LABOUR POLL LEAD: A loss of faith in the Coalition, a loss of face for Camerlot.

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Doooerrh…what’s up Dave?

You have to hand it to David Cameron, he’s not a hoarder: no Party leader in British history has thrown away quite as much as he.

With only a mentally-torpedoed, half-blind Caledonian failure to beat in May 2010, he threw away what had been a clear lead in Opposition, and saddled Britain with a more confused (and confusing) Government than I for one have ever experienced.

Now in the two years since, his Government has become unpopular for mucking up an austerity policy which was never going to make any difference in the first place….and for harbouring criminal lowlife in the face of overwhelming evidence of their guilt.

Sixteen days after The Slog pointed out that, in context, Osborne’s austerity drive was largely irrelevant, the Maily Telegraph has caught on. Bond Trading firm Tullett Prebon said that “public expenditures have hardly been reduced at all” and that claims of a “big cut in public spending is bare-faced deception”. But being also The Sarkist, the Telegraph omits to mention that the reason a £13bn saving is irrelevant is the £95bn thrown at bank stability aka QE by Mervyn King over the same period.

But then we know the Barclays are for Boris, not Dave. I’ve often wondered: are the playing fields of Eton level?

The Osborne Austerititor was a political showboat from day one, and now it’s sinking. Don’t ask about a Plan B, there isn’t one. Labour, of course, wants us all to think that the recovery has been damaged over last 2 yrs by “The Cuts”. In fact, the seeds of it were laid by Gordon Blown – then fertilised by massive ‘uncertainty’ in the euroblown…and the soil was rich in the first place because we all went Big Bang for 30 years and neglected the manufacturing sector.

It’s all about blowing and banging, really.

Whether the public has spotted much of this is doubtful, but what they do seem to have cottoned onto at last is that Lord Cameroid and his Pals tell gweat big fibs so there. And telling gweat big fibs while being cwap at spin does not a big poll lead produce.

So it shouldn’t really be a surprise that the latest Daily Mirror/YouGov poll shows the Ed Miller Band storming into a 14-point lead – the biggest for ten years. The depressing numbers for Camerlot are Labour on 45%, Tories on 31%, UKIP on 8% (if they remember to register) and the Cleggerons on 7%.

Under the revised ‘fewer-seats’ boundaries, Labour would have 368, the Conservatives 203, the LibDems 6, and of course UKIP -31.

The YouGov government disapproval figure at almost two-thirds is a new all-comers record, something of which the Prime Minister should feel justly proud in this, our Olympics year.

As I’ve yet to see any focus group research on the reasons behind this temporary collapse of stout Party, what follows has to be conjecture. There might seem to be a few clues here and there – over 43% of those interviewed in the latest Daily Telegraph Poll think welfare reform is an attack on the disabled, and thousands are to be removed from the educational Special Needs lists – but I doubt if this has a lot to do with it: the NHS at hospital level is about to be first starved and then raped, but nobody seems to give two fifths of a flying f**k about that – so why would they get worked up enough about anti-scrounger reforms?

No, I think the main things to have happened since the last dipstick poll (“Are you a dipstick?” “No”) are the Hunt BSkyB scandal, the wider Leveson enquiry, and the accelerating eurozone demise. All of these have shown for near-certain what many people – even Tory voters – have been thinking for several months: that the Kinghts of Camerlot are playing for the Dark Side, have neither morals nor ethics in the way they deny the obvious, and lack the guts to turn their professed euro-scepticism into practical policy.

British voters as a whole will forgive serial mendacity and corruption if a government seems to know what it’s doing, and tells Johnny Foreigner where to get off. But when a government seems muddled, stupid, nefarious – and spineless against Berlin-on-Brussels – all at the same time, the voters desert it in droves.

This is what’s happening. And it’s coming from inside the Tory Party as well as from outside in the real world.

The Met Office says that the new cold snap is going to last until mid June. There’s a very chilly feeling emenating for the Tory Right at the moment. Whether it will snap the Party remains to be seen: being behind in the polls vindicates the doubts of the 1922ers…but it also makes government-breaking a potentially suicidal act.

Whether that YouGov 45% would actually be mad enough to vote for the Balls ‘borrow more to save more’ oxymoronic policy is another matter. But the outrageously illiberal ’5 year term’ act passed by the ConDemned the minute they got their feet under the table two years ago may well come back to bite them. It is now far easier than it used to be for a sitting Prime Minister to be put out in the rain without an election. And some form of more right-wing Government might be cobbled together with the help of one or two principled players from elsewhere in the House – even perhaps a minority Tory Government surviving because the LibDems were scared of destabilising it.

