181 thoughts on “At the End of the Spring

      • He’s took it with him.He may have a boating accident with it!

        ===-=-==–==-(____)-==
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  1. If you are coming over to France then bring some wollies and waterproofs. At the moment it’s raining and is cold here in central western France.

  2. We’ve all got plenty left to keep commenting on….I’m sure we’ll miss you but will survive till you’re back. Have a good trip !

  3. Afternoon tea with Mrs Merkel? Do give her my regards. Or if you are passing near Brussels call in and give Herman a smack around the head. It might knock some sense into him. Safe journey. Armageddon can’t possibly happen without you.

  4. Just watched the BBC news….they reported all markets closed up on the Spanish bank bailout, (only the DAX was up a measly 10 points),…..they must know John is on the move and can’t get a rebuttal in!

  5. Lol hav fun.

    How long you can leave really depends on how fast the pretend money runs out! Do like they do, put it on expenses though “big expenses” and nobody will notice.

      • @Romford Dave
        Are you really that naive ,or are you hoping it cannot be
        true ?
        Take those blinkers off.
        This has been SOP since the Bible..
        Realpolitik 101

      • So you expect me to believe in the Bible as well along with the invisible guy who lives above the sky I suppose?

        Here’s another take on any given story, except these guys have the forsight to tell you it’s a spoof in case you’re foolish enough to believe its true.

        http://newsthump.com/

        You can make anything out of anything if you’ve half a mind and that’s generally the problem, people with half their minds missing, making half truths the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

        The only thing more offensive than a believer who can’t see the lies in his version of the truth is those who believe him, zealots have always been the curse of rational thinking people.

      • @RD Are you on drugs or are you working for some government disinfo agency? You are talking shite.

  6. ….and whilst we are running riot while the Boss is away ……try this for size ….WHAT IT’S ALL ABOUT…..

    Carrol Quigley – The Bankers’ Plan

    “The Power of financial capitalism had [a] far reaching plan, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole.

    This system was to be controlled in a feudalistic fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences.

    The apex of the system was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world’s central banks, which were themselves private corporations.

    Each central bank sought to dominate its government by its ability to control treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence co-operative politicians by subsequent rewards in the business world.”

    Carrol Quigley, Tragedy and Hope, 1966 – [Bill Clinton's mentor and Georgetown University professor]

      • “They’re pointing out the enemy to keep you deaf and blind
        They wanna sap your energy incarcerate your mind
        They give you Rule Britannia, gassy beer, page three
        Two weeks in España and Sunday striptease”

    • @kb: Got it now.
      Look, when the curtain comes down and our democratic (ha-ha) political elites remove their masks to reveal that they’re all totalitarian nasties with a secret agenda to turn us all into economic tax slaves, you will be on their list of troublemakers requiring removal. Expect to be framed for some awful crime, punishable by x years in the slammer. You need to think about that and take measures to safeguard your position. You won’t be able to trust the police because since Blair, the police are now the State’s enforcers and it matters not to them what is right or wrong, legal or illegal, only that they follow orders and are well rewarded. The civil service exists to create the rules & regulations necessary to put this new totalitarianism into effect.

  7. Happy travels!
    And talking about Spain, Greek and all Europe, I think the EU Commission are such incredible liars, I don’t know who can believe a word they say anymore… they are only interested in saving corrupt Spanish and Greek Bankers and their criminal Politicians, not the poor European citizens they are supposed to serve!
    If Germany was smart, and they well be, they would leave the Euro pact and go back to the Mark. On the other hand being Germany in the euro helped become more productive relative to its southern neighbors
    So perhaps the only way out is to print money, (like the Americans have done) and care a bit less about those rigid Maastricht parameters that no one seems to be able to respect.

  8. And while Johns away and we are bored here’s a really wild one putting forward a case to be out of London during the 2012 Olympic games!!!!

    • David,

      “why do the mascots only have one eye?” – i thought that was a subtle tribute to our former PM…..

      PS I will keep an eye open for anything suspicious!

