There is now no way the eurozone can avoid going down the toilet
You have to worry when all the EU sovereign States most in trouble have the banks most in need of recapitalisation. Thus, the three biggest needies are Spain, Italy and Germany. (Greece’s banks are already being propped up by EU money anyway)
Hang about…..Germany? Yes, moralistic, harpy Germany: and half of it is required for Commerzbank. However, this isn’t the end of the story – although to read some of the press, you’d think it was. The key thing is the quotient between the degree of buffer banks have, and what their exposure to ClubMed debt is. For example, France weighs in at a mere 7.3bn of bank recap, but its exposure to Greece and Italy is horrendous.
I recently posted about ECB bond-buying levels, adding ‘that we know about’. Today, Open Europe confirms that Mario Draghi’s central bank is already heavily intervening in markets far more than we’d been led to believe. ‘Through its government bond buying and liquidity provision to banks,’ says Open Europe, ‘we estimate that the ECB’s exposure to weaker eurozone economies has now reached €705bn, up from €444bn in early summer – an increase of over 50% in only six months, raising fresh questions about its credibility, independence and possible losses it may face in the case of future sovereign defaults’. Yes indeed….but most of that must have been initiated by Tricky Trichet. Old Hatchet Face tried to come across as Mr Parsimony – but the truth is that his fear of being asked to do more was of even his own bank falling sideways.
Meanwhile, Bazooka ammo – even via the IMF – is still proving to be a thing more rare than American financial aid. Of the non-European nations asked for help so far since China, Japan and Brazil said no, Canada has just replied rather abruptly with a ‘sort yourself out’ rebuff. George Osborne has evoked more outrage about la perfide Albion for refusing to stump up the 30 billion he was under absolutely no obligation to offer in the first place. And the US, as always, will not be putting a hand in Uncle Sam’s pocket, on the grounds that they never quite know what may be in there. As non-eurozone countries were expected to raise ‘at least’ 50 bn euros, this is quite a shortfall.
Within the Ezone itself, Germany’s Bundesbank said last week it would only contribute if non-euro zone and non-European countries did too, so that effectively brings us back to, erm, nothing.
I’m not quite sure if anyone else is keeping a running score on all this, but by my calculation, what was going to be a leveraged 440bn euro EFSF turning into 1.3 trillion via Spiv investments, plus an additional 2o0 billion from the IMF (a grand total of 1.5trillion euros) now looks more like 600 billion….falling short by a mere 60%. Or, as a French credit manager put it this afternoon, “Nowhere near enough”.
So in brief, the heads-up is this: thanks to half-bankrupting itself to buy junk bonds, the ECB doesn’t have enough for proper bank bailouts; all the banks that most need buffers have the smallest ones; and the EU itself has just two euros out of each five required to stop multiple defaults.
Would you volunteer to be the guarantor for this heap of crap? No, me neither.
Stampede underway Mark. Treasuries auctioned today at 0% for 4 week money, less than 1% for 5 years. The only place the big boys trust over the holidays is Uncle Sam’s Treasury.
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“-You do expect that the if the Euro imploded the GBP would continue to be a successful stable currency”
Hi EdwardRR, you got that from this Blog? Blowed if I have. Still as they say, ‘beauty is in the eye of the beholder’.
Joking aside, I thought that everyone was accepting that we would all go belly up together but just that outside rather than inside the EU, we’d *recover* quicker. Maybe I have misunderstood what JW and other’s are saying.
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I have been following this blog for some time now and find it pretty amusing. But I do not understand the rational of some of the arguments:
-You are expecting the Euro to bounce.
-You do not want to invest any money in supporting it.
-You do expect that the if the Euro imploded the GBP would continue to be a successful stable currency.
Especially the last point takes me by surprise as:
-Great Britain is the core of toxic banking industry and
-As the basic economic data of GB are much worse than the EU’s.
So is your belief part of a special religion that I do not know or are there other hidden elements that cannot be understood by continental Europeans?
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BT
Yep; they don’t make a comeback after a visit to Madame Guillotine!
Wishful thinking I know, but it is the only thing that makes me happy these days – sad.
M.
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@Carys
You back up my point: this is not about cultures per se, but about basic regulation. Regulate the tax authorities properly and tie this into strict regulation of the banks and you have the solution.
