…..of the Final Solution
Well, The Slog’s informants (all two of them) were on the money (or lack of it) in predicting Troika2 would reject the latest ‘big move’ red-line crossing by the Greek government. The situation since that time has been confused, and so SNAFU continues to reign supreme: I understand Athens came back with a tweak yesterday, Herr Schäuble gave it his customary seal of disapproval and then the meeting wrapped at 2.50 pm CET time. This is what Jean-Claude Juncker the JU88 Stuka dive-bomber calls “working through the night to get an agreement”.
I raise the issue of lackadaisical urgency, because this entire process is at least one piece short of a jigsaw puzzle. I took a decision yesterday evening, and I’d wager that, following the Monday to Wednesday Troika2 filibuster, other commentators are doing the same thing: I decided to choose the by now least believable theory I have, and dump it.
The one I’ve aced is that Troika2 wants a deal, and is scared of not getting a deal.
I’ve dumped it because none of their actions support it: no concessions, filibustering when threatened with a good idea… and money under the table for Greek banks, but only because a disorderly default threatens bad derivative bank bets eg DB, RBS and The French Bank Which Must Not be Mentioned.
Now, you can argue that those derivatives are indeed there, and you’d be right…so why aren’t they frightened? I think that, in the classic Holmes tradition, one’s left with only one conclusion: they don’t fear not getting a deal, because in the end they’re confident they can impose it without ramifications.
‘Imposition’ is both a dangerous and potentially melodramatic word…but not if you go back through the EC/ECB/IMF/Frankfurt/Berlin track record.
Refuting the Rule of Law
In late 2011, Greek PM Georgios Papandreou listened to the ‘terms’ on offer at the original memorandum session, and said Greece would need a referendum to approve it. He was flatly told “no”, Wolfgang Schäuble allegedly telling the most senior executive of a sovereign nation “No more elections, the People don’t understand the issue”.
On 25 March 2013, a €10 billion international bailout led by the Eurogroupe, EC, ECB and IMF was offered to a Cypriot banking system which – while it had over-leveraging problems – was fundamentally solvent. What rendered it insolvent was backing Greek bailout debt bonds, the sudden removal of Russian monies following leaks (from Cypriot bankers, but also almost certainly the ECB) about Mario Draghi’s intentions, a concerted downgrading of Cypriot debt bonds by a suddenly awake range of ratings agencies, and then the blunt diktat from Schäuble and Draghi, “this is an offer you can’t refuse”.
In a nutshell, the eunatics destroyed Cypriot fiscal credibility, and then moved in to ‘help’ the banking system out of its hole. One suspects the eurogroupe and ECB had been following the post-Premiership career of Tony Blair closely, as the MO was identical to his in Iraq: start a war, then broker the peace.
This was what Cypriots thought about the ‘offer’:
But they too were never asked. In return for Cyprus agreeing to close the country’s second-largest bank, Laiki and imposing a one-time bank deposit levy on all uninsured deposits there, and possibly around 48% of uninsured deposits in the Bank of Cyprus (the island’s largest commercial bank), Cyprus got the piffling sum of €10bn….and the destruction of its financial independence. Jeroan Dijesslbleom blithely called this heist “a template for the future” following which Schäuble announced that his Dutch colleague had misspoken. But the jury had already heard the comment: as the Bundesrepublik’s former top spook, Herr Schäuble is all eyes, but mainly all lies.
In 2014, ECB boss Mario Draghi was finally certain that his illegal QE romp would be approved. But another sovereign State outside the EU stood in the way of its ‘effectiveness’: Switzerland. It had capped the value of the Swiss franc against the euro in order to avoid destroying its export business. Draghi didn’t ask the Gnomes to remove the cap: he told them that’s what they were going to do….or else. The Swiss took off the cap.
These are all, to my mind, classic examples of the unwarranted and illegal imposition of the EU’s will upon anyone in its way. Aside from the Russian Federation, not one developed nation protested about any of them. Effectively, they tacitly approved and quietly collaborated.
This has allowed the gargoyles running this now blatantly undemocratic, fiscally fascist ‘Union’ to reach two key conclusions: we can ignore the rule of law; and if member States become in any way truculent, ultimately we can force them into acquiescence and there will be not a peep of disapproval from the “developed” world. It would be difficult indeed to put a rice-paper between that Weltanschauung, and the one promoted by the failed artist and Austrian tramp, Herr A. Hitler from Linz.
The power behind the technocrats
But this short-term belief in unassailable power was preceded by a more medium-term policy of Imperial expansion in order to fill the vacuum created by the collapse of the Soviet Union. The documents made public in the last seven or so years point in only one direction when it comes to the
arm-twisting guiding hand behind that foreign affairs strategy: towards Washington in general, and the US State Department in particular.
