ANALYSIS: GLOBAL EVENTS INCREASE GREEK NEGOTIATION LEVERAGE – WILL SYRIZA EXPLOIT IT?

varoufinger17415The finger-lickin’ time is over Yanis: now it’s a time for giving

Some of you may have noticed that Greece hasn’t defaulted yet, but already there is contagion among eurozone Bond prices. This has been true today of Italian, Spanish and Portuguese 10-year bond yields, which jumped variously…but by more than 10% on average…with Greece of course back up to pre-bailout levels in 2009-10.

On Wall Street, the Dow fell by 1% over concerns about this, poor consumer pdi and inflation data, and new stricter Chinese trading controls which (it’s felt) might slow growth. It’s Friday, and so volumes are low. But if you zap across the major market websites, you’ll note the beginnings of a sense of panic in some of the interviews. As things stand currently, nobody is looking forward to Monday much.

While the main ‘old’ media dribble on relentlessly about ‘desperation’ in Athens, a quick ring/email around 12 Slog contacts over there revealed a City relaxing in the early summer warmth and still enjoying the post-Syriza election relief about Parliament at last developing a discernible spinal column. The view there now is “on verra” – FFS let’s get on with it, do your worst, and fingers raised into the air.

Sorry to return to this yet one more time, but the more evidence there is that the eurozone (and bourse-dominated neoliberal capitalism generally) clearly aren’t prepared for the contagion that will result from a Greek default, the more Varoufakis and Tsipras must press home their advantage. They’ve gone the extra mile to try and please the Eunatics – but still the Western gargoyle-controlled media want to lie forever about ‘wanton’ Greeks…and dump every last ounce of guilt onto the current Athens regime and the Greek People.

Today, Yanis Varoufakis got exactly twelve minutes from the Black Dude in The White House….during which, all he got back was the usual Obama vapour about “both sides showing flexibility”.

Enough nice guy, already – let’s switch to Plan B: ruthlessness.

We have already seen how a surreptitious assist from the ECB effectively helped Syriza just about clear the last fence erected by Fifi Lafarge and her IMF knitting circle; this and other evidence continues to suggest to me that the very last thing the Berlin/Eurogroupe/ECB brag players want is a Greek default: they have 9-high in their hand – and nothing more.

The world economy is on a knife-edge placed 3 millimetres away from the cliff-edge. What looks like some Friday morning New York profit-taking today could look abysmal by next Tuesday. There is a wave coming: former IMF boss Rodrigo Rato was seen being taken from his Madrid home yesterday by officers from Spain’s tax authorities. He is already being investigated for fraud over his time as chief executive of the Spanish bank, Bankia, which had to be bailed out by the government. He was also a very close colleague of Populist Party leader and arse-licking Brussels collaborator Mariano Rajoy. This is yet more power to the Podemos elbow.

The much-vaunted ‘clean break’ Grexit spun by the media and the EU is a fantasy. The evidence that the US is clearly not in a real recovery has been underlined by today’s data. And with the UK Coalition (three weeks away from a dead-heat election) in receipt of similar data pricking George Osborne’s balloon,it is not surprising that this afternoon the UK Chancellor warned that “one misstep in the Greek debt negotiations could return Europe to the perilous state of 2011 and 2012”.

It is the Empire of Goldmania Sachsini that is under pressure now, not Greece.

In fact, what we have here is a near-perfect alignment of those serendipity stars that will favour David’s victory over Goliath.

Yanis Varoufakis and Alexis Tsipras: play the default card, and mean it. They have only bluff, and you have nothing to fear but fear itself. I understand the risks – and the ‘shame’ this could bring to Syriza among those elements in Greek culture that seem willing to die rather than say no. But the worm must turn, and now is the time.

No offence Grecians, but there is no way Bilderberger, Brussels, Obama, London and Beijing can afford to bring on global tits-up just because Berlin’s dogged control-freakery is inflexible on the subject of a nation that owes a pee in the ocean of planetary debt. The Germans may be well-pleased with the flight to the safety of their Bunds over the last few days, but that’s Fools’ Gold: Wolfgang Schäuble the Ball of Bile does indeed evoke the admiration of Klaus the sausage-muncher in Munchen. But many powerful financiers and game-makers in Bankfurt think the wheels are coming off Wolfie’s chair.

