midday as follows….not verbatim, hence no speech-marks: what follows is the gist, sorry, the heads up. I must try and keep the slang up to date.

You’re quite a bit behind the curve on this one. Most of the Cabinet and Dave’s endless unofficial advisers have been having kittens about a rapid deterioration in the eurozone since last October. Tory-friendly hacks are trying very hard to spin the worst of the news – or not cover it – but the Party at the top thinks the Berlin and Brussels grip on things is dismal.

In particular, they cite Italy and France as Chernobyls waiting to happen. And the migrant crisis is getting out of hand.

I mentioned this morning’s Bloomberg release about the inflation forecast for the eurozone being halved. This was airily dismissed.

Yes, it’s a clear symptom of economic malaise, but they know the average voter doesn’t care about that stuff. [This has always been my experience too when talking to Camerlot about EU membership]. When they talk about “getting a grip” they mean solving the stuff that Farage jumps on. The anti-EU crowd gets Farage…Tory policy on the Referendum is all about giving Farage nothing he can get his teeth into. It’s the depiction of the EU as an organisational basket case – especially about migrants – that will turn working class voters against it. That and being forced to do what these idiots want.

I asked if there was a fear that dissenting Labour MPs were getting their message across.

The Labour outers as you’d expect are making no headway at all. Most of them have forgotten how to listen to the unwashed, let alone talk to them. And the senior Tories know that the vast majority of the Labour Party isn’t going to critique its own idealistic dream. Their (Camerlot) nightmares are about things like violent migrant backlash, regional violence in Spain, chaos in Italy, direct confrontation over border controls in Poland and Hungary, and above all – more and bigger Jihadist atrocities in France that might leave Hollande at the mercy of LePen.

***************

Now the above is of course just one person’s sounding of opinion…a person I would describe as mildly eurosceptic. As it happens, for example, I disagree that economic and fiscal disasters don’t matter: I stick to my long-held view that the sheer scale of Italian banking collapse (and its potential incrimination of ECB directors) could very quickly set off a fuse heading rapidly for the gunpowder barrels; and a crisis in the Spanish onetime Caja system could alone blow Deutsche Bank away. What starts as technical finance-nerd news will hit the tabloids the minute that their readers can’t get cash out of the ATMs.

But two days ago, this cryptic text was left on my private mobile:

Ask yourself why Schäuble has been struck dumb

It’s a fair point: even today in Britain, the entire age spectrum has been brought up on the cardboard German who wants to order everyone about. And Wolfie Wheelchair has been uncommonly silent during the ‘renegotiations’ saga. So I got back to the sender, whom I have met (and respect) without there being much trust between us. This pseudonomic email came back a few hours ago:

DSemail

Having given it a few minutes thought at the time – and had time to reflect since – there really is only one answer to the riddle: ‘destabilising NATO’s creature in Europe, the EU’.

But in terms of both credibility and extrapolation, you’d have to be as green as grass to take it at face value. That is to say,

  1. The obvious imputation is that both the Russian and Turkish régimes would like to see the EU in a mess, and
  2. a big feather in their caps would be Brexit
  3. but the source knows I am a committed eurosceptic, whereas
  4. I have never been able to ascertain where he stands on the EU – or indeed, his nationality, employer or political leanings.

We are in Smiley’s People territory here. The only points I would make are:

i. whether accurate on not, just by getting in touch, the source suggests that, as always, major league geopolitics are in play; and

ii. if he’s bothering with lil’ ol’ me, then every blog with some degree of influence is being distracted/wooed and manipulated in an attempt to have their will prevail….whoever ‘they’ might be. That is, there is a great deal at stake.

Earlier at The Slog: When bourse skullduggery becomes utterly dysfunctional

36 thoughts on “BREXIT EXCLUSIVE: Cameron, EU meltdown, migrants, Russia, Turkey and anti-US geopolitics

  1. Two things spring to mind:
    A collapsed EU would love to have someone like GB to blame for everything.
    The finger pointing at Putin is increasing daily. Putin might find it very opportune to choose his moment to strike first at a western europe in TOTAL DISARRAY following the collapse of the european circus.
    NATO will be watching for this.

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  2. Merkel and Van Rompuy have both been awarded the EU Charlemagne prize for their efforts in moving the Coudenhove Kalergi plan forward.

    A little research on the above and it will be glaringly obvious what the EU’s tearing down of sovereign states and its migrant invasion is really all about. PS: Blair was also the proud recipient of this award.