All of this, believe it or not, is hugely relevant to what’s being visited upon the Greek People at the moment. Clearly, via Lagarde’s IMF and the Merkel-Obama relationship, the US approves in private of the baseball bat approach to Greece…. whatever the Black Dude might utter in his public soft-tone remarks. We should also never forget the codicil of controls over Germany that the Americans still hold to this day, 70 years after the defeat of the earlier incarnation of Nazis; nor indeed the massive aid the then West Germany received without paying a penny in reparations to Greece…or anyone else for that matter. When Greece looked like it might go Communist in 1945, Harry Truman piled in to stop it. When the Colonels took over some 30 years later, the US did nothing. When the Greeks asked for reparations to be raised as an issue after the election to power of Syriza, the Germans laughed and the US press blasted the Athens Government for its ‘opportunistic’ raising of the matter. That same press pack has barely mentioned the compelling case against the Greek debt as being odious and illegal under International Law. And despite the American refusal to send the remaining 93% of German gold it holds back home to Berlin, Herr Schäuble the Avenging Angel has been strangely silent…he being the German finance minister, and all. If things carry on in this psychopathically hypocritical manner, I wouldn’t put it past the CDU to send Israel the 1941-44 Nazi State gas bill.
From Snowden to Wikileaks via McCain in the middle east and the Goldman Sachs role in unaffordable debt creation (still nobody in gaol on account of that one) it is impossible, finally, to avoid the obvious reality: nobody does anything in Europe – including the UK – without US permission: and if it wants something done, then its will shall prevail. Don’t like a socialist French President dragging his feet on neoliberal ‘reforms’? Bomb his debt bond yields. Don’t like the idea of Commies standing up to your EU puppets? Invent and fund To Potami. Not going too well? Invite the Greek Opposition Parties to join in the Brussels baseball thwacking, then leak about them slagging off a Syriza that is currently polling from 2 to 6 times more electoral support than those discredited Parties. Don’t like some of these EU State Central
Banks getting out of line? Make sure there’s a Goldman Sachs or Opposition Party apparatchik running every last treasury that matters.
The US actively encouraged the central and east European former Soviet vassal States being invited into first the EU and then the euro. The Americans didn’t GAF about the obvious effect the lower income levels and mass migration would have on Western Europe’s economy: if anything, they probably saw it as another lucky bounce via which working wages would be crushed, and the neoliberal hegemony further cemented into the foundations.
Now all attempts at independence in those newer EU States are subject to blatant US interference, with the endless CIA-backed (and utterly groundless) accusations against Orban in Hungary mirrored by Juncker’s cynically sadistic decision to appoint former Polish boss Donald Tusk as Commissioner for bullying the opponents of the euro into line.
The idea is, put simply, to make the US influence in all of Europe irreversible, with the Euronauts happily going along with this in order to render their silly EU and its mickey-mouse currency ‘forever’. And naturally, giving the euro a whopping great front door but no rear fire exit was merely a reflection of that insane drive towards a future wherein the road map includes every service station and péage down to the last detail. A Reich, in fact, designed to last a thousand years.
Why the Troikanauts can go for broke without fear of failure
So this is my conclusion. The US and EU have stopped taking no for an answer. They believe they can ignore every law, every protest, every supreme Court, and every democratic decision taken by the peoples of Europe. They can unseat an elected Ukrainian leader and side with dubious political elements against the unseated. They can reinvent the facts, smear the other side, invent atrocities, and control everything.
And this is why my theory about their fear of Greek default inside the eurozone (and the consequent Tsunami of derivative payouts) was wrong. Of course they don’t want that to happen, but you see they are certain it won’t happen because they won’t allow it to happen. Those who want it to happen will be deposed, disposed of, or simply stripped of their powers.
The approach of zero compromise, zero Syriza victory – and removing the Left obstacle (while leaving open a lifeline for the Greek banking system) may seem clueless and incoherent, but it is anything but: the triumph of EU Will will teach the other ClubMed rebels a lesson, and the humiliation of Syriza will tarnish its appeal; so long as the Greek banks are kept alive until June 30th, the Troikanauts reason, they have nothing to fear.
There is but one possible extrapolation from that conclusion, my dear Watson: unless Syriza caves completely before that rigid IMF deadline, some form of EC directive via the eurogroupe will replace the Athens political government with technocrats. They can do it, and they will get away with it in the face of small-scale murmurings from the outnumbered Non-Violent Extremist communities.
The huge error in their thinking is that they can retain control over internal Greek developments after doing such an idiotic thing. At least, that’s what I think having remained close to a spectrum of Greek opinion for nearly four years now.
Is there a lesson in this, should it come to pass? I think so, yes. Syriza should have flatly refused to enter into negotiations at the outset. Hindsight is of course a marvellous but impractical thing….unless we learn the lesson. Everyone currently supporting secessional opinion in Spain, France, Italy and the UK needs to cotton on to that learning, and then have a Bill Clinton-style motto above their desk: ‘They’re the new Nazis, stoopid. There is no reasoning with them’.