BARACK OBAMA: Two words that could lose him the Election:

North Dakota

Mitt Romney….closing the gap by backing energy release

The staggering oil production growth in North Dakota continues to make it the most successful State in the Union. Per capita income and  tax revenues are hugely up, while foreclosure and unemployment rates are the lowest in America. The “Dakota Model” of job creation and economic prosperity is based on developing America’s vast energy resources, and could easily be replicated in other States if more domestic energy resources were opened up. If Obama is the Green candidate, then Romney is the Energy Self-Sufficiency candidate. In a deep recession, whether you like it or not, the latter has far more electoral pulling power.

Fracking will not single-handedly revive America’s sluggish economy; but  it could, as evidenced by the success in North Dakota, be an important part of the switch away from globalism and towards self-sufficiency. North Dakota is only one of many states that is beginning to reap the economic benefits of fracking and other advances in drilling technology to access previously uneconomic oil deposits.

Obama’s Achilles heel on this one is that he is cautiously supporting the federal government’s intention of taking lots of wild projections and  applying them universally in order to protect gofershaleus vulgaris or whatever . There are signs that the US Environmental Protection Agency is gearing up for a big regulatory drive, which would be sort of OK if (1) the negative evidence was irrefutable, or even convincing (2) oil wasn’t getting increasingly expensive to extract (3) the US didn’t have a massive deficit and (4) the EPA had discovered the technoleap enabling us to move on from oil.

If all this seems to you a little academic, then think again: North Dakota extracted a record amount of oil during the month of May at a rate of almost 640,000 barrels per day,  an increase of 5% over oil production in April. The YOY increase in Dakotan oil production is a staggering 75.5%. North Dakota is now second only to the Ten Gallon State when it comes to pumping out Texas Tea.

This is important stuff in an election year: the US national average unemployment rate is 8.2%, but North Dakota’s is around 3% (in ten counties it’s under 2%) and has trebled its Resources and Mining employment sector in two years.

This is where, in the harsh world of jobless reality, votes for family security will be easier to pick off the tree than vague ideas about saving the planet’s shale. It’s a card that Romney is starting to play aggressively….and two polls over the last two days show him closing the gap.
A new Quinnipiac University poll gives President Obama a narrow lead over Mitt Romney, 46 to 43%.  And this comes on the heels of a Washington Post-ABC News poll that showed the race dead even, with both candidates on 47%.

“Barack Obama doesn’t get energy,” Mitt Romney is suddenly saying. For once here, the Oven Glove is on ground he understands, and where he has some credibility. If his team stick ‘big government interference on growth’ on the President just about the time Bank of America collapses and France teeters on the edge of insolvency, the 2012 race could become a very different animal.

It all depends on how agile the Romney team is in grasping this Heaven-sent gift. And by the way, did you know that an anagram  of Mitt Romney is Monty Merit? I think that’s a much better name for a Presidential candidate. But then, I do have a history of mental illness.

If this interested you, try On the trail of Global Bank Rate rigging

52 thoughts on “BARACK OBAMA: Two words that could lose him the Election:

  1. Mr. Ward:

    Do you wish to comment on the existence of the Bank of North Dakota (BND) as a wealth shepherd and aid to North Dakota’s prosperity? Do you consider BND a model worthy of emulation and replication in the other 49 states? Thank you.

  2. Oil is not and never has been the problem. By the time we can no longer afford to get it, more than half of it will still be in the ground.

    The oil problem is cost – and fracing is a very costly extraction method. It is becoming attractive purely because the cheaper stuff is starting to get scarce. It’s great weakness at the moment is if the global economy goes into a full-scale reversal. Should that happen the price of oil will crash due to the associated collapse in consumption and lo & behold, all the fracing will stop and an awful lot of fracing companies (along with their investors) will collapse on the spot.

    Energy is a cut throat game at the moment with some methods heavily reliant on a sustained global recovery and other methods heavily reliant on the opposite and ultimately only one will survive and the other will see hundreds of billions thrown in the bin.

    • @save … ‘Should that happen the price of oil will crash due to the associated collapse in consumption and lo & behold, all the fracing will stop and an awful lot of fracing companies (along with their investors) will collapse on the spot.”

