Memo to fatcat Blairites & UKip losers: Corbyn isn’t going away – and neither is Cameron

osspin

When Tory spin runs out of span /Who will then be our main man?

In between trying to do a weekend shop, and working out why everything from the wiring via the immersion heater to the log fire doesn’t work properly in the barn conversion, I spent yesterday catching up on events both micro and macro in the country of my birth.
At a macro level, it seems that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party won the Oldham by-election with an increased share of the vote – to a level as high as anything Michael Meacher ever achieved. But Labour detractors said this was the very least Corbyn “needs to do to remain safe in the job”. Er, this despite him having gained a sweeping First Round victory in the leadership  contest with 60% of the votes cast – nearly four times as many as his nearest challenger. My oh my, what high standards the Labour Boss Class sets when the People elect someone not to their liking.
As for UKip, well….what can one say? They failed yet again to persuade absent Tories to vote for them, and enjoyed almost exactly the same rise in the share of vote as Labour. This despite a very large immigrant population in Oldham….which Nigel Farage is accusing of having ‘bent’ the vote. Even had they bent 100% of the postal votes (a feat even I think unlikely) UKip would still have lost. The fact is, the Party continues to underachieve under Hairgel’s leadership – this despite the EC having tried everything in their power over the last week to hand the Kippers thousands of votes.
But while Corbyn defies the dire predictions of the very Labour metrojerks who handed the Tories another five years in power, the other C word Cameron continues on his endlessly deviating mission to persuade the electorate that down is left and upright is centre. Blairite Labour’s response to this is to keep handing him permission to do it, while waiting for its chance to show that it could do it even more effectively if required.
So moving to the micro level now, what exactly is this ‘it’ I’m talking about? I mean, is the Labour Establishment really damaging the Party’s credibility that much? My predictable answer is ‘yes, of course it is’. Those who are ‘aspiring’ or ‘through the tape’, ‘comfortable’ or just plain rich really do not get (or choose not to see) the degree to which UK government is now turning to theft from the weak on a grand scale. The fact that the ‘progressives’ (rebranded Blairites) see this as not something they can do anything about suggests that they, not the Corbynistas, are in the wrong Party. The Highgate Hoorays are an alien species to the Oldham electorate; at least they get what Corbyn’s on about – even if (like me) they don’t buy into his Internatonale/Red Flag flying credentials.
While Rickaay and Byancoh were bribed by the Thatcher administrations to accept privatisation and demutualisation, at least the Mad Handbag gave them instant share profits and bonuses to seal the deal. Now there’s nothing left to screw up with full-frontal greed – and the wheels are coming off Friedman’s academic applecart – Camerlot is coming after those who did worst of all during the Neolib Putsch….and who have the least ability to resist, as a result of poverty, lousy public transport – and motivation levels decimated by years of pauperisation and denigration at the hands of anti-welfare politicians and the media.
The fact that they’re not only doing this but accelerating the process gives away the real situation Britain is in. Hidden for the time being behind the acrid smoke of Osborne budget lies, risible international comparisons and Cameron’s cherry-picked statistics, the Truth is seeping out via Government actions. Or rather, it would be if half the population wasn’t asleep, and the other half Alright Jack.
When the female pension age was raised to 66, Osborne said the changes wouldn’t come into effect until 2020. They’re here now, and it’s still 2015. This act alone reflects the terrifying conclusions of the Centre for Fiscal Studies (itself co-founded by the Blessed Margarine) and those UK wealth managers with whom I stay in touch – viz, Osborne had his deficit sums wrong, underestimated the bite on growth, failed to pump action into real UK manufacturing expansion, bet wrong on EU recovery levels – and now faces a total fiscal debt spiralling upwards at a rate perilously close to uncontrollable. Believe me, if you think things are bad for those at the lower end, they’re going to get much worse very quickly.
The last vestiges of the baby-boomers are now in their sixties. Around 750,000 women in particular – asked to put off their pension for six years – simply aren’t in a position to do so. Also, the Government has no right to ask this of them: the delaying of their access to NI payments is fraud, pure and simple.
Very soon, somebody high up in Whitehall is going to broach the issue of the parlous financial state of at least two British banks – one of whom is RBS, whose accounts are close to pure fiction, and about whose endless subs and ripoffs I’ve been writing since 2010. There is no way that the Treasury can afford to pump any more into failed banks, which is who (naturally) they’ve started calling us creditors, not customers.
The level of customer ‘cover’ haha was dropped four months ago from £85,000 to £75,000, using the surreal reason of euro weakness – as if many UK bank account holders might live in the eurozone. The Government has no fallback position at present; In the eventuality of RBS’s collapse, I understand Camerlot’s half-baked plan is for the Bank of England to print enough money to pay off qualifying depositors, and then slash the cover to something like £15,000. But bank panics don’t happen like that: at least one multi-subsidiary domino will be knocked over by the demise of RBS.
By that time, everyone west of the Urals will be printing fiat currency like mad to stave off similar collapses on their own doorsteps. The only possible outcome of that is hyperinflation. Market reactions to the decision of the ECB  to give off not entirely gung-ho vibes about Ezone QE2 shows just how QE has now become every Bourse’s tranquiliser. But it also shows that the ‘slip is showing’ in the EU just as it is in Japan and China. The PBOC is borrowing to prop up the Shanghai: given the effect of austerity on ClubMed, the ECB will have to print to produce the sort of bazooka the markets pretend they’re looking for. As for Japan, it’s a basket case being turned upside down by surreal Abenomics.

