EXPOSED: The reason why none of us can be sure what’s going on in the EU v Greece yawn

merkmario1ptWhen there is only cacophony, nobody can follow the tune

I’ve posted many times before about why a neolib minority constantly dissembles to confuse: there is so little ‘truth’ behind their ridiculous socio-economic and fiscal theories, they have no choice but to do what they do.

The same thing applies to the European Union, the ideas behind which – non-sovereign federalisation and yet a single currency ambition – make no anthropological, banking, libertarian or Bond market sense at all.

But there is another reason why second-guessing what comes next in the EU has been an impossible task in recent years: the people allegedly running it (another Slog hobby-horse this) are split along several crucial dimensions. So apart from the banking lies and the let’s-rewrite-history school of mogul-lapdog tabloid journalism, we have this factor added to the witch’s brew: if they don’t know what’s going to happen next, how the hell are we supposed to speculate with any accuracy?

We are now, little by little, beginning to see the odd glimpse of holey stocking beneath the holy, long skirts of sanctimony pumped out by the various power points in Berlin, Frankfurt, Paris and Brussels. Even better, we can catch these glimpses…..and view them alongside what the BSDs – preparing for what they think is to come – put out their agenda in the media they own and/or influence.

This morning offers a classic example of this. The Americo-Austropathicus threat Rupert Murdoch puts out this version of the immediate future in his Times newspaper this morning:

‘….Eurozone countries are secretly drawing up plans to expel Greece from the European Union’s single currency as they prepare for the country to be declared bankrupt next month.

A memo drawn up by the finance ministry in Finland, which is closely allied to Germany, has revealed preparations for a Greek exit from the euro.

The document warns of “very difficult political decisions” this spring amid predictions that Greece will be bankrupt next month unless the eurozone agrees the next tranche of aid for it within the next three weeks.

Greece has been given until next Friday to come up with…..’

Here the message ends, the rest of it hidden behind Roop’s paywall – which continues not to get many people paying to climb over the wall. This is slightly different to the Telegraph, where the Barclay Twins peddle their corporate bias completely free, but both readers and journos are climbing a Berlin Wall in a desperate bid to get out.

But the tone is clear: Greece is a disaster area, they’re all scrounging mongrels, so like dogs they shall be kicked out of the house. Except of course this can’t happen legally without treaty change….so here we see more Turdcock readying the ground for something illegal that will be accepted by the Sleeple because they, er, read it in a quality newspaper recently or something and what should we download from Netflix tonight?

Here, Murdoch is doing the will of ECB boss Mario Draghi….because he agrees with what Mario and the Goldin Sacks lads see as the future.

But this is just one power centre. Wolf Street pointed out yesterday in another smart piece that the Jean-Claude Drunker view of the world is quite different, because he leads the EC – an unelected bedlam of corruption which is seeing its power rapidly eroded by the ECB and Berlin, plus the odd Weidbombe thrown in by Frankfurt.

This time, the road being followed conjures up an entirely different future…one in which the FuhrerJuncker’s Luxembourg will be left alone to pull every tax-evading bank stunt in the book, but those in the commercial sector will be asked to return to some vague version of recognised value.

We’ve been here before, but the subhead is ‘Clubmed banks no longer able to disguise loan made in 2002 to Tartan Paint Co Venezuela sa as an asset’. This is going to cause all kinds of mayhem in Greece, Italy, Portugal and especially Spain – where the practice has been used to suggest the banks are still solvent, when of course we all know they’re broke.

More importantly, although the ECB pays lip-service to reforming ezone banking accountancy, the EC policy will put it on a collision course with Mario Draghi.

But we don’t want to leave it like that, good God no – get a grip dear reader: this is the EU, where disaster must be meticulously planned to ensure that it moves from probable outcome to racing certainty.

And so we move on to Wolfgang Schauble the Secret Wheelchair Weapon…and Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank’s Big Banana. While they share the ECB-Eurogroupe-Troika’s general approach – “Let’s blame Greece and show the markets we’re safe” – the Dutch Donkey Dijessilbloem is hated by the ECB because he’s a threat to their power….and despised by Weidmann as a fiscal lightweight. Dieselboom also has a tendency to blab, a trait which doesn’t endear him to Wolfie.

Where the two Germans chiefly differ from the rest of the pack is that they believe in fiscal and currency discipline – and of course, the ulltimate right of Berlin to run the Fiskalunion. Also their heads are stuck in 1923.