      Not necessarily, if the fracking companies sell oil futures then they can “lock-in” their future revenues. The current backwardation on the WTI curve is only a few dollars for the next couple of years

    • @DS: ‘the US government, via the mainstream media, is losing their “information war” with the American public. As alternative media becomes more prevalent, the propaganda must be taken up a notch in order to keep the masses onboard with the agendas of the US government.’
      This fits exactly with Catherine Austen Fitts take on things.

    • A self-evident prerequisite for announcing that the Alien Greys are here, they’re parked on the White House lawn, and they mean business.

  3. JW I can’t believe you support fracking and suggest you look into more and maybe see the documentary gas lands. Also google what has happened to towns in delaware/pensalvanyia/newyork because of it. How regulations have been passed where companies doing this do not have disclose for x years what chemicals etc they are using. Yeh that is a really good idea. I am all for jobs but it needs to be in balance with this planet and destroying the water table etc is not the way to go, and then giving corps get out of jail free cards not a great idea either. If fracking were so safe why give so much protection to corps? This industry like the banks is also corrupt and filled with kick backs. Before you start waving the flag I suggest we should look at what is in place to protect the areas it is being done, and those in charge of said protection are not bought and paid for by the industry they are meant to regulate.

    JW you surprise me. Your grasp of the banks and corruption, and then you write something like this, not questioning if it is on the up and up. Fracking if it is done needs to be done under a very different system then we have now. Too much corruption, and yes names like GS, JPM are also deep in the trough here too.

      • You need to grow up. I have friends whose water supply is now contaminated and they have no other source of water. On top of that the whole thing is rife with corruption and kick backs. Oh and if it were such a good thing why are local cities and states passing laws that fracking companies do not have to disclose chemicals etc they are using until 15+ years after they started work on it.

        I bet it was not that long ago when people told you about the fraud and collusion in the monetary system you told them to grow up also. If you say no you knew about the corruption then you would be open to many similar tactics in play with fracking.

      • How about you try to actually refute even a single point instead of rehashing right wing talking points?

    • Pat
      Why don’t you read the piece again, huh? I didn’t say I agree with it, but merely that, in a recession election, it will play well.
      There seem to be a lot of mind-reading comment threaders out there today.

  4. Forget whether fracking actually harms the “environment”. The debate has never been about science, data or evidence. The Left now protests ANY fossil fuel extraction – coal, oil, mining, natural gas, fracking, wells, pipelines or exploration. The fact that we’ve in a transitional period and FFs are needed until renewables become operable means nothing. N Dakota (as has been pointed out) has achieved a near miracle because DC was never seriously involved.

    As for Mitt, I am reluctantly voting for him for one reason – a return of some kind of nomality and certainty. The countless tsars, committees, endless initiatives, avalanche of regulation, temporary fixes, Fed “action” and class rhetoric have driven investers into a permanent wait and see mode.

      • Pat
        Your ‘can’t believe it’, ‘puppets’ and ‘grow up’ syntax give you away, I’m afraid. A transactional analyst would have a field-day with it.

  5. This is what puzzles me: The governments says that we have a problem with oil reserves about to run out. I understand that bit. What I don’t understand, is, if the governments are that worried, why on earth are they not asking the whole country to put their heads together for ways to harness renewable energy from free sources? The solar energy idea is good, but it is as if the research on harnessing the suns rays has had a line drawn underneath it.
    If I were Prime Minister I would make renewable safe energy harnessing a priority. I would insist on it being taught in all schools as part of the National Curriculem. School is a good place to teach stuff that you want to be put in practice, the emphasis put on sex education has shown us all that very clearly!

    • @zoompad: “The governments says that we have a problem with oil reserves about to run out.”

      Dunno what governments say that…it wouldn’t be the US because they understand energy, always have done. Anyway, it’s wrong. Oil reserves are not about to run out. What is running out is *easy oil*. That’s the stuff that’s been cheap to harvest and cheap to refine and has kept the price of oil at decent levels for decades and allowed our economies to grow. Much of what’s left is *heavy oil* which costs more to harvest and more to refine. The consequence of that are rising oil prices and therefore, more expensive economic growth. Eventually even the heavy oil will run out.

      • When it requires more energy to get oil out of the ground than it’s worth, then we have essentially run out.

      • @DB: I’m aware of the EROEI case, but I’m not sure many onlookers do. In the meantime, as the cost of harvesting ‘difficult’ or ‘heavy’ oil rises, so does the end price per barrel.

