Euroblown: heading for the last round-up

The triumph of bollocks over expectation

This afternoon, Mario Draghi spoke his mind, but his mind complained that it wasn’t ready. Thus most observers were left baffled as to what it was that would be doing Whatever It Takes, or indeed by when and for whom. However, Berlin would veto whatever was suggested, but all their differences would be ironed out in the end. Earlier, Wolfgang Schäuble had ironed Francois Hollande thoroughly, and the eurozone leaders will be enjoying him later as a pancake with maple syrup. Signor Draghi said “Believe me” on a number of occasions, but it’s hard to believe what you can’t fathom. The ECB Chairman ended by saying that, “If the europhiles should last for a thousand years, people will say this was their Final Hour”.

Zero Hedge, meanwhile, reckons that Germany’s real debt to gdp ratio is 300%, or perhaps it was the jet to DDT ratio, I’m not entirely sure. All the numbers just seem to run into each other now, in a stream of dissonance. The best example of this is the scores given by Standard & Poors, who would give a credit rating to two flies crawling up a window if you asked them to. Three days ago S&P forecast that local government borrowing in Europe would surge, roughly akin to putting your neck on the line about Greece defaulting one day. But having said that, the ratings agency confirmed a ‘AA+/A-1+’ score for the French Unemployment Benefit budget: not so much a hostage to fortune as a homage to prestidigitation.

The same day, two Italian regions were given BBB+ ratings based on ‘sound budgeting’ – a fiscal event that clearly passed the rest of us by – and then the following morning the Italian town of Florence was briefly given a BBB+, which was hastily withdrawn because of ‘a negative outlook on the sovereign’. I understand that Florence Nightingale will get a C-B+ (-) D at some stage because of her negative outlook for survival. I myself will be happy with DDD—E (+) on the grounds of a generally negative outlook on life.

The outlook in Greece, meanwhile, is for a short fall. If you’re Evangelo Venizelos, it’s a short fall to the ground from any part of your body, as most parts of this man are horizontally aligned in a manner guaranteed to break a fall rather than a limb. But more seriously, the Troika is coming round to the view that the Athens Coalition is miles off target in its repayment reform and rentrenchment schedules…the ‘Three Rs’. My problem is that, much as I love the Greek people who have been so good to me for forty or more years, I can’t take any of this seriously any more. How can one take a bunch of Brussels clowns seriously when they eschew any form of debt forgiveness, and thus wind up costing the european taxpayer five times as much to achieve ten times less?

Anyway, I leave you with this gobble-dy-gook: “The euro is irreversible,” Mario Draghi said at one point oday, and ‘therefore’  his ECB will “undertake outright open market operations of a size adequate to reach its objective.” It is very rare for any Italian to be happy with a vehicle that has no reverse gear at all. But to use such a vehicle in an adequately outright way to reach an objective, well – what can I say? This really does represent somebody doing whatever it takes.

 

47 thoughts on “Euroblown: heading for the last round-up

  1. Bruce Krasting has an interesting take on Draghi’s comments leading him to hypothesise that Draghi is pointing to a significant depreciation of the Euro as his next move.
    How he achieves this is key and also one needs to take into consideration the impact of this action on the holders of Euros (mainly Asian Central Banks and the Swiss Central Bank) and whether the Americans will welcome the impact of a significant depreciation of the Euro against the USD in an election year with a domestic economy that has stalled.
    We live in interesting times.

      • @ Gemma

        I have spoken to you before about making these sort of incorrect sweeping statements.
        Why would the Americans blame Europe for their woes?
        I sometimes wonder what on earth goes on in your tiny mind that speaks with effervescent authority but is always WRONG .
        I recommend that you learn and understand what happens in the big world before announcing your interpretation which is always COMPLETE NONSENSE

      • Rupes

        the Americans can blame China for their woes, so why should they not blame Europe? Now were you to say something useful that would take that argument further, that would be fine as I might learn something.

        However, all you can do is shout “it’s not fair!” Your simple spouting of “nonsense” in bold letters helps nobody, tells them less and leads them to think that you are the bearer of what you accuse me of.

      • @Rupert – Please turn on any US news channel and you will observe a string of politicians and economists doing just that right now, blaming America’s problems on Europe.

      • Sir,

        Sorry that some accuse me of talking COMPLETE NONSENSE
        I only said what I said because I watch American television all day – I don’t speak Dutch or German, and I hate English people.
        I must stay out of trouble and get a day job.
        Then I will know what I’m talking about.

        ever loving Gemz xx
        note that my man stands by me…..through thicko or thin

      • realgemz… you are a troll. Not even a funny one. I realize that you live to antagonize… probably the only way anyone pays attention to you in life… but could you please… at the very least… do a better job? As in, if you want to make silly statements… at least make them interesting or entertaining, or even make sense. Try to be a better troll please… your stuff is so boring.

