ANALYSIS: the real reason why Cameron wants to keep Scotland inside the UK….and why his plans will backfire

camsturgeon16515Toff meets Tartan in the arranged marriage from Hell

Scotland’s new slippery fish Nicola Sturgeon had a pleasant meeting with David Cameron yesterday. They’re both in a very odd position.

And by the way, before we go any further, I’d ask you to hold this thought: only 1 in 12 people in the UK are Scottish. The population still north of Hadrian’s wall is just 5.3 million. The population of London is 8.6 million.

So fine, the SNP has an overwhelming Scottish mandate. But its UK mandate is, shall we say, iffy…and its high number of seats at Westminster is disgracefully unfair.

Anyway, back to the odd positions, as Lord Mandelson once said to a rocking horse.

If Cameron was prepared to accept a new ‘UK’ thing with 92% of its population intact, he could destroy the Labour Party for a generation. If he said, “OK, grab yer kilt and get on yer bike Nicola”, she’d then have to negotiate with the EU, get saddled with the euro (if it still exists) and have the self-determination the SNP wants.

But the Prime Minister doesn’t want to do that. He talks with apparent sincerity about keeping the UK together, even if he doesn’t mean it. Why, after all, would he want to risk a Labour rebirth north of the Border for the sake of 1 in 12 voters?

Nicola Sturgeon herself is in turn to some extent the victim of her own success. She has all but wiped Labour out in Scotland….but in doing so has (like Ukip) given the Conservatives an overall majority. Although her Party is miles to the Left of Camerlot, it is power over the Tories in England she needs to leverage now – not Labour in Scotland.

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There’s a very good reason why the PM is making nice noises at the moment: neither he nor any of his hard-Right Cabinet want a social democrat-leaning State on their border. They want Scotland in the EU alright, but not as a separate member. Cameron sees our future in the EU because that’s where his paymasters want him to be: at the centre of a huge trading bloc ‘reformed’ by neoliberals to produce low cost workers. Mario Draghi made it abundantly clear at a private EU FinMins session 18 months ago that all crypto-socialist, welfare-orientated and trade-union affiliated opposition in Europe must be crushed in order to reduce Sovereign costs – and shrink the power of labour. Only by doing so would the EU be able to compete on the global trade stage, he insisted.

Dave’s plan is to hold the in/out EU referendum and win. That would lock the UK as one entity into the European Union. He can keep the Scots sweet with more and more devolution and investment to the North: but after the referendum, Scotland would be equally locked into the EU as a sort of British ‘county’ called Scotland….not an independent nation. This too would suit Juncker, Merkel and Draghi: if there’s one thing they hate, it’s independent minds.

After getting the pro-EU vote, the Prime Minister could pass a new UK Union Law….and there’d be nothing Ms Sturgeon could do about it. I understand too that in return for massively increased Scottish Parliament powers, Mr Cameron would insist on Scottish MPs no longer being at Westminster…..thus increasing his ‘majority’ power further still. I really do not think that, in the medium term, Labour would attract much of a vote in a Scotland where most people pro or anti independence had wound up with such an allegedly high level of independence.

I would also be reasonably sure that, if the EU survives, power will gravitate away from member State parliaments. For all his patriotic humbug, Cameron knows this perfectly well. It is precisely the scenario that Hungary’s Viktor Orban foresees and is determined to stop.

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In historical terms, the power of the new All-Tory Government is far greater than many people realise: it will be much more effective simply because the Opposition is split both within and between Parties…and because Labour played right into his hands.

Last night, Douglas Carswell effectively told Farage he thought he should quit. Nige’s natural autocracy is now on display for all to see, and it is not a pretty sight. If Ukip were a joke to many people (or a Demon for the Left) before the election, they look like Fred Karno’s Circus this morning.

In wanting Britain out of the EU, the Kippers sit with the largest single proportion of the electorate on the issue, but have both the big Parties bizarrely against the idea. I mean ‘bizarrely’ in relation to the Labour Party: quite why they appear to be so ignorant of the neolib/banker/Berlin hijacking of the EU escapes me. It is, I suspect, merely part of the Party’s non-existent commercial insight.

The Liberal Democrats remain, of course, the most pro-EU of the lot. But Labour won’t engage with them anyway, and they’ve been decimated by using a short spoon while supping with the Devil. (That might change if the new Leader does the sensible thing, and points at rampant Tory neoliberalism in order to say, “look how dangerous they are without us applying the brakes”. But earthquakes are made of more than that).

It all looks like plain sailing for Camerlot the Corporacratic Kingdom of Mammon. However, it probably won’t be.

