Papademos…possibly not entirely honest with Greeks

IMF blunder forces out the truth about post-election crackdown

Yesterday, the IMF released disastrous forecasts about the Greek economic outlook for 2012. Unwittingly or otherwise, this development set Athenian journalists and anti-Establishment groups on a hunt for the truth about post-election austerity. The details (revealed today in Ekathimereni and other newspapers) can only benefit the smaller anti-EU Parties. The revelations follow hot on the heels of Monday’s Slog exclusive about plans to install another unelected Prime Minister in the event of an electoral dead-heat.

The Greek deficit this year will be far greater than expected, the IMF announced yesterday. According to their new report, there will be a need for additional spending cuts of more than 15 billion euros between now and 2017. This would represent 7.7% of gdp.

The IMF expects the deficit to end the year at 7.2% of gdp – something of a leap from the 6.7% previously forecast.

The new government (if any) to emerge from the May 6 election will have to bite the bullet and cut a further 11.6 billion euros from 2013 and 2014 alone. But yesterday’s IMF  update hints that spending cuts will continue well beyond 2014 – from 48.9% of GDP, spending will have to go down to 41.2% of GDP by the start of 2018 fiscal year.

The Troika team in Athens (so popular, their offices were bombed last week) are hard at work, as the election unfolds, finalising the new measures. But as discussed here on Monday, the implementation of these depends on a pro-EU Coalition being in power. The very fact of electors now knowing what’s in store is certain to affect the election against the EU’s interests. Maybe, once could hypothesise, that’s what the Sprouts want anyway.

Whether the new measures see the light of day or not, the account of them splashed today by Ekathimerini makes for almost unbelievable reading:

1. Further cuts in social benefits.
2. Cutbacks in defence spending without regard the country’s defence capability. (But, I’d imagine, exempting German contracts)
3. Restructuring of the central government, which will operate with less staff, meaning that there will be more layoffs in the public sector.
4. Cuts in drug cost subsidies, and hospital expenses to be slashed, removal of some existing health benefits.
5. Wages and the pensions to be reduced by at least 15%.

According to Vima newspaper, Troika’s first target is social benefits given to larger families and single mothers. These benefits will be removed without exception.

As yet, nobody in Brussels, Berlin, Washington, or the IMF seems to have detected the likely link between severe cuts and falling output. As The Slog has posted endlessly, once debts get beyond a certain size – and cuts to control them are left too late – the maths simply don’t work: lots of noses get cut off to save lots of face, but it’s all pointless. This has been the major learning from the eurozone crisis…and at a lower (but equally serious) level, it represents the exact same dilemma as that facing George Osborne: far too much cloth was ordered, and cancellation came far too late. Not even a draper’s scissors can defy that logic: it is immutable.

Thus the Left v Right, Cuts v Stimulation debate is completely sterile throughout the West. Cutting output still further to chase uncatchable debt is sheer insanity. As I have said right from the start, debt forgiveness on a massive scale is the only answer: it is too late in the day now for anything else. There is no such thing as ‘austere simulation’: it is just another mad oxymoron invented by the Brussels morons.

Yesterday, The Slog told everyone that the necrophilia will continue until more sane voices are allowed to be heard. As usual, you read it here first.

From the Archives: Either forgive debt, or face disaster.


  1. All well and good but what are they doing about the last set of Bond defaults that were postponed from 23rd March to April?


  2. “debt forgiveness on a massive scale is the only answer:”
    As if it is possible… too much megabuck are leveraged on the government debt; it will not be voluntarily forgiven. Asking for debt forgiveness is akin to asking a patient to cut his own gangrening hand. He knows it is threatening his life, but he will not do it. I am afraid that the only POSSIBLE endgame at this time is a collapse of social order, anarchy, revolution, and re-building from the scratch. The political-economical system is too broken to mend itself; the self-mending mechanism is itself broken.


