THE NEXT BIG FIX: Polls, legislature votes and elections


Status Quo 2  Evolution 0

Hillary Clinton has beaten Bernie Sanders 53-51. Actually, she hasn’t: the 103rd vote was also a tie, so they did a best-of-five tossed coin to decide it. Hillary won 5-0, the odds against which are 31-1. But deciding a Presidential caucus race on the flip of a coin? It makes penalties after extra-time look positively scientific.

Meanwhile, until three days ago the polls had Bernie Sanders on a roll, having gone -12, tie, +8% over the previous three weeks. Suddenly, last Saturday Hillary pops out front by 8%.

“It was nuts” one Democrat activist told a local Des Moines journalist yesterday, “there was little or no security. Unauthorised people were wandering in and out all the time. It didn’t smell right”.

On the Republican side, Trump was 28% to Cruz’s 24%; like Sanders on Clinton, he had steadily gained ground since last August. The result reversed those numbers and had third-rated Marco Rubio make an 8-point jump to 23%….thus threatening Chump from both sides.

During the 2012 caucus, results were delayed as ‘voting irregularities’ were discovered and ballots ‘went missing’. An investigation later found four people guilty of voter fraud.

There were only two candidates ready to kick The System in yesterday’s election: they both lost, against the odds.


“Not at all,” said a UKip activist I first met at the Buckingham by election five years ago, “most of us [in UKIP] have seen clear evidence of ballot-stuffing in one situation or another, especially in Inner London. Westminster would stop at nothing to keep Nigel out”. This from a bloke who really doesn’t like Farage….and yet can see how the Establishment feels threatened by him.

But there’s more than one kind of vote. Last night, something extraordinary seems to have happened during a UK House of Commons debate. HSBC whistleblower Nicholas Wilson was relying upon an intervention in the debate by SNP MP George Kerevan. Kerevan sits on the Treasury Select Committee, and is widely believed to feel that the FCA is a lapdog, allegedly complicit in dumping further banking regulation. Wilson believes that both in the UK and US, David Cameron has lobbied actively to ‘cover up’ serious fraud inside HSBC, as well as parachuting Rona Fairhead into the top BBC job to protect the bank from damning investigative journalism.

This was the exchange last night:


 Kerevan indicated dissent from the standard Rees-Mogg young fogeyness. That was it. He didn’t speak. Mr Wilson is baffled. So am I.

I tried to play the clip on BBC Parliament’s sound recording page this morning. Much buffering, then a long whistle followed by “this process is now over”.


It’s important to keep these issues in perspective. Iowa may be simply about late surges (it’s happened before) and Kerevan may have had genuine second thoughts. But when you’ve already gone along with manipulating gold trackers, the oil price, the LIBOR rate, perverted justice, told lies in Parliament to protect Newscorp and had the police do your political bidding, it really is no big deal to fix a poll. At least one Greek poll on the Greek oxi referendum was obviously interfered with. MPs have been regularly blackmailed by Whips for decades. Doubts persist about both the Irish austerity referendum and the election of Ed Miliband. And the assurances given by Washington to Camerlot about getting the right ‘Stay in’ referendum result are not just wild rumour. (People keep asking me to put up or shut up about that one; in some ways that is fair comment. In other ways – including the existing direction of my knees – it smacks of “You ‘it ’em an’ I’ll ‘old yer coat, Guvnor”).

As to the polls on ‘Brexit’ themselves, they strike me as highly dubious on a number of dimensions. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard was a little over-opinionated about the issue yesterday, but it isn’t hard at all to invent a survey, stick it online, ask leading questions – and then discreetly change them to be less directive afterwards. I simply do not believe that 52% of Brits want to say in the EU, and only 38% want to go. And if 65% really are happy to be guided by Dave himself, then using the most polite syntax I can conjure up, there is obviously a very serious brain-virus doing the rounds.

The Camerlot game plan here is like a badly-scripted and entirely predictable sitcom – instead of Eastenders, perhaps, we have Westminsters. “It’s jolly tough and we’re being tough but we’re edging closer to what we want by mid February and then the vote in June will show that my short-term economy with the Truth has paid off”, Mr Cameron did not say last night.

Yesterday at The Slog: Kick-starving the economic recovery

17 thoughts on “THE NEXT BIG FIX: Polls, legislature votes and elections

  1. Thankfully, the Brexit referendum will not be decided by ‘hanging chads’, which may have consigned Al Gore to history, but by TURNOUT, which is likely to be higher for the ‘out’ voters, who have 3 campaign groups to rally around, against CMD’s 1!


  2. was it stalin said something like ‘i care not who votes for what, but who counts the vote, counts’ and the original morgan stanley was it?? i care not which government is elected but give me the power over the money and i will control everything… Democracy has always been a theory and never practised… it is a sham to get people to go to war and think they have some say in something…


  3. Desmond,

    “Democracy has always been a theory and never practised” – has Britain lost its democratic culture to such a degree that Britons think that it simply cannot exist, anywhere?

    I’ll add that when I returned to Britain from Germany in the late 80s, I returned to my vote and civil, democratic rights. I felt as if they had been stripped from me, the culture in Britain was so a-political.


