BRITAIN’S EU MEMBERSHIP: Cameron faces new EU Treaties and a referendum whether he likes it or not

How clever-clever Cameron politics have landed Dave in it yet again

Interrogation of the latest EU summit reveals a Coalition Europe policy facing total collapse: the Prime Minister’s veto had no effect whatsoever, the City wants to be part of the banking union now, and Britain’s rejection of further integration inevitably means Treaty renegotiation and at least one referendum by 2015. But whether full Union ever materialises remains severely in doubt, with tensions rising to fever pitch between Berlin and Athens, and Italo-Spanish bond yields rising inexorably.

The distraction of Diamonds (and the Tories working 24/7 to disguise how the Libor Party is virtually a division of Central Office) has kept media and public attention away from Europe’s continuing slide into chaos for a week or so now. But the biggest thing coming to light is just how comprehensively David Cameron has misjudged the situation there – and shown himself to be comletely devoid of any power or influence.

There is clearly not going to be any repeat of the alleged veto last December,  in which the UK was allowed to ‘stop’ deeper integration. Nobody among the eurozoners now regrets the showdown last December. Cameron, obviously unable to hide much longer just how much his bluff had been called, told the media: ‘We won’t be part of a banking union, fiscal union or political union’.

Effectively this leaves Britain with all the fiscal responsibilities of EU membership, but none of the power – and thus none of the rapidly dwindling advantages. In order to avoid being dragged along to yet more bailout parties, the clear priority now must be to leave the EU as quickly as possible. But he shows no signs of doing so.

Ironically, says one Liberal MEP, “Just as the UK government rejects the European banking union, the high priests of Anglo-Saxon capitalism in the City of London (itself a victim of light regulation) would prefer to participate in such a centralised banking union at least in so far as their extensive euro dominated operations are concerned.” He’s right, actually: so Cameron has wound up pleasing nobody.

But the drift away from the centre of Europe by the UK has in turn dealt the Prime Minister’s ‘no eurozone, no referendum’ policy a mortal blow: for with equal irony, this newly widened divide between the UK and its EU partners will require revisions to various EU treaties. Therefore, institutions, governments and political parties will be heading for a new constitutional Convention in spring 2015: from which, it now seems certain, ‘multiple referendums’ will result….just as the Coalition faces a UK General Election.

Effecively then, David Cameron’s wriggle room on a UK referendum has been reduced to 0%….by the very people the pro-referendum anti-EU folks like me want to get away from. Rather than waiting for any more inevitable outcomes to stop being imponderables, we should be exiting the Union with all speed. For once, Nigel Farage has put this case rather well in a Telegraph piece today, but as so often with Niggly Farrago, his grasp of the detail is weak. Rather than hoisting the PM on a sword of inevitability, he chooses to speculate needlessly, by concluding that ‘A referendum promise in the next Tory election manifesto on any “new package” would leave us exactly where we are now’. On the contrary, our membership rights will be diluted out of all recognition by then. That, above any other, is the key reason why we should declare our secession now, and back it up with a referendum.

In the same way that the Camerlot inner circle have consistently overestimated the benefits of EU membership and underestimated the advantages of leaving, so too have those same dullards completely failed to see down the road on the issue of eurozone implosion via over-borrowing, wealth discrepancies, and Germany’s obsessive intransigence. But it continues, and no amount of local distraction can take away the certainty of Gotterdammerung.

Germany has halted a plan to send as many as 165 tax officials to Greece to bolster tax collection, Bild reports today, citing unidentified people in the Finance Ministry and government. Greek officials apparently turned very nasty indeed on the idea of answering to hordes of  meddlesome Teutonic Knights, while the head of this delegation had already expressed concerns for the safety of the 150+ gang-bang formerly destined for Athens. A flashpoint of equally unpleasant potential awaits the Troikanauts, who arrive in Athens this weekend to inform the new Coalition of Pasok and New Democracy that there will be absolutely no backsliding on the rape and pillage of ordinary Greece. Sources in the capital tell me that the security accompanying their visit will be “unprecedented”. It’d be quite nice if it was unsuccessful too.