  3. The following is a link to a copy of an interview between Business Insider and Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, the President of Iceland. The President who put a flea in the ears of the EU and IMF and referred his politicians’ plans of subservience to the two organisations to the voters in a referendum.

    interview with Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson

    Iceland is doing quite OK now and the IMF have left having learned more that they have taught. I wonder why they have not used this acquired knowledge and used it in Greece.

    I believe that Iceland is now going to forgive all the private debt of its citizens to the Icelandic Banks which have now paid back all outstanding foreign indebtedness after liquidation. Investors in the Banks had to take the hit, not the citizens.

    A long read but very well worth it.


  4. One problem is everyone’s insistence that they are trying in earnest to “save” Greece… the plan has always been to either devalue the Greek economy and governmental infrastructure to the point where it could be controlled by foreign interests (ripening the country for German investment) or… push the country so far into crushing poverty that they decide to leave the Euro on their own. Germany and the Norenos have never done what was prescribed to save Greece, even defying their own economists, and the worlds leading economic policy makers from the very beginning… the reason they are following the policy that has been an utter failure to save Greece til now, is simply because saving Greece is not what these policies are DESIGNED to do. Everybody has to stop thinking the Germans are some kind of bumbling idiots that don’t realize what they are doing and understand that Germany NEVER does anything without a clear goal in mind… it’s just that sometimes it isn’t the goal you may be led to believe… that is a warning to other countries relying on Germany to be true to what they say they want for other Euro “partners” as well. Also… if you remember the very fact that these numbers are higher than was agreed on actualy means Greece has already broken the bailout agreement and they could stop payment at any time they see fit… this is how they will keep the politicians in line regardless of what the “voters” want.


  5. And the numbers quoted for further austerity measures will only be, at best, optimistic forecasts.
    Greece is utterly broken, and will remain so within the system it chose to join.


  6. Germany pulled the plug on the idiot Lamont (UK Finance Minister)in 1992 in the ERM fiasco, in the background of the pictures is the lurking Cameron.
    Greece must extricate itself from the Euro now. Now the German Banks have retrieved most of their funds, the Greeks can go and stuff themselves.
    It would be far better thing to be done now than in the distant future.
    Greece needs to regain control of its own finance and economic future.


  7. The whole story about Greece is in fact the very definition of Conspiracy !!!
    it should be on dictionaries !!

    between june 12 and june 15 Greece kicks the bucket !!

    by the end of the year, Europe will have collapsed and Turkey will have attempted a fresh new deterioration of annoying and bankrupt Greece

    The story as we all understand though, won’t end there however…


  8. Debt forgiveness is a bollocks approach designed to fleece those that have by those that had. The drawback or plus point depending on your point of view, being that the forgive them their stupidity for they know not what approach doesn’t exactly identify who is the stupid one.

    Greece will default, something it should have done before, reinforcing the lesson to lenders that nothing is without risk and the massed ranks of the Greek population can vent their anger at the ones who brought them to their position of pain, much quicker than penned postings in the blogosphere can.

    A harsh highly visible lesson for all involved and all those watching, aware that someday soon in a theatre nearby we will all be appearing in the same play, acted out with the same bullshit lines, culminating with the same bullshit ending.

    A debt, a debt, my kingdom for a debt underlines the deeper message behind the Bards plays.


  9. Pingback: John Ward – Greek Election Sensation : What The Voters Weren’t Told…But Just Found Out – 18 April 2012 | Lucas 2012 Infos

  10. ‘Papademos…possibly not entirely honest with Greeks’

    C’mon, he’s GS material why would anyone expect Honesty?


  11. As The Slog has posted endlessly, once debts get beyond a certain size – and cuts to control them are left too late – the maths simply don’t work: lots of noses get cut off to save lots of face, but it’s all pointless

    nonsense. it’s extremely painful but it’s not pointless. unless the only thing you focus on is the “output” – which got the Greeks into this mess in the first place. keynesian hunt for the “output” funded with cheap money and external funding. gov-spending-based “output” is not “productivity”, it’s merely “being busy”, a painkiller, and a real economy killer.

    there’s no way other than debt forgivness AND severe austerity. without them BOTH, the maths STILL simply don’t work. the best you can hope for is Argentina, but it’s getting unlikely the markets will be taken in again and again.