      • i thought that was a subtle tribute to our former PM…..

        Who, Gordon Dunnit Brown-stuff – I’m convinced he’s from another planet but not yet tuned in ;-)

    • If our overlords are announcing the nuking of the Olympics via Spooks, the banality of evil just reached a whole new level ;-)

  9. @Romford Dave
    Nice attempt at deflection.Are you a politician ?
    No I do not believe in the Bible,but if you think there are not
    already mercenaries on the ground in Syria,being rum by bit
    British MI and the CIA,I’ve got a beach side property in Dakota to sell
    you.i
    I KNOW a great deal about de stabilising Govts.They were
    supposedly our allies at the time I saw it firsthand.
    No its not conspiracy theory,its conspiracy fact.
    Get out of Romford much ?

    • @WS I agree with you.
      My thoughts about the previous comments made by Romford Dave make me wonder who he is and what is his agenda?

    • You brought the Bible into it Winston, not me and whilst you may know a great deal about destabilising Governments, the simple act of replying to a post in the appropriate place seems beyond you. Maybe that explains why so many f*ck ups occur in these covert operations we read about.

      I’m perfectly aware that death and carnage carried out by the covert actions of every debt soaked country in the world where there is a hint of self serving to be done is only outnumbered by the murder and mayhem carried out by parts of the indigenous population. What I objected to in Mr Stoddart’s weblink was that all it offered was a one sided propagandist view on a par with any other one sided propagandist’s view whether opposing or otherwise, which being that it was posted on a site that headlines with bollocks deconstruction justifies the view that it is bilge, probably the result of viewing so much of that shite spouted from ALL sides.

      Obviously I never realised I was dealing with a counter-intelligence expert like yourself but let me congratulate you on your success at it, for despite not knowing anything about the extent of my worldly travels you managed to form an opinion of it. Another f*ck up on your part, but in keeping with being counter intelligent I suppose.

      Don’t waste your breathe telling me what I should think.

  10. The Empire of “The Cities” ……The Corporation of London, The Corporation of Washington DC and The Vatican.

  11. Come back John! It’s getting way too conspiratorial in here. I have met some of these Masters of the Universe and if they have a plan they are very good at hiding it. I have come to believe that the plan is, that there is no plan. If you believe there is a grand conspiracy then that of course is your right but if that is what this blog is all about then I’m in the wrong spot.

    • Bill, the earth is flat and the Sun goes round the earth. There is a conspiracy that says this is wrong. Don’t believe it.

      • David I’m not going to waste time with you but you might like to learn about the seniority system and how it works in the airline business. I was on the list with the guys who’s airplane flew into the WTC didn’t know them but I did fly out of the same base for the same company in a different aircraft. I cannot begin to tell you about the loss felt at that base. So if you want to believe your silly theory’s go ahead but I have only contempt for those like you that spread this garbage.

      • “There is no evidence to indicate that the FAA recognized Flight 77 as a hijacking until it crashed into the Pentagon.”
        ― The National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States

    • Bill – you are not alone.

      There may be something in some of this conspiracy stuff, but my experience of people generally – particularly the ‘elite’ – tells me that they couldn’t find their arse using both hands … even whilst referring constantly to a manual entitled, “How To Find Your Arse Using Both Hands”. They really are as thick as the proverbial .. but they are rich, I’ll allow them that :-)

      John tends to give the conspiracists rather short shrift too, so hang in there ’til he gets back.

      • Caratacus here’s that conspiracist JFK trying to give you a warning…..but what does he know? Enough to get him killed! There are none so blind as those who will not see!

      • David

        “There are none so positive as those who are but half right..” :-)

        Didn’t say there aren’t a lot of crazies around – just said they’re not as clever as they think they are .. or people fear they might be.

  12. It’s not so much a master plan, rather many,many plans going off in many,many different directions, somewhat resembling a Jackson Pollock!

    • Tend to agree with that. There seem to be various groups (state, corporate, religious, ….) each one protecting and/or promoting their interests. Forming alliances when they have common interests – fighting each other when interests are in conflict. Some of them more powerful than others.

