ANALYSIS: WHY UKIP WILL BE A BIT-PLAYING ‘EXTRA’ IN ‘UK ELECTION 2015 – THE MOVIE’.

nigelooer20415GET REAL TIME FOR THE KIPPERS

The latest YouGov poll shows the Brits – probably in sharper focus than anything else to date – where the power is going to lie after May 7th. It may seem like a kick in the balls for for Camerlot, but it’s also a kick in the teeth for UKip. The Slog crunches the stats.

Peter Kellner of YouGov polls is not a bloke with whom I always agree. His analysis of the latest UK poll figures is in my view a bit of a curate’s egg: some very good insights, but then along the way he loses the plot about how our ridiculous FPTP general election system works in practice.

There are a few bombshells in this latest tabulation, presented below:

yougovpoll20415The fieldwork was conducted yesterday (19th April) and so there are thus far no unknown bribes or left-field developments in these figures that naysayers can shoot down. Cutting to the chase here, the table evidences further what The Slog has been saying since the turn of the year, viz:

1. If the upward Labour trend continues from now until polling day – a mere 17 days away – then the result in terms of top 2 Parties on polling day will be an as near as damnit a dead heat.

2. There will be two Parties available with power to influence the Government we finally get: the SNP with 46 seats, and LibDems with 28.

3. UKip is NOT going to be a player, because as I’ve repeated endlessly, it is not popular vote that counts in our “democracy” but constituency seats.

Kellner is thus correct when he says, ‘Voters are warming to the idea of an Ed Miliband-led government, and Labour is contacting more voters in local constituencies…..Labour’s leader is regarded as more honest and in touch than the prime minister….Many voters are being turned off by the Conservatives’ campaigning tactics. Every day last week, many more people told us they had noticed something negative about the Tories than anything positive.”

Waydergo Grant Shapps, you’ve obviously played a blinder.

But this is where Kellner gets it inexplicably wrong:

‘Ukip has halted the recent drift of support back to the Tories. If anything, Ukip’s support has firmed up in the past few days. This is bad news for Conservative MPs with small majorities over Labour.’

This simply doesn’t make sense. Of late, the Kippers have been taking more votes from Labour than Conservative. What it really means in electoral terms is that we are going to get some odd results based on little more than mathematical serendipity: but without a massive surge to Ukip based on carefully orchestrated tactical voting, the Nigellas are not going to have so much as a chair in the post-election room…smoke filled or not.

Two months ago I projected a maximum of six Ukip seats. The YouGov data from yesterday suggests three – the third of which I assume is Thanet. But some polls I’ve been tipped off about there suggest Farage is far from through the tape.

Let’s be generous and say the Faragistas get four seats. Why should any wannabe ruling Coalition need four seats, when the other players are offering 28 and 46 respectively?

Miliband has made a watch-my-lips promise: we will not enter a Coalition with the SNP. However, this is Ed’s standard anal syntax meaning “but we’ll take their support in return for Scottish independence”. If (as so often in general elections) there is a late swing to the Tories, then the 28 LibDem seats – plus Protestant Parties in Ulster – may well be more than enough to return the current Coalition to power.

“Don’t waste your vote!” “Register to vote now!” we’ve been told in recent days. The chances are that this publicity has played Labour’s way. We are told “not to waste” our votes. But as none of Parties oppose global neoliberalism – and only one (UKip) with 4 seats is prepared to reject the EU option – any vote I actively make will be equally wasted.

Over the last three years, thousands of Slog threaders have told me that “UKip is the best chance we have got”. Well, based on these figures, the best chance we have has no chance.

The whole exercise is utterly pointless. To repeat the mantra: anything could happen, but nothing will change.

Last night at The Slog: https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2015/04/19/at-the-end-of-the-day-612/

33 thoughts on “ANALYSIS: WHY UKIP WILL BE A BIT-PLAYING ‘EXTRA’ IN ‘UK ELECTION 2015 – THE MOVIE’.

  1. As you say John, it shows the ridiculous nature of the FPTP system. I’ll still be voting UKIP – because I believe in what they stand for – getting us out of the EU, and having common sense policies. If the number of votes doesn’t translate into seats, we’ll have to keep trying. There’s one thing about us ‘Kippers, we are determined and if old Cast Iron thinks we will switch back to Tory, he’s got a surprise in store. Roll on 7th May.