      • @ Ioannis

        Are you married Sir?
        We could be an item …don’t you think?
        I love to drink ouzo in the sultry Greek evening while watching the sun go down. We can walk together on the beach, holding hands, while I tell you about Naked Derivatives – my specialist subject you know – while breathing the salty sea air laced with lavender.
        Ohhh, do tell me sir, what is your phone number?
        x

      • Nope… still not original, funny, or interesting… damn, I figured if I gave you a nudge you might up your game a little and give us a chuckle… nope, the same old stuff… oh well I tried. please continue… no one cares.

      • @ Gemma

        Firstly…. DO NOT CALL ME RUPES OR RUPERT. I AM MR BLANKETSTEIN TO YOU

        As has been mentioned, your output seems to consist of what you saw on television. My output is based on what happens in the many boardrooms I visit, within confidentiality bounds. Please do not defend your feeble contribution of COMPLETE UTTER NONSENSE

        Thank you so much…….

      • Rupes – or is it \”Herr Blankenstein\”? I wonder?

        I have never met such a person as you – claiming intelligence and displaying not a whit. I am astonished at you that you can say such things without informing anyone of anything.

      • Ioannis

        I figured if I gave you a nudge you might up your game a little and give us a chuckle

        That is the problem: an imagination like a sagging sponge cake. It is flat and lacking in fizz one might say. Thankyou for your riposte, perhaps it will tell my poor Troll that it really does not have the stuff of fun in it.

        Did you know, by the way that Trolls are Amphibians? It’s wife had tadpoles recently … http://eintroll.blog.de/2012/07/14/gemz-the-real-one-part-3-cellulitis-has-tadpoles-14107510/

    • The charts indicate an objective of $1.10 for the Eur and a long term possibility of parity. Don’t forget the Eur was at 82 cents in Sep 2000 when the ECB stepped in and Saddam announced he was only accepting Eur for his oil. Most of the depreciation will occur after the US election so it should not be an issue there. (As if boobus Americanus even knows what a Euro is. Ain’t that Zero another name for that there Jap fighter in WW2!).

  2. It appears you are just as confused as I am, TGFT, I was wondering whether I had totally lost the plot. I mentioned a number of times that these EU clowns cannot possibly be as stupid as they make out. Correction: they are.

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  4. ¡Ay caramba! There was some movement in the bush today to be sure. Didn’t listen to what Mario had to say – and who cares at this point, frankly – but followed along via 5-min chart of EURUSD and what a ride it was.

    Meanwhile, GS have, according to ZH just announced a long recommendation on EURUSD with a 1.30 target. Look out below, then.

    And lastly, bloody well done Sir Chris Hoy and chums – another gold ( they’re getting cheaper all the time!) and a second consecutive world record to boot :)

  5. According to the DT this morning, Draghi also added the words “within its remit” to his promise the other day to do “whatever it takes to help the euro”.

    DT quote:
    The ECB’s boss, Mario Drahgi, recently said the ECB would do whatever it takes to help the euro but qualified that in his next breath by saying “within its remit” – a condition which has gone largely unreported and certainly ignored by markets. The fact is the ECB’s remit leaves it very limited in terms of what it can do and powerful eurozone countries such as Germany certainly won’t allow it to intervene directly.

    Like some others, I think Draghi is just calling the Buba’s bluff, but he may be reaching for Control-P.

  6. I think he was using the Greenspan method, talk at great length, say nothing, but if you accidentally do say something immediately say the opposite, use profound and meaningful words, gestures and expressions while exuding an air of confidence and certainty. This approach never fails, the ‘markets’ immediately hear what they most want to hear, regardless of what is actually said, or not, and interpret whatever was being said, or not, as positive.

    Politicians all over the world do it too, all the time. And the majority fall for it, every time.

    Any attempt to fathom exactly what their intentions are, what they intend to actually do or not do, or any thing else with some measure of reality is doomed to failure, thus all predictions ultimately fail, only when one big player manages to get all their ducks in a row while keeping the competition off balance and manages to pull the plug and generate huge profits or escape huge losses themselves while screwing everyone else will it all come to a head, or more appropriately, crash.

  7. “S&P who would give a credit rating to two flies crawling up a window if you asked them to”

    I still can’t stop laughing, Love ya John!

  8. The key point stated today is that no country has actually asked for the ECB’s help. So he doesn’t need to do anything. I thank you. Mario.

  9. A Grexit during the Olympic games would be a wonderful irony.Stay liquid,there should be a panic sell off ,say 15 percent,when Spain and its regional system implodes.The decision day is 12 September.

    • @william. Yes, I’ve been wondering whether bad news would be buried while the eyes of the world are on beach volleyball

    • When I read that, presuming there is any truth in it, then I do wonder what all this Syria business is about. Is it just a way of tying up Assad’s forces while they take a slap at Iran?

    • @AJC: I think the Khamenei meeting with his military generals did actually happen and may also have been reported on Stratfor, but whether his predictions are accurate…who knows?