  4. We all know that in ANY event, we are not leaving the EU, Cameron would just declare ‘National Security’ is at stake if we leave, and keep us in.
    Let’s re-visit this old chestnut: “Their game, their ball, their rules.
    We don’t stand a bat’s chance in Hell against these people.


  5. Their was a cartoon graphfitin “Chad “… Just a noes hanging over a wall , a semi hemisphere for a head anf a nought and cross for eyes..caption read “what no “space for you response.
    Reganding “hanging chads” , I consider that very dangerous imagery…It might just give folk ideas!
    Also their is/was such a thing as chadless tape ..I know..kos I used it.


  6. Trump was 28% to Cruz’s 24%……… typo….

    Lucky Dave rises to the top because he is a bag of snake oil in a bowl of water. Only he could stage the BREXIT referendum, look like a man with egg on his face and still win. SNP and Labour will vote ‘IN’. That and the ethnic vote should sign and seal the NO TO BREXIT campaign.

    We can look forward to being governed by a dishonest ignorant circus of continental twerps who STILL have’nt solved the migration CRISIS, and given victory in this little battle will be chuckling for the rest of our lives, and RUBBING OUR NOSES IN IT.


  7. @Gemma .. i was born in england and have never been aware of any democratic culture……… but ‘its the same the whole world over.. its the rich that gets the pleasure and the poor that gets the blame..’ is more the culture i was taught and have grown to experience for myself.. until we are able to come together around the one thing that unites us, namely being human, then we are condemned to repeat our mistakes ad infinitum.


  8. Until people stop thinking that voting every 5 years is the way to change things, the elevator to hell will carry on regardless. There is only one button and it says DOWN.

    Give me a shout when the people use the money in their pockets to vote and i’ll be somewhat impressed. Until that happens nothing will change.

    As for Bernie Sanders, I hope he gets in, but nothing will change. Do you really think he is going to go up against the vested interests and the military industrial complex?

    I hope I’m wrong


  9. For rigged elections I suggest you start at the 2007 Scottish Parliament and the case of Dave Thompson, where the Returning Officer tried to deny Dave the last parliamentary seat on the “list”. Dave had to physically stop (I kid you not) him from getting onto the podium and declare a rigged list seat for the Greens. This would have meant the SNP and Labour tied ( instead of the SNP being one ahead), therefor Labour would have remained in government.

    I also suggest that you google “socialist democratic federation dunoon” and read their facebook account of ballot stuffing during the Scottish referendum. It’s the old postal ballot rigging again, as mentioned by others on this site.

    As a member of the sNP for 50 years I think the Scots may well have voted Yes for independence, even though I definitely voted No, as can be confirmed by my posts at the time. We achieved an apparent world record turnout of 96% for a postal ballot on a year old electoral register. Not bad considering 10 % probably died and about 30% manged to remember to vote although suffering from demetia. You just can’t make it up.

    It’s pretty bad when one hopes that the political system of the UK can be elevated to the status of a banana republic.

    Roll on the EU referendum and hopefully LEAVE can shut the door to MI5 rigging the UK ballot this time


  10. At the root of the problem is that we don’t really have proper opposition parties. We have controlled opposition who are either unwilling or unable to challenge the legitimacy of the contest.
    Take the EU referendum. Why is Cameron allowed to set the date of the referendum? It should at the very least be debated in Parliament.
    Another example is Farage’s abject surrender in South Thanet in May when the contest was clearly suspect. He waffles on about EU corruption but never seems to countenance British corruption.
    The Out groups should refuse to accept the date of the EU referendum and if it goes ahead, urge people not to vote.
    And it’s the same story in the USA, with another ‘surprise’ result, so that Hilary Clinton can face an easy opponent.


  11. it is quite possible for a very rich person to own a house in every constituency in the country & be on every electoral roll & vote in every one legally


  12. it is possible for a very rich man to own a house in every constituency in the country & vote legally in every one except for a general election!


  13. Iowa stinks like a week old kipper.
    Rubio comes from nowhere to siphon votes away from Trump.
    Hilary ‘wins’ six coin tosses in a row. Probability 1 in 64, so that was lucky.
    Turns out that Microsoft provided a ‘free’ app to tally the votes from the Republican precincts, which, predictably had some issues…and still we have numpties who think online voting is the way to go…
    Microsoft are, just coincidentally, one of Rubio’s biggest donors.

    But I’m sure it was all just a late surge thing.


  14. How many other countries, apart from the UK, count the votes in a different place than where they are cast? never get a better chance to rig an election, ask Cameron


  15. from abcNEWS

    “Well, I was shocked a coin flip was considered a fair way to decide delegates in the case of a tie. It is 2016 after all. I saw Sanders lose the flip, and all I could think about was when I was in elementary school I used to bend coins with my teeth in order to give myself an unfair advantage over bets.” With that thought, when Liz saw the caucus worker put the coin on a table, it was her immediate reaction to grab it. “I felt bad for taking it, but I ended up getting out my phone and I recorded myself flipping it seven times before two big men noticed me. Every flip was tails.” At this point, the coin was taken back from Krupa, and the men, likely security guards, insisted that she delete the video she had taken, and then tried to confiscate her phone. When she refused, the men physically and forcibly removed her from the Desmond caucus location. “I was thinking, maybe this was just strange chance. It wasn’t until security acted forcibly towards me that I knew I needed to send the video somewhere for investigation.”


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