CRASH 2: The sociopathic money is planning one last heist before everything goes bang

Beware the ides of March?

Scanning the data on futures betting suggests that there is some insider knowledge out there preparing to profit from a major fall in the VIX, and a rise in precious metals.

I’ve posted about the VIX before. It a well-established measure of disturbance, uncertainty and panic in the markets; the higher it is, the nastier things are. But in the wacky world of Bourses where you can bet on two flies crawling up a Wall Street window, you can also bet on what the VIX will do via its own futures Bookie, the VXX. Most futures bet sector bands take the measure or price they’re looking at, and stick an x in it…hence VIX/VXX. These betting shops are like a cross between an Egyptian gambling pit with loaded dice, and a cock-fight where the Champion has been fed 15 mgs of Valium an hour before scratch-off.

This from an American source over the last few days:

‘The VXX….somebody is buying puts [bets on a fall] for March big time….Just looked at February puts on the VXX and it is even more heavily skewed….more on the VXX….it gets even more heavily skewed to the puts on the June contracts….”

I’ve looked at this myself and spoken to a couple of people. I think the bloke is right: somebody is betting bigtime that confidence will improve during the Feb/June window of 2013.

Zero Hedge reckons VIX over-confidence is related to a sense that the Debt Ceiling is now ‘solved’ – although of course it isn’t. The question we have to ask is, are any of the folks placing these BIG puts really that dense? My answer would have to be, “No way”. However, if these putters knew that either (a) Obama was going to get a new higher ceiling through or (b) an agreement was very close offstage between Congress and the President, then they’d be justified (ethics and criminality aside) in placing big bets.

Beyond the US debt ceiling, there is some negative position-taking on gold.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard believes a new Gold Standard is on the way, because the Central Banks are buying so much of the shiny metal. I agree about the new Standard at some point, but I also think many other banks are buying gold because of its newly heightened value on a balance sheet…and the urgent necessity for repair thereof.

However, if such a Gold Standard revival were announced during late January/early February, then VIX sentiments would become far more positive about that too (also pace my previous posts about gold-backed eurobonds, and the German gold repatriation).

The Central banks want the gold price capped for many reasons, but the latest and most important ones involve the needs outlined above in terms of backing paper and repairing balance sheets. So they have a vested interest in not paying too much for gold….as indeed do the Chinese.

So as a bet, gold prices being artificially suppressed makes sense.

There are also signs of precious metal Big Dick jiggery-pokery beyond gold. Eight days ago, an unprecedented 572 tons (18,378,092 ounces of physical silver) was added to the SLV ETF universe…. the biggest one day addition of silver to SLV in ordinary course operations. It is also more silver than was added to the ETF in all of 2012, when just 544 tons were added in the entire year. In one freaking day.

Somebody out there is expecting a mega-increase in demand for silver. And guess what? My source adds, looking at the March option puts, “Someone has some rather large bets that silver is going up”.

None of this is going to be based on genuine fundamentals: it feels like some big shovers and makers are about to stage one last set of counterfeit events to clean up at the expense of the mugs: a major rise in confidence, another fall in gold, and a major rise in silver.

Stay tuned.

Earlier at The Slog: The fall and rise of Newscorp

18 thoughts on “CRASH 2: The sociopathic money is planning one last heist before everything goes bang

  1. If you’d seem the amount of Euribor near month call strategies going through a couple of months ago you’d have assumed that those in the know had had the nod that a further ECB rate cut was nailed on at the last meeting. I get your drift but it ain’t necessarily so…


  2. It was a principle that one bought on the expectation and sold on the news so the euphoria since the autumn seems to have been virtually entirely on the expectation rather than the news so as with everything change is the order of the day when one buys on the expectation and the news, as long as theCB’s band continue to play QE music.

    As an aside as these were spread bets how much was actually laid out in money terms and what is the cost per 100 basis points if VIX changes?

    IMO buying puts in a spread betting form is not a market mover (although the 1987 crash was halted by a somewhat similar move in buying options/ futures on the relatively small Phillie exchange)

    I would suggest that similar rises in more liquid indices are even more relevant in the futures market because that is where the MOU play.

    I think that rationally (as if that is of any relevance in the financial markets today) given the consistent down grading of world GDP growth and therefore presumably not so stellar EPS growth for companies where is the risk on confidence fairy going to conjure a compelling buy signal for further anti-gravity rises in financial markets?

    Note although the US dollar has been generally weak in the recent past so that foreign investors have not benefitted entirely from the incredible rise in financials due primarily to the FED and now all other major CB’s the real game in 2013 is going to be IMO the currency wars and who wins the race to the bottom.
    Finally has not the PM market been a risk off signal whilst lower VIX very much a risk on indicator?


  3. Well, if you can’t beat ’em…

    Waiting around for crashes is… somewhat challenging – and I would remind you again of Hofstadter’s Law :)

    I think both silver and gold are going up, but silver shows signs of being the one to rise faster. Long on a weekly basis already, but what of the monthly?
    Here’s monthly SILVER/GOLD ratio. If this is going up, then it’s generally considered bullish because as you know silver has industrial uses, whereas gold is just a last resort store of value in times of stress:

    Screen Shot 2013-01-22 at 10.43.27

    It’s a retest of the August low – which was itself a fakeout buy new low and also a bullish key reversal.

    If it closes up this month (white candle) and then starts to break north from Feb 1, that will be an entry signal.

    So while we know there is skullduggery, there are also valid technical reasons for getting long silver.


  4. Pingback: John Ward – Crash 2 : The Sociopathic Money Is Planning One Last Heist Before Everything Goes Bang – 22 January 2013 | Lucas 2012 Infos

  5. Siver, Bitchez! Bullionbypost, in Birmingham. If you show up, purchase under £5000, you don’t have to show ID. I think. Otherwise, boating accidents may be necessary. Silver, Bitchez!


  6. On this day in 2011 1oz of silver would have cost you roughly 4.94 Bitcoins. Today 1oz of silver will cost you roughly 1.84 Bitcoins. Silver’s soooo last millennium bitchez!


  7. Exactly. Common sense has been saying the scam will collapse for years, yet there always seems to be one more kick down the road. The collapse will not happen until it happens, and with the CB’s proactively intervening every time there is a wobble, and with the politicians, and MSM lying constantly, I hope there are still many trading opportunities left before the Great Reset.


  8. Pingback: CRASH 2: Focus on the Page One stuff | The Slog. 3-D bollocks deconstruction

  9. Pingback: New Slog Post: CRASH 2: Focus on the Page One stuff "Why the tricksters’ top ten takeaways will tear up everything" #johnward -

  10. Pingback: John Ward – Crash 2 : Focus On The Page One Stuff – 23 January 2013 | Lucas 2012 Infos

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