  13. @Romford Dave
    Why only believe MSM?
    There is three sides to every augument,
    Yours, Theirs and somewhere in between, which just might be the truth?

    http://syria360.wordpress.com/2012/06/11/russian-warning-shots-as-syrian-conflict-threatens-to-degenerate-into-world-war/

    Yes it comes from Syrian Government, but then again look how things have panned out in Libya, one can only condem Ghadafi, you cannot state that He brought a vast improvement to the lives of the majority of libyans.
    He improved the Health and well being from what it was prior to 1970.
    He improved the Education system and training oppurtunities.
    The Road and infrastructure vastly improved.
    All this done without resorting to debt. BUT
    But if you state this openly in Libya, it is a jailing offence, It is also a jailing offence to criticise the New Liyan Government.

    Is this the Democracy the West wants to impose?

    • Lupulco, what you say about Lybia is correct. But Lybia under Ghadafi was on the USA/Israel list of countries’ ‘axis of evil’ list and also wanted to stop trading oil in petro dollars. No no no ….can’t do that!

      These humanitarian USA led wars kill far far more than the Governments they try to remove. Iraq 45 minutes WMD …..now 1,000,000 dead.

      Saudi and Bahrain…..oh yes they are fine. Repressive evil governments but on the right side so leave them alone!

      The USA military industrial complex ploughs on regardless because stupid Americans believe the all the bollocks they are fed.

      Talk about it here and it’s a conspiracy and you’re mad.

    • Lupulco

      I was going to draw a line under this  knowing that it’s pointless entering into a debate with those possessed  with an unshakeable belief.

      However in your case given that it was presented as opinion rather than irrefutable fact and because I’ve always argued that there is at least two side to everything, your three sides struck a chord so I’ll respond.

      I’m not sure why you think I only form an opinion based on MSM, certainly nothing I’ve ever posted on here or elsewhere would support your impression, if anything my contentions are generally regarded as contentious and not in line with mainstream thinking and I can say that knowing that all the comments I’ve made are open to scrutiny by the sidebar menu on the right or via the older entries tab JW has provided.

      In respect of Syria, who knows WTF is going on I don’t pretend to. The Syrians I met on the Turkish/Syria  border 3 years ago on a rare excursion outside the city limits of Romford were just like any other people I’ve met anywhere else in the world. One thing I do know is wherever and whenever the two, soon to be three main protagonists rub up against each other people die, mostly unnecessary.

      I would assume that the link you provided was the Syrian regime upping the stakes in what is simply a poker game to some. They’d do well to remember “the Mother of all wars” threat made by a previous neighbour to understand how it plays out.

      If I asked myself about Libya, I would probably ask why if for most of Gaddafi’s rule America detested him, even trying to publicly  kill him with a failed bombing attempt, why would they wait so long to pursue his overthrow and only then by whipping up an uprising in the country next door rather than actually in Libya?

      Acknowledging MSM for a moment and concious of the blogosphere’s distrust, many who railed against the Iraq invasion openly called for the UK government to intervene in Libya when it was perceived that they were reluctant to become involved, maybe they were sucked in by the secret master plan those that are all knowing put forward.

      The important thing to remember is history generally shows the next tyrant is as bad as the one replaced or as useless, sometimes excelling in both simultaneously.

      Another poster drew my attention the other day to “Hanlon’s Razor’. After googling it to find out what it meant, I found myself bereft of agenda, trapped within the confines of the town I reside in, white cat ejected from my lap, dark glasses discarded along with the red pill and tossed into the bin; Hanlon bringing the necessary enlightenment in making the answer obvious to see.

      Lupulco

      I was going to draw a line under this  knowing that it’s pointless entering into a debate with those possessed  with an unshakeable belief.

      However in your case given that it was presented as opinion rather than irrefutable fact and because I’ve always argued that there is at least two side to everything, your three sides struck a chord so I’ll respond.

