Phew, the relief: the US looks like it is going to narrowly avert a default that was never going to happen. Yesterday I only averted a Tsunami by being in the Northern Hemisphere, and today I expect to narrowly avoid knocking down a herd of cows because there aren’t any here. Mind you, there’s only half the Aegean between me and them, so I must be wary. I’ll be giving a press conference this afternoon, and hope at that time to put my family’s concerns at rest.
Jeremy Warner in the Daily Telegraph says Spain isn’t bust after all, but for once he’s not just being stupid: he’s pointing out with a degree of irony that the IMF is trying to reassure international lenders by showing a dramatic forecast for the deficit to be down some 75% by 2018. The snag is that the forecast assumes every last one of the economic and fiscal reforms will be enacted in Spain. And that the Caja banks have finally cracked the lead-to-gold transmutation thing. So in this instance, we have another country narrowly avoiding a default, but this time one that’s inevitable.
I start today with these two articles of “news” because they I think neatly sum up what’s wrong with Sovereigns and the media. And banks, bourses, politicians, educators, citizens and, well, pretty much everyone really. They put out, and often believe, any old tosh. The King really is in the altogether, but now it’s just getting silly.
Antonis Samaras tried a fortnight ago to persuade the Greeks that one tiny surplus in one period was an economy back on track. I have to opine here that Greece will narrowly avoid paying back the debt to the Troika, because the Troika deal makes it literally impossible so to do. I’m am also nevertheless confident that Greece will narrowly avert the need to default next March by getting another bailout. I think this because with Spain, Italy and Portugal narrowly averting any progress in their economies, the last thing the Germans will do is poke a hornets nest down Hellenic Way.
This move will narrowly avert any chance of turning the economically dead eurozone’s fortunes around, and narrowly avert leading to a Banking Union that cannot possibly happen while half its members are broke.
This is, I think, when the 10% eurozone-wide levy I posted about yesterday will come into play. Several threaders and emailers somewhat haughtily pointed out to me that the IMF ‘leak’ is actually a document that was published ten days ago. To which my response is twofold: first, why isn’t it advertised on the IMF website? And second, if the idea is not to give depositors any advance warning of the levy, why float it now in a public document? To me, this reality only confirms my long-held view that Christine Lagarde is both devious and stupid. Thus far in her tenure at the IMF, in fact, she has narrowly averted developing any technical expertise.
But finally, let’s cheer ourselves up on this wet Thursday with the knowledge that (according to Reuters) EU car sales “surged” in September. Do we think they accelerated, went into sixth gear, and really got motoring? Er, no – not really.
Almost all the growth was in the UK. There was an extra production day in the month. Discounting is massive. Dealers are ‘registering’ cars and then using accountancy to make them look like sales. And during the eight months before just this one, the market slumped by 4%. September’s figures – wait for it – narrowly averted being the worst since 2002.
Those of you who wish to face reality should narrowly avert reading, listening to or watching any mainstream media during the day.
If you enjoyed the above, try this: Europe’s breakthrough ethical trade policy
The Slog 