  12. This crisis will only end when the austerity measures spread to the bigger E U economies and the people take to the streets.The euro zealots will only be stopped by street violence.


  13. Read that Bloomberg link for what it is – the mass repatriation of sovereign debt by Club Meds **at the same time** as the mass divestment of foreign sovereign debt by the EZ Core.

    Two things follow: (1) this is clearly a concert party at work, (2) it is looking like the ultimate objective is a restructured EZone comprising the Core (plus who else?) but without the Club Meds. It should be possible for those with the numbers to have a good guess at the earliest date this Little Implosion will happen.

    Circumstantially, the prospects of the Greek elections (not to mention bombs) must look uncomfortably warm for the cabal, who we see from their every move are cowardly and fearful. Best that the Troika minimize their presence when the shit hits the fan.


  14. Iceland’s value as a model for Greece is very limited. The reason, of course, is that Iceland has it’s own currency, and so they could and did devalue massively. This option is not available to Greece.

    Here’s a good graph (from Krugman’s blog, of all places) showing just that. The top blue line is Icelandic wages during and after the crisis, measured in the domestic krona. The bottom lilac line is the same wages measured in euros. As you can see, the Icelanders didn’t lower their wages at all in nominal terms, but could still achieve huge cuts compared to the rest of the world.


  15. Here is something interesting I’ve just learnt about Greece: Greece has not had a current account surplus in 40 years notwithstanding 2 huge devaluations.

    That suggest to me that leaving the Euro and or debt forgiveness will not be the simple answer to the problems of Greece.


  16. An RAF buddy of mine made a thought-provoking comment the other night regarding the almost inevitable civil unrest that’s coming to the majority of the world;

    “We’ve known for a few years that the Yanks are training a lot of police and troops for civil defence / anti-riot roles and that most European countries are doing the same to some degree. I wonder if it’s occurred to anybody in the conspiracy theory camp that those US CENTCOM troops might be intended for Europe, and our for the US? A squaddie might not be too keen on shooting at his fellow countrymen, but he’ll be perfectly happy to shoot at foreigners!”

    Makes you wonder.


  17. Greece always had significant tourist revenues, plus shipping, plus many wealthy Greeks living overseas. Even a one hundred per cent haircut will not solve the problems, but at least they will manage it themselves.

    An informed view, many years ago and is worth a read is the

    ELUSIVE UNION by Prof. Kenneth Dyson. Have to go as I am off to Beijing tomorrow, where very major decisions are being discussed right now.
    China could be the major player in Greece once they exit from the Euro.


  18. Yes, ironically a similar thought had occurred to me, I too wondered if the Euro police turned up in Spain, how would the local police feel about the EP shooting their own kind?


  19. I don’t think even yanks will shoot white europeans on mass….I think they’ll have to conscript mercenaries – shouldn’t be a problem, they have them all round the world


  20. ill see you there
    in the square to let them know
    where to go
    ill see you there
    its about time they listerned realy we have nothing left !


  21. Letter from Papademos to Barroso today:

    Last two sentences:
    The implementation of these policies will be complementary to the growth-enhancing structural measures of the second economic adjustment programme. The mutually reinforcing nature of this two-pronged strategy should bring forward the recovery of the Greek economy and forge the foundations for sustained growth.

    so, with all that investment money, the future looks rosy – if you’re on planet Goldman


  22. China into Greece, China into Argentina, China into Africa left right and centre. China into Spain?
    There was a peice in one of the Aussie financial papers two days ago that just happened to mention that the combined Brics and Asian economies just passed the Western trade figures for the first time.


  23. The only way to save grace is default – but because politics are involved that won’t be done until the very last minute if it’s the only option left on the table.

    From the very start of this mess in 2007, Greek GDP had to grow at 10%+ per annum for them to break-even – there was no way that was an option and to date all we have is a mess that has been delayed reactifying because of politics.

