BREAKING….Eurozone monthly sales trend TEN times worse than expected

Aggressive reality cancer hits Europe

European slump seen to be accelerating exponentially

The Eurozone’s April retail sales were down a full 1% compared to the March figure. The ‘expected’ fall was -0.1%. Year-on-year, the number predicted was -1%. The actual figure has come in at -2.5%.

These figures are open to just the one interpretation. Think about this:

1. Expectations of a one per cent fall between 2012 and 2011 show the half-asleep eurocrats again hoping that (a) annualised declines would be 2.5 times slower than they really were; and (b) that the latest deceleration would be ten times slower than it was.

2. Far from decelerating, the rate of decline is in reality increasing dramatically: that rate of acceleration is now seen to be fourfold in twelve months.

Just averaging that out versus 2011/2010, it means all the projections for 2013-15 are complete nonsense. The train is heading for the cliff, the brakes are shot, and the driver jumped out some miles back.

Every Troika analyst, central banker an Exchequer boss in the Western World needs to think again. These figures are disastrous, and will start to spook (and spike) every Sovereign bond market in Europe.

Yes, it’s another triumph for Pristine Lowgrade & the Troikanauts.

Related: At three minutes past midnight, Merkel shifts her position

66 thoughts on “BREAKING….Eurozone monthly sales trend TEN times worse than expected

  1. Facecrook now down 29 percent.Momentum in economies and markets points in one direction only.Time for another EU summit.

    • William – we could write the script for the press release today :-)

      I remember the hype and excitement when BP was floated at 313p per share … in 1987. Wonderful timing as the Fish-hurricane hit and the FTSE dropped like a stone from the following day. (313p in 1987 is approx. 720p in today’s money. BP price is hovering around 410p. Somewhere there’s a message).

      One stockbroker I knew back then (shared your surname John) was wandering back and forth with a lost sort of look; repeated visits to the lavatory and moaning sepulchrally, “It’s down another 100 ..” All us (relative) young uns who had been saying for weeks that a correction was overdue were not looked upon kindly.

      The difference back then was that we all expected we would climb back out of the hole, given time….

      • @ Caratacus.Feels more like 1974 to me,banks in trouble,house prices ridiculous,inflation,wrong responses from Government and the Old Lady,and the lessons of 1929 not learnt.IF there was a second leg sell off,and an abandonment of QE(MarK has been a DISASTER),and a new full time occupant of No 11, well then ….

      • @ william – Amen to that.

        But Lynyrd Skynyrd was singing “Sweet Home Alabama” in ’74, even as Heath + Barber were cranking up the printing presses. Poor bastard Healey had to accept the IMF’s loving embrace for that one and has been reviled for it ever since.

      • I’m with William. It’s 1974. But never forget early 1975 when the worm turned and you couldn’t get in. The markets could be like that after the EZ breaks completely. Places to go with be those who leave the Euro.

      • I was referring to the numbers of the giant credit-funded ponzi scheme that we live under, which banks and sovereigns are at the centre of. I’m not aware of any ponzi scheme that has not collapsed. This one happens to be the biggest one ever and will destroy everything when it topples, probably including what we have left of democracy. Unfunded liabilities morphing into unpaid liabilities is certainly one of the many possible consequences. What lies ahead is very scary…how it pans out will depend on the people and the actions they take.

    • @BT perhaps the collapse of democracy will be a good thing, at the end of the day I don’t see democracy getting us out of the sh1t. We need strong autocratic rule with a clear direction — politicians can never deliver that.

      • @Nick Gligic: If politicians cannot deliver what you want: “autocratic rule”, who do you have in mind?

  2. John,

    What are you talking about? It isn’t fridges or photographers or poets or trains that keep the European Project alive,

    It’s tax payers.

    Until 300 million taxpayers are driven over a cliff a-la Greek style, then the policians or the banks won’t be too concerned.

    The European Union promised to enrich lives and it has. Show me a politician who is poorer than before the EU “Project” began?

