A year ago, the FTSE was at 7175. Today it’s at 62OO. Last March, the Dow was near 18,200; today it’s down to 16,500. The slippage is consistently out-gunning the rallies. Yesterday, the Dow slid down throughout the day, losing nearly 300 points. It just sort of slithered. No sign of support at all: not a panic yet, but But Bulls were conspicuous by their absence. The FTSE also fell away badly during the afternoon session.
For the first time in some years, the two best known business indexes both face a very clear emotional threshold today: 16,000 and 6,000. Psychologists understand why such things are important, and so do market directionalisers and manipulators. It’s the crowd thing again: eat sh*t, 10 trillion flies can’t be wrong. But this time, there’s an added element.
Slowly but now surely this year, there have been signs of first major players and then minor-majors taking positions, and the Sun headline is ‘outta here’. Eight days ago, the board of the California State Teachers’ Retirement System (Calstrs) – facing a large baby-boomer cashout – was felt by many in the know to be on the verge of shifting some $20 billion of its portfolio out of stocks to adopt a “risk mitigation strategy.”
Bafflement about what to do next is rife. In the last month, there have been eight so-called ‘herd all or nothing days’: this is when the mass of investors are so confused and nervous, any direction is slavishly followed. It’s a rare phenomenon, and that many herd days have never before been seen in such a short period. In their current states, both the FTSE and the Dow could plunge very quickly if some big speed-of-light money goes bear.
The wisdom of crowds was always an ironic observation. But across the board of human experience this week, the crowds have been in control. The rigid Left crowd (and most Berliners) have been resisting every last vestige of empirical evidence in order to stick to their barmpot view that every migrant refugee coming out of Syria is a hero, and one can march 800 miles in a day and still emerge with impeccably clean loafers. Everywhere at the airport yesterday, young people carried bags saying ‘I welcome refugees’ and ‘Je suis Aylan’. I find this auto-jerk terrifyingly Owellian.
Equally, the swivel-eyed Right sees swarms, swamps and hordes of refugees whereas in truth they’re still only 0.3% of the EU population at most. Farage is, as I predicted, turning the OUT campaign into a immigration scare-fest: in many ways, he does have a point, but I want to leave the EU because it is a grasping, bullying, fascist, sovereignty-smashing Capone mob – not because it allows freedom of movement.
There is zero safety in numbers in 2015 – there is a great deal of danger, and that’s it. The paedo-hunters are having a field day this morning as Jonathon King once more finds himself on charges referred to uniformly across the UK media as “child sex offences”. They’re nothing of the sort: some forty years old in most cases, the charges relate to homosexual sex acts before the age of consent was lowered. The hypocrisy of calling a 15 year old boy a child while at the same time suggesting that 16 year olds should get the vote is beyond belief.
King is no more a paedophile than I am or Paul Gambaccini is. The campaign of distortion continues, and we should not see it as a coincidence that this arrest has come in the same week as the launch of Gambaccini’s book: this little gambit has spoiler written all over it. On the one hand the Left élite drivels on about homophobia, and then applauds the homophobic arrest of King on charges four decades old with no validity beyond the technicals. When the Homosexual Law Reform Act was passed in 1966, did the Met then arrest Leo Abse ten years later for historical offences? They did not: in those days, coppers didn’t work for media owners – they had better things to do, like arresting the Krays for instance.