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  2. Hear, hear, Miss Apprehension!

    John, that is not a Kellner quote but a quote from Matthew Goodwin’s analysis (on BBC Parliament channel, a couple of nights ago). His message seemed to be that UKIP can not be ignored and they are here to stay and have influence.

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  3. So if it is Con with 279. Lab with 272.
    Libdem with 28 [ but willing to say yes, if we can be in Government]
    Or
    SNP with 46 [but we will only support anyone on a vote by vote] but we mainly want to cause enough chaos plus get enough money from England, to make England want to give us Independence.
    If one thinks about it, most of the 2015 Budget will only come into play 2015/16 and 2016/17. [Benefits frozen for two years etc] It just needs a Party with enough bottle to sit on their hands and tough it out. [instead of a light touch government, have a hands off government]
    Two years of frozen government spending, with a rising tax base and problems might be nearly solved. Any problems, just blame the other Parties.
    It would work out for either Labour or Conservatives, tough it out, balance the books and any problems. scream it’s all the fault of SNP, Libdems, Plaid Cymri. Or indeed the Electorate for not voting for the Blues and Reds and giving us a sufficient mandate to do what we want.
    Five years of inaction and chaos should be sufficient time for a] The Corporatocracy to consolidate its power and b] The people to come to a sensible decision and vote either Red or Blue, or maybe Blue or Red in 2020.

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  4. Miliband has pledged to keep the UK at the ‘heart of Europe’ so, if Labour do well, what does that say about our membership of the EU? If as is projected that around 60% would like secession, why would they vote Labour?

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  5. fascinating guesswork…..
    one might consider that the co founder of YouGov is an existing Tory MP…..
    that Cameron will be timing his efforts for a time on the stump just days before the election….
    but please …. consider the all important content of the candidates’ input. The British people are not as stupid as you make out time and time again. UKIP might surprise even you sir.

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  6. fair enough but there so many safe seats kicking around it reveals the utter pointlessness of sticking a cross on anything…

    Safe seats in 2015
    Four weeks away from the election we could predict the results for over half of the total constituencies. 364 seats have been called based on how ‘safe’ they were in 2010, in line with current national and local opinion polls.

    http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/site … 0Data.xlsx

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  7. browser froze so trying again
    http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/site … 0Data.xlsx
    from the electoral reform society…
    Safe seats in 2015

    Four weeks away from the election we could predict the results for over half of the total constituencies. 364 seats have been called based on how ‘safe’ they were in 2010, in line with current national and local opinion polls.

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  8. O/T
    I was at World Weed Day in Hyde Park yesterday afternoon with my girlfriend. I believe in the stuff and enjoy many a spliff, it stimulates the mind. We grow it in the yard.
    I noticed that the majority of targets for sniff and search were old fellas with beards and ponytails. Most were escorted off the park in cuffs.
    Not a good look .

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  9. “The British people are not as stupid as you make out ”
    Past experience demonstrates otherwise. And present voting intentions seem to confirm that the majority of the “British” electorate (whoever THEY are these days) are so afraid of change that they will continue to vote for the same old, same old bunch of pushovers and incompetents, and then wonder why they are sinking even deeper in the mire.
    That the adolescent Miliband can muster the support indicated above demonstrates the dire political straits Britain is in.

    Kellner is of course the spouse of Britain’s stupendously unimpressive High Representative to the EU and a longtime Labour supporter, which raises a few questions about the drift of his polls.

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  10. Under FPTP we are going to get a Government nobody voted for . FPTP I hate you . UKIP will get more votes than the LimpDums and the LDs will have 28 ? MPs . The status quo has nothing to offer . What a disaster for Britain .

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  11. Well you can’t be right all the time JW.
    When I drive around the West Midlands I see that there just aren’t the posters etc. You wouldn’t notice that JW – living in France. The turnout will be very low, but UKIP voters will vote in their thousands. I think the pollsters are now too political, and that UKIP will surprise in a few weeks time.

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  12. Farage performance in debates of late has been far inferior to his performances last year. EU has many problems but has concentrated solely on immigration, this allows others to get off easily. In fact since you reported his meeting with Murdoch his performances have deteriorated markedly. Do you think the meeting could have had any influence upon him?