      I’m not sure why you think I only form an opinion based on MSM, certainly nothing I’ve ever posted on here or elsewhere would support your impression, if anything my contentions are generally regarded as contentious and not in line with mainstream thinking and I can say that knowing that all the comments I’ve made are open to scrutiny by the sidebar menu on the right or via the older entries tab JW has provided.

      In respect of Syria, who knows WTF is going on I don’t pretend to. The Syrians I met on the Turkish/Syria  border 3 years ago on a rare excursion outside the city limits of Romford were just like any other people I’ve met anywhere else in the world. One thing I do know is wherever and whenever the two, soon to be three main protagonists rub up against each other people die, mostly unnecessary.

      I would assume that the link you provided was the Syrian regime upping the stakes in what is simply a poker game to some. They’d do well to remember “the Mother of all wars” threat made by a previous neighbour to understand how it plays out.

      If I asked myself about Libya, I would probably ask why if for most of Gaddafi’s rule America detested him, even trying to publicly  kill him with a failed bombing attempt, why would they wait so long to pursue his overthrow and only then by whipping up an uprising in the country next door rather than actually in Libya?

      Acknowledging MSM for a moment and concious of the blogosphere’s distrust, many who railed against the Iraq invasion openly called for the UK government to intervene in Libya when it was perceived that they were reluctant to become involved, maybe they were sucked in by the secret master plan those that are all knowing put forward.

      The important thing to remember is history generally shows the next tyrant is as bad as the one replaced or as useless, sometimes excelling in both simultaneously.

      Another poster drew my attention the other day to “Hanlon’s Razor’. After googling it to find out what it meant, I found myself bereft of agenda, trapped within the confines of the town I reside in, white cat ejected from my lap, dark glasses discarded along with the red pill and tossed into the bin; Hanlon bringing the necessary enlightenment in making the answer obvious to see.

      Lupulco

      I was going to draw a line under this  knowing that it’s pointless entering into a debate with those possessed  with an unshakeable belief.

      However in your case given that it was presented as opinion rather than irrefutable fact and because I’ve always argued that there is at least two side to everything, your three sides struck a chord so I’ll respond.

      I’m not sure why you think I only form an opinion based on MSM, certainly nothing I’ve ever posted on here or elsewhere would support your impression, if anything my contentions are generally regarded as contentious and not in line with more regular thinking. I can say that knowing that all the comments I’ve made are open to scrutiny by the sidebar menu on the right or via the older entries tab JW has provided. Compare my comments with the constant diatribe from others.

      In respect of Syria, who knows WTF is going on I don’t pretend to. The Syrians I met on the Turkish/Syria  border 3 years ago on a rare excursion outside the city limits of Romford were just like any other people I’ve met anywhere else in the world. One thing I do know is wherever and whenever the two, soon to be three main protagonists rub up against each other people die, mostly unnecessary.

      I would assume that the link you provided was the Syrian regime upping the stakes in what is simply a poker game to some. They’d do well to remember “the Mother of all wars” threat made by a previous neighbour to understand how it plays out.

      If I asked myself about Libya, I would probably ask why, given that for most of Gaddafi’s rule America detested him, going as far as to trying to publicly  kill him with a failed bombing attempt, why would they wait so long to pursue his overthrow and only then by whipping up an uprising in the country next door rather than actually in Libya?

      Acknowledging MSM for a moment and concious of the blogosphere’s distrust, many who railed against the Iraq invasion openly called for the UK government to intervene in Libya when it was perceived that they were reluctant to become involved, maybe they were sucked in by the secret master plan those that are all knowing put forward.

      The important thing to remember is history generally shows the next tyrant is as bad as the one replaced or as useless, sometimes excelling in both simultaneously.

      Another poster drew my attention the other day to “Hanlon’s Razor’. After googling it to find out what it meant, I found myself bereft of agenda, trapped within the confines of the town I reside in, white cat ejected from my lap, dark glasses discarded along with the red pill and tossed into the bin; Hanlon bringing the necessary enlightenment in making the answer obvious to see.

