ANALYSIS: Seven deadly reasons why the Iran deal will fail

hitstal

Dear old pals, jolly old pals

The smiley-smiley hoo-haa in the light of last week’s Iran ‘nuclear deal’ reminded me very much of the Cop21 self-congratulation jamboree in Paris late last year. The ‘deal’ was impeccably timed to add a dollop of low-fat cream to the Black Dude’s State of the Union message. Obama used it to the full: the only thing he didn’t do was wave a piece of paper and say “I have brought you peace in our time”, but then he knows the track record on that one – he’s far too smart to put his foot in a bucket.

In fact, Barry made such a good job of it, by the end of the SoU even I thought his Presidency hadn’t been too bad after all. A swift masochist slap to the face was enough, however, to bring me back to my senses. Uncle Tomobama has been a terrible President. He must know the following things perfectly well:

1. We got to this stage with Iran because the US used its clout to bully Tehran into submission, a new more moderate government is in power there now, and Benny Netto threw his toys, bile, and best yamulka out of the kibbutz nursery about Iranian nuclear intentions.
2. Iran bought into the deal in order to get back into the global economic community in general, and the oil market in particular. But that side of the deal is already a lose-lose for the Iranians: the last thing the oil sector needs at the moment is yet more oil coming out of the ground with nowhere to store it, and the world is in an economic slump. Iran has barely enough money to fund the street lighting let alone a QE programme.
3. This would be irrelevant had not the ‘reforming’ President Hassan Rohani not promised his boss Ali Khameini all kinds of goodies pouring into the Iranian economy as the quid pro quo for allowing him to sup with the filthy Satan. When they don’t materialise, I think we can assume it’s a safe bet that the President will be fired.
4. The Iranian people are about as far from stupid as it’s possible to be. Written off privately by most in the West as just another bunch of uppitty towel ‘eaded Ayrabs, that’s our ignorance not theirs: a majority of the population are not Arab/Semitic at all, and despite the fundamentalism of the Ayatollahs they are a far more discerning electorate than us.
5. Just watching interviews in the streets of Tehran (and reading despatches from the country) over the weekend, I felt their attitude was overwhelmingly sceptical of the ‘deal’. The US, they felt, could renege on it overnight, but not Iran: the reactors have been so comprehensively neutralised, they would still have the technical knowledge to get back on track, but we’d be talking years – maybe decades – not months, for that to unfold. Let’s face it, Washington will effect régime change there if they can long before then.
6. The government in power in Iran is, basically, on trial: “OK, we tried burning flags and taking Embassy staff hostage and that didn’t get us anywhere”. But if this new direction doesn’t bear fruit – and soon – let’s get real: if you’re flat broke and feeling oppressed, then burning flags and hanging Americans is much more fun than smiling after the manner of Ben Benanke on a quiet day.
Some of the grisly bared teeth and snarling lip behind Khomeini’s smile poked out briefly as he approved the agreement in a televised speech. While the news media reported that Iran’s real ruler had said “the only people unhappy with this deal are destructive extremists”, what he actually said was, “this deal will make only the Zionists, American extremists and other warmongers among our detractors unhappy”. How about the Salvation Army, Greenpeace, Kim Il Jong, and José Mourinho, Khomo…. what’s your view on their feelings?

Whatever one thinks of the rights and wrongs of Iran’s sense of injustice, my own view remains unchanged overall: to believe the guff about them developing nuclear capability for peaceful purposes you would have to be off with the fairies. Neither the science of what they’ve achieved nor the Iranian climate support such a defence: it is Page One that, for electricity generation, going for a combined solar and HEP/Wind solution would’ve been far cheaper and the results almost immediate: they have the sunlight scores, mountains, and regular high winds many other States would die to have.

The Iranian leadership élite holds at best a NIMBY attitude to Israel….at worst, their anti-Semitism is genocidal. And that, in the end, is why this deal won’t hold. It suits both sides for the time being, and as such is a triumph of mutual cynicism over antithesis. Which, funnily enough, is what they said about the 1939 Nazi-Soviet Pact too.

Recently at The Slog: One rule for soldiers, another for retired mothers

25 thoughts on “ANALYSIS: Seven deadly reasons why the Iran deal will fail

  1. If you are going to stab someone in the back it’s wise to first make sure they don’t have a gun in their pocket.

    And @ TG, yes, the yanks are now saying that Iran cannot test their ballistic missiles just in case they put nukes on them – you know, those nukes that they don’t have or that wont turn up on a russian transport *wink*wink*.

    Like

  2. This situation goes beyond a matter of just two sides.
    “The Iranian people are about as far from stupid as it’s possible to be.”
    Burning flags and taking Embassy staff is small time. (in comparison with civil aviation/skyscraper incidents)
    I feel that Iran will benefit from sound advice and support given by their genuine Russian friends to help see them through the BS situation that is sure to follow.
    Come on. Two small powerboats full of military personnel go astray?
    Just a whiff of BS to test the waters.