The Troika star firmament will be led by Christine Lagarde, absentee author of France’s €75bn deficit in 2011, and still on the fence between rigid austerity and laid-back growth. Mme Lafarge la tricoteuse de verité spoke yesterday in her IMF capacity about the ‘disturbing’ nature of the global economy, having earlier last year spoken about the “exaggeration of French banking and fiscal problems” in her capacity as French Minister for the Economy. That this truly daft woman continues to be taken seriously beggars belief, but the Greeks have not forgotten her comments of a month ago about how spendthrift and lazy they are. If Chrissie has any sense, she will arrive in a reinforced tank  and avoid all public appearances.

But elsewhere, reality contiues to poke its malodorous bottom through every hole it can find in the Brussels defence. The interest rates for Spain and Italy’s benchmark 10-year bonds have been rising sharply again this morning, yields for the Spanish bond standing at a crazy 6.9%, and Italy’s up 13 basis points to 6.01% just a few minutes ago (11.40 am GMT Friday).

What the  recent EU summit also gave Mario Draghi was a great deal more power. But only the power of concentrated Kryptonite can save ClubMed from a meltdown…with France the next candidate for well-deserved doubts.

Like the rest of Camerlot foreign policy, its EU strategy is thus a sort of tragifarce, a hilariously sad melange of Shakespearian hubris and Feydeau slapstick. Dave threatens to leave or else, and gets a boot up his backside…only to discover that the booter is vapourising before his eyes.

A principled man of substance would’ve announced his intention to secede last year, when the Madness of Queen Merkel became glaringly apparent. Instead, the empty suit inside 10 Downing Street upped the stakes with only 9-high in his sweaty little hand. What a silly little boy he is.

48 thoughts on “BRITAIN’S EU MEMBERSHIP: Cameron faces new EU Treaties and a referendum whether he likes it or not

    • It is his own hand. The two faced toffee nosed peasant hating arrogant twit obviously has psychosis problems, leaving his own child in a pub whilst condemning other parents to lose their children via secret court forced adoptions is an indication of how messed up his brain is.

      • @BR: I expect you’re right, another example of Strangelove Syndrome is most likely. It would be nice if he could follow through for once.

      • To be fair the vile secret unjust courts were a Labour invention of staggering cruelty, of course DC should get rid of them and this coalition is guilty by default if not by direct action.

      • Oh, Bunter truly is dedicated to his Muffins and Pasties….

        However, being as messed up as he is, there are many woes to be settled in the near future although there is little likelihood that he will grow sufficiently to be able to surmount these coming issues.

        Ooh, it’s a big mess coming, a really big mess.

  1. It is inevitable that any referendum will be nobbled.

    The question itself will be either
    1)wishy-washy vague
    or 2) precise regarding an irrelevance.

    Then there is the issue of quorum, as was used to derail the first Scottish devolution referendum. Require perhaps 60% turnout and the exercise becomes pointless as the majority are clueless.

  2. neurotic : an involuntary muscle movement brought on by too much credit in a debased medium of exchange. Other definitions still apply.

  3. Hague has already used his “referendum lock” law twice, and on both occasions to block referendums: the first use was on October 13th 2011 to block a referendum on the radical EU treaty change agreed by EU leaders on March 25th 2011, and the second use was on February 2nd 2011 to block a referendum on the treaty of accession for Croatia to join the EU signed in December.

    It has to be understood that Hague has deliberately written that law so that it can be used as a “referendum block”, in the case of the EU treaty change agreed on March 25th 2011 because on paper it does not “apply” to the UK.

    This was made clear in the Explanatory Notes for the Act:

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmbills/106/en/2011106en.htm

    “57. Subsection (4)(b) provides that a referendum is not required where a treaty or an Article 48(6) decision makes provision that applies only to Member States other than the UK. A treaty or an Article 48(6) decision does not apply to the UK merely because it may have consequences for individuals or organisations within the UK, such as UK businesses. Nor does it apply to the UK merely because the amendment imposes new responsibilities on EU institutions in which the UK participates and which the UK helps to fund.”