      • I could pretend that I’ve repeated the post to show how boring repeated repetition is, but that would be a lie, it was simply a wordpress error.

      • @RD: …reasoning will never make a man correct an ill opinion, which by reasoning he never acquired… (Swift)

      • Though i must say i am not for conspiracy theories at all , David is passionate about all this and i admire passion , dare say i admire it more than reason ( i know hell will break out) .Passion changes history , no reason .Reason sometimes encloses us within the circle of its perceptions . Reason doesn’t always give us freedom , neither truth is always objective and what we believed as true in the past and past is never closed down , changes and receives a new meaning by subsequent acts. Passion knows no bars , no barbed wire , knows no jew no greek , no slave no master .Passion though , no illusions !

  14. Dear Sloggers,
    You have my full permission to talk amongst yourselves until our dear leader returns from his mystery trip travels.
    Kindest regards to all.

  15. John’s probably holed up in some comfy hotel in sothern Ireland with a bottle or two, reading this blog on auto pilot and rolling on the floor laughing…

  16. John W, I’ve tried to keep a contentious debate going in your absence but I’m running out of whiskey. Can you hurry back?

  17. CAN ANYBODY EXPLAIN TO ME HOW THE BBC KNEW THE 47 STOREY WORLD TRADE CENTER BUILDING NUMBER 7 (THE SALOMON BUILDING) HAD COLLAPSED 23 MINUTES BEFORE IT ACTUALLY HAPPENED ON 9/11. IT WASN’T HIT BY A PLANE.

    OH IT’S JUST A CONSPIRARCY THEORY SO THAT’S OK I’M JUST MAD!

      • How many weeks does it take to set the explosives to demolish a building ….? World Trade Center Building 7. The Salomon Building.

    • It would be like playing the same lottery numbers every week and the one week you don’t play YOU WON! Well lost actually like everybody else except the elite.

  18. How many of you out there knew that 3 towers collapsed on 9/11 ….one of them hit by nothing. Until 9/11 no steel framed building in the world had ever collapsed completely by fire. On 9/11 3 buildings collapsed completely and nano thermite explosives were found in the debris. Nano thermite cuts through steel like a hot knife through butter. But that’s just a conspiracy theory.

  19. Have just been watching the BBC Four’s travesty on Grammar schools – until an urgent need to find a sick bag. It was all about the poor working class kids i.e children (and not young goats) who couldn’t “afford” to stay on into the 6th form… and then they wheeled out the blast from the past – kinnock referred to as “some say the best Prime Minister Britain never had” (Funny I thought that was said of David Owen).

    Anyway the late John Smith did for him when in the week leading up to the 1992 General Election as Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer (although he didn’t have to) he announced labour’s “tax bombshell”. The man most surprised at winning the election was John Major who said “Who’d have thought it!” Always looking for the vested interest I wondered at the time whether Mr Smith had, knowing that he was more popular than Mr k, deliberately sacrificed the 1992 election knowing it would force Mr k’s resignation so he could become leader of the party and Prime Minister in waiting…….

    Oh and for what its worth, when my Father read the letter informing him that I had been successful in gaining a place at the local Grammar School which would normally mean staying on until 18 his words to me were: ” I can’t afford to keep you on until you’re 18……..”

    We compromised from 16 onwards I worked to pay for my school uniform…..

      • Ouch! But you have to admit recent history shows that there are latent / overt tensions between PMs and their Chancellors even the shadow ones….

    • Steph, I remember those days. My sister had to leave Grammer School when she was 16 because she was a girl …..I was allowed to stay on until I was 18 because I was a boy!

  20. Oh dear.. Armchair Black Op’s operators and NWO conspiracy scholars… I suspect the skipper is shaking his head and having a hamlet moment… The truth may well be out there,but I doubt somehow that its on youtube.