    • zoompad : 12.52pm

      “What I don’t understand, is, if the governments are that worried, why on earth are they not asking the whole country to put their heads together for ways to harness renewable energy from free sources?”

      Governments aren’t running the environmental razzamatazz, pressure groups of mainly leftist and Big-State persuasion are. The very last thing any of these groups want is for energy to become abundant and cheap, since cheap energy gives billions of people more opportunity than they currently have to make decisions for themselves, and to do more of what they want to do. Society, for these leftists, is not about providing the structures to help people find their own sources of happiness, it’s about telling them what they should be happy about, and preventing them from reaching it in any other way than that which the State provides.

      They’re selling you a dummy, as the statist left-wingers always do, since their real intentions would never achieve greater than a single-figure approval percentage if they were ever to be put to the general public.

      • @SS: Spot on. It has never escaped my notice that virtually everybody involved in anything to do with *green* is a Lefty, demanding more government, more taxes, less travel, less consumption etc etc. A return to the fantasy halycon days. Enter the giant socialist global warming scam…

      • Well you go and live next door to a Fracturing operation then and see what happens to your kids respiratory system. When you can set fire to your tap water and your garden shrivels up and dies get back to us. And if they set off a massive earthquake well, that’s just bizness!

  6. A little OT, but Ireland has some of best wave power potential in the world, untapped and unused. Even attempting to make use of it might be helpful as here we are, poster boy of bailouts, and our economy is continuing to shrink:

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0712/troika-completes-latest-review-of-irish-bailout.html

    Funny how the MSM here said “well done, passed your review from the big boys” but has utterly glossed over the fact that domestic demand has been beaten to death and not even foreign investment & exports are gaming the growth figures anymore. Previous quarter: -1.1%

    And still we are told to stand in a bucket and lift ourselves up by the handle.

  7. Oil production has increased in North Dakota (and Montana as well), from approximately 400kbpd to perhaps 800kbpd. Hardly earth-shattering.

    Other oil production in the US is depleting rapidly. Drilling must occur at an accelerating pace just to keep gross US production flat.

    The cost of each Bakken well is + US$6 million as opposed to US$600 thousand for a conventional vertical well. The production from each new well declines rapidly and averages (less than) 100 barrels per day (the Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico spilled 53,000 barrels per day, as a point of reference). Productivity per Bakken well is very low.

    The high production cost means crude prices much lower than current shuts in the wells as unprofitable. It is low prices rather than the alternative that are destabilizing. The ‘profit gap’ between cost and sales-returns has already started to effect so-called ‘shale gas’ production. Drillers are underwater, wells deplete rapidly and ramping infrastructure costs cannot be met by the sale of the gas.

    The US consumes almost 19 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude petroleum, 2/3ds of this is imported. The bulk of imports are from Canada, Mexico, the West African coast and Saudi Arabia. Domestic production is approximatly 6 mbpd. During the war years, the US- top producer pumped + 10mbpd.

    That the US is anywhere near petroleum self-sufficiency is a flat-out lie by the media and establishment … I think the term is ‘bollocks’ : )

    Much of what pundit claim as ‘production’ are total North America (includes Canada and Mexico) or adds biofuel (ethanol from corn), refinery gains and natural gas liquids (propane, ethane, hexane, etc.) While gas liquids are hydrocarbons, and command a price similar to crude grades, they are not useful transport fuels: these and refinery gains have low btu content. Volume of fuel is higher while energy content continues to drop as it has since 1970s. Biofuel is dependent upon crop production/weather. The current drought/heat wave in the corn-growing area — and the resulting high relative corn price — is likely to put the remaining ethanol refiners out of business. The same thing is taking place in Brazil which has lost sugarcane production due to weather: Brazil is a net fossil fuel importer despite the various ‘pre-salt’ claims.

    As with UK’s gold, the establishment sold Britain’s petroleum patrimony for a pittance to service the banksters who had shorts on the petroleum markets. The outcome is expanding crude oil scarcity in UK and ‘fuel poverty’. Meanwhile, as the UK business establishment continues to lose credibility, the worth of UK currency diminishes, Even though the currency has worth from the standpoint of quantity of money in circulation, it is otherwise good for nothing. At some point — perhaps after the big British banks are bailed out again post-Liborig — the Saudi exporters will refuse to accept sterling and demand dollars instead.