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  3. I did wonder what had turned the Big Gun Tory MP Eurosceptics. I suspected then that they had been nobbled but, now I imagine that the desire not to be seen responsible for the EU’s demise is more likely if collapse is imminent but, who knows what these slippery sods are up to? And not forgetting the desire to break the Dollar hegemony, with the oil situation as it is it be in quite a few folks interest to break that.
    It could get very nasty very quickly. But there again we have been here many times before..

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  4. “What unites enemies like Erdogan and Putin”
    Personally, I’d say anything that the US is pushing for, whether they are for or against it?
    The whole world seems to be be at loggerheads with someone or other…except that the whole world has missed it is up to us individuals to be the whole world, cos we are……I am only fed up with the dipstick who sacked my husband 11 months ago. Talking about countries against countries is rubbish……a country is a block of land.
    When Cameron said he wanted his MP’s to ignore the groundswell of feeling in constituents, THAT is what unites enemies……not that we are or were. For goodness sake, peeps, wake up!!!!

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  5. ‘Smiley’s People Territory’, a explanation. The US’s principal Arab ally, Saudi Arabia, is the author of 9/11. Fifteen years later, the US makes a peace deal with Iran, SA’s bitterest enemy. In between times, Western intervention in Syria causes an apparent civil war, which is rapidly expanded by SA and Iran,, as a cup tie on somebody else’s ground. Russia steps in to ensure the creation of maximum chaos, to disadvantage both Turkey and the EU (NATO), by the creation of a refugee crisis. As planned by Moscow, immigration fears, heightened by the refugee crisis, obliges the UK to hold an EU referendum., which paralyses Cameron’s foreign policy. As German foreign policy has been rendered inconsequential by Merkel’s disastrous ‘Nazi ablutions, we welcome everbody’, and the US is on holiday to the next Presidential election, there is a vacuum, which must be filled. Japan? Constitutionally impossible. China? No, the South China Sea is enough. Step forward Russia, the future ruler of the remains of Syria, the control of Iraq’s oil production, not to mention Lebanon by proxy, thanks to Iran. Looks like the USA has already lost control or influence, in the long term, over the ME, by blindly backing the house of Saud, and making a premature deal with Iran.

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  6. @ will lefeurve

    ALL the political elites of the Western democracies are fully signed up to Social Democracy (Big Welfare, High Tax, High Spending, Big Regulation) even the USA if you really look at it, as the only acceptable political system. Similarly they are all signed up to the ideal of One World Government. Just as there are different flavours of Social Democracy, there are different visualisations of what OWG would look like, but fundamentally they are all the same. Many of them probably know little or nothing about Coudenhove Kalergi and his views, but foremost of the fundamentals required for OWG is the elimination of the Nation State, Cultural, Racial and National diversity on the one hand and the elimination of accountable Government in favour of an ‘independent’ technical elite working solely for the Greater Good, of course, on the other.

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  7. My take on this is the last ditch attempt for USA hegemony.

    They are playing both sides against the middle with the eedjit politicians merely pawns of their American masters. It suits their aims to destabilise EU, then probably a war, to reset their economy and then global hegemony of the dollar. Then out of the ashes a new Phoenix will rise, carrying the masters of the free world (or so they think).

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  8. How does this play with the news of Turkey planning to invade Syria? Will Turkey target the Peshmerga and forget about Aleppo? I wondered if it might be an agreement to provide gas to Europe and elminate the competition.

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  9. @William

    If you replace SA with another nearby entity you get almost the same outcome, but backed by more evidence. How many businessmen with strong ties to the Saudi elite were involved in the purchase and insurance of the WTC? How many friends of Saudi Arabia were in extremely high positions in the U.S. government and were able to ensure that NORAD was otherwise engaged with multiple exercises? How many Wahhabi mullahs occupied the second most important post in the Justice Department to arrange for the removal of all evidence to China and to strangle at birth any criminal investigation of the events of that day in September? How many Saudi Arabians were discovered celebrating the collapse of the towers or arrested driving a moving van full of explosives?

    Also, how is Iran expanding the civil war? As far as I can tell, Iran has sent Revolutionary Guards and is supporting Hezbollah fighters who are supporting the sovereign government of Syria. I would suggest that Iran has every interest in supporting a stable Syria, whereas SA, Qatar and the other Gulf tyrannies are supporting the neocon attempt to destabilise every regime that does not bend its knee to the US/Israeli axis. Given that each of these Gulf nations consists of a Sunni/Wahhabist elite minority that brutally oppresses a Shia majority, they do indeed have their own incentive to destroy Syria and Iran. No organised crime group can afford a good example that could inspire their victims to revolt.

