Tsipras…he is the future in Greece
Greece can’t live on thin air during August
The media spotlight at the moment appears to be on Spain, when it isn’t on the Olympics. But what it should be on is Greece.
In the last two days, ominous speeches have emanated from the Bundestag and Bankfurt. Greece, they say, is already backsliding. This whole bailout thing, they insist, is an expensive joke.
Brussels spokespersons point out that the next tranche of bailout cash isn’t due until September.
The IMF has publicly suggested it will not lend Greece any more money. (Slog sources say that internally and secretly, the IMF has decided not to lend the eurozone any more money).
“Significant [Greek] delays in programme implementation have occurred due to the double parliamentary elections in the spring,” said a faceless Sprout this morning, adding “the decision on the next disbursement will be taken in the near future, although it is unlikely to happen before September”.
Hark: no decision until September, and studious avoidance of any sign that the decision will be positive in Greece’s favour.
This morning, 
SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras urged the Athens government to reject the austerity programme, as it was ‘programmed’ to produce Greek default, and exit from the eurozone. The Slog first pointed this out in April, complete with figures showing how Greece was doomed to incur yet more debt by accepting the Brussels Accord.
The date today is July 23rd. Slog contacts in Athens and Paris – and a former bondholder representative – have concurred over the last 24 hours on one thing: Greece will default before that September money comes through. In the Daily Telegraph later today (Monday) Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is saying something very similar. Greece, he suggests, “is being asphyxiated”.
Berlin-am-Brussels is telling anyone prepared to concentrate that Greece is about to be kicked out of the euro. In my view, within six months Alexis Tsipras will be Prime Minister of a Greece returning to the Drachma.
I doubt if this will be a drama for the EU – although it could well be for Credit Agricole bank. In my opinion it will be good for Greece. But the denouement in Spain and Italy will be the end for the Fiskalunion…and the eurozone.
Berlin is still, I believe, in a race with Athens to leave the euro first. Stay tuned.
Personally I’ve always said if a country left the euro, first out would be Germany. However I don’t see them (and by default nobody else either) leaving.
savepenrhos.co.uk
“Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is saying something very similar. Greece, he suggests, “is being asphyxiated”. ”
Is he saying that because he wants to show off the fact he can spell the word *asphyxiated *?
Nothing surprising about the comment apart from the fact that most everyone, the MSM excluded of course, has been saying the German solution has been strangling Greece since the outset. Could it be that asphyxiated is too high brow for the masses to understand, thus strangling may continue unabated?
What is strangling Greece is surely the fact that expenditure exceeds income? Germany has little to do with it?
Just Sayin’: “What is strangling Greece is surely the fact that expenditure exceeds income? Germany has little to do with it?”
That was the case three years ago. Greece’s millstone has morphed quite a lot since. Do try keep up old boy.
Go and go quickly, you know you should! Too bad they will miss the 2012 tourist season.
I think the most interesting aspects of this will be (as perhaps the Slog has already analysed) the wider geo-political fallout from this. Greece may prefer to become best mates with Russia, China (?) in return for a bit of dosh and some pride in being able to stand up to Germany, USA etc.
Well… when you have lying, slanderous, back stabbing partners like Germany, and your other partners (U.K., France, Italy, etc.) won’t whisper a word in your defense because they are scared of Germany … you have to hedge your bets … Exclusive oil deals with Israel, oil and natural gas pipelines from Russia, and now the Chinese own a majority of our ports (busiest shipping fleets in the world), and America still chomping at the bit to get their old strategic location close to all the action in Syria, Iran, Iraq, etc.
Germany seems to think they have figured it all out… history tends to prove them wrong in the long run.
You could apply the sentiment “lying, slanderous, back stabbing partners” to any commercial bank, German, American or even British.
Do you imagine that Greece will have many of those pipelines left by the time the Americans have excised their pound of flesh and blood?
Ioannis,
You can call the British many things, but scared of the f****** Germans isn’t one of them. It is usually the British who stand up to the Germans and the French when they are in full arrogant mode.
While I am desperately sorry at the tragedy unfolding in Greece I am afraid you cannot say you weren’t warned. The Eurosceptics here in the UK predicted all of this and no one would listen, least of all in Greece.