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  13. I agree; as polling day approaches there will be a swing back to the devils that we know. UKIP will suffer. The real problem is the SNP. The playbook for them was written by Charles Parnell and the Irish Parliamentary Party, which was established in 1882 and achieved its goal in 1922. Let us assume that they will continue to be both intelligent, opportunistic and destructive.

    Who is best placed to govern at all with 46 actively destructive Scottish Nationalists in the House of Commons?

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  14. The pollsters were way out of touch in the EU elections last May, and I think the new voting dynamics will surprise them yet again. Voting UKIP does two things,,.. it adds to the poll strength of UKIP (obviously), but it also draws down the power from the Reds and the Blues.
    Try this analogy which will hopefully explain the point better :
    If we perceive each of the party poll ratings as the individual faders on a studio mixing desk, then for many years the individual voter *voice* had no real breakthrough. The end music was either Red or Blue. And worse than that, Red and Blue sounded increasingly like *the same tune*. Now with so many faders (parties), competing to produce the music track, no one party can raise the ‘dominating decibels’ over the 326 (needed seats) level. This means at least an individual voter, has a slightly greater chance of getting their *voice*, heard in the *final mix*?
    In short the pollsters may well have it wrong (again).
    And here’s another factor, not fully appreciated. In the last couple of months, I have been asked by several folk to help with online voter registration. Those asking for help were in the mid 30’s to 50 year old (mainly men). None of those 11 people I’ve helped register, has ever voted before. And it brings me to a curious conclusion. All the ‘poll commentary’ is of where the each party’s core voters have shifted (from) ~ (to). But,.. no one appears to have a grip on the level of *middle aged, newly registered to a first time vote*?
    Questions :
    ~ What do you think is the impetus for these previously *absent voters* to register?
    ~ Can you guess who their intended vote is for?.
    ~ Are polls and predictions being blindsided by a new voting phenomenon which is not yet on any ‘poll radar’, and not yet factored in to present polls?.

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  15. Of course Kellner will come down on the side of the Socialists. He got his wife a top-pay job in Europe directing the EU foreign policy wasn’t it? whereas in the UK she couldn’t hack it as a barista, but that’s the way Europe cavorts. Take a look at the EU if can bring yourself to do so. Would any sane person elect to vote to go into such a heap of dross? Crooked politicians everywhere, unemployment everywhere, vindictiveness everywhere, faux concern for asylum seekers everywhere. Spare me! Let OUR UK politicians who shed tears for the boat people do something REAL about it. Send seaworthy boats to Libya and in an orderly manner bring the asylum seekers to Europe – and as many as possible to England – so that there is no chance of anyone perishing. This would have two spanking results: no deaths and the vision of the EU leaders to be able to lord it over as many people as possible would be realised. Christ they can’t even sort out a little outpost like Greece. Our foodbanks and poverty can take a back seat for a while – aren’t we all bored to death with our own petty little problems in any case?

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  16. You know by now that I have huge respect both for your insight and for your dedication in producing such good quality content but today I must disagree with your view.

    Here at IP towers there is something quite extraordinary going on. Mrs IP has gone all activist and has mustered a rag-tag band of blue rinsers, created a twitter account and her mob is trotting out the UKIP line from breakfast until bedtime. The blue rinsers are disgusted with the queues at the GP, A+E waiting times and generally feeling like their country is being stolen from under their feet.

    There is genuinely something going on, instead of being me being ridiculed for being interested in politics the Mrs is now glued to all of it, debates, daily politics, Marr show, the whole lot.

    I think Farage has been underestimated and given the lib/lab/con pro euro bias that runs through all these mainstream politicians like the writing through rock he at least dares to challenge the federalist groupthink.

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  17. Who cares about Polls to me it’s all about trying to influence the weaker sheeple to just follow the flock for a complete shearing !!

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  18. Dear God, If UKIP is the answer with “common sense policies” then I give up. Presumably all you Kippers are filthy rich and won’t mind getting richer while the rest of us are shat on from a great height. And whatever Farage is saying now, he has stated on several occasions that he wants an insurance based health system and not the NHS.

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  19. I don’t care.
    The only people that seem to be obsessing about how few seats UKIP will apparently get are their opponents.
    I think that tells you all you need to know.
    What are we supposed to do with this polling information anyway? Vote for someone else who we don’t like because they might stand a better chance of winning? Not vote at all and be guaranteed of not winning?
    Pull yourself together, John.