    Barosso? Van Rompuy? even half of their own countrymen had never heard of them.

    There are still plenty of Taxpayers around (unless of course you work for the EU), I’d say this saga has years left and of course if you listen to Angela on one of the daily occaisions she isn’t in the fridge, the answer to all of their problems is more POWER to the European Union.

    Seems to me the “enriching” has barely even started.

    Otherwise, keep up the good work!

    • Long term (though not far away) they are going to try and outlaw cash; force everyone to use debit cards. That way they can keep a lid on the black economy that would otherwise thrive, and tax everything as it passes through your account.
      Keep u all under control, pilfer our savings, and wipe out our pensions.

      • We here about this a lot and I can see the benefit for government.
        But if they tax all ‘+’ entries going though your bank account tax by assuming its earned income and apply a transaction tax, they’ll have riots on the streets.

      • If they tried that BS on I for one would resist fervently. Worse thought, about chipping people, NO F’ing WAY! and I mean NO F’ing WAY!

        Although some people I know would queue up the night before just to get their ‘phones plugged in to the back of their heads!

        Anyway, people have ingenuity, it’s what we are about, people would use virtually anything to use as a non cash system. ie this for that.

  3. Maybe it will galvanise those who make these decisions into making the right one?

    I’ll get my coat and return to prayer…………

  4. what I like most about not shopping is that every penny not spent feels like a vote of no confidence in the entire system

  5. ~Just averaging that out versus 2011/2010, it means all the projections for 2013-15 are complete nonsense.~

    Of course the projections are nonsense, I´m sure every last eurocrat knows that, because I assume they had the same math classes as everyone else. We have long passed the point when they started to just make their numbers up as they go.

    All we are seeing now is the band on the Titanic still playing, we hit the iceberg long ago and are starting to get our feet wet…

  6. Not long until Angela cracks under the pressure and gives permission for the printing to begin . Then they’ll be no excuses for not going full steam ahead
    with complete political integration .The dream is getting closer to being fulfilled.

    • I really don’t think she will, she is made of sterner stuff than that. It may take a black op moment from our cousins across the Atlantic to remove the cork that is Merkel and let the flow of inky tasting wine flood out to slake the thirst of the desert dwellers.

      Perhaps that is what Satyrikon was trying to tell us with his Greek cork?

    • @laurence: You may be right.
      But it’s just as likely IMV that we will see a globally co-ordinated series of sovereign & bank defaults – aka the big Reset button. Followed by a rebuilding process that includes major changes to how the financial system operates as it affects banks and sovereigns. This may be carried out from behind the veil of some other events going on at the time.

      • @BT: “This may be carried out from behind the veil of some other events going on at the time.”
        Like the US invading Syria/Iran?
        Good analogy. The big Reset button does need a nudge. If Obama could get a second term and the US debt mountain considerably reduced he could be in The White House for a while.

      • @kfc: Yeah…that’s what I’m thinking. Nothing’s certain but we all know the debt crises cannot be fixed and now Spain’s fallen over. They’ll have to do something decisive and they’ll want to distract or hide the enormity of it as much as possible. It’s just a matter of timing and whether the elites have the spine to face reality that they’ve screwed it.

  7. So the G7 finance chiefs are having another emergency meeting about the euro crisis. Either these people have very little work to do so therefore have to justify the empires they’ve built for themselves, or this is a case where the words headless and chickens come into play.

    • And the funny thing is, Brussels official deny that this is an emergency teleconference.
      I think their quick reaction plan is to have daily teleconferences between EuroZone, EU, Troika and G8, and collect the accrued call charges to enforce EFSF.

    • Well David S if these guys are running things behind the scenes they are really good at hiding their efforts. All I can see at the top of the pile are clueless bureaucrats who have painted themselves into a corner and are madly trying to come up with Plan B.

      • The only thing I can say about aliens creating us is, ( although to be fair AJ did say in his second vid. he didn’t believe in the aliens story), is WHO created the aliens!

        Too much to worry about on earth, if there are aliens what can I do?