  21. oh dear where am i? by strange coincidence i find that i am totally lost and have stumbled upon a blog which appears to have lost its owner…what a super photo-opportunity…

    …now, there have been some ill-founded rumours circulating the country this week, which reportedly suggest that, during the course of a recent family outing, i became peeved by my daughter’s behaviour, locked her in a pub-toilet, and then left her to fend for-herself walkabout-style…so let me therefore inform you all that this is absolutely untrue and, may i say, a gross misrepresentation by our national pressure of the real events of last sunday…for in actual fact, sam and i deliberately left our daughter to find her way home alone – as part of a carefully planned and controlled self-empowerment exercize, inspired largely by the brave and innovative early experiments conducted by mr and mrs branson upon their own son, richard…however, it must be said that, after 15 minutes of pure blissful peace and bloody calm, we reviewed our decision, having taken into due account rising concerns at the possibility of our little angel suffering from irreversible socially-incapacitating side-effects such as the development of wild woolly left-wing tendencies and a preponderance to prang red hot-air-balloons into the middle of the atlantic ocean.

    • Listen Dave, we know you locked her in there because she wouldn’t shut up about bailing out the Spanish being stupid and how she’d get less pocket money as a result. How dare you even mention her in the same breath as the man who invented chutney??

    • EU spokesman quoted in the Telegraph:

      Our role is to say what is possible under EU law, not to draw up scenarios. We’re not scriptwriters for disaster films.

      Although EU apparatchiks claim that capital controls are legally possible under the Lisbon Treaty, they avoid mentioning that it would be a blatant violation of the Single Market Treaty. And they also talk about withdrawing the Schengen agreement. It looks like they’re planning to close the borders and steal all the money. They should consult Brazilian politicos in the latter, they’ve been doing it for decades.

  22. We can disclose that reports are coming in on the private wires that JW has been seen in the company of a well known newspaper owner, with a large suitcase handcuffed to his wrist, leaving a bank premises that we have been watching for other reasons.
    We are not able to disclose the location for obvious security reasons, but would suggest that you come to your own conclusions.

  23. “[Credit is a system whereby] a person who can’t pay, gets another person who can’t pay, to guarantee that he can pay.”
    ― Charles Dickens, Little Dorrit

    • Man: “Do you like Dickens?”
      Girl (raised on Mills and Boon so not to blame): “I don’t know, I’ve never been to one.”
      (credited to Ronnie Scott)

      • She was only a fishmongers daughter but, she knew how to plaice and fillet.

        I’ll get my coat!

      • She was only a sergeant’s daughter but she was full of the Officers’ Mess.

        She was only a signaller’s daughter but she did-it, did-it, did-it.

        (Who Flung Dung nicked my coat – I’ll get my anorak)

      • She was only a Cattleman’s daughter, but she couldn’t keep her calves together…..

        ….I only came back cos’ I took the wrong coat!

      • Last one, I promise ;-)>

        Little Johnny’s teacher:”Johnny please use horticulture in a sentence”

        Johnny said:”You can lead a horticulture but you can’t make her learn”

        Uh-oh, the Police are at the door, got to go……………………

    • @WFD. It’s a pity no-one listened to Mr Micawber … “Annual income, twenty pounds, aught and sixpence … ” etc.

      • @MaxC
        Yep. Never a truer words said, If only more people would live by the former, then less misery all round.
        I think some people feel psychological pain if they can’t have the “stuff” right away.
        I think if schools taught the children how to think rather than what to think, and a bit of how to deal with income in to income out,then they wouldn’t be so susceptible to all the overt/covert advertising/Tv BS.

  24. ‘Italy doesn’t need a bailout,’ claims Mario Monti. Methinks he doth protest too much. And on the periphery, Finland may tell Brussels to take a hike, and the Russians appear to completing their purchase of Cyprus. Such fun!

    • Bear in mind these rankings apply to ‘expatriate’ living costs which may not be the same as locals and residents. eg: rental accomodation may be expensive in Tokyo but many Japanese locals wouldn’t be affected by that. Nevertheless, the guide is very useful.