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  20. The chances of a ‘late swing’ doing anything to change the final result is much less likely now than in the past – the reason being postal votes on demand.

    by the end of this week, a significant number of those likely to cast a ballot will already have voted.

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  21. Bronco, I’m with you and Miss App, and so are a lot of others down in the South West.

    Assuming, (and before anyone says it I know that assuming makes an ass out of u and me!), these opinion polls are based on answers from real people and not just made up by the pollsters, I must say that I find the results hard to believe given that the VAST amount of people I, and my contacts have spoken to recently SAY they will vote UKIP.

    Treating UKIP like idiots didn’t put people off…slurring them as racists didn’t put people off…maybe if we report polls that show UKIP numbers falling off?…maybe that’ll work and put people off?…I wonder what they’ll try next to put people off!.

    Apologies for sounding off again on your blog JW, but it will be a long, long time before this voter returns to the Tory fold and never if Cameron is still ‘in charge’

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  22. Only the most stupid naive gullible of people could really be suckered by what is basically the most evil creed on the planet, Socialism.
    I detest, I abhor and despise any socialist, they are the l.lowest form of life, and those who fail to understand the inherent evil in socialism and support it for its fantasy’s it offers will get no succor from me.
    The fact is that labour is and has been since inception nothing less than corruption cronyism and theft dressed up like lipstick on a warthog, as something beautiful and graceful.
    Pure evil.
    And effin Libs are just another brand of the same, Pure evil,
    and the cons are just that too, A con trick, and nothing short of rabid socialists passing themselves off as Conservatives. Pure evil
    The only ones who are NOT socialists are UKIP.
    However I only ever voted twice in my life. The first time was for Mrs Thatcher, the second time I asked myself, Why do I need to vote again, Have they changed, do they think I mu8ight change my mind. I realized I needed to find a way to vote to make it permanent, a once only vote as I do not change my mind my color or my horses. A way I can pledge my vote until my death bed, But who, Who to entrust, one that I can be confident will ensure my interests and my family’s interests.
    Then I understood and voted that very instant, permanently and irrevocable. Someone better than any politician, ME.
    You reap what you sow, They did it in Europe, you got socialists, just another word for filthy corrupt thriving gangsters and they have royally f**ked up Europe. They did it in the US and got a filthy socialist thieving lying Kenyan monkey to destroy the US, and in the UK they got the thieving corrupt socialist Camoron wearing a fake skin tied with another lying corrupt thieving socialist with less brain than a maggot.
    So the hell with it, I want labour to win and do a deal with the other utterly corrupt lying thieving socialists in Scotland, and I will rape the UK for everything I can get as it sinks under the weight of shit about to fall on it.
    Europe is now too easy. A simple one way bet, with no possibility of a lose when you short the ludicrous fake ponzi voucher that is utterly worthless and backed by nothing more than than an empty promise by a crook as Greece leaving will soon expose.
    And some clowns actually believe the drivel the US economy is growing. So with labour in, socialist corruption theft and cronyism rampant, a global economy in full recession, and Europe on the verge of civil war as it descends into utter hubris and chaos, what chance the UK economy now perched on top of a debt that was bigger than Wiemar.
    Its another one way bet, down the toilet.

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  23. Pingback: John Ward – Analysis : Why UKIP Will Be A Bit-Playing ‘Extra’ In ‘UK Election 2015 – The Movie’ – 21 April 2015 | Lucas 2012 Infos

  24. The bottom line is that there was a referendum and people voted back in FPTP. It was set up to do so as the one calling for AV was the egregious Clegg – big backlash, devil you know, end of story. It’s our own people we have the most trouble with. They keep voting these b***ers back in.

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  25. I wonder if Farage is trying a tactic, to keep below the radar. He knows if he or his candidates are highly visible, they will get all big-party guns firing on them. I think he has surmised that his message is well understood, and he has his core vote in place already. He will have deduced that from the European elections last year.
    I reckon he will keep very quiet until a week before the election, and then start making a lot of noise. Everyone will be sick to the back teeth of Milliband’s staged events and Dave’s wishy-washyness by then (if not already).

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  26. I wish you’d stop being equivocal and say what you really think…preferable at greater length, if such a thing be possible.

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