    Politics of every kind is reactionary by nature, citizens want preventative measures in the first place – classic catch 22 as politicans won’t rock the boat until it’s taking on severe amounts of water and by then it’s too late! But up until the critical point, there’s no problem in the eyes of the government until it’s hand is forced.

    Just one of the reasons, never to trust a politician, the journalist they’re feeding inaccurate detail to or general media following the herd.


  24. But, according to Australia’s government, our debt is not nearly as bad as Greece’s, so there’s no need to worry. Besides, when compared against the entirely irrelevant GDP, $230billion looks quite small. I mean, it’s barely a quarter of the entire economy, so why worry? Now the Greens are complaining that Labor is intending to forecast a surplus in 2012/13 (which will never be met, not even close), saying that economic times are too tough to stop spending far more than we earn.

    Australia is already squeezed between the choices of running yet another deficit which will ruin its credit rating, thus the banks, thus borrowing rates, thus interest rates, thus the economy; or running a surplus which will certainly place Australia in recession. AND WE ARE SUPPOSEDLY THE BEST ECONOMY IN THE OECD!!!!

    Anyone looks good when compared against Hitler, Basil Fawlty, Frank Spencer et al.


  25. If someone believes that Hellas is the problem.

    This is the best jock.

    At the far end , China is waiting for the big battle and then what ?


  26. Wouldn’t that just incite the locals to more violence? Surely Americans would be less submissive if attacked by European troops than by their own, and vice versa? They could be planning it, but it would be idiocy, as revolutionaries would be emboldened by attacks from foreigners.


  27. Professor Dr. BigWig that Dyson book was written in 1994?

    40 years ago was 1972. Wiki’s page on the Colonels has this interesting snippet: The 1967–1973 period was marked by high rates of economic growth coupled with low inflation and low unemployment.

    Perhaps I should add that I am too young to remember the Colonels and I used to be a member of Amnesty International.

    I’ve just read Michael Lewis’ book Boomerang. The Guardian said this about it:
    Greece went mad on avoiding tax payment and collection because, as a nation built on feuding, nepotism and graft, no one trusts anyone else and each Greek is out to look after himself

    Funny but, true?


  28. Reading this I cannot but think there are parallels with the needs of the UK. In that spending needs to come down from 48.9% to 41.2 in the case of Greece. And without looking up the figures, I do not believe the UK is much different?

    A 10% drop in UK Government spending against GDP would be an opportunity to cut personal and business taxes, to kick start a recovery?


  29. Honestly can you lot please try and catch up!
    The Pentagon is moving to arrest ALL of the protagonists in the NWO power grab , they have been planning action against the crooks for as long as the Cabal have been planning their NWO.
    The legal documentation is in place now and they will shortly announce a list of the leading players they wish to apprehend which according to “Drake” who is acting as spokesperson with the Pentagons blessing contains lots of household names!!!!!!!!!
    All the details are on the “Divine cosmos” website fronted by David Wilcock
    and proof of signed legal documents as well.
    I know John hates conspiracy but this time its real and your missing a massive story unfolding so for cliffs sake do yourselves a favour and head to the above website and educate yourself.


  30. Pingback: Greek Election Sensation: What the Voters Weren't Told... But Just Found Out

  31. Pingback: IMF blunder forces out the truth about post-election crackdown in Greece | Machholz's Blog

  32. And now they want more ‘structural funds’ (RDF). Is there no end to the cash the Greeks want? How will we stop the next dollop going the same way as the last (into a lot of private pockets)? Corruption rules in Greece. They have to address that before getting any more grants.


  33. A majority of Central Banks are losing confidence in the Euro. That must surely be another nail in its coffin.


  34. The subtitles on this report on Telesur, the pan Latin American TV station based in Venezuela appears to confirm the mortgage debt forgiveness.


  35. Pingback:  GREEK ELECTIONS: How the Papademos Government ‘forgot’ to send any tax bills | A diary of deception and distortion

  36. Pingback: John Ward – Greek Elections : How The Papdemos Government ‘Forgot’ To Send Any Tax Bills – 4 May 2012 | Lucas 2012 Infos

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