  8. Pingback: John Ward – Breaking …Eurozone Montly Sales Trend TEN Times Worse Than Expected – 5 June 2012 | Lucas 2012 Infos

      • I’m just reading the statement about the G7 not even agreeing on a joint statement, and guffawing at the sheer insanity and incompetence on display.

        Schadenfreude is wrong, but it’s just so apt at this moment. :-)

    • I think they are only planning 1B or so of 10Y and surely there is some LTRO money lying around somewhere – a few more months’ worth. And the ECB may do its special markets thing again. I suspect this is smoke and mirrors more than a real cash need – to “prove” that they really are not insolvent – which incedentally is the reasonable expectation that you WILL not be able to pay your debts as they fall due – not already are in that unhappy position.

      We may well see bond yeilds fall???!!! Fixing the markets again.

  9. All I can say is, I am SO VERY GLAD that Sarkosy, Rumpy Pumpy and Verbalosso (diarrhoea) have all repeatedly assured us ‘The Crisis is solved’…..Phew!!

  10. Pingback: Eurozone monthly sales trend TEN times worse than expected [The Slog] « Mktgeist blog

  11. Pingback: John Ward – Breaking …Eurozone Montly Sales Trend TEN Times Worse Than Expected – 5 June 2012 « [Occupy] Aquarius Channelings

    • Has anyone told the German taxpayers? What a choice. About the way I saw things but nice to see some detailed analysis.

      Ponzi sparprogram? Germans lending club-med their savings to buy more Mercs – but never get paid back. Could have just given them away.

      • To quote a comment on ZH that sums it up perfectly;

        “So where’s the column that shows the costs of staying in the Euro, and then adding the collapse of the Euro after “staying in the euro” doesn’t work? Shouldn’t there be a sum of both?”

        That’s my take on the whole shambles too :-)

        The thing about gambling that sorts winners from loser’s is not about knowing when to go all in, but more importantly knowing when to quit when your ahead.

        But I guess when it’s not your money your gambling with, as per our illustrious politicians and bankers, you can never lose.

      • First and earliest loss is always the cheapest. Not that the politicians have the strength to implement such a policy. Expect the last and most expensive loss – at the end when the can runs out of road. The only way forward to prevent break up now is a short term timetable to joint and several economics in the EZ (call it what you want) backed by massive printing to buy the time. And even then I’m not so sure it would work.

  12. To think this could all have been avoided in 2009, when the first chink in the armor started showing in Greece… Germany’s decision to let Greece fall, and fall, and fall… is why people questioned the EZ… if they had shown the world that everyone (including them) would do whatever it took to set things right… no one would have ever have had reason to doubt the security of the EZ… Merkel’s stalling tactics and half measures designed more to shore up their own banks, and limit their exposure to Greek debt showed the world that when push comes to shove… and the Euro falls under attack it’s every man for themselves….

    George Soros recently said :

    “The first step was taken by Germany when, after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, Angela Merkel declared that the virtual guarantee extended to other financial institutions should come from each country acting separately, not by Europe acting jointly. It took financial markets more than a year to realize the implication of that declaration, showing that they are not perfect.
    This is a really huge point to grasp, because a nagging question has been: Why did the market think of Spain/Greece/Italy/Etc. as being risk-free sovereigns at one point, and then decide that they were not risk free and subject to credit risk.
    Soros answer: Because they were essentially risk-free so long as the arc was always towards more integration. That ended when Merkel made the declaration he says above.”

    http://www.businessinsider.com/george-soros-speech-in-trento-on-the-euro-crisis-2012-6

    • To think this could all have been avoided in 2009, when the first chink in the armor started showing in Greece

      The problem was realised 10 years ago or more – I recall the arguments about ‘Club-Med’ countries then and most if not all had the numbers fudged to allow them in but the Wet-Dream was priceless

      • I mean just more recently, since the 2008 crash that started all of this… besides, it wasn’t only the Meds that fudged the numbers… Germany was only under 3% limit because they did not add the costs of their “re-unification” with East Germany… the rules only apply to those weak enough not to change them, and be punished when they do.

