This doesn’t happen for nothing.
Did Yellen want to get the news of ‘no change/deferred change’ out there quickly to pump some more false confidence into a Wall Street still directionalising saps towards new stock market highs? Or were the Fatties among the media pack jumping the gun? Or – most likely – did the Fed fear an insider trade was about to go, and thus threw it off balance by going 15 minutes early?
Whatever the Truth haha might be, there has long been suspicion in the US Congress about convenient Fed leaks turning millionaires into billionaires. The Justice Department is still looking into an apparent leak from the Federal Reserve in late 2012. Only a month ago, the Fed somehow posted on its website a shall we say “searching” internal staff economic forecast: such things are usually subject to the 5 year rule on disclosure.
At any rate, as predicted here this morning, the Fed went with yes-and-no-with-reservations. The official wording was unintentionally hilarious as always: ‘conditions for a rate increase are approaching, but not at hand’.
They were approaching in a sports car, but now they’re on foot, albeit not at hand, as such. And as a rate increase on foot is worth two at hand, Wall Street can carry on having a ball at our expense. In the light of Chinese events and wobbly stock futures trading, this was enough for the markets to instantly make American borrowing even cheaper….although Yellen’s whisper didn’t do quite enough to calm down an increasingly Doubtful Dow: it’s 140 off at around 0.75% down, but not going anywhere fast.