Greece should never have joined the damn Euro and, having done so, should have left it 2+ years ago. And yet you all cling to it when it has been a complete disaster for you. Insane.
’tis always the fault of foreigners…..
Concur with Gemma here; You cannot invite 2 thieves to dinner and expect only one to excercise the five finger discount…
Andy?… here we are with Germany running roughshod over the rest of the European Union and silence from the U.K.? for christ sake the markets are destabilized and people are talking about global economic disaster because Germany is dragging it’s feet on crisis efforts… and the counrty that is the center of world markets really… is silent? If Germany miscalculates and buggers the worlds markets it is London that will suffer greatly… so why no comment from the UK… no pressure on Germany?, no standing up to them?
Because you have no Euros to lose? England is being conspicuously quiet considering the sensitive times we’re in right now. What else could it be?
@Gemma… Americans, German… no difference to us, will take same flesh and blood. It’s all about who really wants to play ball more… Germany is not giving us much of a choice but to look elsewhere for more loyal partners.
@ JS… since 2009?, yes. Where we were in 2009 vs. where we are today (after 3 years of German management) is 2 verrrrrrrry different things.
This was always the plan… I told people in 2009 that Germany would just wait us out with half measures so they could remove their banks exposure to Greek debt and shore up their banks for when all their “Europartners” fall flat on their face… when Merkel told the world in 2009 that every country’s debt would be handled separately she announced to the market that Europe was only a “union” when they were profiting from it… and started the wheels of disintegration, The horror you see now in Spain, and Italy and pretty much everywhere is the realization that they have been played the same way… and that the joke is not just on Greece but on everyone.
Sure, the Germans did the smart thing. But why were the Spanish so keen to build thousands upon thousands of appartments beyond what the market could take? Why were they so keen to push their salaries 40% higher than the average in the EU? The fault is ALL THEIR OWN. Those faceless foreigners may have taken advantage of the foolish mistakes that were made in Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and of course the UK. But the grown ups have to take the burden of responsibilty on their own shoulders and find their own solution to it – because nobody else is going to do it for them. If you blame the faceless foreigners you are just one step away from firing up the gas chambers with the Zyklon B. Maybe that is what Germany wants too of course, because if they drag everyone else down to their level they can at least say they have learned what others have still failed to learn.
I’m afraid you are right about Spain, though their middle class has been very highly paid since the days of Franco. I have benefited from that myself in the past. The truth is that they were unforgivably greedy in building 1m+ new houses for which no demand exists or will exist within a decade or more. I note that the Irish are now demolishing their unwanted and unfinished new houses and maybe that is the way for Spain to go – except that 1m is rather a lot of houses and flats to bulldoze. Just to do it would take years, to say nothing of the effect on the highly politicised banks’ balance sheets.
Worse, stupid amounts (partly EU financed) were spent on fast railways, terrific roads, astonishingly avant garde arts centres, state of the art airports in the middle of nowhere, tram systems with no passengers… you name it, they did it. Even those who proposed and defended the fantastic road system (Spain is indeed a large country and does need decent roads) forgot that said roads need to be maintained, a vastly expensive matter that was never foreseen and now it seems requires all dual carriageways to have tolls. Ouch! Talk about the sting in the tail…
Unfortunately, every Spanish-proposed solution seems to require everyone else to write off Spain’s debts via 25 year loans that repay peanuts at the end. In other words, a gift. For wars or big natural disasters, well OK, we have to do it. But I really can’t think of any reason why we should offer any gifts to those who are so brazen in their desire to get rich quick or so loose in their political control of funds that such extreme and dire situations occur. Did I mention corruption?
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-20/citic-says-it-will-buy-credit-agricole-s-clsa-for-1-dot-25-billion
Negotiations have taken 2 years: CLSA management concerns about CITIC’s ‘strategy’. Allegedly.
CLSA is probably one of the very few (the only?) respected stock brokerage operation in Asia so CA must be somewhat constrained if it is disposing of this particular ‘goose’.
interesting to see rajoy openly talking of exiting the euro…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9422001/Eurozone-danger-mounts-as-Spain-spins-out-of-control.html
“Confidence has evaporated since Germany effectively blocked plans for the European Union bail-out machinery to recapitalise the Spanish banking system directly, as originally announced after the EU summit deal in June.”…
Yeah, sounds real familiar to Greeks… how’s that knife in the back Spain?