      • Absolutely BT. Based on New York as the base case. Includes all the things an expat would have in NY such as air conditioning, private schools etc that the locals don’t have/ need when in temperate climes/ civilised places. That’s why Luanda is so high. New York expat living standards in fourth world hell hole. That’s Luanda not NY – its third world.

      • @AH: I believe Mercer produce this comparative data mainly for use by large public/private sector orgs who have people working abroad for periods on assignment etc; it helps them to calculate monthly living allowances. My own company used Mercer data for that very purpose.

        I’ll be crossing Luanda off my list of “places to visit before I die”! ;-)

  25. Come back John, for Christ’s sake. Look how your blog has deteriorated into an argument between conspiracy theorists in your absence. Theorists – the header to this blog includes the phrase “evidence based”.

  26. Syria.

    The Obama administration accused Russia of sending attack helicopters to Damascus, linking Moscow to Syria’s deadly unrest on a day the United Nations’ top peacekeeper said the conflict now bears the hallmarks of a civil war.

    A shipment of attack helicopters is “on the way from Russia to Syria, which will escalate the conflict quite dramatically,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Tuesday, heightening pressure on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s staunchest international backer.

  27. Γη κλήση Stodd ….. Γη κλήση Stodd …… Βαθμονομήστε συνεχές χρόνο σας ….. είστε ακόμα συντονισμένοι στην ημέρα πριν από την ημέρα μετά από το χρόνο TDBD

  28. On the subject of Eurogeddon I have been wondering why Spanish banks needed a 100B bailout.

    Bank losses on property are paper not cash so they would not need new funds to cover that. The Spanish banks might need funds to cover third party liabilities used to fund these non-performing loans. However they have been getting this through LTRO1&2, and Target 2 and various other ECB scams.

    They might also need money to buy Spanish Government debt which is clearly out of cash – or a plug the hole created by the silent bank run.

    However LTRO3 looks unlikely as the Spanish banks have run out of collateral. This leaves Target2, secondary market bond buying by the ECB (recycling Spanish bank bond holdings) and various other “liquidity” and emergency measures.
    But if say the Bundesbank was now effectively capping its Target2 exposure – at a shade under 700B – then it might mean that the ECB is out of ammunition. Hence the need for a bail out.

    I’m not sure about all of this and just posting some thoughts. But having just shipped Spain c 700B+ over 6 months via Target2 and LTRO – why has the tap been turned off? And if it has – what does this mean?

    But it is not as if there is enough money in Europe to bail out Spain – and some is scheduled to come from Italy!

    This may be signalling the start of the end game – hence a 2 hour market bounce only.

    • Just a thought, and I’d be interested in considered responses… IF the Eurozone were to split into North and South, (and subject to tighter banking controls) might it be advantageous for the UK to throw in our lot with the Germans who, after all, are our blood brothers and happen to be rather good at making a living?

      • @MaxC: IMVHO that may be something for us to consider in the medium/long term, but not now. The reason is that although the UK may have better productivity than ClubMeds, we are nowhere near Germany, so there would continue to be a mismatch between member states. This underscores the flawed idea of splitting the EZ into two groups. It will solve the huge economic differences between north and south but not between members of each group. I do not therefore see splitting the EZ into two as a solution, only a partial solution.

    • @marcjf: Here’s my view of Spanish bank bailouts…

      If a Spanish bank lent Xavier & Co €100 million to fund his villa construction business, the bank will hold that loan debt on its books as an asset. But if Xavier finds the the market collapses half way through his construction programme he might decide to liquidate his business, run for the trees and leave the bank holding a dud loan and partially completed properties, all unsold at the original market prices. The bank then has to mark down the value of their asset to market value, which may only be 1/3rd of its original value. There are in excess of 1 million unsold propeties in Spain apparently.The banks have a problem…

      • BT – I agree with your analysis but that is a paper loss – not a cash flow issue. Or at least not in the short term. So I’m wondering if things have really caught up with Spanish banks or if there is another reason why Spain all of a sudden needs 100B of real money it can spend. And why it can’t get it from the ECB?