    So keep all the EU treaty changes in this general form:

    “The eurozone states may do X”

    where X is something they can’t do under the present EU treaties, and on paper none of them “apply” to the UK, and under the Section 4(4)(b) loophole the government avoids holding a referendum.

  4. ” .. elsewhere, reality contiues to poke its malodorous bottom through every hole it can find in the Brussels defence .. ”

    Haha! Nicely put JW. Awesome report too, 10 out of 10 for perception and insight which might explain the 3 mill hits

  5. Interrogation of the latest EU summit reveals a Coalition Europe policy facing total collapse: the Prime Minister’s veto had no effect whatsoever, the City wants to be part of the banking union now,

    The last bit says it all, ” The City wants to be part of the banking union now,”
    The City as outgrown the UK, now wants to take over Euroland, so forget having a referendum. We will all be happy contented citizens of The Corporate Republic of Europe and then the World.

    Keep up the good work John

  6. Reported in the telegraph this morning…”The Finnish finance minister, Jutta Urpilainen, said in a newspaper interview this morning that she’d consider crashing her AAA-rated country out of the eurozone rather than face paying the debts of another country”.

    Is this the first time it has been reported that any eurozone country is willing to consider seriously leaving? Has the taboo finally been broken?

  7. I think that the basic problem here is a complete failure to communicate. Cameron and all the other pro-EU politicians clearly think that there is a huge advantage to the UK being part of the EU, but cannot or will not communicate what this advantage is (it may of course be a delusion). Similarly the renegotiation camp fail to communicate how this renegotiation might be accomplished, especially in the light of the EU’s previous history regarding nations disagreeing with it (keep on asking the question until the correct response is received).

    The only sane measure that can be taken is to repeal the European Communities Act, and secede entirely from the EU and go back to being a sovereign nation. Next, we suspend the treaties with the European Courts, and leave our own High Court as the court of last resort. This will restore our legal status as a sovereign nation and prevent all this pesky foreign meddling in our affairs (necessary, since another immediate effect will be that we can deport most of the economic migrants and assorted scum who turned up from Eastern Europe).

    Finally, a limitation on how secondary legislation operated desperately needs to be enacted; something like a six-month sunset clause before each secondary legislative item needs to be approved by a free vote of Parliament. Such a change will drastically reduce the amount of law Parliament introduces, which ought to make everyone’s lives a lot less complicated; it will also drastically complicate a future re-joining of the EU.

  8. It is basically a technical legal issue (in the way that a proper lawyer has to put it in the treaty or other legislation). As I see it it could be shuffled as well in one of the existing provisions (one relating to the common market) so that British cies came go on competing with cies/banks in the rest of the EU. This would not require a transfer of powers and subsequently no treaty change. I doubt if any transfer of power is done for any other reason than having access to a ceratin market. For the other topics I would think that UK banks rather see no transfer of power. It would make the City less flexible (and substantially).
    Furthermore banks have to realise that if a refeendum is necessary it likely/possibly kills of the EU membership of the UK. Which would make competing very very difficult.

    • Certainly the FT has been pointing out that the city has no desire to be hog-tied by EU law for some time, and furthermore considers that the hog-tieing of EU financial centers will act in its favour. This also seems to be the opinion of bloggers that work in the city, such as “Capitalists at Work”. Do you have any links JW to the information that led you to the conclusion that the city wants to be part of the EU banking union?

  9. The education system has been dumbed down, but that could easily be reversed, with a will. The BBC staff responsible for pumping out wall to wall propaganda and rubbish could be given the Order of the Golden Boot (just get a pot of gold paint and a hobnail boot and ask them to bend over at the doorway for the ceremony, I am sure plenty of volunteers would be happy to perform this ceremonial duty free of charge) and real educational programmes broadcast instead. We could easily train up professionals in every field, maths, science, whatever, very cheaply and easily, using cheap technology and the college buildings we already have. Homes for everyone, we could get young people apprenticed to build proper homes, environmentally friendly cob houses for example, that would blend into the environment, and there are plenty of empty buildings that could be converted for people who love city life. Put all the conviicted paedophiles plus all the paedophile protecting fake charity con artists and judges on two remote islands, one for women and the other for men, give them a few tools and seeds and let them get on with it, safely away from all our children.