Two days ago, Weidmann went public again to say he did not think Greece should issue any more Treasury Bills – to help stave off the bankruptcy forced upon Greece by a Berlin-exaggerated problem and a Wall Street/Troika inspired infinite slavery repayment ‘programme’ – and he did not think QE was necessary. In short, real monetarism rules, OK.

I’m sorry to labour this point, but these are thus the three ‘strategies’ being proposed by ‘A United Europe’:

1. Greece should be kicked out (ECB)

2. Banks should be telling the truth about their balance sheet fraud (EC)

3. We should stop QE now and get Greece back in the programme at all costs (Germany)

Now, what we are not going to get is a debate followed by a decision, because this is The Fourth Reich, and we don’t do discussion…we do divide and rule. Also we have a crypto-Queen in Berlin who never makes any decisions until one eventuality or another is crystal clear. (The real sign to watch for is Frau Doktor Merkel moving her Chancellery fridge down into the bunker. Or Moscow. Or Frankfurt. Or Washington. Those wanting to have it all must “get on their bikes”).

What we will get is all three being followed at the same time. And this must involve a continuing QE blast alongside Greek forced exit from the eurozone (breaking the Lisbon Treaty on at least five counts) but still in the EU plus a contagion outwards towards Italy and Spain accelerated by the EC’s search for Beyond Basel III to come into force plus the German financial and fiscal power centres trying to effect the exact opposite on all fronts.

There are thus in turn three potential (ie, realistic) outcomes:

1. Chaos

2. Draghi & the Eurogroup cut off the EC’s balls, leaving Juncker as a very loose but fully-loaded cannon, and with a very high voice.

3. Merkel sides with the 1923 Tendency, and leaves the eurozone.

Many other related events will of course follow – and the above trio of troubles aren’t mutually exclusive. But my view remains the same as it was by the end of 2010: the euro is dead, and the EU is eating itself. Only Mario Draghi launching a putsch to get himself declared Supreme Emperor of Europe could stop the process.

That isn’t going to happen. Draghi’s view of chaos is “bring it on”….because down that road lies US domination of all european transactions. For in this, the epoch of Western decline, that is what the Looney Tunes on Wall Street, inside the State Department/CIA axis and in Texas want.

The bottom line: anything could happen, and nothing will change on the road to global corporatocracy.

Yet.

But eventually, top-down will collapse…as all flawed administrative processes do. And after the chaos, things will very slowly get better.

I end where I started. With too many factions wanting different things from the Greece deadlock – external and internal – the reason no clear interpretation of outcome is possible swings on the surreal 3D hinge of there being no united Sovereign, and little or no commonality of aims between the factions.

Last night at The Slog: Surreal tooth extraction and the SamCam Tory campaign implant

24 thoughts on “EXPOSED: The reason why none of us can be sure what’s going on in the EU v Greece yawn

  1. Now I know of old not to read more into any DT article than is there, however I see they are predicting announcement of “Hilary” announcing a 2016 Presidency run this weekend
    Just what else is who preparing to slip out “under the cover of (bad) news” ?

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  2. Even the Pink ‘un’s at it:
    The FT led its post on German industrial production for February with a declarative sentence that implied Draghi’s QE madness was already working like a charm . . .—said the FT: “The European economic engine is accelerating.”
    Not exactly. . .By an infinitesimal fraction of difference, February was higher than January based on the older, much higher originally reported level which was drastically revised down. Have the FT’s blithering hacks no shame?
    Taken from: http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-false-recovery-narrative-even-the-financial-times-is-shilling-for-the-money-printers/

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  3. No-one can “expel” Greece from EZ, certainly not Finland – indeed Treaties exist for Greece to leave EU voluntarily but not EZ. Ever-closer Union, they call it. This has been the case since the start of the problems in 2010.

    So now Greece is turning to Russia – the US will get involved either directly aiding Greece or indirectly pressurising rest of EZ to help Greece, or both. Russia won’t have to find any money – which is lucky. A cheap gas deal will help Greece – but Gas prices are falling anyhow so it is not costing Russia that much. And the chance to score points against the EU for Ukraine will appeal to Putin. Greece blocking Qatar gas pipeline may appeal to Putin too.

    Debts will be restructured as per Tsipras previous comments – the “odious” discussions won’t be required but will have done its bit to soften up the lenders – “you either get your money when we can afford it or not at all”. Fearful of electoral reaction, the rest of the EZ will take something sometime instead of nothing now. After all, technically it is not “lost” even if it won’t be repaid until 2100!

