I am the man who became a Day 1 member of the Stillborn British SDP. I am the man who installed a spiral staircase just before tearing a medial knee ligament. I am the man who planted early water-dependent vegetables just prior to the SW French climate recording its worst Spring drought in history. I am the man who, yesterday, realised he had built a Japanese terrace screen with no means of getting the saw’s mains lead out of the finished screen. I am the man who became a eurozone resident just as the currency turned to loo-paper.
So I must confess to having been a little concerned about my blogosphere credibility as Tuesday dawned and there was no sign whatsoever of the one-eyed Merkel thrashing out a Tsipras deal (having been given her orders by President Obama) as predicted here. Tonight, however, I think my sources deserve a big Slog pat on the back. The unfolding events leave me as uneasy as ever, but things are panning out roughly as expected.
Yesterday I posted:
‘My hunch this morning is that the eurogroupe clowns will continue to stonewall, apply illegal pressure to the ordinary Greek populace, and perhaps even pose in public media as a reasonable bunch of chaps waiting for a ‘reasonable’ Greek proposal. But left to themselves, when something is proposed, they will give out with the usual “interesting but it doesn’t go far enough” crap designed to load yet more homework onto the Greek government.’
All the summit-leak advance spin pointed in that direction. German über-Sun tabloid Bild showed Geli in a Prussian helmet as the Iron Chancellor. But I also reported:
‘Last week, I understand there was a flurry of extended phone calls between Barack Obama and Angela Merkel’
Today, there was a release at 11.00 am Washington time:
‘The President and German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke by phone this morning about Greece. The leaders agreed it is in everyone’s interest to reach a durable agreement that will allow Greece to resume reforms, return to growth, and achieve debt sustainability within the eurozone. The leaders noted that their economics teams are monitoring the situation in Greece and remain in close contact.’
Bear in mind that this was 5pm CET. It seems the Black Dude wasn’t happy with the Stonewall Jackson mode being adopted by Brussels-am-Berlin. It’s alleged that he had the same beef as me and millions of others: why was the eurogroupe leaking the usual ‘Greeks turned up with nothing’ bollocks when, given Sunday’s OXI vote, the onus was surely on the egroupe stone statues to respond?
Back in Athens, the Fifth Column has been working overtime on Telegraph journalist Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. If his own column later was anything to go by, AEP swallowed the To Potami smears hook, line and stinker: he reported that Tsipras called the Referendum expecting lo lose. This is nonsense: while the deeply and consistently suspicious poll predictions of Alco showed the result going YES and then ‘too close to call’, Syriza’s own surveys were predicting 55/45 NO…as did my tiny qualitative opinion-leader study in seven Hellenic locations. The YES campaign brought 35,000 to Syntygma Square, the OXIdisers attracted 240,000. As I posted throughout, the result was only ever going one way.
There is one overriding reason why President Obama wants an end to this facile damnation of Syriza, and an amicable solution to the Germany 0 Greece 0 result so cleverly predicted by the Python team nearly fifty years ago: his own Pentagon, CIA and NATO advisers have given Barry the Bay of Pigs outcome advice when it comes to régime change in Athens. That’s to say, the Greek Opposition consists of three elements: no arms, piss and wind. The Golden Dawn nutters have no desire at all for a restoration of the ND/PASOK spineless jellyfish scenario, and the forces of military and police order are patriotically united in their opposition to any further humiliation.
As I wrote yesterday
‘Only two people in Europe are above this [spin]: Merkel and Draghi. The unaccountable Draghi has the upper hand at the moment – ultimately he alone can control how much currency all the ezone States do or don’t get – but whatever his motives are, or his ideal end game might be, one thing Supermario is not going to do is take on the US.’
One of the few things Draghi and Tsipras have in common is the Italian language. But they are two men separated by ideology, Babelling away in the ever-more wobbly towering inferno. We could well be looking at a definitive moment in the Obama Presidency. But equally, we could be staring down the barrel of the biggest cockup in modern history.
It’s that clear.