Either way, whether the 1922, or Newscorp, or Hunt, or euromeltdown does for Camerlot, its inhabitants are now doomed. If the loudmouths behind Graham Brady have either bottle or strategic sense, they will get rid of him now rather than wait for events to crucify the bloke.

46 thoughts on “LABOUR POLL LEAD: A loss of faith in the Coalition, a loss of face for Camerlot.

  1. Timing.
    And now Dave’s bosom LOL buddy has just been charged with perverting the course of justice. Another knife in the front.
    Now when is J. Spoonerism going to fall on his rusty sword?
    Must be by the end of the month.
    Now if Wee George makes the really BIG mistake of volunteering some bunce into Merkel’s “All-27-Eurostates-have-to-help-save-the-Eurozone-fund” – I’ll move permanently to Sweden.
    What wheezes, eh chaps??

  2. BUT whoever got into power they were going to be unpopular at this point, and more so by the next election. I really doubt anyone else would have achieved a different result.

    I understand we are not cutting expenditure at all, but i think that is the right strategy. I hate the waste, but to change a system in place for 30 yrs at a stroke is the wrong thing to do. We need to adjust slowly over a 10 yr period if we can get away with it.

  3. Special Needs is an industry in itself. There are pupils that really do need the more personal approach to encourage and coax their abilities.

    There are also those that are just not academic but the special needs industry and education policy seems intent on forcing them down an academic road. This leads to more not less alienation.

    I believe strongly that we should return to a selective education system but not based on the 11+ academic style assessment, and possibly not at that age. There must be a way of determining aptitudes for art, science & engineering, language skills and more pure academia and having a different curriculum for each instance.

    • Thick kids are thick kids, there’s nothing you can do about it. Parents don’t like having thick kids so they go for a Statement of SEN, so now they’re not thick just challenged!
      Once upon a time thick kids were offered trades, skills and work, and became tax paying, Current Bun reading citizens.
      Now, no tradesmen to teach them, no manufacturing so no skill acquisition and no wor.

  4. Sorry,Col,we do not have 10 months,let alone years to ‘adjust’.It is P45s for one million civil servants,cuts in the £190 billion welfare budget of at least £20 billion,and cuts in income tax to maintain aggregate demand,or the ship will go down.

    • Er William since there are not one million civil servants currently in post, are you suggesting we hire some more?

      http://www.civilservant.org.uk/numbers.pdf

      “There were about 435,000 fte civil servants in
      post in Quarter 4 2011, including casual/temporary staff”

      If you are going to start bandying figures about, at least make sure that they are accurate!

      However it is all too easy to blame civil servants, they make nice scapegoats for others failings.

      But no, let us just keep on bashing civil servants instead…

      Yawn….

      Yours a very (un) civil servant…

      • @stuart: That’s just playing with numbers and definitions. When people refer to Civil Servants, they invariably refer to Public Servants collectively. Some people also include the large numbers of people who ostensibly work in private companies which were set up by the State or (quite often) ex members of Parliament etc but who only exist as a result of the business contracts they get from the State. I believe Serca is one of them. There are others.
        What IS interesting is that ~6,000,000 Brits work in the public sector, which – although some of the jobs are necessary – are economically unproductive and add no wealth to the economy.

        The last figure I saw on public sector workforce quoted the %age being about 23% of the available workforce, not the 20% that PDF claims.

      • Fair point on the cilil servant bashing.

        But as someone who worked in education and local councils (and previously DfEE), I’d vouch that there are a lot more people employed than are needed to get the job done… but so much beaurocracy that that many staff really are needed. And that – I think – is the problem.

        It’s not that the staff are useless (many do great work despite the systems).. it’s the systems that suck

        If we really wanted to save money within the civil service, I’d start by cuttiing the top-down funding that sees money going to private contractors for things that aren’t locally needed. I’d cut red tape and let the civil servants get on with things that are genuinely useful.

        As a typical example of local council daftness, I offered to clean up the local gardens here. It took three members of staff, some letters and a bunch of emails to determine that I’m not qualified to mow grass. Then more mails to get contractors booked to do the job. Then the expense of having them round. We’ve lost local lunch clubs and drop ins because of the overheads on paperwork. In my old job, we were forced to run schemes that weren’t needed in order to get in enough funding to pay for the schemes that were. And we had to pay staff to administer that.