    Like

  3. I think it is the interaction between Iran and Saudi that will determine their fates and ours. Two counties in two very bad positions and a 1400 year long feud kept live by their hysterical ideological antagonism.
    The promise made to every population around the world was that they could join the modern world and participate in Western prosperity. Now we are in a global squeeze of colossal proportions. Every population will experience it as a vast betrayal by their government – and they will decide (rightly to some extent) that the diabolical US was behind it.
    Iran is a very ancient and distinguished nation, so it amazes me that the Ayatollahs are still in power. I hope you are right that their nuclear programme has been neutered but I am not confident
    Saudis and other Arabs are a headless rabble. If I had my way, the US would turn the whole peninsula into a single reservation for the native people, with no exits, Mecca & Medina turned into La Vegas gambling towns, with their poor tribals kept under sedation. Perhaps this is what Bin Laden thought was already happening to them.

    Like

  4. The problem is not the Iranians, it’s the Saudis. The Iranians are the smartest people between Italy and India. Their political situation is hardly optimal – but where is? Sure they want to expand their influence in the region and why not given the competition and threats. Do they want nukes? In my opinion no. They just want what the Germans and the Japanese have, the insurance policy to produce them if needed at relatively short notice. The Saudis already have nukes, bought and paid for and sitting in Pakistan. But I give Obama credit for this deal. It’s the best he could deliver and better than war and better than any of the neocon clowns in Washington, including Hillary Clinton, would have produced.

    Sure Obama has been a mega disappointment given the unrealistic hopes placed on him. The Presidency is inherently a weak office and he is a weak Uncle Tom. But he has got this deal and he did get Obamacare, truly awful it may be but it is better than nothing and Presidents since Teddy Roosevelt in 1908 had been trying unsuccessfully to get something. In retrospect he may look better than now and certainly better than Dubya and whomsoever succeeds him.

    Like

  5. John
    Re Iranian grey stuff:
    For a short period, some of the factory space at the site I worked at….was used by elderly fellows who in the past had worked in the field in Persia and Iraq ! They were of the opinion that they..the Persians .. were not Arabs! were extremely quick at picking on complex mechanical/electrical …. every bit as smart as the best of British!
    The type of stuff that often sent academics into shock.
    dofornow

    Like

  6. At my German class is a very sophisticated Iranian chap I’ll see him first time post Christmas this evening. The Iranians/Persians are pretty cook people. Actually the Iraqis were/are also very civilised and capable – I met some in my Saudi university. Dopiest of all sorry were the Wahhabi types.

    Like

  7. It has nothing to do with nukes and everything to with MacKinder.
    Iranians know this – you don’t get to five thousand years of history without knowing when to back off.

    Like

  8. Every nation that isn’t towing the neoliberal line is facing sanctions in one form or another,the free market is so successful it can’t face competition

    Like

  9. There is an important lesson here for Russia.
    Iran is a much smaller, much poorer and much weaker country than Russia. Though by no means an undeveloped country, it lacks the vast scientific, technological and industrial resources that Russia has.
    Nor does Iran have the global influence or the advantage of permanent membership of the UN Security Council that Russia has.The sanctions the US imposed on Iran hurt Iran far more than the sanctions the US has imposed on Russia have hurt Russia.Like Russia Iran also has a small but very vocal minority that hankers for rapprochement with the US at literally any price. In 2009 this minority tried unsuccessfully to stage a colour revolution in Tehran – just as Russia’s similar minority tried – and failed – to stage a colour revolution in Moscow in 2011.
    In the end, by standing firm on all the essentials whilst acting at all times with maximum flexibility, Iran has seen the challenge off.The result is Iran has emerged the unequivocal victor from this affair, with its position today stronger than it was a decade ago – before the attack on it began.
    If Iran can win this sort of duel against the US, then so can Russia.
    Russia is in a much better position to do it than Iran was.
    There is no reason in fact why Russia should not do it, and there is no reason to doubt it will.

    Like

  10. There are a whole load of very objective, intelligent people in industry, commerce or hiding behind the windows in Iran.
    To survive in most of the past decades they had to toe the line and appear subservient to the system -just like we are all going to have to do if we lose our own struggle.
    From outside it may appear that Iran is just another religiously controlled Arab country, but it is far from that. They are Asians for a start, they were doing trade deals with the Tsar’s Russia over 100 years ago, and if the majority had their way, Iran would be a secular state. I suspect Rouhani is a pretty modern thinker.
    I am sure they know how far to trust USA, and I am sure they have done their own arithmetic on the low price of oil and the impact it is going to have on Saudi Arabia and the GCC. I think they have patience, and I think they still have enough gold to buy foreign equipment and expertise.
    I think Riyadh will get into trouble far quicker than Tehran will.

    Like

  11. -Tehran has over 8 million people, not many of them living in squalor. The country has over 70 million population.
    This was a very modernising nation until the Shah fell, and part of the reason he was bounced was because he had plans to re-write the oil deal with the major producers. The other reason, of course was that the Shah was weak and corrupt, and his monstrous SAVAK brute squad had terrorised the people for too long, keeping him in power. Khomeini’s arrival was not expected to mean “new boss, same as the old boss” in terms of terrorising the people.
    As you might have suspected, the Shah had been put back on the throne in the 1950’s by the good-ole CIA, with help from London …….