  10. Cameron is not really up to the job, is he. He’s in over his head in this EU mire. The UK needs a strong, wise leader. What has it got? Roughly the opposite. These times are too testing for Call Me Dave.

    • Sarah

      On the contrary; DC is doing an excellent fist of doing the job he was inserted into the Conservative Party to do. His mandate was to destroy the UK as a functioning State and to further the ‘ever closer union’ project. I would say that he is in the process of doing a perfect job.

      M.

  11. ‘and shown himself to be completely devoid of any power or influence.’

    No JW, not so. Pipers and tunes. The problem is that he is so thick that he doesn’t realise that a careful and selective threat merely to slow down our large contributions would soon connect him to the levers of power. We have never learned to use this rather obvious weapon. It would be very effective if wielded with skill. Perhaps we are too nice to Brussels?

    • Carys

      Why are assuming that he is thick? His mandate is to do the opposite of what you are suggesting he should do, and he is making a brilliant job of it.

      M.

  12. ‘We give the impression of being in office,but not in power’.Norman Lamont 1993.Remind me who was his bag carrier?

  13. A principled man of substance..

    I have just spoken to an old friend, a world renowned zoologist, FRS, Natural History Museum trustee etc. and acknowledged leading authority on endangered species. Apparently, in public life, this species is now officially regarded as extinct and with no known breeding stock available is being seen as another evolutionary dead end. Plans to reintroduce one or two breeding pairs from the limited remaining domestic stock have had to be abandoned due to the hostile environment and, therefore, the unlikely success of such a programme. We are left with men who are substantially unprincipled or men of principle without substance.

  14. John, I hate to say this (and I hate to keep on saying this)…this country will NOT be given the opportunity of a referendum on membership of Europe.
    I really don’t know why sloggers still believe that it will be offered. The only “radical realism” that needs applying here is to distinguish between what WILL happen….as opposed to wishful thinking about what SHOULD happen.
    Kennyboy

    • @kennyboy: Here’s a conspiracy theory to catch your eye…..
      It’s entirely possible that JW knows full well you’re right and only bangs on about it to smear Cameron & Co because he’s been foolish enough to mention the possibility, which JW knows they can’t deliver on – or would create civil war within the Tory Party if they tried, thereby leaving the field clear for Red Ed Milipede to win the next election and do a deal with the LibDems. The long game…imagine that.

      • True. But most folk are assuming there will be an EU to hold a referendum about. There is the possibility that the whole Fascist idiotic idea might just collapse like the proverbial house of cards. If it does I only hope we don’t end up with a War.

      • @Andy: I hope you’re right about the EU collapsing. As to war…dunno… but nasty border checks are increasing between member states with reports of cars being emptied by the jackboots looking for ‘something’.

  15. Silly he may be and a great comedian to boot JW but as you stated before he did get a 1st at Oxford!! Which of course begs the question, ‘How silly do you have to be these days to get a 1st at Oxford (or Cambridge for that matter)?’

  16. I don’t want the UK to be in the EU and I don’t want a referendum. Not now anyway. We might end up with a “Yes to EU” vote. Give it three years and the EU will be entirely screwed. That will be the time to have a referendum, when we are sure we will get a “No to EU” vote. I anticipate the government will be falling over itself to give us a referendum when that point is reached.

    • @just sayin’. Agree 100%. Given the intransigence of the politicos over this the only way out will be to step over the rubble after it’s all collapsed.

      Where are the type of journalists who busted Watergate when you need them? We need someone to blow the gaff on just why every politician in power is so desperate to stay in the EU when it’s plainly untenable. Don’t tell me it’s a job in Brussels later on; that won’t wash as they could more easily get a seat on a board that wants to use their name. Someone somewhere has them by the short hairs. Who?