        And don’t get me started on tendering and proposals. The local councils we worked with actually paid people to ‘bulk up’ proposals with council-speak to make them sound better. And the folks doling out cash at the funding end then paid assistants to summarise the proposals back to bullet points so they could work out what the hell the proposals were for. They also shelled out hundreds of new thousands in new desks and office chairs to meet ergonomic directives that no-one actually wanted or needed. While closing local services due to lack of budget.

        Cutting staff numbers is only one way of tackling cost – but when it comes to savings, there’s other low hanging fruit that could be taken and a lot of waste that can be eliminated without losing any jobs. And – from experience – a lot of civil servants who are just as pissed at how dumb things are, and would love the freedom to be trusted and just do their jobs well and with good judgement.

        Most of the guys I worked with went in determined to do good work and make a difference. Most (like me) left out of sheer frustration.

      • @hbird

        I suspect you have the right of it there hbird.

        I can’t remember who said it but I have heard it said that French bureaucrats spend each working day making sure they have more work to do next week, to assure their job.

        In my view the UK’s ‘crats have learned the trick and refined it into anart form.

        As you say, it is the system which allows it and therefore the system which is at fault.The only problem of course is that it is people, particularly self interested ones, who control the system.

        I like to draw the analogy with the point at which a problem becomes impossible to cure, to the temperature of fire. It reaches a high, at which effectively it cannot be controlled and consumes everything, even non-combustibles, until there is nothing left for it to burn. Only then does it become controllable. (Although this is an Illusion, it is in fact burning itself out.)I think the system we speak of here has the same traits. It has reached such a state of perfect combustion that it now cannot be changed, it has to be totally destroyed before it could then be rebuilt.

        Along with globalism, politicians, politics, finance, bankers and so on. What think you?

      • @Stuart,my slip up in linguistics,I was referring to the ! million extra public sector employees taken on by Garry in his heroic attempt to abolish the economic cycle.

  5. @JW: “…the reason a £13bn saving is irrelevant is the £95bn thrown at bank stability aka QE by Mervyn King over the same period.”

    QE is newly created money and the only connection I see between these two numbers is that QE has been mostly used to buy UK Gilts which in turn is funding govt spending through the back door, thereby allowing Osborne not to make cuts. I believe it’s the wrong policy but who am I?

    If pressed, the BoE & Osborne would admit that QE has kept UK yields at record low levels and is therefore reducing State spending on interest payments. This cannot be denied.

    • The only way this debt is going to be discharged is to write it off, let’s be honest. One day soon Merv or his successor (another Vampire Squid alumni, by the look of it!) is going to have to hit the print button, digitally create enough money to clear the debt, cut cheques to all the creditors, then start up a new (fiat, of course) currency the next morning, before the man on the street starves (or worse yet, realises that his 200 grand mortgage can now be paid off for the price of a loaf) due to the hyperinflation.

      If this is not done in a globally coordinated fashion, however, bombs will be falling all over the world before the cheques even have time to clear. TPTB know this, but would rather like to leave it until the last minute, as there is still some middle class wealth they haven’t managed to steal yet.

      • If any British Govt unleashes hyperinflation to clear *its* debts, they will be inviting violent civil unrest on an unprecedented scale, whatever the merits of doing so. I have no doubt about that.

      • First one to get the money wins in a hyper inflationary
        spiral..The banks win again in your scenario.

      • @BT – so long as they ensure that the recipients of state largess receive corresponding increases – they could get away with it……….civil unrest will only arise when the state subsidised sector does not get paid enough to eat or be housed. So daily rises flooding into the accounts of those sucking on the teat will keep them calm enough. IMHO.
        I do not think the private sector will be where any ‘uprising’ will stem from…they have jobs to lose :)

      • @Morningstar: You may be right, although I doubt even the State sector would escape the consequences of hyperinflation. Hyperinflation doesn’t last long before the economy implodes and paper money becomes worthless. Govt then spends a lot of time overprinting bank notes with three fewer zeros on, and so on.

      • @Winston Smith

        What, you really think the banks are going to consider any potential way out of this that doesn’t leave them with all the transferable wealth in hand? It’s pretty obvious that all that’s happening now is simply can kicking while TPTB get their ducks in a nice neat row – they have a dual mandate now; Stay rich and in charge. Avoid being lynched by the serfs.

        Kicking the can past the point of stupidity will, of course, ensure that the inevitable crash is 10x as bad, for all of us non-billionaires, as it would have been if they’d got on with it when things started to crumble. But they don’t care about that. We’re only ‘organic production / consumption units’ to them, and have a handy self-replicating function built in that ensures we can be replaced over time, no matter how many of us suffer a catastrophic failure due to lack of fuel and preventative maintenance.