      • @marcjf: I’m probably missing something here…but how is it only a paper loss? If the bank loaned €100 million to Xavier, when his business folded it would become a loss on their books as the loan asset was subjected to re-evaluation at market prices of what’s left of his business. I believe the Spanish banks are reluctant to do this because it would show them as insolvent, not least because of the capital reserves rules. Are we talking about funny money? ;-)

      • BT – I guess it depends on the timescales. However if a bank lends money it is gone. As it is repaid by the borrower it is recouped. So in cash flow terms they are always down – and need to cover the gap with deposits and by borrowing themselves from the wholesale market and repayments from older loans.

        But recognising a loss doesn’t alter the cash flows – except you probably won’t get any more repayments. Crystalising all future likely non-repayments from a dud loan will create a big paper loss and a balance sheet hole today. But the cash impact will be much less today, and will only catch up over the remaining term of the loan.

        So my point is – why do the Spanish banks need the cash today? Sure they need c400B over the next few years to cover losses and support deposits, capital and wholesale lending (from German and French banks????). So is the 100B the cash gap to date – which has been filled by LTRO/Target2 up until now – or is something else happenning? But with target2 going up 50 to 100B per month you’d have thought it was small beer – unless Buba has said no more???

        Don’t know but something is not computing.

      • @marcjf: I understand what you’re saying. The only explanation I can think of is that banks are being obliged or forced to mark-to-market their growing ranks of non-performing loans. Would that not present them as insolvent without bailouts?

  29. Unconfirmed reports of a renegade U boat threatening shipping lanes in the Plymouth area.Confirmed reports of bank runs building up in Sicily,as local business magnates dump the Euro.Flood of cash to the French protectorate of ‘South Ken’,as the Paris market votes with its feet.B of E governor,MarK,confirmed as having deliberately caused the collapse of Northern Crock,and ensuring a banking run.Garry denying all knowledge of anything,despite being First Lord of the Treasury.Market reports leaking out of an attack on Sterling,orchestrated from Mayfair,scheduled July, and massive programme trading expected to depress values in the FTSE in August.

  30. Following yesterdays’ to do and on reflection, I think I may have overreacted to Winston’s perceived criticism of my criticism.

    JW’s created an interesting and enlightening blog here where it’s diversity of opinion and links to other informative articles is unique in being both entertaining and educational. Petty squabbles merely detract from it and that’s not what I intend to do.

    Winston, I apologise for my unnecessarily personal comments towards you.

    In keeping with the spirit of my apology and the aforementioned diversity, I’ve linked to a MSM article, yes even though some would have it few believe them, to highlight an opinion from Will Hutton who’s more concerned with the outlook for the UK post EU crisis, assuming that can ever achieved.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/10/will-hutton-britain-must-stay-in-europe?newsfeed=true

    This really is the sort of thing that motivates me, both for the future per se and more importantly the future of my grandchildren. Not a NWO, not a master plan nor a conspiracy of conspiracists, but ever conscious that the £1 to 1.25 Euro exchange rate, a catalyst JW warned of a while back, was breached the other day.

    • Bloody brilliant…Farage’s best ever. It leaves just one almighty question…who is in charge of the ‘welcome home’ bunting for our beloved leader. You are sure to spot him – he’ll be dressed in his faithful old shell suit, running with Mrs Merkel in his arms, and her hair on fire.

      • What a pity NF didn’t win a seat in the Commons I think he would liven up the ultra dull PMQs. As for JW – I like the olympic torch relay analogy and further more I think JW would be far too much of a gentleman to stop and pee to put the flames out especially knowing the high regard in which he holds the lady.

      • @Send in the clowns/Stephenroi
        Yes, and afterwards he could put her on ebay and make a few quid!

  31. From the BBC;

    “Jeremy Hunt denies lying to Parliament over the BSkyB takeover, as MPs vote not to launch an inquiry over whether he broke ministerial rules.”

    OH. Turns out he wasn’t a lying hunt after all!

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