      • Interesting point, but you have to wonder why these people choose to be politicians. Sure they could join a multi-national and make lots of money, but is that the motivation? Look at the “Vicar” Bliar having made more money than he could ever need he’s trying to weasel his way back into the political spectrum.

      • These journalists were neutered. Governments long ago threatened the media that they would be held responsible if dissent of the system gained any momentum. (fanning the tiny embers and all that) Far from the media standing its ground and insisting that all they are supposed to do is report exactly what is going on, they buckled under the threat.
        …….. and it was long before the BBC Gilligan/David Kelly (which from memory, was one bulletin at 6:00am that no-one heard).
        BBC in particular is scared to report anything now, they wait to see who else has reported, before they stick their neck above the parapet.

      • I think the weasel Blair is now feeling slightly uncomfortable that his relentless greed is showing a bit too obviously, and he would like to distance himself from his banker friends.
        (Y’know, put something back)

  17. Nobody knows – including the slog – what the full effects of Britain quitting the EU would be and it’s very easy to underestimate the effort required to negotiate country x country mutual trade deals if we pulled out. Especially with much of the remaining EU suffering serious anger at Britain. I am sure that issue alone is big enough to give Cameron serious pause for thought. You are asking him to jump, but if he did and got it wrong, you’d be among the first to attack him.

    And let’s recall what the Labour Party policy is towards the EU. Didn’t the spineless and cowardly Gordon Brown sign the Lisbon Treaty privately behind closed doors with no cameras allowed because he didn’t have the guts to be seen signing up to an EU Constitution that not one single person in Britain or Europe had ever voted for? Some balanced reporting might be a change… :-)

    • @BT
      No disrespect BT but you asking for ‘balance’ in Left versus Right issues is a bit rich. You are obsessive about the Left and their responsibility for every and all the ills of the world.

      If I have read JW correctly (admittedly I might have it wrong) he is as contemptuous of Blair and Brown as the next man. But they aren’t now in power and the pratt who is, Cameron, is heading up to be every bit as bad, just different.

      That being so, I don’t see the issue of balance being a problem.

      I dislike the Left myself, but that is the problem, Cameron is closer to them than he is to being a Conservative. Basically he is worse for the fact that he isn’t even honest about where he is on the scale. If you disagree, ignore what he has said and tell me in what way he has done anything substantive which could be classed as Conservative. (I admit it, I might have missed it.)

      I’d do one of those smiley face thingy’s about now BT except you know I don’t do them.

      • In David Cameron we seemed to have swapped Gordon Brown for a smarmy Etonian version of Tony Blair only with more added arrogance and conceit. A truly ghastly political animal this one is turning out to be.

      • @Jwoo: Yes you’re sort of right …but it’s with plenty of good reasons as I have set out many times over a very long period in many places. There is no doubt that the Left is driven by mad ideological agendas and a lust for power and control to achieve them. Economic and societal manipulation and corruption are their MO to create a society of their choosing. The Left destroys everything in its path and leaves a trail of wreckage behind itself, then blames others. Recall the Labour govts of the 60s/70s and Healey. Fast forward to the New Labour govts of Blair & Brown and consider where we are today. Further afield, look at any other country that has been ruled by the Left and see the shambles they’ve made of it, often slaughtering millions in the process…
        Whatever the political elites may call themselves and whatever labels their political parties may have, it is true that many of them on the so-called Right of Centre are in practice Lefties. Murky is one good example, so is Rajoy in Spain. It has long been said that when socialism fails, socialists always call for more socialism, not less. When Murky called for more Europe, not less Europe to solve the EU crises she was in effect confirming her true socialist credentials. Not really surprising given her history. The EU is a giant socialist construct that is in a massive shambles due to Left ideological agendas over sanity. Imagine that!

        Let me clear…I am as angry with Cameron as many other people for failing to get to grips with the multiple crises facing Britain etc. I put his inactions down to him not being a reformer, limited by being in a coalition govt, inexperience in government and a desire not to open the biggest can of worms imaginable (ie the British system of govt) and its progressive systemic failure.