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First of all, hubris will get the better of them – it always does. Second, I can’t believe that journalists from the ‘progressive’ tendency will simply leave Shapps, Hunt, Osborne and all the other villains alone: a scandal will break before too long. Either that, or some dastardly, anti-social plot will be leaked.

In reality, I suspect that Cameron’s quiet Scottish Anschluss plan will come to grief. Nicola Sturgeon is a shrewd operator and hard as nails: and Dave is making a number of flakey assumptions.

The first is that he can win a referendum. That’s far from clear: there are eurosceptics in both the Labour and Tory ranks….and in the new Cabinet. In private, a sizeable proportion of Conservatives think the EU in general and the eurozone in particular stand little chance of survival.

Second, he’s banking on the eurozone returning to growth, but it can’t and won’t – because ClubMed is still a mess, and external EU customers are thin on the export ground: denial is denial, but the world is heading for a slump.

Third, he’s going to have to get something substantive in the way of reform from Brussels. I don’t believe he will. The mood from Brussels via Berlin to Hamburg is implacably opposed to the idea of it, period.

Fourth, in their dealings with Cameron, the Eunatics will hand the Noers millions of votes.

Fifth, Italy will fall apart very soon, and then the writing really will be on the wall. If he wants to stay in at that point, the PM’s Foreign Secretary may well resign. Osborne too has been quick to hedge bets by piling in with the new AIIBank. Many in the City (a power-base for Boris Johnson) still suspect dirty tricks to emerge from Paris and Hamburg in an attempt to chop London’s balls off.

Sixth, while the Chancellor just got away with it with only weeks to spare in relation to the UK economy, as I’ve been predicting since 2011 Britain faces some terrible problems. With the cost of debt servicing adding to the trade deficit, the overall National Debt is now completely out of control – a point about which wilderness-dweller John Redwood has been proved ineluctably right. The rise in Sovereign bond yields we’re currently seeing could mean a myriad of things, but it will cause rate contagion in the end….and if Janet Yellen sticks to her guns, the first US move away from Zirp is going to cause all kinds of problems in the EU and South America.

For some years now, Britain has been a virtual economy that manufactures very little, grows even less, and depends on the upside-down financial world we inhabit remaining in that posture. When that hope is dashed, nobody in the developed world is going to be hit harder than us. The weekend before the General Election, a Sunday Times analyst wrote “this is the election to lose”. I do buy into that.

So finally – in the light of even some of the above – Sturgeon’s SNP will cry foul and say the Scots have a better chance in Europe than on an isolated, bankrupt Island.

As they met yesterday, Mr Toff and Mrs Jock will have been reading between each other’s polite lines…or perhaps one should say plotlines. I think Sturgeon will be the one who ‘wins’ in the end – or loses the lesser amount of face – but once her country is finally independent, a radical realignment of the political Opposition in what’s left of the UK will be a must. Otherwise we will become Walgland plc, living off the dubious derivative values of children sold into slavery.

Yesterday at The Slog: An air of resignation in the UK’s political Opposition

35 thoughts on “ANALYSIS: the real reason why Cameron wants to keep Scotland inside the UK….and why his plans will backfire

  1. Pretty sound reasoning.
    Im not sure Cameron is quite the EUfanatic he’s generally considered, he’s certainly not the fool most people have him pegged as.

    So, lets say he goes to renegotiate.
    Whoever the real power in the EU is at that time, stands up, whips his cock out, and figuratively pisses on Camerons chips, adding “theres your ****ing renegotiation”

    A Eurofanatic will politely smile, eat his sodden chips and go home to spin the situation.
    Will Cameron? Maybe, I dont hold his counsel, but I wouldnt be so sure.
    Or will he come back and decide that his future is dependent on winning the exit vote, with a solid hand to do so with.
    The Syriaza method one may say.

    “For some years now, Britain has been a virtual economy that manufactures very little, grows even less, and depends on the upside-down financial world we inhabit remaining in that posture. ”
    This idea really does need to be killed.
    Manufacturing hasnt been a “high value industry” for a long time, any idiot can “make stuff”. China earns $6 for “making” a $600 iphone, Apple and the retail chain split around $300 between them.
    Its the research and the design that earns the money.
    The Top 5 EU universities are the London “Big 5”.
    The Seventh is Manchester.

    Worldwide the Swiss have a top 20, singular, the Germans have a top 31, the Swiss have a(nother) top 40 and the Swedes a Top 50
    England has more Top 50 universities than the rest of Europe combined

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  2. TrT
    On the contrary, the idea needs new life breathing into it. I’m not talking about competing with the Chinese, I’m talking about selling the top 10% of Chinese UK gold-plated Purdey shotguns, v high quality boys toys and ridiculously expensive hand-made furniture.
    We’re a niche country that could become very rich again if we abandoned globalist bollocks and traded on our Asian reputation….which is btw miles ahead of America’s.
    If ever we needed to tie personal skills and retraining to exports this is it. What do we get? – “we need to import trained migrants”. Rubbish: we need to grab our under-utilised workforce and turn them into low volume high value manufacturing sources.

