AND OIL’S DEAD-CAT BOUNCE IS OVER
I have explained before my belief in the three key-market psychological levels that could easily trigger a panic: 16,000 on the Dow, 6,000 on the FTSE, and 3,000 on the Shanghai. Two of them are now below those levels, and the Dow futures for its session later today do not look good…..all three monitors are down 1.7 to 2%.
You should now regard this as officially the second global correction following the first one last September. Whether this is The Big One remains to be seen: but either way, there are clear differences in sentiment on the news media between then and today:
- Mainstream talking heads are starting to nail QE as a busted flush….and as the deliniator between this crisis and all previous ones.
- Establishment figures and analysis firms are being more blunt – using phrases like “sell everything” and “we are about to pay for a decade of denialism”.
- Big hedge funds are being extremely bearish and even pulling out of the markets
- The commodities ‘narrative’ is desisting from ‘supply’ bollocks and started to show some sense at last about the dramatic demand-slump.
Having become good boys this week, Iran is adding to the oversupply situation: but that doesn’t explain a sudden 4.2% plunge to 12-year lows today so far. We are heading for $25 oil, and that is going to bring some horrific consequences along for the trip.
Russia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Venezuela will quickly move from the bumpy seats over the tail to the baskets in the hold. All of these – but especially the first two – mean some potentially dramatic changes in geopolitics, notably in the face of Arab nationalism and fundamentalism. (At a lower international but equally disastrous domestic level, Canada too is looking at the most serious crisis it’s faced in recent years).
The case for fracking is now dead and buried under several very heavy boulders, and the industry in the US has dried up almost completely. Whatever risible case there was for it in the UK is now neither ecologically or economically sound. (And by the way, way isn’t Osborne buying every litre of oil he can lay his hands on at these prices?)
Thanks to US-driven obduracy on the subject of developing beyond oil, global dependence on its energy and enormous by-product industries means that the effects will be both numerous, and – in a collective sense – impossible to predict. Whether commodities trading firm collapses set some banks a-wobbling or the Putin régime gets into trouble in ways that go way beyond economics, the spectrum is one that goes beyond dominoes.
Very few globalists are Buddhists. That’s why – although they know everything is connected – Buddhists would never be dumb enough to create an economic system where every virus was connected to every person in the world with no resistance to it….at the press of a pc button.
Nuts, crazy, insane, deranged etc etc etc.