      • @BT

        You forget, though, that paper money is just an avatar for the electronic digits in your bank account. Those can be topped up in seconds and you can spend ‘em on your card instantly, with a running tally of your balance constantly fed to your smart-phone. Technology makes hyperinflation a doable 24 hour proposition, if it’s done by design and not happen-stance.

      • @Woodgnome: Are you suggesting that if the government creates hyperinflation, it will also increase the number of noughts on my bank account balance to compensate for it? That would be a first! More likely, they’ll wheel out King again to reassure us that “it’s only a blip” and that normal levels of inflation will resume in six months. He’ll keep saying that for 3 years or until the economy implodes.

      • @BT

        If depopulation through epic civil unrest is the goal, you’re entirely correct. All I’m saying is that they don’t have to do that, unless they want it that way.

  6. Not a lot to disagree with however it was UKIP that cost Cameron 20 seats at the 2010 election with 3.1% share at the polls polling 919,546 votes (up from about 300,000 votes in 2005). This on a turnout of 65.1%. If they polled 8% on a similar turnout they would poll 2,373,022 votes and this would wipe out the Tories although UKIP may not win any seats.

    • And Camerlot knows that only too well. As the poll-gap widens, expect to hear yet more hints, mentions and so-called promises of an EU referendum as a last-ditch damage-limitation exercise.

      But that’s all it will be, damage-limitation, there will be no intention to follow through on the ‘promise’ – been there before, Dave, no trust left.

      So we’ll just keep voting UKIP until we get one – who cares if Labour wins as a result, a bit of short-term pain is worth it to get that once-in-a-lifetime chance to leave the EU. After that, we can get back to self-governing, as it should always have been.

  7. If the chaps behind Brady do turf Cameron out it begs the question – who on earth would replace him? Osborne? (stifles smile); Gove? (grin); IDS or Vague Willy? (done it before – Brits don’t like baldies as PM .. says so in Scriptures); Davis? (possibly but the faceless ones behind the throne wouldn’t have it).

    Where are the Enoch Powells, the young Norman Tebbits .. ? We are surrounded by absolutely no talent whatsoever..

  8. Cameron is in a difficult position, as predicted by Mervyn King before the last election when he said “whoever wins the election will be out of power for a generation”. King knew the depth of the mess that HE had helped to create.

    I have said before that Cameron is not a reformer by nature. So in this respect, he’s the wrong person to be running government at a time when big *real* cuts are required to balance the books and reduce The State to something reasonable in size and to reform the Welfare State. Add to this: he’s in a Coalition Govt and has limits imposed on policies. No one should ignore this. Add to this: there’s a general lack of skill and competence among his Ministers (including Osborne & May) and it’s not difficult to see why we are where we are.
    He’s trying to get through this term in office and leave himself a chance of re-election. As a result, his Govt is floundering and being drawn into, and distracted by, the side issue of phone hacking etc.

    What is the solution? I dunno except to say that Red Ed and his gang of Marxist & fascists is certainly not it!
    They will give you full-on-in-your-face socialism if elected…
    If a strong-minded reforming Tory Leader appeared who had a solid grounding in Austrian School economics, that would be the best way forward. IMHO. Any suggestions……………..?

    • Yes. I think you need to stop wasting time thinking there is a difference between any of them. None of them work for the people. If labour were in power they would be doing similar BS. The system is corrupt and be caught up in the “so called differences” each party pretends to have is playing their game

      So in this respect, he’s the wrong person to be running government at a time when big *real* cuts are required to balance the books and reduce The State to something reasonable in size and to reform the Welfare State.

      We need to reform the entire monetary/banking system and how it works. Right now as it operates it creates a system where the majority are being screwed and are little more serfs. If your mind is still stuck in “we need to balance the books and reform the welfare state” then you are only seeing the symptoms of the problem and not dealing with the root.

      • If yu knew me you wouldn’t waste time writing that. And you might also have the courtesy of using ” ” around quoted sections of what I wrote :-)
        HAND.

    • “…“whoever wins the election will be out of power for a generation”. King knew the depth of the mess that HE had helped to create.”

      He also knew his politicians. Were some to appear with integrity and conviction I suspect they would have been able to prove King wrong about yet another thing.

      “He’s trying to get through this term in office and leave himself a chance of re-election. ”

      Aint that the truth Bt and therein the problem. If Cameron were not a lying toady who is (or appears to be) utterly without principle (other, that is than the me, me, I must stay in power one) he might be capable of doing something for the good of the UK rather than himself. As it is he isn’t even doing the me, me, I bit very well either is he. His nauseating, smarmy duplicity gets my ire more than the nasty slimy Blair or twisted Brown and I didn’t think that would be possible.