Even with that, the North will still be contributors. What the North does not want is for that money to go straight into the clutches of the banks in the way that Britain’s QE has done.
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@Richard G
My avatar was fraudulently used in the first instance – and on changing that meant that my Troll had to use other underhand methods to do his business.
If you look at the fraudulent Avatar, you will see that it is grainy and has been taken from a small picture, not a large one (say 400×400 px).
The issue is about mis-using a person’s identity not about the legitimacy or otherwise of multiple avatars. Indeed there would be no need for multiple avatars were it not for the presence of a Troll. I was happily using my other wordpress-linked Gravatar until it was misused courtesy of those who have so far done nothing to stop this practise.
On a blog that stands against corruption, that is pretty poor.
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He might be quietly preparing to start up the printing presses but wants it to be on someone else’s orders, not his own… But he is also intelligent enough to know that it will only be a short-term palliative to get them through to the next crises. The right solution is for the EZ to breakup but that will mean the end of the EU’s dream and of many careers. My heart bleeds for them…
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The democratic institutions in Britain – as we know them – do not deserve to survive. They suffer from systemic corruption introduced by successive governments, civil servants and all other agencies of the State through incompetence and hidden agendas. Sadly, the only known way to effectively get rid of unwanted despots is by revolution.
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Yes – I had that kind of thought on my way to work today: it is the kind of situation which evolves and then some external force changes the dynamic in a way nobody quite expected.
And yes, still predicting the printing presses to start rolling in 2nd week of January.
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I’m slightly suspicious of the German Hausfrau’s sudden olive branch to Brits. Channel 4 seem to be slightly puzzled. Jon Snow:
“I’ve just hotfooted back from watching the friendliest of encounters between Germany’s foreign minister and our own William Hague, both stressing the depth of our two nations’ friendship. But there was no mention of the reported British resistance to contributing at all to bailing out the eurozone, despite Mr Hague saying that this was our two nation’s number one priority.”
Is Cameron gonna hand over the money behind the bike sheds? hhmmm.
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I’ve always thought that were it possible I’d want to have a house with a stream and (more importantly) a mill race thus I could set to and generate my own electricity and heat even if I had to make the water wheel first by hand
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“All this talk John, I’m geeting impatient for a result.”
Yep, it’s like training for a marathon and getting to the peak of fitness two weeks early, the only way from there is downhill.
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“So where to put my money?”
Switzerland ?
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Nipper and the stores are all a next possible victim of the recession
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The Troll is however only active on this Blog despite there being at least a third username for the same Avatar
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what we can offer as a way of improving the lot of those UK based “adding value” organisations trying to export
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All this talk John, I’m geeting impatient for a result!!
Also, I worry that when this is all over, what the hell are we all going to talk about?
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@Potato Head
“I have been stolen from and lied to – forgive me if I’m not in a forgiving mood.” – I appreciate what you say. I had my pension stolen too. I will add that to admit one’s errors is indeed to accept forgiveness – it is something that to a proud person is searingly humiliating. Fat chance indeed.
Remember this too: just a few comments away, a fraudster has stolen my identity. It is as immoral as stealing your 20 000 that you had saved, and when you came to buy your new home and had no money, someone thought it extremely funny because they had just bought a nice bottle of wine with that money. No doubt Mr Ward thinks my troll is funny – indeed had he acted as any gentleman should, the troll would have been dealt with.
This is important in the context of forgiveness: for Mr Ward thinks he is in no need of being forgiven, for he has committed no crime in allowing someone free expression. There is a point at which free expression is no longer free if the person expressing their views does it by impersonation.
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The ultimate shell game!!!
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kfc
Agree 100%. We are sleepwalking into serfdom,despite the fact that we have them by the balls.
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He has already opined that the euro is doomed.
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McSoap
I think more serious will be the lack of money to bail out banks. I retain my view that a bank collapse is more likely to set the ball rolling.
By the way everyone, I found myself attracted to the idea of a a new comedy foursome called the Karl Marx Brothers.
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wasn’t the €500 note the best in terms of value per actual cubic metre when you needed to ship suitcase fulls of the stuff
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when isn;t it ~ or most other programs come to think of it
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It’ll cost more than that for a technician to get to it and get the air out of the system.
