MARKETS PLUNGE CONTINUES: world stock averages off over 3%, explanation bollocks 50% up

globconnectivity

This is a correction to Bear market levels. And the new fear now is globalist connectivity

As one level after another gets left behind in the global stocks sell-off, each day the rationalisations put forward by Those Who Would Say That are forced to change.
The new excuses are (a) Chinese stock prices only represent 3% of the total ‘real’ Chinese economy (b) China is changing from a manufacturing exports to service-based economy so we can expect some short-term pain (c) banks have never been better placed to withstand shocks than now because leverages have fallen and balance sheets have shrunk (d) people in business at the sharp end of most economies are in a better position to judge than banks and  bourses, and they’re go-go with confidence (e) Jobs are growing and wages are rising (f) the US economy is sturdy and ready to move on up (g) we are still not in a stocks recession….but then later in the day when all of a sudden we were (h) that doesn’t mean the economy is in a recession (i) this is a trough of uncertainty, but when governments see it’s not filtering down to their economies, sentiment will improve again.

Most of the people now being punted forward by PRs to get their faces on the networks and lie their talking heads off are witnesses any Court of Law would call “unreliable”.

Deconstructing this crap makes shooting fish in a barrel look downright difficult.
Starting with China, the 3% figure is pulled out of the air and not a single Beijing stat is to be trusted; if the markets there leave out 97% of all economic sectors, then whatTF is the point of these bourses; while the politburo may have ambitions to become a service economy, there is not one iota of evidence that the process has even started; that does seem to be the Party’s ambition, but can somebody tell me what these services will be, and even if they can do that, is that where the world is going – global economic activity consisting of nothing more than financial paper, retail outlets, hotels and airlines and restaurants catering for the people peddling the paper, and holidays for people by air with guaranteed pick-up from gated community to resort by B2 Stealth Bomber?

Banks never stronger? Bollocks: 10% of US and 15% of eurozone banks failed the last (pathetic) stress tests, and the UK’s RBS is a basket case. Leverage levels may have been cut, but the cuts are not in any realistic sense significant. This is pure propaganda.

Big Business CEOs are go-go with bullish confidence because they’re paid to go on telly and say that: but unless they go deaf when the distributors speak, they must know that Christmas comes but once a year, and sales – for example in France and Germany – are dire. Let’s be real even if only for a few seconds: if stuff was selling out thanks to consumer demand, then deflation would be under control and savings rates globally wouldn’t be rising.

Jobs are growing – but largely at the bottom end of the market on shorter hours than most workers would prefer. And no, wages are not rising in any way apart from tiny blips here and there: when they do start to rise (if they ever do) then they have 30% of lost ground since 1994 to pick up….and that isn’t going to happen overnight.

The US economy is sturdy? Then how come it’s only Wednesday and already there’s a consensus among market opinion leaders that all further Fed rate hikes are off: the Fed tried an experiment and now they know the effect, so that’s that? The US may be able to absorb most of its output, but the rest of the world isn’t feeling at all sturdy. Otherwise, Signor Draghi wouldn’t be about to launch yet another round of QE.

A bear market is now in force all around the world. The Goforits keep saying that doesn’t mean the economies are in recession…..to which the two answers are (i) if not, why not? and (ii) take out QE as an ‘economic activity’, and the world has been in recession since 2011 – and faces a slump in 2016.

Finally, governments can already see bourse uncertainty reflected in their economies. For heaven’s sake, this is not a one-way street: the uncertainties in financial markets come from the fact that central bankers keep promising economic uptake, and it keeps not happening. The eurozone is in recession, UK manufacturing is in recession, German exports are in recession, and French exports grew 0% in December.

All these smiling quacks looking like so many serene swans in Davos are either stupid (the economists) or paddling like hell below the waterline (the BSDs). They had an answer when oil was at $80 then $60 then $40, and now they still have one when it’s down to $27: “a lot of it is due to geopolitics”. That was true between $120 and $90, but it isn’t any more.

Whatever they’re saying to the audience, they are panic-stricken and desperately trying to think of another conjuring trick. They don’t have one: the Black Magic box is empty, there are no sweeties left, and nobody is yet asking them truly searching questions about what happens when people with a serious chocolate habit want to borrow in order to feed their addiction.  ‘Globalist connectivity’ ensures that the answer is “disaster”.

All of us using hitech like to think connectivity is a good thing. But when you have been crass enough to link all your bourses, banks, bonds, economies and debt globally and inextricably, connectivity will produce an inevitable – but completely unpredictable – worst-case scenario.

Everything today is connected. The specialist commodity firms facing dire losses, the stock market margin traders having to fund holds, the debt-laden Sovereigns needing to keep rates low, the Asian price advantage and the cash-strapped Western consumer, emerging nations propping up their wobbly currencies and looking to attract investment with higher rates, EU States desperate to float into devaluation to help exports, dictatorial corporacratic politics producing extremes of Opposition….no factor is any longer a desert island.