So Gaudeamus igitur Syriza: and carpe diem, because soon enough nos habebit humus.

Related at The Slog: Athens can unearth a mountain of EU malfeasance, but the MSM will still try to cover up Greek innocence.

21 thoughts on “ANALYSIS: GLOBAL EVENTS INCREASE GREEK NEGOTIATION LEVERAGE – WILL SYRIZA EXPLOIT IT?

  1. Yes…
    a difficult call. But look at the numbers to judge how the crowd is thinking.
    Dow down 1.5% today….maybe it’s going to be bad after all…

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  2. It is difficult to imagine how they could not be aware of the leverage they have. So, what gives? I think that there is much more to this than we’ll ever know about.
    I’ll stick my neck out, and say the die is cast, we, are just looking at the pantomime they are performing in order to to sell it to the audience.
    Business as usual…

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  3. Not one penny of the bailout money has gone to Greece. It’s all gone to the holders of Greece’s sovereign debt, where German banks play a big rôle. For Merkel, it’s better to play down this angle. YV alludes to it in calling the bailouts a Ponzi scheme but he fails to explain it to the unsoaped — he’s pulling his punches for some reason. Maybe he thinks Greeks aren’t ready to endure the consequences of full-blown default

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  4. I would be a seller of French and German bank shares, in anticipation of the Greek crunch in May,short the Euro, long the dollar after its bounce, heavily short sterling in anticipation of the Sturgeon sell off on May 8, and a buyer of Renishaw

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  5. John, It strikes me that almost the whole world looks to the US for leadership when the same US tries to pull the wool over people’s eyes. Why s the US$ so strong? For political reasons. If it was called the Argentine Peso it would be worthless. The fact is that the US is an importing country and in it’s current situation needs to make imports cheap so it claims that the US$ is worth a lot, when in reality with QE, QE2 and the rest t should be worth squat. Countries during the 1990’s who wanted to trade in other currencies were invaded. Check that out and see. Axis of Evil? Check that out too.

    Now the Chinese (always wanting to copy) are setting up their “Central Bank”. This could turn the clock back a few decades – and I hope it does – and perhaps will allow some of us to be prepared for what eventually will be coming down the pipe.

    Eventually we will se the US enter in depression, and I mean depression along with the EU. What will happen after that normally, if history ells us anything, means direct war.

    Thank goodness I’m in the Southern Hemisphere and have space to move around. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not a tin foil hat guy, I just had time to step away from the frame to see the painting.

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  6. The evidence that the US is clearly not in a real recovery has been underlined by today’s data

    Now if the US is clearly not in a real recovery, and this is with their casino banks inflating the economic figures! Surely in a real world, their bonds would be under pressure, just like Greece’s and the peripherals are?

    With the US under pressure, the pressure on the periphery would be much reduced. After all, were treasuries at, say 4%, you can imagine how much money would be flowing in – and those people wouldn’t have to scratch an income by pressuring Greece.

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  7. This could snowball. Ron Paul is the soundest man I know on big money & big politics.
    He predicts the complete collapse of the $US currency & social upheaval, big style.

    http://www.orders.cloudsna.com/chain?cid=MKT033949&eid=MKT041109&snaid=&step=start##AST03347

    After Ron Paul’s analysis, it’s a sales pitch for a book.

    I’ve just started reading John L. Casey’s book, Dark Winter, which predicts a 20 to 30 year mini ice age, which he claims has already started. He dismisses the man-made CO2 cause of global warming/climate change as pure hype, with which I concur 100%. It is, however, eerily similar to the hype supporting the world’s ponzi scheme main economies. Casey’s book looks at the vast upheavals caused by the Dalton Minimum, the last Little Ice Age, 1793 – 1830. Time to buy some warm undies?

    John Doran.

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  8. Pingback: John Ward – Analysis : Global Events Increase Greek Negotiation Leverage – Will Syriza Exploit It? – 18 April 2015 | Lucas 2012 Infos

  9. I think the Eurocrats are reluctant to pull the plug on Greece not because of the financial fallout that might ensue but rather the death of the dream of a united Europe free from war (and under their total control).

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