Once again “short termism” economics and no “joined up” thinking / planning
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The first reaction of the over taxed (or in some cases, the taxed at all) is to move straight to cash. That is clearly happening in certain circles in the UK. Put VAT at 20% and people won’t pay. Little known fact: Spain has the highest concentration by far of €500 notes. There are more there than in the whole of the rest of the EU. Now why would that be?
This is a serious issue. Any organisation, even the thoroughly corrupt EU, depends on taxes being paid. And if they are not paid by one group, others have to make up the loss. Clue: the others live in the north and are net contributors.
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The trajectory of the underlying economics makes it almost certain that the Euro will end in tears. However the exact tipping point when the can can no longer be kicked is harder to discern. My guess is that some eternal random event will spook the markets rather than simply an economic event, Ie Iran, Korea, Earthquake, assassination etc. Having said that the debt rollover figures for France and Italy are truly enourmous in Q1 2012. So Xmas 2011 might be the time that Germany calls it a day. Better a planned exit than a rout at the hands of the bond markets.
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@ GEMZ
“It is also given to humans to forgive. There is no circle of hell for those who are forgiven.”
Normally I would agree with you but it’s not about ACCEPTING forgiveness, it’s about admitting one’s errors/greed/lack of compassion and ASKING, even in this instance (the bankers) BEGGING for forgiveness. Fat chance!
Why do you think there is (well maybe) or perhaps should be a Hell except to punish? Why does one punish? – not to correct the behaviour but to discourage others from doing the same. I have been stolen from and lied to – forgive me if I’m not in a forgiving mood.
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His master’s voice!
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And just where is that mobile phone?
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BT
I think you are correct, there is a way to go yet, and it would appear that with Germany extending the olive branch to us, it has no intention of leaving the Euro.
I am begining to think that Merkel has realised that fiscal union imposed and manged by Germany will not work so, she is intending to force the ClubMeds into managing it all by themselves and if some banks go to the wall in the mean time so be it.
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Yes, absolutely spot on, I do think Draghi is just “treading water” at present, there’s something in the background going on I’m sure, he just seems so “unconcerned” about anything.
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Meanwhile in banking Britain,it emerges there is a dramatic shortage of £20 notes.The Russian oligarchs,for whom I clean up,are fleeing to Monaco for Christmas and the New Year,previous years it was all the ski slopes.Is there a big meet up in Monaco of oligarchs,for the Yanks as well as the South Americans are decamping and very tout sweet!
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Sir,
The kommandant has suffered a commercial blow to his enterprising sausage business as he is not sure if the new leader of North Korea will be able to afford to continue buying the Bratwurst Wiener (his speciality).
http://kimjongillookingatthings.tumblr.com/
Please would our dear slogger comrades direct their wholesale sausage enquiries to me on this post.
Merry Christmas friendz.
(sombre tone in black arm band)
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I read somewhere that the safest banks are Swedish banks – might have been Carys on here – they’ve just recently had a makeover courtesy of the Swedish taxpayers – took almost a decade I believe.
Otherwise buy gold bullion, its cheap and it will go up again eventually, always does, just make sure you have enough cash on hand to bury yourself.
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Lately the image of a spinning dreidel has caught my imagination as a visual metaphor for the Ezone clusterfug. Over the past few weeks it’s gone into wobble mode and you know what follows that. But what I didn’t know I just found out from Wikipedia.
The dreidel is used in a gambling game played around Hanukah (soon). Coincidence, I don’t think so! Well actually I do think so but spooky eh?
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The IMF can focus the mind of a borrower like no other entity can ever do, because it carries the muscle of the US military in its back pocket. Whether that can work in Europe I don’t know, but it has worked in the America’s and in Asia.
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@freefloater – I suspect its because they haven’t got a clue mate. One things for sure, mainland people would stop shopping for anything but bare essentials. That would hurt China, who might want the US to return some of the money they borrowed, and ….. war.
Its often easier to waste one’s efforts on worrying & fretting about other peoples problems than working on solving your own problems
But they’ll smudge the ink, fudge the numbers, and make sure it can all survive at least until the November 2012’s, then Obama’s got another 100 days to fix it – any suggestions as to who the new Sec of Treas will be, my bet is that Geithner will throw in the towel.