      @soap: With Syria in chaos and the Russians sniffing around Greece this whole Eastern Med & M/E thing could spread into a wider hot-spot…Khamenei threatens to attack Israel, Saudi and US allies in the region (eg Qatar, UAE etc) if war breaks out.

      Note: the Americans now have three carrier groups on site, untold numbers of missiles, 30,000lb bunker busters and God knows what other heavy metal patrolling in the area.

      • @BT: Spin always needs “a germ of truth” to be plausible. I wasn’t commenting on the veracity of the specif article rather than the role Debka plays.

        Of course China also has a major interest in the area – we are seeing geopolitics at work here. This makes it all the more surprising that Lady Ashton (the EU geopolitical expert!) is nowhere to be seen. Has she signed in at some official jolly somewhere nice for 30 minutes and then entered holiday more at a better hotel?

  10. Pingback: Euroblown: heading for the last round-up / Ευρωκατάρρευση, πηγαίνωντας προς τον ύστατο γύρο « eleutheriellada

  11. The denouement for Comical Ali came during his press briefing when American tanks drove into view on the other bank of the Tigris.

    Couldn’t the press pack persuade Mario Draghi to speak in front of a bank of real-time market displays?

  12. Seeing as this is just another step on the road that leads to the trashing of all our government issued currencies I’ll give Bitcoin another mention. Last time I spoke of them on here in June they were worth around $6.20 each. They’re now trading at $10.50 giving them a market cap of around $100m.

    If you think a truly decentralised, digital, peer-to-peer crypto currency may end up being what replaces the current crap we’re forced to use then maybe you should take a look. After all, what does $100m buy you these days?

  13. “My problem is that, much as I love the Greek people who have been so good to me for forty or more years, I can’t take any of this seriously any more.”

    As we to you Sir… We all live this however try living this $%^& everyday. We do not take them seriously anymore either and we are now just waiting for it to implode as we realise:
    - Why are we fighting this amoungst ourselves, lets not destroy our streets and cause harm to fellow Greeks as they are doing a good enough job on their own to implode it. After all patience is a virtue for us now.

    You see Troika, ECB, Americano, Germano whoever, whatever… realise that Greece does not need us anymore, mmmm maybe we need them!!!.

    And not just in terms of Oil/Gas/Rare Earth, the people in Greece have realised this fact and we are saying yes talk all you like we are not listening.

    Genous

    • Some light Hearted Relief… oldy but worth a chuckle…
      Genius Genius Genius

      @Bangers

      Its in no way perfect but its a start and yes it has its deficiancies a key one being medicine but the more this happens and the lessons learnt maybe something new will come to pass.

      • Good for them, although I did read recently that the system has already started to be abused a little once it started to spread to the wider community. At least it shows that, when pushed far enough, people wake up to how much they’ve been hoodwinked by their governments and look for another solution.

        Once the essential layers of applications have been developed for Bitcoin, allowing wider adoption, it may become a real alternative.

    • Agreed… everyone around here stopped caring a long time ago… you can only live in uncertainty on the edge of disaster for so long… at this point no one cares if we stay in EU, or become a Russian colony, or go to the moon with China… regular Greeks are burned out… no one can wallow in sadness, and despair forever… first there is acceptance and coming to peace with it… then the anger starts to build… that is the only thing we have to avoid… if the regular Greek on the street gets that crazy angry that we get… it could get real “Rwanda” like over here. So… we try to keep calm and carry on… to the degree that the world lets us.

      • Can any German contributor let us know how much the German people know about life on the streets in Greece via German MSM. And are they sympathetic enough to say “Enough is enough?”

      • Max C

        you could start by reading newspapers like die Zeit and Tageszeitung – for two completely different views. Die Zeit is particularly well written. Tatz is certainly left-wing and will give you a different flavour.

        If you don’t speak German then of course you could try the English version of Spiegel (but the opinions are tilted to English readers, be warned).

        If you want to know what the mainstream are being told, try Bildzeitung. Whilst notorious, it carries regular and lengthy editorials that would grace the Telegraph for their insight. (Is that more a reflection of the British media I wonder?).

        In short, the German population would be better informed if they so chose to care. I can imagine in the current circumstances, most simply want to keep their jobs. That is certainly more the care of my neighbours here in NL.

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  15. And what about a joint exit from both Spain and Greece in the coming days . FYI, Spain PM Rajoy is due for a conference to the spanish nation today. Have a look at the new National Security Directive that Spain gvt has just issued a couple days ago, precisely after extending power of its National Security Adviser last week. Not to mention “off the record” meetings PM Rajoy has held with syndicates last week and with quite a few German corporations with significant investment in Spain. All this information available in small lettters through conventionnal media coverage. Oh, and Telefonica CEO knows something that we don’t, to take decision to cancel dividend payments and purchase of own shares. I have strong suspition that a plan to convert to Pesta has already been agreed in Spain and is been implemented those very days. Gentlemen, take your bets.

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