        I agree that Blair/Brown are not now in govt, but John has been running a relentless hate campaign against Cameron and the Tories for some months now and I am not the only one to have noticed. He often appears to manipulate and cherrypick issues for the very purpose of blaming them for things they had no involvement in (eg Libor rigging). This is easily verifiable from his posts. His criticisms of Milipede & Co are rare and limited to passing slaps, little more. Yet Milipede is a man without shame who wallows in hypocrisy. The obvious outcome of a failed Tory coalition will be a new govt led by Milipede (with Harman and Unions yanking his strings). If that happens, Britain will not be worth living in and anybody with savings or wealth will quit the country.

      • @Mark: I understand your point but I’d simply describe him as “an Etonian version of Blair”. This doesn’t surprise me as I’m told he privately admires Blair.

    • @bankrupt. France in particular would use our exit as their excuse for poor performance (c.f. recent history). Other than that, I think our exit would be the green light for other disaffected countries to go too, once they saw that the sun comes up every despite warnings of apocalypse.
      Serious anger from Germany for a while though. Then it would be business as usual because no-one left in the EU could afford to buy their BMWs, VWs etc

      • @MaxC: You may well be right. But the truth is we don’t know and the possibility that Germany, France and others might attempt to destroy or damage the British economy in all sorts of ways (eg: introducing curious new domestic regulations for goods which had the effect of killing our exports to them or finding ways of preventing The City continuing as Europe’s No.1 financial centre) must exist. This must weigh heavily on the shoulders of government.

      • MaxC, Yes I agree with you on this. Personally I think the whole EU is rotten to the core and will as like as not collapse. The question is will it collapse peacefully or end in War. There could also be revolutions or even a coup or two and that might just begin the reaction. Just remember the Soviet Union was all powerful but fell to pieces in days. The EU will go the same way. Good riddance to bad rubbish say I.

      • What is our net position re trade with France and German? I suspect we import more than we export. If my suspicion is correct it would take a brave or foolish politician to screw their own industry for a petty revenge. As the crisis in the eurozone intensifies our trade becomes ever more important to France and Germany. I can’t see many more Mercedes being sold to Greece and Portuguese taxi drivers, at least not for a long time.

        Anyway it’s a big world out there and if we produce quality goods and services at a value for money price (not necessarily the cheapest) there is no reason we would not flourish. It is time to think of the real long game, where we want to be and how we get there. I just have this feeling of foreboding that our politicians are ruled by fear and controlled by vested interests.

    • BT

      “Let me clear…I am as angry with Cameron as many other people for failing to get to grips with the multiple crises facing Britain etc. I put his inactions down to him not being a reformer, limited by being in a coalition govt, inexperience in government and a desire not to open the biggest can of worms imaginable (ie the British system of govt) and its progressive systemic failure.”

      Excuse the rather long extract from you subsequent post, but you are looking at Cameron from the wrong end of the telescope. He is doing what he was put in place to do and nothing more. He, somehow, has got to keep the Dave/Nick show on the road until the 1st November 2014. The plain truth is that under the current Government, and any likely replacement as there will be no GE until 2015, there is a considerable majority that are in favour of everything EU. To expect any sort of political Damascene conversion at the Palace of Westminster, is futile – it just isn’t going to happen.

      M.

      • @Morvan: Actually I agree with most of that. On the Slog, we get a one-sided view of the EU that is not representative of the population at large. Most peole do not know what’s happening in the EU except for the heavily filtered news served up by the BBC et al. Cameron was elected Leader to heal the EU rift in his own Party, not to take an anti-EU stance. He will go with drift on this one.

  18. Politicians can almost never imagine the future. The ones in power, who of course are tied to whoever put them there, are never free thinkers.
    No-one in the Cabinet has the bottle to push for an exit, they would far rather play soundbites, tinkering and a blame game.
    The general public, I suspect, want to be in a European free-trade area, and that’s all. Most of us are not afraid of an uncertain future, we would be happy to work our way out of any crisis if we could trust that our our destiny was under our own control.
    The alternative of a fiscal and legislative coup by the nameless and faceless in Brussels is too ridiculous to contemplate, but stranger things have happened when people are distracted.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s