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Well, the ECB’s Draghi reveals himself to be a group-thinker dreamer:
“…you have a lot of people, especially outside the euro area, who spend a lot of time in what I call morbid speculation, asking ‘what if, what if’.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16253026
Somebody needs to tell this fool that IF the what if questions had been asked before the Euro was introduced, it might not be suffering probable collapse that we see now.
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What happened to the picture up top? An endearing feature if ever.
People are getting way out of hand with their panic, if you ask me. Darkest before dawn and so on. Those figures at creditwritedown site don’t seem so alarming here. Bit reassuring, in fact. If they are at all correct then what you have is a very finite problem — one that can be managed and overcome.
But not with fear, for heaven’s sake.
Apocalyptic fears are normal this time of year and especially amongst the aging. Denial of death has never gone out of business. It is an agonizing thing to live — no two ways about that. From everything to nothing. Along the way the duty of life is to endure it.
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All banks are insolvent Mark – its when the illusion fails that bank runs occur. Its the image of credibility that our financial debt-money system relies upon. Unfortunately, we’ve broken through the ceiling of credibility and are wrestling with the contradiction of the system that the only way to pay back debts is to create new and bigger debts. We’re now in a period of incredulity as tptb attempt to repair the illusion.
I personally think that the system has reached its limits and its not fixable in the normal manner. It will therefore collapse as a result of its own logical momentum.
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Marx brothers! More like a ‘Carry on film’
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@B***gger
Sorry, I haven’t received it – your having said that, I tried to find my blog email address only to find that I hadn’t actually set one … it is years since I was active on Punt.nl. Nothing came through on my professional site either – but that is invitation only these days so you probably would not be able to find it.
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@laurence: or even the real life government of Gordon Brown.
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@Potato Head
It is also given to humans to forgive. There is no circle of hell for those who are forgiven.
The ability to accept forgiveness is a different matter though, and those whose interest is of money only usually have little interest in other matters. That is a bigger problem.
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So where to put my money?
I live in France and I have put taken my money from a French bank and placed it with a more secure? Dutch bank (but still based in France). But is it really safe? God knows. I have actually heard people are starting to withdraw money from ATM’s and keeping it under the mattress!
I was in the market to buy another house in France, but have held back, as I have watched house prices fall dramatically. The notaires report price rises, but thats only in Paris, everywhere else houses are not selling, prices are falling. House prices are predicted to fall by at least 10% next year in France. Consumer confidence is on the floor. The local butcher has had to send out fliers to drum up business, remember, just one week from Christmas, this is a business that has been around since 1974 and from what the neighbours tell me he has never advertised before.
DSK in China is reported to has said this week that we are entering the final weeks of the euro in its current form.
I am now starting to believe the days of financial armageddon are upon us.
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I must away to my bed, just as the sun will rise tomorrow, I will be up much before it..bugger…at my age too….
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I have just been to a northern British city as is my habit at Christmas. There is a truly enormous new mall in the centre, still under construction after about 10 years in the doldrums. Since last year it has progressed in leaps and bounds. The locals (well the local papers, actually) are very proud to be moving up the UK’s retail space rankings. I would not say the city is short of any kind of shop, there being hundreds in the centre and many more in the surrounding suburbs. But a giant new mall is coming, needed or not. There’s a big space that needs filling and that means a mall!
So it’s a giant leap for mankind, still more wretched shopping space. Rents per M2 will be enormous and business rates fantastic, driving retail prices even higher.
Does any EU country need any more retail space? If it’s replacement of the obsolete, can they please demolish the existing shops that are no longer required and build houses? Or better still, refurbish the existing shops and just build houses where the giant malls are going.
Endless growth of high end retail is not the way to run an economy. Prices are high in the UK and we should look to reduce them, not add layers of cost in glitzy malls.
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Soap.
Yes, I did glance at that article, mainly because, although I think he is absoulutely correct, in the scheme of things, that was showboating with no intention of carrying though the motion. It does on the other hand illustrate my point. We are at the point of no return should we decide that that is the road we should travel on.
Within weeks the general public could bring this country to it’s knees. I never understood the violence that various terrorist groups have engaged in in this country, all they had to do was stop they money…so simple…nobody need get hurt..but, stop the money men…THEN things will change.But, then, a whole new economy grew out of that…boy, we need things to change around here….