Italy’s not looking much healthier and they have’nt even turned the spotlight on hollande’s new France yet have they. Surely the end of the euro is very close now ?
Every country in the EU has been lying about finances for over 30 years.
And BBC news, an organisation which should be a real source of information about critical events that affect us all, can’t stop jabbering on about the motherf*****g Olympics!
Post solids hitting the fan, will the BBC be burned to the ground by an angry mob who, justifiably, may wonder why they weren’t warned about the financial tsunami that destroyed them? I certainly f*****g hope so!
Is there any indication of what Camerlot or the Red Ed brigade are proposing to minimise effect to UK
@Chris L if there is no money will the Beeb even be able to continue and thus saving the firewood for later in the winter
Didn’t think of it that way. Suddenly i’m cheered at the prospect of the televisual equivalent of Pravda being wiped out within a few days of the crash.
Which incidentally feels like its so close I could reach out and touch it.
Know what you mean,.Its so close now you can taste it.
What is De La Rue printing ?
Heard a rumor they’re running three shifts at the banknote
division.
If Greece leaves the Euro and the sky doesn’t fall in, there’ll be a stampede for the ‘exit’
… and THEN the sky will fall in.
“Berlin is still, I believe, in a race with Athens to leave the euro first.”
Could this be the accelerator? -
“July 23, 2012, 5:08 p.m. EDT
Moody’s lowers outlook on Germany to negative
By Sue Chang
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Moody’s Investors Service on Monday lowered the outlook on Germany’s triple-A rating to negative from stable due to mounting uncertainties from the euro-zone debt crisis. Moody’s also downgraded the outlooks on the Netherlands and Luxembourg and affirmed Finland’s triple-A rating. Moody’s cited the possibility of Greece’s exit from the euro zone and the impact that would have on Spain and Italy. “Even if such an event is avoided, there is an increasing likelihood that greater collective support for other euro area sovereigns, most notably Spain and Italy, will be required,” said the ratings agency. This burden is likely to fall most heavily on better rated members “if the euro area is to be preserved in its current form,” it said. Moody’s rates both Netherlands and Luxembourg at triple-A.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-lowers-outlook-on-germany-to-negative-2012-07-23?link=MW_latest_news
A somewhat interesting comment about it from the PI people:
“Today our media produced 1,084 reports about Greece, but nothing about Germany …”
And from one of their contributors:
“While Rösler for once belched out something reasonable (the exit of Greece), and for this was immediately criticised by the representatives in the People’s Chamber (the truth may not to be told), slowly but surely the kack is flowing towards us, and there won’t be any shovels large enough to clear the mess away.
Incidentally, the German population said 1 year ago (?) that Greece must get out – just think of how much money could have been saved. But no, the EUSSR forced its Bolshevik plan onto the people!
Merkel and Co must be brought to account for betraying the German people. No way have they been averting damage …
But now it’s slowly going to become amusing ….”
No money would have been saved, the over extended banks exposed to Greek debt would have collapsed. The turmoil would have been devastating. Greece was propped up only to allow the major creditors to prepare and minimise impact. It is starting to sound like they believe they are as ready as they can be. Goodbye Greece and maybe a few more besides.
That’s pretty much it…
VJ
I read somewhere that 95% of all derivatives are held in the US.
But I am forgetting! The US has a printing press, and if you print electronically you only need pay the clerk who presses the buttons. I am sure that covering any fallout is a simple matter of printing enough to cover the US bank’s follies.
Quote….
”Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the “bail out” debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected.”
Mike Shedlock
Rupert,
and then what do they do? Live on thin air, or borrow from the Americans?
Americans let their citizens own guns, didn’t you know? Kinda scary guys when you think about it …
Why is it scary for ordinary citizens to be able to protect themselves through bearing armes ? It bothers me not a jot. Limiting it to make it an imprisonable offence (possibly with a daily flogging) to use said weapon in pursuit of a crime (and withdrawing the ‘right’ for the future when freed) and you can be damn sure those who are now armed against the ordinary man in the street would have to think twice before attacking anyone (because even if not armed – the potential attacker will not know this).