Look ahead to a 2018 UK, and imagine all these cockups coming home to roost just as the folly of Syrian bombing begins to hit the UK in the shape of Jihadist atrocities.

Who, I wonder, will be ahead in the opinion polls by then – Corbyn or Cameron? Will there be an EU to leave? How many UK banks will be in the mire? How big will Britain’s trade deficit be? And perhaps most disturbing of all, will a British Emergency Powers Act finally hand all the cards to the Black Knights of Camerlot?

Closely connected at The Slog: Keep 45% of the electorate happy, rule forever

25 thoughts on “Memo to fatcat Blairites & UKip losers: Corbyn isn’t going away – and neither is Cameron

  1. Emergency Powers already on the books! Not surprised if there were a secret protocol in EU treaties to enable the phantom Brussels Army to restore ORDER. Sheer madness.

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  2. I am seeing George Osborne triple in your photograph.
    lIs this intentional or have I already had nineteen Bksck Velvets over the eight this morning ??

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  3. JW.

    Fully expect it to get worse and yes the poorest to be hung out to dry by the elites to preserve themselves at all costs.

    It is also why I fully expect a civil war at some point and looking forward to it so yes I do hope it is in my lifetime.

    Between then and now though I expect the UK mercs called police / security services / GCHQ et-al to be slowly handed more and more draconian powers making them the elitist army against the poor. Slowly but surely, one Osborne pace at a time we move to that old feudal / slave system. It never actually left us just disappeared under the disguise of plenty to go round hidden in debt, but we were still being farmed as cattle.

    THIS WAR WAS ONLY DEFERRED FROM DECADES AGO by economic manipulation.

    Now when you look at Putin / Xi and their societies we are moving to them anyway. Guess what? Why not have a Chinese or Russian leader and their political system to erase our crap that way we actually get change. The level of human rights will be no different to theirs in the end anyway and where this is all going.

    All governments lie and decieve, it just seems the UK government tells the biggest porkies on the planet.

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  4. I only heard from top secret sources yesterday that France review of there constitution is going to include a possibility of permanent marshal law without review in it!
    Anyone else heard similar in France yet?

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  5. Interestingly enough it is now being said that the rich that are building mega basements are really just preparing themselves for what’s to come, they are effectively building underground fortresses or, possible the most expensive coffins in the world?

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  6. I’m afraid the GCHQ and security pimp-up are for the middle class. They DWP is for the majority to keep them cowed though constant poverty interspersed with periods of destitution aka sanctions, for both the waged & unwaged. I honestly think that the MMT economic analysis and solution to Osborne’s “folly” is spot on, but we might be missing the point, in that the outcome is a fascist state by design, and little to do with actual economics. Why else would Camerpork be sucking up to the worlds’ despots. other than to ensure we have a gang of supporters through the UN etc.?

