mirageUS61115We are being served up seared bollocks about US recovery

Allegedly strong US jobs data emerges just at the time when the FOMC needs a reason to hike rates and keep the Dollar strong – and central bankers need cheaper gold.

Sound paranoid? Perhaps….but now observe these counter-intuitive data in that context:

  • Manufacturing metal prices continue to collapse
  • Atlanta Fed Pr:esident Dennis Lockhart, a well-respected centrist and a voter on the Fed’s monetary policy committee this year, told a conference in Switzerland, ” [the Fed] in its last policy statement was deliberately trying to convince investors of a possible December interest rate hike”.
  • The US labour force participation rate remains largely unchanged, and the share of workers employed part time for economic reasons remained elevated. Worker compensation rates are static
  • Chinese exports, World trade, eurozone gdp and ex-USA manufacturing expectations are near-universally down. So where is the growth to marry with ‘US recovery’ data?

Now look at this very telling chart on US Dollar, currencies, gold and bond rates (I’ve given you a hint in red) and tell me it’s a coincidence:

Odd1out61115I rest my case, M’lud.

Earlier at The Slog: Brexit, Newscorp & the BBC – three-way Civil War in the Tory Party