OBAMA’S US UNEMPLOYMENT LIES: New data vindicate Slog’s ‘desperate unemployed’ analysis

YOU READ IT HERE FIRST…

Last February 4th, I ran a piece about a ‘fall’ in the US Labor Department’s unemployment levels – the ‘non-farm payroll data’. At the time, I wrote this:

‘Take, for example, the so-called ‘broken community’ effect. This pertains when somewhere dedicated to one business – like Detroit – goes south. Almost everyone loses their job in the region, as the American global share of car sales plummets. The outlook appears to be hopeless, so many workers simply stop looking for a job. Stop looking, and you slip off the unemployment figures. You’re still jobless, but you’re not officially jobless.’

Two months on, and last Friday the same Labor Dept revealed how 120,000 jobs were added in March. That’s well below average expectations –  the mean average prediction was 230,00 – and so more head-scratching took place in the MSM.

But there is a thing called the U6 rate. This looks beyond the official 8.2% unemployment rate, and more closely at those who’ve essentially given up looking for work….as per my ‘Detroit’ observations. This rate delivers a far more alarming figure: 14.5%.

I said back in February that the US recovery was a mirage. Now we see that the 120,000 jobs added in March represented the smallest increase since October 2011.

On January 7th last, I posted a blog headed ‘US Labor statistics offer no sign of a real recovery at all’. Therein, I suggested:

‘The picture that emerges is one of seasonal gains in employment, and very little more. But there is also an undercurrent of fiddling too. Not mentioned in the headline figures, for example, is a whopping group (2.5 million) described as ‘marginally attached to the economy’. Actually, they too are unemployed folks, but kind of off-balance sheet to use the common spin vernacular. They are defined thus: (my italics)….2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in December, little different from a year earlier.  These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.’

The entire story of these data – from about November 2011 onwards – is one of a White House grasping at straws, while using every trick in the book to suggest that the economy is back on the up….so that Barack Obama can get re-elected. But the economy is, after a gap in QE for some time now, flatlining. In many ways, Ben Bernanke holds the eventual result of the contest in his hands.

The Slog has said several times that the 2012 Presidential Election is a race against time rather than between two candidates. My gut tells me that the Obamite position is on a knife-edge here: if the real economic state – and the European meltdown – are well onto the radar by August, then this isn’t going to be the one-horse race many expect.

But oh, if only I felt Mitt Romney might be any better than Obama…

 

40 thoughts on “OBAMA’S US UNEMPLOYMENT LIES: New data vindicate Slog’s ‘desperate unemployed’ analysis

  1. Put another way, John, the figures are total bloody fiction. It’s Alice in Wonderland stuff constructed for the consumption of the MSM who can’t be bothered to get off their fat, overpaid arses to knock on a door, put down some shoe leather and demand a straight answer to a very simple question. It as far easier to publish a PR handout with no nasty come-backs. Lazy journalism…and accuation which is unlikely to be placed at your door.

    • @SITC
      Think it might be fear in the MSM. They are scared by the threat of losing their jobs if the get near the truth, all of them are behaving in the same manner, they must be being manipulated somehow by Govt.
      I feel quite informed, The Slog hits the nail on the head so to speak, but, imagine when they get around to censoring JW, which they will in time, they will only have “Good news” in the MSM, we won’t have a clue what’s going on.
      Governments are gradually tightening the noose around free speech with the various legislation already in place and what’s coming in the future will choke it off completely.
      Our only hope is that a crash of such enormity takes place that it removes their ability to legislate more and gives us back some of the freedoms we have lost in the last decade.

      • Many elements are at work here. On the one hand the MSM cannot afford to lose what little advertising revenues it has left and the in-house accountants will not tolerate signs of bravery which might upset their bean counting. But fundamentally, the oddball seekers of what passed as truth in the old Fleet Street have now been replaced by graduates or ill-trained media college churn outs who wouldn’t recognised a good story if it bit them on their arse. There are a few decent commentators left and JW has identified them in various posts. There is also plenty of low hanging fruit in the media world, but most of it is cheap and trivial. Oh! and by the way, the coming crash will be enormous and take the MSN to its grave

      • @kfc & @Sitc: Agree totally.
        I will add this: what journo would be granted an exclusive interview or be allowed to ask a question at a political press conference if he had a track record of writing articles that blew the political elites out of the water over their lies? Also recall that a BBC senior journo casually mentioned having lunch at a Park Lane restaurant with a senior politician some while ago. It’s become a very cosy club. All that would disappear if journos told the truth.