      He isn’t capable of it, but if he were to actually speak the truth, mean it and act on it once or twice, there might be a hope for him.

      That is my suggestion for what it is worth.

      • @Jwoo: Cameron’s become a politician like all the others. I guess it’s inevitable that some people will like/dislike him more or less than others. For me, the most ghastly one of all was Brown, followed immediately by everybody else in Labour. Right now, it’s Milipede because he’s a bare faced liar who hasn’t got a shred of integrity or sense of guilt for the mess that he was partly responsible for creating. Whatever…

        The sad truth is that changes required in Britain to sort out its addiction to state spending and ever bigger govt are so great that no Party in office stands a cat in hells chance of surviving if they kick-start the reform process, due to the huge numbers who rely on the state for their income. And Labour have no intention of ever trying because much of the mess was created by them over the decades. IMV there is no settlement that can be negotiated. We will have to wait for the inevitable collapse.

  9. “….are the playing fields of Eton level?”
    Yes, but they don’t use the level bits, they instead play up against a fifteen foot wall. No rules as far as I know – anything goes, and there are no winners!

    • I doubt any of the current Etonian mess have ever played fives, a game requiring speed, stamina and considerable skill. Loosing sight of the ball is not a good option. Marbles and tiddlywinks more appropriate to level ground and current abilities.

  10. Not sure that an anti-cameron poll paid for by an anti-cameron newspaper has much credit, a case of “who pays the piper calls the tune” I always say when I see such “polls”. But then again I have never liked Cameron, refused to ever vote Tory again after he signed up for Lisbon and I am happy to see the rest of Torydom is now coming around to the truth. The EU is a dead parrot and we need to escape it before the corpse turns septic. Great to see Nadine Dorries on HIGNFY struggling to contain her utter contempt for Cameron.

    • @J s

      I’m not yet convinced that Ms ND isn’t just another ‘I have to push harder than the rest because I’m a female’ politician, time will tell, but HIGNFY was, is, one of the few programs that I miss having given up my TV several years ago. I even ended up not hating Hislop, how rare is that?

  11. The worst thing the voters can do is think in opposites: Left or Right.

    Running from Tory to Labour to Limp Dim to UKIP.

    If we don’t have the parties we want we need to invent them.

    The sad thing is, the blueprint is there. In Scotland. In Greece. Chuck the whole Establishment out and stop thinking any of them will save YOU.

    At present, all the mainstream political parties despise their electors. Until that is returned to them via the ballot box they will go on. Don’t let them do it.

    • Yup. Couldn’t agree more. In fact, during the local council elections a week or two back, someone hung a ‘Think! Vote For Someone Else!” banner on the fence next to the local polling station. Took the cops about 15 minutes to spot it and take it down, while asking the assembled voters if they’d seen who put it there. Wasn’t me, but I certainly agreed with the sentiment.

  12. - What about the £4 trillion public sector and state pensions black hole?
    - Lets go easy on the banks
    - The Greeks say “yes, and?” to EU/IMF threats
    - UK retail sales down because there’s no drought
    - Netanyahu’s back room deal means attack on Iran back on
    - Russia threatens NATO over missile defence
    - The Queen’s Speech brings more destruction to the constitution
    - Jury nullification
    - Lawbreaking Lansley

  13. If nobody votes then Lab get back in with a small majority on a 5% turn out.
    Guaranteed no improvement maybe even worse.
    If you vote UKIP and other Independent then No Con Lib or Lab get in. Policos genuinely interested in UK will cross the floor and help the alternative parties to become governing entities and the dross will be without a seat.
    If Con party disappear who cares? Why do we need to have a Con, Lib or Lab party?
    We don’t need a replacement for Cameroon, we need a PM who will take urgent action straight away.

    If we had no QE then because we have no surplus we cannot pay and we default on these old loans.
    QE was used to pay for gilts which had to be redeemed.
    No choice because all the extra tax was already spent by the coalition.
    There will be more QE if we do not make urgent expenditure cuts and stop giving money to Europe and Sarkies because there is currently reducing receivables and increasing debts to pay for.

  14. Pingback: HUNT: Joining up more dots in the Culture Secretary’s ‘success story’ | A diary of deception and distortion

  15. Pingback: Jeremy Hunt, the British Council, the SW Surrey nomination, and Virginia Bottomley | Sovereign Independent UK

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