    Rather like the recent changes to BTL taxation, which will drive many of the smaller investors out of business, i.e. those who have used the BTL market to avoid having money in banks & financial products, and many are wittering on about “tories, landlords, natural allies”. They too are missing the point There are no “natural allies” of the Idiot & Cams version of Tories except massive corporations and a tiny elite. The BTL taxation changes, as far as I can tell, are to beu sed to force the assets from small to large investors, and to get the money back into the banks for recapitalisation to keep the Danse Macabre going a bit longer. Hence the changes to security limits on depositors is part of the same move, as was the pension cash-in. The counter attack needs to be able to match the narrative of the actual jigsaw of small moves here & there to spell out the bigger picture. MMT will provide the road map back, but indisputable logic and proof alone will not provide an adequate strategy for the battles ahead. Corbyn, or someone from that part of Labour) may be the on the poster leading the opposition to Camerlot as it seems the more the right & their rags (and the internal Labour right-wing rebels) have done to try & harm, it can be seen from the by-election result against the back-drop of the most scurrilous attacks regarding the Syria vote, it has actually had the opposite effect.

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  7. The evidence does seem to be that DEFLATION has a strong grip on us all, even though the wish is for just a little inflation.
    Look at commodity prices, absolutely shocking , with no reason for a recovery given the falling demand in every quarter.
    IMHO a currency crisis worldwide will be needed to level the playing fields – but probably not without a war or two on a large scale. We are in uncharted territory, and $ physical is KING.

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  8. In the Strategic Defence Review. that nice Mr Cameron announced the forming to two new ‘Strike Brigades’, each of 5,000 soldiers, to act as a rapid-response force, able to be deployed immediately to fight terrorists or ‘others threatening the country’. Wonder who he had in mind ? (Clue, it isn’t ISIS/ISIL/Daesh)
    One based in the North, one in the South – nowhere near Damascus……..

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  9. Ricoh. True about Deflation, Jw does mention the sleight of hand re deposit guarantee cut vs euro. We now get told that deflation as compared to a B.o.e target Inflation rate of 2% represents a wages boost. Crackheadonomics

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  10. I am at this point in my life one of the poorest. My children are fine middle aged and middle of the road in their forties. Unless we get real and get into bed with Putin, who would throw his ground forces in and annihilate this evil we all are living with we do not stand a cat in hells chance of being able to chat like we do now in 10 years time.

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  11. We live in strange times. Everywhere the USS and their allies have fought in the Middle East the end result has been destabilisation and chaos in those countries attacked. There are some very dubious theories around suggesting that destroying the political system and infrastructure is a deliberate policy (Today Britain has bombed oil installations in eastern Syria). This does make it easier to steal the oil and dictate pipeline routes In the UK the steady militarisation of the police is doing an excellent job of alienating those they are supposed to protect. The present crop of politicians are largely a joke- Eton, Oxford and a couple of years as a political aide prior to selection. They have the life experience of a goldfish or perhaps more accurately a tadpole, as most tadpoles I have seen seem to prefer to live in murky waters.The economic situation appears dire but so long as we can sell arms and munitions to the highest bidder it will be ok. If the situation escalates to full world war there will be even more money to be made and concurrently civil rights will be further reduced and surveillance increased. It is not a happy future from my perspective . The major corporations are the only winners as we are reduced to the status of serfs and uncontrolled immigration dilutes are nationhood and incomes

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  12. We can predict that as we near bankruptcy there will be a massive ISIS attacks (that nobody saw coming, though all the perops are already known to the ‘security services’) followed by a state of emergency followed by a ‘nous sommes en guerre’ speech from Cameron…

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  13. Iain, do you remember when NATO bombed Serbia in the 90s?

    The official version was that it was to force the JNA (Yugoslav army) out of Kosovo.

    The air-strikes took out ALL the bridges on the Danube, effectively stopping the Eastern European trade with points east of Belgrade and the Black Sea. They destroyed the television station and innumerable other civic ameneties.

    Well, one man I spoke to witnessed the last Yugoslav aircraft leaving Pristina airport, with difficulty as the control tower had broken down. Not due to bombing, just a couple of fuses that had blown.

    All the tanks that the airforces had targeted (?) left the area and went home, apart from one that had a mechanical problem and was recovered a few days later.

    So much for attacking the enemy, then. My guess is that the air-strikes from this side of Syria will have much the same effect.