      • @BT

        With regard to telling the truth, asking the right questions – penetrating questions – and all that jazz, I give you extracts from a recent article by Eva Herman. In it she takes a swipe at “Der Spiegel” – a German magazine that gets many links to its English language pages from here, The Slog. Presumably, the Sloggers linking to it are of the opinion that “Der Spiegel” is a rag to be taken seriously! First, some notes on Eva:

        “Eva Herman is a journalist, writer and presenter. For 18 years she was a newscaster on ‘Tagesschau’ for the ARD. From 1997 to 2007 she hosted, along with numerous ARD broadcasts, her own monthly NDR Talkshow ‘Herman and Titjen’ and for seven years the cult quiz show ‘Wer hat´s gesehen?’ (Who saw it?)

        Eva Herman was voted several times as the most popular television host in Germany, she is the author of several books. Her bestseller `Dann kamst Du´ (Then Came You) was filmed by the ARD. With the book `Das Eva-Prinzip´ (The Eva-Principle) (2006), she stormed the bestseller lists immediately after its publication and ignited a debate across Germany. Her subsequent non-fiction buch `Das Prinzip Arche Noah´ (The Principle of Noah’s Ark) caused an uproar: Her statements were distorted by the media, Eva Herman lost her NDR job, an appearance with the ZDF broadcast Kerner ended with another scandal. Eva Herman lives in Hamburg, is married and has one son.”

        So far so good – we now know we are dealing with a person would be reckoned as “having a pair” if she wasn’t female! So, what did she write of the venerable “Der Spiegel”:

        “I stopped buying “Der Spiegel” a long time ago. I can get propaganda and brainwashing for free every day on the net. A friend recently sent me an interview conducted by the Hamburg “sorrow magazine”: with the European Greens Daniel Cohn-Bendit. How good it was that I didn’t spend a cent on it: the effusions of this almost seventy year old pressed onto four pages sounded dangerously infantile, as per the motto: was there anything at all?
        (…)
        “True, we ’68ers have radically destroyed the value structure of Germany, but that was yesterday: Today we are smarter – and ‘wiser with age’!” The title of the interview with Cohn-Bendit could have read something like that. With regard to the shattered remains that represent our country today, it is particularly distasteful to note the trivialisations by the journalists Mark Feldkirchen and Rene Pfister in this interview: “How many women were you in bed with at that time”? But what do you really expect? These mass media writers seem, like many of their colleagues, to even be in complete agreement with the present state of our society: that one can only come through unharmed when one is politically correct, one advocates the euro, feminism, early sexualisation and multiculturalism, just as one had to consider socialism in the GDR as good, in order to survive.
        (…)
        This Spiegel interview serves as further evidence that the steady collapse of the Spiegels sales figures are not due to chance. The headline: “Now comes the end-game” is about the only thing you can really sign up to after reading this article.”

        Just recently I’ve come across many references to the drop in circulation (and thus income) of “Spiegel”. Allegedly, a couple of weeks ago they had their worst weekly sales figure ever. ‘Stern’ and ‘Focus’ are not yet in the same dire straits, but ‘Stern’ is heading there, with ‘Focus’ sort of holding its own. For some people the big question is not, “Is Spiegel going bust?”, but “When do you reckon Spiegel will be gone”?

        As to why Eva had a dig at this article, it was because the Spiegel interviewers chose not to address a certain matter in which Cohn-Bendit is well implicated – a couple of samples:

        “Of the paedophilic tendencies of the Green politician, which have provably been floating around the web for years, the journalists only wanted to know little.”

        “About the much later broadcast TV interview of the former station antenna 2, the present-day France 2, in which he enjoyably repeated his paedophilic arousal, not a word. There it says, among other things: “You know, when a little five and a half year old girl begins to undress herself, that’s fantastic. It is fantastic because it’s a game, an incredibly erotic game.” On the present day efforts of the Greens to make paedophilia punishment-free, you won’t read about that either.”