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It is indeed a paradox that we are in and out of the EU and its currency, often on the same day! That means, of course that we get to share in the costs of filling the porcine trough but find it difficult to get our snouts down into those succulent benefits in quite the same dedicated way as nearly every other EU country. Now I do understand how we got into this sty (we were misled by some shady PIIGS), but somehow I don’t think we would have chosen either the route or the destination. We might have chosen a different trough entirely. Piig swill be Piigs!
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“But can we, by faith alone, move the bankers into the ninth circle of hell”
Haha, I don’t know if it’s right to ask God for that! Besides, in a way, they are already there, they are pretty much universally hated. Would you like to swap places with Fred Goodwin? I don’t think I’d care to.
I also want to wish all my fellow bloggers a peaceful and happy Christmastime. xx
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Councils get only a tiny proportion of their income from council tax. Most comes from central government. You need to worry about the latter, it could easily run out of borrowing capacity, especially if downgraded. And it is borrowing we are talking about, VAT and PAYE and fuel taxes would soon grind to a halt. Something of a consolation, the BBC would also run out of funds rather quickly. Shame.
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If Euroland was a closed economy,a central bank could keep refinancing banks and sovereign governments until the cows come home.The present stresses are due to the Gulf and China voting with their feet,ie withdrawing money from the EZ system(to the temporary benefit of the Anglo Saxon criminals),and dear old crypto communist Angela’s late arrival to the Havana 3,hell bent on the destruction of the EZ and the UK by causing a deep recession, and inflating the money supply out of sight,respectively.Where this ends I have not a clue,but the answer is not more Europe(is it?).
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But can we, by faith alone, move the bankers into the ninth circle of hell which is reserved for traitors who are distinguished from the “merely” fraudulent in that their acts involve betraying a special relationship of some kind?
(Dante puts Cassius and Brutus there with the worst place reserved for Judas Iscariot!)
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If the ECB has been buying up all this Euro debt, then its shareholders will have to cover the ECB debt. The UK is a 14% share holder in the ECB.
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re my earlier blog – forgot to mention Spain. Remember Franco, Salazar, Mussolini, Charles de Gaulle, Papadopoulos? Even in Poland (General) Pilsudski seized power in 1926. South America? Two coups a week there on average, so it sometimes seems. Not to mention Africa, Central Asia, S.E Asia. KGB takes over in Russia. I’m sure there are more, just too depressed to think of any at the moment.
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KFC, I agree. Problem is that if we do that what tends to happen is some poor bloke down the road who feels he is being honest and doing the right thing ends up paying our share as well. Which of course is not on. We can’t organise any kind of non payment because the ringleaders would end up living rent free at her majesty’s pleasure. So in theory the power is there but it’s not easily accessible.
Unless it gets to the point where people simply can’t pay. Which is kind of what’s happening on an international level.
Did you read about the Portuguese Socialist who was talking about using debt as a weapon? Maybe it will all fall appart.
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Sounds like something out of a Marx Brothers film.
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On a Monday night? Is it a repeat?
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The Financial Services Compensation Scheme last week instructed UK high street banks to clearly display notices advising depositors that the FSCS guaranteed the deposits of the banks’s customers (up to £85,000). The FSCS has also undertaken a burst of TV advertising which also covers the guarantee.
When I asked why this promotional campaign had suddenly taken off, my friends confirmed what I’d been thinking. There’s a run on the banks right now, and the Treasury, through the FSA, has directed the FCSS to do its utmost to stop the haemorrhaging of cash from the banks…without raising the alarm. Looks like it failed there ! And no wonder. It seems that the ratio of UK bank debt-to-GDP is the highest in the world. I’ve also heard that the BoE is already putting the finishing touches to Quantitative Easing-3. The only thing preventing QE3 going ahead right now is the proximity to the New Year with the BoE waiting to see how much money is withdrawn from the banks in the run-up to the New Year. The BoE is in an unenviable position. If customers draw out lots of money, AND SPEND IT, over Christmas and the New Year sales, it weakens the liquidity of the banks. If people don’t draw out lots of money, then the BoE will assume that a poor sales showing over the Xmas-New year period indicates that the UK is back into recession. The worst result, and the one most likely now, is that customers draw out lots of money and DON’T SPEND IT.
