If Recep Erdogan’s expansionist aims are to be realised, then he can’t alienate the military completely. Over the last three weeks he has been dropping hints and giving signals that show-trials and purges in the army should now come to an end. He’s the best person to decide such a thing, as he’s run it since Day One.
But of course if you want sabres to rattle at Israel, then you need committed officers to hold them. And it’s hard to invade Cyprus without officers to lead the troops.
Seven days ago, the north Cyprus Cabinet changed the name of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (unrecognised by almost every UN nation except Turkey) to the Turkish Republic of Cyprus – ie, dropping the all important ‘northern’ descriptor. The decision was issued on May 23, and is to befollowed by the issuance of new biometric passports for all the citizens of what remains, in reality, a rogue State.
The north-Cypriot Government decision hopes to neutralise and undermine the current UN Security Council Resolution, which states clearly that the international community does not recognize the TRNC (now the TRC) as an official state.The Turkish-Cypriot citizens will be identified as “Cypriot Turks” in their new passports, something which is expected to allow them to travel more easily in different European and Islamic countries, such as Pakistan.
The problem remains, however, that the whole of Cypus is, technically, an EU member. So if Edogetyergun decides to award himself the Turkish Republic of Cyprus, in order to remain a member and comply with its rules he will have no alternative, poor chap, but to invade the entire island. And if he then makes the TRC a province of Turkey, why, then of course the Sprouts will be forced to recognise Turkey as a whole.
They could get together an invasion force and chuck Erdogan out of Cyprus, but there are two problems with that scenario. One, it would take them about thirty years to raise the army, and another thirty to organise the invasion; and two, they don’t want to annoy Mr Erdogan any more than David Cameron does.
This is all academic anyway, as within five years at most, there won’t be an EU. All I can say is, thank goodness the Greeks bought €150bn of arms from EU founders Francogermany. Otherwise, where would we be now?