It is my commonsense opinion that 90+% of those connectivity pressures will fall, ultimately, upon the banking system. “Never more strong than it is now to bear that onerous responsibility” is poppycock. We might just as well say that a new genus of primrose makes the species stronger than ever in the light of a forthcoming monsoon of giant hailstones.

Globally, markets are tanking. Whether this is yet the Big Choke remains to be seen. What remains certain is that all the balm salesmen will be choking on their words in the coming months.

26 thoughts on “MARKETS PLUNGE CONTINUES: world stock averages off over 3%, explanation bollocks 50% up

  1. things Must be great if its all tanking…. how good will it be to get all the rubbish out and down the toilet……(after the monstrous hangover to come )

    Like

  2. If investments are tanking and legislation is in place to give everyone’s bank account a cypriot haircut then Joe average is between a rock and a hard place. Factor in uncontrolled hordes of young males coming into europe and I think we can shortly see social cohesion evaporating. There would seem to be a distinct lack of joined up thinking among the talking heads, bankers and politicians. The underlying issues are escalating way beyond simple economics.

    Like

  3. @Ricoh Clearly it has been another bitter day up in Scotland and it a big shame that the booze is not keeping the crisis at bay. So you have hanged yourself. Could you now take yourself outside and bury yourself too?
    All the rest of us like it in here. It’s democracy’s last redoubt

    Like

  4. I will state the obvious.The FTSE is full of Oil (Shell, BP, BG) and mining (Rio, BHPB,Antofagasta, Anglo Am, Glencore) and banks (HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds). See a connection, falling commodity prices, dodgy loans? Terry Smith at Fundsmith holds Imperial Tobacco and Reckitt Benckiser as his two main UK holdings. The end of the world is not nigh. The consumer in the Northern hemisphere is getting richer, at the expense of the Gulf, Putin’s cronies and Australia, Chile and South Africa.As I have said before, BUY when Glencore goes bust.

    Like

  5. This might seem bizzare, but ask the question if you are 100% using robots what economy do you have.
    NO ECONOMY! NO CURRENT ECONOMIC STATE! GAME OVER.
    Mr elite you are so toast, for me to survive I have to go against you and your minions to survive.

    As stocks and the rest of the manipulated s^&t falls at the moment I laugh and chuckle, flaming obvious but it really is what comes next? Then how do you deal with all those disaffected by elite entitlement. Non negotiable in any form …

    Nothing to discuss really, it is what it is,what it is today will mould the future of tomorrow but it looks grim as I am one person and the mob is milllions strong. I refuse to argue right or wrong now, for all humans it is where you find yourselves and how you find yourself.

    What I feel is coming is once the economic system fails then law and order follow quickly because without an income and no food YOUR ARE ENTITLED TO TAKE WHATEVER YOU WANT.

    All we have today is a retrace to 2009 but with one difference, all the entitled have been guaranteed their survival at your demise.

    OR THE LAST OPTION … THE ONLY OPTION … PRINT BABY PRINT. If they do not they are so scr$w^d. They will print if their life depends on it and their is no other option.

    TO REMAIN LEGAL DO NOT SHORT, BET THE QE INSTEAD.

    Like

  6. What ! China is going to be a frigging great ChineseLaundry and ditch manufacturing .What utter nonsense these people espouse.