I have the feeling that the UK will be in big trouble much quicker than the Euro members.
Whatever happens…..I want to wish everyone here a great Christmastime and a peaceful 2012.
Kennyboy
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Sent a message via your Dutch blog address
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Technically, there wasn’t enough bread and fish to feed the 5000, but they ended up with 12 baskets of leftovers.
Realistically, England should have been made minced meat of in WW2, but King George led the whole country, I think it was 29 days of National prayer. The Queens father had a deep faith in God.
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=king%20george%2029%20days%20of%20national%20prayer&source=web&cd=4&sqi=2&ved=0CDYQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ucg.org%2Ffaith%2Fspiritual-reality-behind-kings-speech%2F&ei=cqvvTruyLZO7hAekqKydCA&usg=AFQjCNFCQZvk6A8jfmhI-a_aNaO6AIHcNw&sig2=3IjV8qyD2_nHpxr9GW4tVg
With faith, we can move mountains.
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Potato Head, it’s a very worrying time, we had it coming rampant consumerism was never really a long term economic strategy, it was bound to end in a debt explosion and collapse, it’s an addiction hence the explosion of huge shopping malls and internet shopping, buying things we can’t really afford, abandoning core economic principals
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It may well be that Merkel has indeed been delaying things while printing and storing D-Marks (there have been persistent rumours after all) ready for a big switch. If that is the case they haven’t been distributed yet, you couldn’t keep that secret in normal circumstances, you would need at least a long weekend with the Banks, media and indeed the country at large more or less closed in order to make the distribution without it being seen and reported. Oh! guess what next weekend is!
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Desperation has such a sweet sickly smell.
It is just a question of who will be first, which country will be left holding the debt when the music stops.
Germany is doing everything it can to ensure that “it” is not left with the bill.
In the end Germany is going to be the only one left (within the eurozone) who can afford to do anything about it.
Germany is being very nice to us all of a sudden, it couldnt have anything to do with them wanting more money by any chance.
Eurozone… richest beggars club in the world.
It is a disgrace that they are actually accepting cash from countries who cant really afford it.
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Most people have no idea how much power they actually have, it would take only 30% of people to withhold their council tax, mortgage, credit card bills before it would all fall apart.
In essence what would councils do? Oh rubber stamp you for CCJ but, they would be starved of their lifeline, MONEY, the more that refused to pay the more they would implode. Same goes for credit card companies, just what are they going to do? Again, in essence, nothing. We do have the power to put a stop to all this nonsense, but, oh, wait a minute, X-Factor is on…be back in a minute…
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Gemz, yea to be fair I never really searched for it, I just go along and have a read now and again to see what they’re making of things in general.
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Yep working as intended…
All of this just to get around the ban on direct fiscal transfers.
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@Soapy
Just put “Commerzbank” into the search box of most newspapers and you will come up with sufficient. It doesn’t hit the news every day, a little bit like RBS or the Northern Rock issues.
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Oh I think he realizes everything, especially the need to ensure his pension is intact…
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Am I being too apocalyptic when I suggest that the Colonels might take over in Greece, Italy and Portugal and the Gendarmarie will be on the streets in France? Even the UK had Mosely and his Blackshirts around in the thirties, the last time things were as tough as they are going to be in 2012/13.
I see so much fear and anger in this and other blogs that I seriously wonder whether our democratic institutions are robust enough to survive.
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Of course he will print, there isn’t any other option available to him, just a question of when…
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I try and read their press now and again. Thinking about it I have never seen it come up. I may have missed it, though if not they are in for a shock
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@ACB
If the German newspapers are to be believed, then yes. Whilst a minority taste, my flavour is for Die Zeit (Hamburg) which has 216 articles on Commerzbank 9 of which are from the last month and few are optimistic.
The average German has been paying their taxes to the periphery and to France for half a century now. Paying one’s taxes straight into the pockets of private institutions is another thing altogether, and many of the ECB’s latest wheezes are seen as just that.
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Just as an aside. The new London bus,on a trial run,on the M1 motorway,broke down when it ran out of diesel. A spokesperson said we only put a gallon in,as it is so expensive.