    It is certain that the producers will refuse euros, it is a matter of time. Trends on the ground would indicate that producers in the future will only accept gold as payment for crude oil At that you can banish the though of obtaining valuable crude to simply waste it by driving pointlessly in circles.

    Did I mention, Gordon Brown sold off UK’s gold?

    The trend is expanding fuel poverty across the world, which is at war with the US for the possession of the world’s last petroleum resources. Europe is in the process of becoming car-free. Fuel consumption in Europe is 15 mbpd: if that is cut by the bankruptcy of the eurozone then 10 mbpd of that demand can be exported to the US: it is not the Bakken why gas prices are ‘down’ in Philadelphia but a credit embargo on Spain, France … Germany.

    The UK is bankrupted simply by way of Wall Street cutting off loans: somewhere on the chopping block is the UK, next China, next … what credit cannot accomplish on its own can be had with drones and handful of commandos.

    Welcome to the new World Mr Ward. You might not like it but it is coming to your town and to all your friends’ towns as well … to ram a great big red-white-and-blue dick up your ass.

      • This is what “they” want you to believe. It’s not true. Possibly the US is a net exporter of gasoline products i.e. the refined stuff, but no way is it a net exporter of oil. Check out TheOilDrum.com if you wish to educate yourself on oil and associated matters.

    • @SFV “The trend is expanding fuel poverty across the world, which is at war with the US for the possession of the world’s last petroleum resources. Europe is in the process of becoming car-free”.

      Fair enough. So why is Murkel interested in this:

  8. Obama and team need to go because they are (deliberately? maliciously?) clueless about business and how to get the economy back on track. Any economic improvements have been local (ND, Texas) and in spite of, not because of, this idiotic, meddling Federal government. Romney founded Bain Capital, one of the world’s leading consultancies – how is that a bad thing? What did Obama do that was remotely comparable? Revitalize Chicago’s South Side? HA HA HA!!!
    As for North Dakota, I have buddies up there driving trucks or working on the rigs themselves, pulling $13,000 per month…McDonalds in Williston is paying employees $18 per hour…it’s a 21st century gold rush, all right!

    • The American people who voted for the Obamarama Road Show were taken in by his “yes we can” blather and didn’t spot that he’s a corrupt socialist peddling ever bigger government and all the other nasty things that entails.

      • Then why are all the ultra-big spender ultra-lefty countries in Northern Europe tax and spending their way to prosperity?

      • @DB: Are they? I must have missed that…..last I heard is that Northern Europe’s state finances are in a shambles.

  9. Mitt Romney:
    a gun-grabbing, statist-judge-appointing,
    big spending, state-health care guy,
    looking to replace
    a gun-grabbing, statist-judge-appointing,
    big spending, state-health care guy.

  10. in light of valid concerns over side-effects such as earthquakes and irreversible toxification of the entire water-table, obama may justifiably be against fracking in his his own backyard, but i’m sure he’s none too bothered about the former president of british petroleum fracking in blackpool, nor has he ever had much to say about the environmental disaster caused by shell plc in delta state, nigeria, and he’s certainly not been forthcoming about shell’s root-and-branch corruption of the nigerian government itself – although, to be fair, it’s possible that his uncanny silence may simply be an incurable symptom of political pollution in his campaign fund…

    america needs badly to get back in the black, so it’s unlikely voters will be entrusting this job to the first green chamaeleon to enter the white house – no, they want a man who knows how to get hold of the gold, and, being americans, they don’t care how he does it…

    …and nor, so it seems, does the national association for the advancement of colored people care how many africans, arabs, and asians president obama will continue to assassinate and bomb (in somalia, afghanistan, libya and pakistan) in order to finance his healthcare scheme…

    …or am i wrong here…because let’s see…it’s being reported that the black man, who has had to be twice as evil as his white counterparts in order to get along, has, unlike mr romney, been inexplicably forced to avoid addressing the naacp due to an irresolvable “scheduling conflict”…

    …however, i cannot help but wonder whether the “conflict” was, rather, one of a more ideological nature which was in imminent danger of manifesting itself amongst a section of the naacp’s more conscious members…

    …but then what would a paranoid schizophrenic like me know about such things…

    • oh dear…this is all getting so complicated…wouldn’t it be just so much easier if white people voted for white politicians, black people voted for black politicians, and inbetweenies voted for inbetweeny politicians?

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