    Of course, the other little PIIGS might want something too. That will come later – as will how the various governments sell the softening up on Greece to their electorates.

    J

    ps – I see the ECB has injected a bit more into Greek banks. Ties have certainly not been cut. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11526366/European-Central-Bank-boosts-Greek-banks-as-IMF-default-is-averted.html

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  4. The obfusication is to disguise that if some nation is to be “the bad one” then Greece now holds the label. Then all the politicians run around blaming everything on Greece to pretend the economic system they created that serves them so well with bribes / corruption does not have a problem. Considering the cost it is kind of cheap really, bailing out Greece indefinitely but just enough to support a far larger amount of bad debt knocking about and if it becomes an issue in any other nation you can transfer it to the bad nation to hold.

    Greece will never leave and the ECB with the rest have Greece exactly where it wants it.

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  5. I’m pretty confident Germany will side with Russian and China and the rest of the vassal states of Europe will try to follow.

    The Uk will be one of the last ankle yapping dogs wagging its tale for its new master but it may be bullied, bribed or threatened with all sorts of nastiness from its current abusive partner the USA into to starting a European war against Russia.

    Can’t wait for the anti Russian news items to increase after Greece gives the EU the bird.

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  6. It’s perxactly the same across the pond. The UN IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) campaign to prove that we’re all going to boil, & it’s all the fault of of vile industrial mankind’s production of the evil CO2 plant food that is the sole cause, is getting ever more desperate as it falls apart.

    The IPCC case is built, largely, on computer generated climate models, which have never made an accurate “projection” of future climate conditions, ever. The irony is that as their models’ “projections” differ further from reality, IPCC announce ever greater confidence levels in said models. :)

    For the Cardinal Sin of publishing a peer reviewed paper & building a climate model that works, & that anyone of average intelligence can work, using a hand held engineering calculator, such as I used to use for surveys of bay windows or conservatories, Dr. Willie Soon has been turned upon most viciously by lobbyists, Democrats, his colleagues & employers of 25 years at the Smithsonian Institute, & all who are interested in keeping the CAGW/CC gravy train rolling.
    It’s a thoroughy disgusting witch hunt.

    Expect such witch hunts pursuing truthers to get more desperate & vicious over here.

    http://www.wattsupwiththat.com/2015/04/10/calling-all-supporters-of-willie-soon/

    John Doran.

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  7. “Greece has been given until next …….. to come up with………………..”

    Another date deadline of the hundreds within all these last years up to now !!

    We are sick of it , let it be.

    We should finally have a quiet normal life.

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  8. It was said (UK press yesterday) that professional accountants are something of a rarity in Greece so nobody is quite certain how much remains in the Greek piggy bank.

    Alternatively if they can afford the paper and ink perhaps Greece just ran off a large number of Euro notes using somebody else’s prefix or a substantially larger number using their own which were exchanged at a discount.

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  9. John, “the Barclay Twins peddle their corporate bias completely free”. No: the Telegraph permits a number of free article views (30 per calendar month?).

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  10. Mr Soon failed to follow requirements that he disclose his funding sources.
    A large part of his income comes from companies who have a vested interest in obfuscating the clear link between CO2 and global average temperature.
    Kind of like a researcher paid by tobacco companies trying to disprove the link between smoking and cancer.
    Mr Soon was pilloried for a good reason.
    And the fact that his “simple model” is actually far TOO simple is neither here nor there in this particular case.
    Mr Soon lied by omission, and in the process cast huge doubt about his work – after all, the man who pays the piper calls the tune. He should have disclosed his funding sources, just like everyone else publishing papers in journals has to do.

    John Doran – please try to understand, Anthony Watts is NOT a reliable source of information. He is the worst sort of screaming witch hunter, rude and abrasive to those who “oppose” him (all climate scientists) yet quick to claim outrage when he feels “picked on” for his numerous errors.
    Try reading some of HotWhopper’s back catalogue of Watts’ bloopers, cherry picks and disinformation – Sou writes very clearly and also explains the science showing exactly why Anthony Willard is such a plonker.

    PS I see you still have the “plant food” meme stuck in your head. It’s nonsense – far more variables affect plant growth than CO2 – and the potential dangers of increasing global temperatures far outweigh the potential benefits. SkepticalScience has a number of articles on this subject, from basic to advanced level – you should try educating yourself instead of blindly repeating Denialist nonsense.