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  10. I don’t think there is any danger of the EU collapsing. Cameron’s cronies are just putting that about to hide the complete failure of his negotiations and so that people don’t worry about voting to stay in.
    If we had a functioning mainstream media, Cameron would have resigned by now. The EU’s leaders showed him up for the arrogant, blustering twerp that he is – and in the process diminished and embarrassed the country.

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  11. I never put more than a penny of my emotion in the belief that the powers that be will lose a single battle and the EU vote is such a battle. I know they are going to lose the war, the war to turn the globe into a neoliberal market paradise, but they always win the little battles.

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  12. @Hiero

    It’s a win-win. National government revenues will soar with the Molotov salvoes provoked by the introduction of such a tax.

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  13. …. And while we were lulled into a trance, TTIP sneaked in without even a murmer.

    The next day the fools woke up to find that they had new masters.

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  14. It is relieving to know that readers of JW’s blog recognise the hollowness of Cameron’s “Victory is ours”, statement. I must say that the sheer chutzpah of a person, who I am starting to see as a congenital , is unbelievable.

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  15. The entire political establishment wastes billions of taxpayers money in ENDLESS discussion about the european circus.
    And in late-breaking news, Scotland Yard has announced it is launching an investigation into the comedian Benny Hill.
    Public sector only does the PLAY WORK that they see fit, and then they want MORE MONEY!

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  16. Having now learned so many lessons from our previous, mainly bitter experience, wouldn’t it be better if we blew the whole planet to pieces and started again on Mars

    I used to go and watch oldtime wrestling. Mick McManus, Jackie Pallo, Bert Royal and co. You always knew where you stood with these guys. There’d be the old lady hitting someone with her handbag. Len, the referee would be thrown out of the ring. The crowd would cheer and go home happy. Now, you need a degree in psychophysics and maternity before you’re born to survive……

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  17. When living in a warren it is a difficult choice as to which rabbit hole to go down. With the total ban on information concerning the various new trade agreements now being negotiated I am convinced the corptocracy is making a bid for total domination over statehood. When driven purely by profit and with no morality, to give such legal entities total power is an extremely dangerous step.for all populations. To peer into an uncertain future, when automation has made most unemployed and unemployable, we will all wake up one day to find we are Kissinger’s useless eaters. Events are moving down a defined path and we are not privy to any of the machinations controlling it. As the Daily sheople says so eloquently: “Wake the flock up!”

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  18. Ron,

    I don’t wish to piss on your chips but the wrestling was totally false. My dad was a second in Liverpool Stadium in early 60’s and knew all of the wrestlers. One of the big names tried to pick a fight with my dad in the dressing room until my uncle (my dads younger brother) stepped in. Apparently Mick McManus was very shocked when the 8 stone weakling hospitalised him. If anyone has any recollection of the Liverpool Satdium, my uncle used the cannons (upside down on the pavement) to bash Mick into. Who would have known my uncle was a Judo black belt third Dan training for the Olympics squad.

    The moral of this story? Never judge a book by its cover.

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  19. JW fascinating post. Here in the antipodes looking in one would ask why on earth would any country wish to sign up to the EU? Common administrative and regulatory processes and rules do not require a special Parliament or rule body, merely policy points. What on earth could you want with getting locked into a confederation of basically bankrupt nations speaking a dozen different languages and who have periodically since, well for at least about four and a half thousand years now, engaged in homicidal warfare. Strategically, the mass influx of people into southern Europe and the Mediterranean countries all the way to Sweden has placed a human blocker across every country near the Russian borders, if NATO wanted to engage in homicidal warfare on the EU’s behalf its ability to move on the ground is now significantly compromised. Thats’ a ‘no win’ for Cameron and the more bellicose elements of the UK too. So as Smiley would have also said in these circumstances, you get eighty percent of your intelligence from everyday media and communications, the other twenty per cent from sources. Source information unless it is from god is always F6. Can’t understand the situation? turn it around one hundred and eighty degrees and try and disprove the conclusions, easy done, then it is of no use and only information.

