The latest opinion poll from Greece has a more robust sample than the last, but confirms its findings….and establishes as clear fact that Golden Dawn is now the largest Party by voting intentions in the Hellenic Republic.
The results combine the findings of two online polls conducted by electronic newspaper Zougla.gr over the last two weeks.Golden Dawn has consolidated its lead with 22.6%, followed by SYRIZA with 19.2% and New Democracy (effectively the ruling Party) third with just 16.7%. Independent Greeks and KKE are on 4.9% each, with junior Venizelos-led Coalition Party PASOK near-insignificant at 4.5%.
Assuming some horse-trading on Right and Left, we are still looking at a stand-off in the next election. All told, what we have here is Right 35% and Left 25%. But even though one could produce a Government with neither Syriza or GD in it, this would be a suicidal thing (socially) for any Establishment to attempt: disenfranchising 3 voters in 5 isn’t a very clever strategy.
There are however some astonishing new signs on the “where votes were gained and lost” dimension. For example, 16% of SYRIZA defecters went to Golden Dawn….suggesting that some Greeks care nothing for political ideology, they will just back anyone who stands up to the Troika and Brussels. The new GD support is also heavily biased towards middle class, fully-educated respondents. A psephology source in Athens observes, “The impetus behind to Golden Dawn among well educated people from all over Greece shows that Greeks are looking for a National leader with clear Patriotic, national priority and not political messages. It also states very clearly that Greeks will turn their back on Europe if it continues this ridiculous saga. As long as European and Greek government politicians do not undertand this, the numbers of GD and other nationalism parties will rise [because they] put their country first and on top of everything and everybody. This is to do with the values of a nation, of the family, of the culture.”
Support will grow further for Golden Dawn once voters wake up to the reality that debt relief has been cancelled, and default some time in the Spring of 2014 is now inevitable.
Last April I posted from Athens about the Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras as follows:
‘I suspect the truth is that Tsipras is already leaking support further down the social scale as he backs away from EU and geopolitical confrontation…’
In September I posted from Kalamata:
‘Greece’s Leftist rainbow from disgruntled Pasokists via Syriza to the KKE needs to wake up fast…The same Patriotic Liberal/Left Front is required as that created before and during the ejection of the Colonels’ Junta. This time however, it must eject over time three things from Greece: Establishment corruption, the euro, and rule from Brussels.’
Tsipras has failed to take note of this. So the baton is passing to Golden Dawn.
This is a crucial moment for the Syriza leader. Either he bites the bullet, becomes more inclusive and rejects foreign rule by madmen, or he will increasingly be seen as just another collaborator. And he does not have a lot of time to decide.