God ! I hate it when those who cannot trust themselves want to give away everyone elses freedoms to the very people who will take it away willingly. It is so girly to demand disarming those (your menfolk generally) who would protect you, handing it to a state which won’t, and then crying victimisation in perpetuity when you get what you demanded and no-one comes when the wolf arrives.
I’d also much rather that a people who require to raise themselves in revolution have an equal standing as those who will be used to put them down ! Which is in actuality – why the US right to bear armes is constitutionally in place. It is also why those in ‘power’ are the keenest to see them have this right removed.
@ Gemma
Mr Blanketstein if you please.
I am a complete stranger to you, and am very rich and more importantly VERY MARRIED
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Why did the good folk of greece not give him a resounding majority last election ?. He was clear on his plans and policy. Why did they think staying in the euro would help.? What did they think it would achieve ? Why are spain,greece, ireland, portugal, italy, france and germany so afraid to go back to their own currencies?
Because those elected and tasked with implementing such a decision have been poisoned by the EUs gravy train.
Why would they vote for the end of their space at the trough??
Why wont they go back to their own currencies ? Well. . . becuase they have bought into this ‘building Europe’ bollocks. And with Greece the Drachma has never been a particularly stable currency, certainly not in the last 30 years it hasn’t. So people have seen their savings, their wealth, destroyed. And also Greece has been rather unstable poltically – think of the bloody Civil War after the end of the Second World War: think of the Coup in the 1960s and of course earlier events. Add to this a terrible political class that is corrupt beyond belief and you really do have quite a stew.
Speaking in all honestly as a Greek… because we are more scared of giving the country BACK to the assholes that created this mess in the first place… Greeks want stability… and the idea of a more orderly partner like the EU, having some influence on keeping things fair, clean, and efficient is verrry comforting to folks that have been living on the razors edge for almost 4 years now. Besides… Merkel and Schauble told us to elect pro-EU party’s (the fact that they are the same crooks that destroyed the country is purely incidental).
The claim seems to be that Hellas, the colony has to go back where it belongs.
After all these decades and the end of this ” very poor EU act” Germany will be heart more than any other.
Now imagine that Greece has left the Eurozone. America, that benevolent and charming nation that serially downgrades all its enemies, will lend money to a Greece stricken.
Greece will have no money, and nobody to borrow from, once outside the Eurozone.
Just how much money will the Americans be expecting for lending a little help? I can’t see them “giving” that money away … they will be after something, and it will cost Greece dear.
Whatever their faults, it wasn’t German ratings agencies that downgraded Greece.
Aegean Sea. There’s quite a few bob down there. Plus a few spots for military bases wouldn’t go amiss. What with the Iranians being so nearby.
Chris
I am sure that is why Greece is staying right where it is – inside the Eurozone. The Americans will fight tooth and nail to disorganize it so that they get either Greece or an autocratic central government in Europe, both of which would stand them in good stead.
So far… that they know of, 300 billion in oil over 25 years, and over 9 trillion Euro’s worth of natural gas… not including our Kwh’s, gold mines, tourism, etc. etc.
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Since elections and anti-austerity protests don’t seem to do the trick, why don’t we all stop for a while, buying ”top quality German products” ? That would make for a very loud message. As for the Greeks, we could just stop being their most precious customer when it comes to military equipment.Or is this too extreme? After all, soon no southern European will be able to afford them anyway….
Tassos,
I can imagine the French lining up right now, after all, they too sold weaponry to the Greeks. Without the Germans, the Americans get a free reign too!
It isn’t just the fault of the Germans.
You don’t give up do you Gemz……Germany good everyone else bad !
surely it is up to the Greek people who they want to get into bed with – if its the USA tough luck Germany……
Tell you what – I’m starting to understand why you get trolled. Could you try to cut your input down to about 2 entries per piece. You know give others a few good hours to post their entries then comment on what you have read and giving everyone the benefit of your opinion. Come back just before bed and run it by everyone once again. Your constant ‘bickering’ just makes the blog uncommunicative as so much has to be skipped once you get rattling away.
Or just post….. I love Germany and everyone else sucks !
Once a day……………we’ll get the jist of it :)
See above…
Maybe Finland could beat both Greece and Germany to the exit!
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/finnish-finance-minister-defends-debt-agreements-with-spain-and-greece-a-846096.html
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Eurozone is the small problem. The EU is the big one. Scrap it and we scrap our problems. 1945 all over again.
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