    No, I think the issue is more prosaic but deadly, it is money. Western financial capitals are now effectively locked out of the Asia-China-Russian and or the BRICs money pot. The price of oil has collapsed? why is that? it is because there are now two markets and two currency trading regimes. It has nothing to do with depressed demand which remains fairly constant in gross terms. My money is on the “city” and the financial sector being in serious trouble on a large number of fronts. Getting into the EU gives Cameron and the city proper access to the EU financial system and especially the ECB. The other thing that everyone has missed is this: if the effective central bank interest rate is zero on money, it means it has no value because it cannot earn interest. The blow up will come from the petrodollar states, the Saudis have shorted the oil market and busted it for westerners, the only country this truly damaged was the US and the UK both producers. Nobody knows what do with the busted western oil sector and their loans, BP is a basket case. Russia and China sailed on unaffected. So if you have; money which has no value, product which has no value, costs which exceed your earnings and now restricted access to half the world’s markets what are you? Insolvent. The US and the UK and a few others are all effectively insolvent. No wonder Cameron is desperately looking for a lifeboat.

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  20. With another banking collapse looming on the horizon, which do you think Davos man would prefer?
    A race war or a class war?

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  21. H totally agree, with your last sentence especially.

    Cameron is just moving the deckchairs around on the Titanic while the band carries on playing to distract the passengers and women and children get left behind in the dash for the very few lifeboats left. The crash has already happened and it’s now the long slow slide into oblivion. Those that thought the EU Titanic would float are already faced with a ship with a broken back and about to upend into the depths of a graveyard. The builders of the Titanic as with the EU cut corners for financial reasons (to suit the bankers) and with huge amounts of hubris claimed and continue to claim she was/the EU is unsinkable. Until she hit an unexpected object in her path and couldn’t get out of the way quick enough. Think we already know the EU is holed below the waterline. It’s now just a case of seeing who goes down with the ship, who has a life jacket on and eventually what can be recovered and salvaged from what’s left of the shipwreck.

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  22. I see no solutions above, just entrenched views from self interest. So loaded with antithesis that no enduring overall perspective can be grasped. No solutions, just more & more inherent problems to be birthed. The Historical atrophication of mindsets & their attendant manifestations, that are, in there consequences, the whole problem.

    The re-cycling is to be commended though, even if it only stretches to ideas. Why, you might ask? me too.

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  23. @Iain

    I agree entirely. Canada (an apparently sovereign nation) is now listed as a corporation on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Does this mean that sovereign states are just one more corporate entity for the purposes of the TPP, no different from Goldman Sacks or Wallmart? This was done with no fanfare at all. Democracy is truly pushing up the daisies these days.

    https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000230098&owner=include&count=40

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  24. Steve

    interesting account, thanks – I was merely making a point about how ‘simple’ everything seemed in those times

    why then is Camerdung appearing to be running headlong into a burning building and wanting us all to join him?

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  25. I was talking to a friend ,in the know,and he said the BP situation was a write down in asset prices. Demand for oil based products is strong . The US stuffed BP over the gulf leak. Exon Valdez resulted in a peanuts fine while it took an intervention by CamelDung to stop the US completely bankrupting the company. One law for US oil companies and another for special relationship ones.

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  26. Just listened to Guy Verhofstadt (usually a congenital Brit. hater and mocker) on ‘Daily Politics’. Smooth as silk, understanding, even of Dave’s position. There is something up indeed and it bodes ill for dear old Blighty.

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  27. Ron,
    why do you look for sense in a politician? Its like the old question, how do you know an agent (or other waste of space parasitic scumbag) is lying? Answer = Their mouths are moving. They seek their own benefit and that is all. Please try to keep up, true public service and all that died 60+ years ago.

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  28. Dear Mr Gruff, there are no solutions, not within past and present thinking, political or financial. The capitalist model as it is currently constituted does not have ‘ limits ‘ in its lexicon or thoughts. Magnums maritime analogy seems correct within those limits. In all the drama about money few have taken the time to consider – limits. It is downward trajectory even though some may spurt up again, it is called chaos and we have not discovered the intracies of chaotic flows but I think we are now, it is going to be unpleasant. the Neoconservatives and pseudo western socialists don’t comprehend these problems either.

    If you have not taken a JW route which allows for self maintenance and sustenance and can cope with loss of energy for periods then your stranded dependent upon city state food and energy logistics and systems. What we are seeing here is the reality of governance and economic as we cope with successive restrictions on just about everything you can think of. Not sure what the weather has planned though.

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  29. Pingback: Schlumps und gonafs | Gabriel Vents

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