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  11. Rowan, Dr. Willie Soon abided by his contract with the Smithsonian. It was the Smithsonian itself which signed a contract granting, wrongly IMHO, anonymity to Southern Co., subseqently reneging on that contract condition. Dr. Soon’s contract was with his employer, the Smithsonian. He stuck to that contract. The Smithsonian’s contract was with it’s grant donor, the Southern Co. Smithsonian broke the terms of this contract. I hope Southern sue & take ’em for a packet. Did you bother to read the article at all? Do you understand the slightest thing about contracts?

    Anthony Watts is best regarded as host of a somewhat staid site, of IMHO unquestionable integrity. People put articles up for publication, Anthony & his mods publish them on the site, if they think them interesting, & the many viewers comment. Often the comments are more informative & interesting than the articles. wattsupwiththat.com is more accurately characterised as a discussion forum with a large library of past articles for interested people to read & make up their own minds. WUWT carries a list on it’s home page of different sites of differing opinions: Warmists, Lukewarmists, sceptics, way out there rant &theory etc etc. The only site to earn the label “Unreliable” for altering stuff is skeptical science, which is run by the cartoonist John Cook.
    You completely mislead in your characterisation of both Watts & his site. A screaming witch hunter he most certainly is not.
    You lie.

    The Skeptica Science site’s chief claim to fame is the “97% of scientists agree” con job. Stick ‘97% consensus’ in the WUWT search box, read 2 or 3 of the many articles available & see how that falsehood was manufactured.

    Regards CO2, while there has been no significant global warming for 18 yrs 4 mths, CO2 concentrations have increased by ~
    10%. While crop yields have increased by ~ 15%, a slight cooling trend started in the year 2000.

    I hereby challenge you to post an article or opinion or comment on WUWT claiming a direct & dangerous correlation between CO2 & global warming. I’d love to see you demolished by the sharp minds commenting there. :) I’ve seen it done.

    In return for your remark that I should educate myself & stop blindly repeating “denialist” nonsense, I hereby challenge you to debate the CAGW/CC scare scam openly on this site, if we can secure JW’s agreement. I’ll wipe the floor with you.
    The word “denialist” is an odious attempt by warmist bedwetters to associate people such as myself, who refuse to swallow the CO2 is dangerous pill, with those who attempt to deny the holocaust. Dirty tactic.

    John Doran.

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  12. Well done John Doran.
    I predict that it will not be possible , even should JW allow it, to have a rational debate with Rowan.
    The operative word there is rational.

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  13. @ JD and farmerbraun,
    Indeed, one might begin by asking Rowan to respond to some of the many excellent points made by Pointman in 2013 – [https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2013/08/02/why-would-anyone-believe-a-single-word-coming-out-of-their-mouth/], to wit:-

    – “Why are they attempting to substitute science by consensus for scientific proof?
    – “Why is anyone who simply questions the science being equated with a holocaust denier?
    – “Why have global temperatures not risen in the best part of two decades while CO2 levels have kept on rising?
    – “Why did it take them nearly fifteen years to finally concede that the global temperature had not risen in all that time?
    – “Why, in the absence of any global warming, did they switch the threat to climate change?
    – “Why do they need to get science journal editors removed from their jobs because they dared to publish a dissenting paper? ”

    – and wrt Rowan, who shouts ‘Liar’ at those whose opinion dares to differ from his own –

    – “Why can’t we get a straight answer to those simple questions rather than abuse, outright propaganda or simply being ignored?”

    As someone commented – “The low quality of alarmist sites is indeed as surprising as the low quality of the comments left by those allowed to respond. When one takes into consideration the average material in places such as WUWT, it makes the alarmist look even worse.” Indeed many of the comments on sceptic sites are clearly deep;y knowledgeable , often humourous and rarely abusive. A final warning is sounded by another commenter – ” … even without the long history of malfeasance by climate practitioners and their Greek chorus, one’s neck hairs should stand on end when any group sets itself up to be the monks who appoint themselves guardians of dogma”.

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  14. Pingback: John Ward – Exposed : The Reason Why None Of Us Can Be Sure What’s Going On In The EU v Greece Yawn – 11 April 2015 | Lucas 2012 Infos

  15. Hear, Hear @Rowan. While we are at it we may also ask further questions about their adjustments to historic temperature data which keeps making current years the hottest on record. Talk about seasonal adjustments. When the Australian Meteorological Bureau was challenged on its latest set of ‘seasonal adjustments’ which surprisingly makes past years cooler, its response was that it was following ‘World’s best practice’. Sort of makes sense while being nonsense!

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  16. Pingback: Exposing the Euro Clowns | Doomstead Diner

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