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Borrowing to loan to somebody else so that they can then via a second intermediary loan it back to the party of the first part seems very much in keeping with the whole Ponzi scheme of things to me (unless I’ve missed something somewhere tht is)
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@Rob
He got that right then – big time!
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Re: Nostradamus
Only something about chucking money into Lake Geneva or something like that
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I forgot DSK is surfacing again and although he has no chance of being the Socialist candidate, Hollande is there already, he could be the king maker and step in to help save France, all De Gaulle like?
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Anyone know if Nostradamus has made any predictions
about the coming financial armageddon.
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“And the US, as always, will not be putting a hand in Uncle Sam’s pocket, on the grounds that they never quite know what may be in there.” is a sentence that I am going to treasure. I may well nick it.
There is something that I don’t know enough German to understand, and it is this – do German voters understand how exposed German banks are?
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Im praying also, but I fear there is a lot of citizen screwing to be conducted before hand!
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See my post below, made before I read yours.
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From where I sit, in France, I am wondering if the game is up?
Merkel will quit the Euro and use her banking system to refloat the DeutchEuro with whoever want to climb onboard.
The fluffies about France and the marking down of the debt worthiness of France by the Agencies was Sarkosy getting his chauvinistic retaliation in First. Blame it all on the Anglo Saxons and the UK in particular.
Maybe Merkel has been playing this long game to prepare the exit tactics and mechanisms.
The bit at the week-end about Britain sending in the Fleet, what Fleet, to evacuate the Brits in Spain and Portugal was opportunistic black propaganda.
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Don’t worry. Ben Bernanke, America’s undercover autocrat will bail out the world’s banking system. He’ll circumvent all US political institutions and single-handedly make the largest financial decision in world history. Why? Because he honestly believes (poor little man) that it is exactly that: “a system”. He apparently doesn’t realize that banks are a group of self-interested private corporations who do not share the interests of their host nations. He sees them as a form of “public work” that need to be saved for the world to properly function.
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The end game is surely when the ECB runs out of cash to buy junk bonds. There was meant to be an esm or efsf or spiv or imf or some other bo******s to take over but there isn’t pure and simple. So the question is how much cash does the ECB have? How long can it go on. That is presuming it doesn’t print of course.
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One thing I think we can be certain of, Germany is not going to go down in flames in a pyrrhic attempt to save either the Euro or the EU. When push comes to shove, which may very well be over Christmas, I expect to see Germany exit the Euro and return to the Deutsch-mark before the Euro actually collapses as the least worse option for Germany and the world at large, even the institution of the EU itself. It would make things much easier for Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy. It would truly shaft France, but, well who cares? They even have a ready made scapegoat to blame it all on, us here in Britain.
Well, that’s my bet anyway.
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So Italy is going to contribute to the bailout fund that will in the end be used to bail out Italy…
No conflict of interest or anything then.
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The question is…what is the most likely scenario in this country if there were to be a collapse in Europe? Nothing that I have read so far explains the most plausible consequences in terms that a layman like me can clearly comprehend.
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John, IMF bailout involvement was one outcome of the December 9th Brussels blabfest, trailed as the final solution. I’m sure there are several others planned already, so I’m not too sure this really really is the end game. I mean there’s the whole of 2012 to come yet…
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“When the Euro falls over it will take the EU with it…”
I’m going to pray for this over Christmas :-)
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I doubt very much we are any where near the end game, this will go on for months and months, they know that eventually the whole house of cards will come tumbling down
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Entirely possible Danno…
Most bank runs are self fulfilling (with good reason mind you), it would not surprise me if the same happens with the euro.
I think the idea right now is to buy enough time to get to the holiday period.
It could all tip over during the holiday period itself, perhaps that is what they intend as the markets will be shut down for the longest amount of time.
Could we be looking at a default and possible exit during the holidays… or worse.
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So this really is the end game John.
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The timing of the end game that we are in is interesting, because we are there now.
I suppose it’ll have to wait until the markets reopen in the new year, but one wonders whether there will be a stampede to the exits this week in anticipation – and a mega breakdown of law and order, traditional at this time of year in les banlieues.
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When the Euro falls over it will take the EU with it and by extension the ECB as well, which is in effect just another bad bank.
Bye Bye Draghi…
It is no wonder Axel Weber and Jurgen Start left the ECB, how long until Jens Weidmann jumps as well…
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