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  3. Whilst we were looking the other way, a deal was worked out in the U.S. Senate on May 13th to “Fast-Track” the proposed trade deals, TPP with Asia, and TTIP with Europe.

    TPP and TTIP have been presented as ‘trade’ deals, but instead they’re actually about sovereignty. They’re about the participating countries handing their democratic sovereignty — on regulation of the environment, consumer protection, worker protection, and finance — over to panels, all of whose members will be selected by the large international corporations that for years have been working to draft these “trade” treaties.

    If some corporation “C” under these ‘trade deals’ then brings a case to one of those panels and says that country “X” has any regulations regarding the environment, consumer protection, worker protection, or finance, that are stricter than the ones that are set forth in TPP and TTIP, then country X will be assessed to pay a fine to corporation C, for “unfair trade practices” against that corporation.

    In other words: these corporate panels will constitute a new international government, with the power to fine countries for exceeding the regulations that are set forth in these international ‘trade’ treaties.

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/tpp-and-ttip-free-market-trade-deals-approved-by-us-senate-how-americas-news-media-killed-americas-democracy/5449580

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  4. Couldn’t agree more
    Not saying no building stuff, but purdey wouldn’t work if it was part if British mfg corp and tried to my make millions of guns per year.

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  5. I notice no one ever asks the SNP how they would have coped with RBScotland and HBOScotland if Scotland was independent in 2008.

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  6. I’m not sure Cameron cares what happens to the EU. I think he has his sights set on following in Blair’s footsteps and becoming a very rich ex prime minister.
    I also think that the ease with which the won the GE Cameron believes they can do it again with the in/out vote should we ever get one, which I personally doubt

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  7. If Scotland has 8.34% of the UK population, and 9% of the seats in the UK parliament, why is that “disgracefully unfair”?

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  8. @Robin Banks

    not does anyone ask what would have happened to the Scottish economy had they gained independence shortly before the massive drop in oil price.

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  9. Cameron one big advantage is Scotland gains its freedom – cutting several million voters who will never vote for the Tories out of future Westminster elections and creating a situation where the Tories have a natural majority in what is left over.

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  10. JW perhaps you are a little pessimistic in tone, albeit that much of what you say I feel sure is right. I agree with TrT there are an amount of small businesses that compete quietly and successfully with most of us not realizing. Like your good self, I find it difficult to feel optimistic about the future.

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  11. Does not Cameron hold one ace in his hand with the possibility of treating with the Orkney and Shetland Islanders separately as many of them would like? What would be the implications upon Scottish expectations if the islands were offered their own form of devolution?

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  12. “Asian reputation” The Chinese still remember the opium wars. (maybe that’s what they want the Purdey’s for)

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  13. Surely Cameron’s approach should be to link directly the proportion of Jock MPs in Westminster with the proportion of power devolved. So if 60% is devolved, then they lose 60% of their current MPs – haggle for another 10% and the price is 10% fewer MPs – eventually Wee Nicola Crankie loses more influence if she wants more control, and Jockland becomes just like a big local council with bagpipes.

    Best trick for ‘Next Labour’ would be to re-adopt Michael Foot’s 1983 position of campaigning for an EU exit. That would recover all the working-class Ukip voters, along with many Tories who will always distrust Cameron on Europe anyway and many who never usually vote. The result of that could be a vote to leave the EU.
    Just like the SNP did with their post-referendum ‘high’, ‘Next Labour’ could then use this newly-cohered, common-ground voter-base, as a springboard to keep all those voters for the 2020 general election. It’s probably Labour’s only chance of ever holding power again, so well worth changing their EU policy – it’s that or death, and ‘that’ looks better all the time.

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  14. I think it probably all comes back to his paymasters for Cameron regardless of the issue. Having watched him for nine years, I can’t think of anything much Cameron believes in except himself and staying in power.
    i suspect behind his stance is that Scotland staying in the UK if of great importance to many influential people, but particularly members of British institutions like the royal family, and these institutions hold great influence, of course.
    It’s always said that losing Scotland would be an advantage to the Tories politically but I’m not sure – there will always be haves and have nots in any society, and the Labour Party would simply alter its message slightly if Scotland went its own way. Scotland breaking away would be a seismic event in the UK and I don’t think anyone can guess how things would settle politically. Frankly, though, I don’t think it will ever happen – I don’t see the Scots wanting to leave sterling.