  13. . Trust is also included or produced by “animal spirits” according to JM Keynes, he forgot to tell us where we can buy these spirits. I believe that “animal spirits” have a higher alcohol content than rum so the stuff should work if we can find it.

    • @BT.’Where’s Garry when you need him?’ Lieing low over the Jubilee,considering his 2 future career choices.First up,there is a vacancy as Lembit Opik’s manager.Second ,retrain at MF Global, Michael Fish’s new school of international weather forecasting.Hobson’s choice.

      • hhmmm. I thought he might be hiding out somewhere working on the finishing touches of a new financial system which perfects the Endogenous Growth Theory.

  14. @marcjf,
    I agree, they will prolong this for as long as possible, whilst there’s anything worth looting. The problem is now that we are in a deflationary death spiral, any QE will surely be frittered on the commodities market, which will show up as inflation later. China is struggling with that very problem now, courtesy of the trillions of Yuan printed so far.

    I think they have shot their last bullet TBH, we have all been force fed that austerity is the way to go and that national spending is the devil incarnate.
    I think the politico’s would be greeted with howls of derision if they were now to turn round and say spending is what we have to do.

    FIAT based economies, confidence,confidence,confidence.

    Catch 22. Yossarian would be proud :-)

    • Lot of discussion about the 99%. May actually only be 98% – 1% who have the cash and another 1% who realise what is going on – or at least the risks.

      But the confdence is still there – for the 98% who watch the Soap Operas on TV and don’t want to think. Though for how much longer I don’t know. But the end game won’t be a rational thought through set of events. It will be chaotic panic as the majority try to resuce their savings amidst a financial crash.

      Sites such as this tend to attract self-reinforcing comments and evidence. But I’m stuggling to see what happens when a key link becomes detached – my money is on Target2. Once the Germans stop lending to the ECB we will know the game is up.

      • Your correct, the confidence is there until it isn’t, case in point the recent stupid panic over the fuel shortage that never materialised, the thing with panics is they tend to be self reinforcing and very hard to stop.

        The thing that frightens me most is when we start getting into silly patriotic chest thumping and the ugly spectre of mob rule and crowd dynamics, that’s when things get truly nasty. I truly hope we are beyond all that. It was heartening to see the huge public outcry over the illegal Iraq war. Hope springs eternal :-)

  15. The Optimistic Projection Syndrome (aka PR manipulation of stats) is not confined to a small group. Other members include the UK Treasury (growth never knowingly underestimated) and the horrendous Sir Merv, with his endless mantra of ‘low inflation tomorrow, low inflation yesterday but never low inflation today’. And those are UK stats! Imagine what goes on in the southern EU countries regarding statistics. Oh, well, as my Mum would say, it’s only a page of numbers… don’t get so worked up!

  16. Maybe Merv should take some lessons from Bernanke,
    Turbo Tax Timmy, or Obummer..
    There are no un suspect facts and figures anymore, anywhere..
    Showing the true figures is something none of the ruling elites
    dare do for fear of summary justice.
    I’d believe Enron’s accounts sooner.
    TSHF moment can only be delayed now by hyper inflation,
    which will be next,probably under the guise of patriotic war fever.
    A long hot summer is coming.

  17. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9312513/UK-banks-sitting-on-40bn-of-undeclared-losses.html

    PIRC said the rule was “masking the true position [of the accounts] by including fictional assets and fictional profits”.”

    Dividends and bonuses are being paid out on inflated profit numbers, it added, when they should be retained to boost the banks’ capital cushions.”

    So much for mark to market accounting, another bailout in 3,2,1

  18. Probably not a cherry as the eventual trigger for downfall, but this scene kind of reminds me of the situation:

    • @steviefinn
      I have this film on dvd, a modern-day Laurel and Hardy, (L&H, whom I love), Great film. ( the bit where he shoots out the floor, classic!)

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