    Like

  7. Distilled down to its essence, the situation is as follows, in my humble opinion:
    1. Banks and bankers have practiced the most sophisticated thievery on all the World’s economies for hundreds of years. As time has gone on, their methods have been perfected and their power over governments and peoples has increased. Research “The History of Banking” on Google for ample and easy reference.
    2. A few families are in control of the World’s banking, are immensely rich, and exercise control over governments and their military forces, and over markets and economies. They also exercise control over mass media and are very sophisticated in using propaganda in the form of news, and false flags, to keep populations and politicians in line.
    3. The major democracies of the World have been bankrupt since the 1970s. The illusion of increasing wealth has been maintained since then by deficit spending and increasing debt levels, while hiding the deficits and debts by accounting frauds and as “unfunded liabilities”. Government and personal debt levels are now far beyond any expectation of the ability of the debtors to pay even reasonable amounts of interest. GDP, government accounts, and employment figures are routinely faked to give the appearance of economic and fiscal health.
    4. Real GDP of 1st World economies has stagnated and fallen as real wealth producing activities such as manufacturing fled to low-wage, low-regulation countries like Mexico, Bangladesh, India, China, Malaysia, Viet Nam, etc. Businesses in the 1st World countries turned to financialization activities (“Casino Profits”) to show income and profits in place of industrial activity. Whenever the financialized bubble economies melted down, central banks re-inflated them by suppressing interest rates and flooding the World with liquidity, increasing debt levels to refresh the illusion of prosperity.
    5. Central banks have suppressed interest rates to zero (ZIRP) or near zero, and now to less than zero (NIRP) to (a) prevent collapse from increasing interest payment obligations on debts; (b) flood economies with liquidity through crony banks; (c)
    control exchange rates; and (d) force people to spend rather than save.
    6. All currencies are now fiat, backed only by faith. Competitive devaluation is now a primary economic strategy. Real wage earnings fall constantly. Military forces and intelligence agencies are used routinely to invade countries and depose governments in order to maintain the status of the US dollar and to plunder resources;
    7. All financial markets are massively manipulated to maintain the illusion of prosperity while the investing public are massively defrauded. Part of the profits of the frauds is used to buy politicians and to get immunity to prosecution;
    8. The World’s economies and people are so overburdened with debt that the only possibilities now are (a) default; (b) extend and pretend; or (c) war.
    9. Taxpayers/citizens have been reduced to the status of tax serfs to the wealthy. “Democracy” is now theater, an illusion of political control through elections that are carefully managed.
    10. 1% of the people of the World now hold more wealth than the other 99%.
    11. The few banking families have now succeeded in returning the World to the Feudal System of Medieval times, but with a better standard of living for the Tax Serfs.
    12. Meetings such as those of the Bilderberg group and Davos are planning the next step in the consolidation of power and wealth in the 1%. The illusions of democracy and civil rights for the masses will be maintained, while the surveillance mechanisms of the state will be increased, and civil rights diminished.

    Like

  8. It may be that the emporium, having been caught bonk raving starkers, falls into a liquidity void, or it may be that @william is right. It would be encouraging to think – whether it’s void or buoyed – that at least some modifications could be contemplated; sorry, I felt faint there for a minute. More likely Terry Giiliam was right and we’re heading for Brazil: they can’t fix it so they’ll bypass it.

    Like

  9. So when this POnziopoly games ends, who are our industrial intellectuals and politicians going to point the finger at?

    Like

  10. Why! Everybody else of course! It’s the true reflection of Neo-Evrything thought & dead. It’s near as damn it Antithetical thinking, with a joke middle ground, thinly disguised & misnamed as “compromise”. which is little more than a buffer until one or other party believes they can force & pursue their End-Game.

    It’ reductive & therefore hierarchical power game play. “King of the Castle”. The cognitive equivalent of the average 5-8 year old…

    Unfortunately, it seems like all the supposed adults are going along with the game…

    Like

  11. @ Hieronimusb. FWIW, the Fundsmith website shows, clearly, that Terry Smith is not in a bear market,given the rise in price since September 2015!

    Like

  12. @Jackie

    My take on this is that it is / will become all about SURVIVAL! We are all different in our family and financial circumstances, but there are really only three things that matter – warmth, food and shelter. It is impossible to know what will happen, how things will pan out and who will be affected, but I keep only the minimum in my bank account (the rest is cash), I’m investing in tinned and dry goods, alternative lighting (anything that doesn’t need electricity, but remember that children / old people/ pets and candles don’t mix) and, the latest project, a wood burning stove.

    There’s no point buying, say, large quantities of dried lentils if your family doesn’t like lentil soup or rissoles,but extra stocks of what you normally eat won’t ever be wasted. And don’t forget batteries, soap, toothpaste. If the sky doesn’t fall in, they’ll be useful in a bad winter.

    What it comes down to is to think about how you’d manage if you could not access an ATM for cash for a week, a month or even longer, and to have a stock of food for approx., 3 months. And also, how you’d keep warm if the heating were to go off in the middle to winter.

    And most importantly of all, given their recent track record, close any accounts you might have with Nat West / RBS. Stay away from high street banks (and solely internet banking as it severely limits access to your cash in an emergency) and move to a building society which offers a bank account (eg Nationwide, Yorkshire Building Society, etc.)

    Being a natural optimist, I’m hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst, just in case.

    Like

  13. NorthernSpirit: I also think like this. I stocked up on firewood in autumn and will keep our wood supplies high at all times from now on. We have propane gas bottles via our caravan – they last ages in my experience. What do you do for alternative lighting in your house? 12V battery lighting?

    This year I’m thinking of experimenting with DIY biogas. Not farting I must add!

    Like

  14. Pingback: Dumkopf | Gabriel Vents

  15. @JS Yes, 12V battery lighting, but also a DIY solar panel on porch roof (faces SW) which we calculate will power the fridge/freezer and some lights in the kitchen.

    Like

  16. @JS – still researching the solar panels, etc but have found everything, including book of diy projects, on ebay (uk), plus deep cell batteries, inverter, etc. Worth a look, I’d suggest.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s