    Like

  12. Is the number Seven missing from the above article? If it’s not supposed to be there & I’m missing something, I wont be surprised, it’s one of those days.

    In a world of Nations that seem to be reading between the lines of, the between the lines, of the between the lines of their first lines. What about dropping all the recursive stuff & being honest. Nobody would believe it & you get integrity back on side… ? At least you will know what you are talking about, a strange unaccustomed experience for many, & you might get to expose “The pants on Fires”..

    Like

  13. I do not believe for a moment that Iran has been developing nuclear weapons for at least a decade. This has always been a false claim by Israel, a claim over which even some of their own senior intelligencence people have contradicted Netanhayu In the past. However it serves both the Israelis, the Saudis and their bought members of Congress to keep up this pretence and to keep alive the prospects of a Sunni-Shia conflict. The prospects of this detente lasting between the US and Iran suffers from considerable oppostion from the hard-liners on both sides, but hopefully Europe may prove an ameliorating influence here. Additionally there are many businessmen in the West who are salivating at the thought that Iran is supposed to have returned to it the 100bns or so of dollars which were confiscated after the Shah was overthrown. Already Airbus is supposed to have been awarded a contract for over a 100 new airliner and their is a lot more to come.

    Like

  14. @Bran1

    Exactly, The available evidence would suggest that Iran has not had an active nuclear weapons programme for considerable time if it ever did, although given that the rogue state Israel is given a pass on nuclear weapon possession and development, I ‘ve no idea why Iran shouldn’t be allowed to have them. HIstorically, unlike Israel, Iran has been far more respectful of International Law and has not been involved in any agressive actions against its neighbours for several centuries. The disgusting support by the U.S. and Israel of the terrorist group M.E.K. that murdered in cold blood several Iranian physicists is insupportable.

    http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-s-mossad-trained-assassins-of-iran-nuclear-scientists-report-says-1.411945

    Imagine the outcry if prominent British physicists were murdered on the streets of Cambridge by members of the IRA trained and funded by the Russian Federation.

    BTW JW – Any evidence of Iranian antisemitism? As far as I know, Iranian Jews live extremely happily in Tehran and other Iranian cities and have repeatedly declined the offer to move to Israel. I suspect this refusal would be unlikely if antisemitism is as widespread in Iran as you suggest, and particularly if it were genocidal. Are you not just promulgating the long-debunked mistranslation of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s speech in 2005? As you are undoubtedly aware, there is all the difference in the world between wiping a country off the map and wiping an ‘occupying regime’ off the map. The regime is not the people, and evidenced by Camerloon and assorted henchmen, and the UK public.

    Like

  15. Building a nuke that works is not the same thing as building a reliable and small enough to be deliverable nuclear weapon and then there is the means to deliver it accurately. So if Iran would have continued to pursue that then in X or XX more years they would have something to deliver that might work, and might not, and hit the target, or not. And what would that give them? A chance at revenge if someone launched a nuclear attack on them and so a moderate deterrent. If they decided to launch first then they would have several happy minutes to savor their power and then the US and Israel and the Saudis to for all we know, would retaliate and wipe out every major Iranian city and thus end 4000 years of Persian culture.

    That little bit of deterrence is the golden thread which can ensnare any politician but it doesn’t make any practical sense. Hats off to the Iranians if they actually chose to abandon the project based upon common sense as opposed to doing the ‘I’ve got a big one’ routine so popular among politicians and patriots the world over.

    Like

  16. I’m not sure the past and present leadership of Israel other Jewish people don’t think in similarly disparaging ways about other Nations. Would it be too hard to find such a offensive list against the Iranians or Muslims in general?

    The alleged genoicidal attitude of Our-Man-Dinner-Bad towards Israel is nothing of the sort. The best you could say is that it is ‘suicidal’. Irans use of Nuclear weapons against Israel would result in Mutually Assured Destruction.

    I kinda think Iran possesing Nuclear Weapons would stop them from being the latest failed nation state benefitting from Americas special brand of Democracy egged on by Israel.

    As always all sides are liars.

    Like

  17. I keep hearig how smart the Iranians are That is of course why they have this hard on for Israel that never quits. That smart of course let every Jew in the whol world Know that you pare never giving up your plan to anhialate them. Now I am sure no fan of the bansters but it seems to me that pax america at whatever cost is stlii better than any alternative, and I mean realistic alternative that I have heard of All the other seem to end in some sort of nuclear cloud

    Like

  18. @Anonymous

    If there is a plan to ‘ahnialate’ the Jews it is contained in the teachings of many U.S. Christian Zionists who need the ‘Jews’ to return to Israel for the End Times prophesies to be fulfilled. Their literal interpretation of these prophesies suggests that when the real Messiah arrives, the Jews must either convert to Christianity or perish. I find it fascinating that Jewish Zionists and Christian Zionists have made common cause over the support of Israel as they obviously have such completely different motives, although I would argue that both groups are united in their true anti-semitism.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s