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  15. “Fifth, Italy will fall apart very soon, and then the writing really will be on the wall”.
    Odd that Italy if in such a bad state that it keeps a very low profile ,its all Spain/Greece/France?so how bad are things in Italy?

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  16. Seems that George Monbiot is on board with you, John, with your call for a more community-based political approa He writes:

    “No progressive party can survive the corporate press, corrupt party funding systems and conservative fear machines by fighting these forces on their own terms. The left can build only from the ground up; reshaping itself through the revitalisation of communities, working with local people to help fill the gaps in social provision left by an uncaring elite. Successful progressive movements must now be citizen’s advice bureau, housing association, scout troop, trade union, credit union, bingo hall, food bank, careworker, football club and evangelical church, rolled into one. Focus groups and spin doctors no longer deliver.”

    http://www.monbiot.com/2015/05/13/ground-control/

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  17. MRO –
    They are very, very bad. Low profile by Mario Draghi. Much of data bending by Mario Draghi. Top Bank trading insolvently by Mario Draghi. Travel in Italy as I do….the place is falling apart.

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  18. A famous quote from Josef Stalin, when queried about the voting result of a particular crucial Politburo election ; ‘ It does not matter how they vote, we control the counting’.
    The Scottish Independence referendum did not have an exit vote and the ‘NO’ result did not seem to favour the mood on the street.
    The present British electoral system includes postal voting ,which is wide open to abuse. This has been documented and there have been instances of guilty court judgements.
    There have been many controversial voting results in recent years. The 2nd Irish EU referendum. The OHIO state US Presidential primary vote GW Bush verses John Kerry. Of course the controversial Florida Presidential run-off between Al Gore and GW Bush. Jeb Bush was Florida Govr at the time.
    One must be naive to think that underhand means are NOT used to swing an election in this Sceptred isle.
    To vote in a UK election , no identity papers of even the most simple kind or proof of address is required. The system is wide open to the abuse by the most cynical of manipulators.
    Another reason to always vote, is that if you do not, your name and multiple others can be used by unscrupulous others to sway a vote using blank voting papers, similar to postal voting manipulation.

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  19. Never forget, the one eyed git from Kirkcaldy’s accomplishments. 1. Fail to abolish the economic cycle. 2. Bring the UK close to insolvency. 3.Preside over the bankruptcy of the only two Scottish banks, and a major English building society. 4.Achieve the notable double of being both the worst Chancellor and PM, ever. 5. Be responsible for the 2015 electoral destruction of the Labour party, in its birthplace, Scotland. 6. Be deserted, in his final days, by his masters in Moscow, who had blackmailed him since his student days,over an unfortunate indiscretion with a minor (boy, since you ask).

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  20. Here in the US a friend of mine recently made a custom entertainment center for Paul McCartney. so it looks like your “ridiculously expensive hand-made furniture” UK market has some global competition.Maybe your gold plated shotguns will sell?. If the chinese want a gold plated AR15 I’m sure that they are available somewhere .

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  21. Just face it, the UK has sold the Crown Jewels , just the queen left to flog off. The London property market is like a prostitute and blobbing Boris is its pimp. If you are looking for equality and respect for working people, do not look to the UK. The people have chosen and as long as they can shop, watch the footie and have their cars cleaned by some Polish person they are contented as bovines!

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  22. You still didn’t say why Cameron has felt the need to retain Scotland. But, one the point of referendums, don’t be so sure Cameron’s onto a loser. He bucked the polls to win the Scottish Referendum and then again to win, narrowly in the GE.

    He is better able to control media output than his opposition, can command higher donations and, despite being a lightweight, he has, in the GE, outperformed the poor opposition. By hook or by crook he’ll win, probably by crook..

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  23. I think Cameron expects the Sturgeon to deliver a Scottish vote pro-Europe in this fictional referendum, and help his numbers.

    She can’t, even if she wants to. I don’t know many Scots who are in love with the idea of Europe, or the idea of subservience to Europe.

    If she falls for the promise of some fancy deal on the basis of a European pro-vote, more fool her.

    I suspect she is not as smart as she is being told she is.

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  24. @Bran1 re Monbiot’s piece.
    Funnily enough, he’s just described the approach of both Golden Dawn and any established Muslim or Jewish community. How he expects the left to engage in grassroots non-government-led activism when it has already monopolised the salaried positions for distribution of state largess baffles me. The problem for the modern left is that they cannot have “self-help” when “self help” requires exclusion of an “other” group, regardless that that “other” is necessary for community cohesion and identity.

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  25. @Robert

    I agree with you. It seems to me that there are currently a lot of voices calling for a new way of doing politics in this country (UK), but when you look at what they are actually propounding / proposing, much of it looks to me like the national socialism of the 1930s, and we all know where that led ……

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