    News from Teheran showed that the Russian air-strikes had hit targets of the kind that allowed refugees to return home:
    http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940802000381

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  14. I think the establishment know what’s coming which is why they’re so terrified of the apparently ‘unelectable’ Corbyn. Their tactic is to try to marginalise anyone who agrees with him by constantly denouncing him as ‘hard-left’. But it won’t work this time, as too many people from across the political are inclined to give him a fair hearing after decades of warmongering stooges.
    I agree on Farage. I’ve become increasingly convinced he is being used by the Tories. I find it very suspicious that he goes on about postal voting irregularities in Oldham while making no fuss whatsoever about his own South Thanet seat.

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  15. Tom. If i recall Jw has mentioned potential murky uses of demographics.
    A letter in guardian recently postulated labour ukip voters in May having followed thru whilst tory equivalent went back to vote Cons. People like Y.b.f etc might have realised that targeting (rightly) aggrieved “mug-punters” in a marginal seat was a brilliant wheeze. In our last G.e even much touted Stathead/Psephologist Nate Silver got it wrong after all.

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  16. @ skirmish seconded.
    Talking of warriors did anyone else see Julius Malema on BBC Hardtalk other night. S-africa’s answer to Bernie Sanders?
    Less warlike – mr michael fallon skulking in a hardened bunker @ Akrotiri with a Typhoon in background (on 24hr rotation at a bbc near you!).

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  17. What you should actually follow is the rugby-scrum-style journalism of the DT and Spectator concerning the Labour Party. It is a never ending diatribe of the following:

    1. Labour must be absolutely united rather than having an open debate.
    2. No decision taken following open debate can ever be any good.
    3. Corbyn is a pathological liar as he allows free votes but is about to deselect any rebellious MPs.
    4. DT journalists should be promoting putsch in the Labour Party.
    5. You cannot be a responsible Government without bombing Libya.
    6. The Labour Right must split from the Maoist Left.
    7. We journalists at the DT/Spectator have all had careers in public service, so are uniquely placed to understand the reality of what makes good government in the presence of media psychopaths who are the very last people in this country capable of representing the people (those in the Guardian really aren’t any better either, to be fair).

    The underbelly script of various Labour bloggers is that the Labour Party needed Corbyn to ‘get Labour to face up to defeat’, but he must be ousted well before 2020 to have a ‘proper leader’, who they believe to be Burnham, Umunna or Jarvis.

    The sane view of the Oldham by-election is that it is a safe Labour seat, they had a local candidate known to have worked as a local councillor and 6 months after a General Election most parties are bankrupt so won’t spend any money campaigning. There was undoubtedly some postal vote fraud, but nowhere near enough to change the result. However, it is worrying that the Labour Party are sanguine about such activities and I for one would like some very senior Labour scalps thrown out of public life for having condoned it, organised it or promoted it. And I would also like it to be the focus of major democratic confrontation of a section of the Muslim community for carrying it out………

    Overall, the Establishment Media is now a uniform neoliberal hegemony and journalists work for most of the titles as freelancers, whoring themselves out to whoever will pay them whatever for whatever. Every article is commissioned as an advertorial and every day you have totally contradictory articles run side-by-side. If you wanted to create schizophrenia by media, you are going about it in exactly the right way!!

    As Labour have not yet put forward what their new substantive policy framework is, it’s pretty impossible to judge Jeremy Corbyn yet. He’s not sartorially suited to being Prime Minister, but that can be changed pretty much overnight. He’s not suited to rottweiler-style PMQs and has tried to change the format a bit, for which he should be praised. He has inherited a party still fairly full of Blairite neoliberal Tories who think they have a right to rule and, if they think they can’t, will work for Tory papers to trash Corbyn (Dan Hodges and John McTernan being perhaps the two most hate-filled journalists in Britain today).

    What is for sure, if your sole source of ‘news’ is the Daily Telegraph, you will be reading a daily diet of play-the-man hatred.

    What is a shame is that there is not a similar stable of fora for play-the-man attacks by packs of right-hating rottweilers targeting CMD, Gergeous George, Boris the Doris-Shagger etc etc etc.

    All one asks for is a similar mauling of both sides.

    I started a campaign of ‘play the journalist’ a couple of years ago to make a few of them realise what vituperative insults of them and their families entails. I don’t think they like it to be honest. But it won’t stop me doing it. That’s the only thing they understand……..

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