        And much more besides – unfortunately it’s a very long article. This is the link to it, with a piccie of Cohn-Bendit’s ugly mush.

        http://info.kopp-verlag.de/hintergruende/deutschland/eva-herman/die-zerstoerung-deutschlands-durch-die-gruenen-am-ende-alles-nur-ein-irrtum-.html

      • @VJ: Thanks for that. From the interview: “one can only come through unharmed when one is politically correct, one advocates the euro, feminism, early sexualisation and multiculturalism, just as one had to consider socialism in the GDR as good, in order to survive.

        Doesn’t this just about sum it up? Few people agree with me but I see no difference in Britain, where progressive Left PC propaganda is crawling its way through every nook and cranny of society (including government), to the point where anybody who stands in the way is now described as eccentric, extreme, maverick or far right.

        On Spiegel…I have always seen it as following the same path as The Economist and the FT. They used to be flag wavers for sound economics and all that good stuff. Nowadays they’ve turned Left, adopted PC and follow the same old same old ideas of Left economists mostly ‘educated’ at the LSE.

  2. Obama is just doing what British politicians do all the time: twist and manipulate stats and lie, lie and lie. What appears to be happening in the US is mirrored in the UK. Deleveraging is taking place and in turn this is grinding down employment levels to a point somewhere prior to the unsustainble credit bubble. The bubble economy is being deflated. Nobody knows where this will end, nor is it clear whether the economies will ever recover to pre-crash levels. I suspect not for a long time and will need to be organic growth, not debt based. That means that the US & UK will have to get used to high levels of unemployment for some time. Another way of describing this is that we have excessive populations which our economies cannot support.

    • @BT;
      The high levels of unemployment are going to be the issue. I think Govt. is already running scared on that one, because I believe that is a trend that has a “tipping point” a point of no return and there will be no welfare, no state help at all, and as I have said before “Nothing stirs a Nation like a hungry belly”
      There’s big trouble ahead with this issue.

      • @kfc: Quite so. It also explains why elites are desperate to re-inflate the credit bubble and raise taxes on savers and working people – anything but face the reality of the mess they’ve created.

    • VJ
      I am actually on the record several times as saying that Der Spiegel is, much of the time, simply a repository for Chancellery spin.

  3. “But oh, if only I felt Mitt Romney might be any better than Obama…”
    Speaking from Minnesota, I am aware that Ron Paul is garnering far more delegates on the Republican side than the MSM is reporting. As with everything else in this country today, all the official numbers are lies and half-truths. When push comes to shove however, this will certainly lead to a brokered convention at least, with the additional possibility for Paul to emerge as the actual Republican candidate. By the time the election rolls around, conditions will be so obviously bad, with an additional $1.5 trillion added to the national debt and all signs pointing all around at the Federal Reserve system itself, that he could very well win the national election.

    Along those lines, given that Romney not only can’t obtain a majority of neither popular votes nor delegates among Republicans, he certainly will not receive a single vote from the largest voting block in America: the Independents — also currently comprising Paul’s largest constituency.

    Also take into account, that no matter what sort of support the Democrats currently claim, their base was severely eroded as voters (such as myself) discovered they’d been hoodwinked by Obama –the Bush surrogate– and were thereby turned into staunch libertarians, if only because it became so blatant obvious that there were no longer two different political parties in the U.S. You’d be surprised at the number who have woken up to that fact.

    Personally, I expect a sea-change as the country is overtaken by the inevitable.

    • As much as I wish Ron Paul would win the Republican nomination, let’s face it, there is no conspiracy to suppress the real delegate count.

      Things for the masses in the United States have not fallen so far, so fast, that the populace has lost all trust in the mainstream of the mainstream parties. This is what will have to happen for a candidate like Ron Paul to have any chance at the nomination.

      This has not happened yet.

  4. Oven Mitt Romney is 2-1 with the bookies. I see no value. Clearly Billy Hill shares your view that this is hardly a done deal for BO.

    12-1 that the Lib Dems get ten or fewer seats at the next election looks more interesting.

    • Intrade gives Obama a 60.6 per cent nchance of winning. That 3-5 on with Romney at 5-2 against. It’s not a done deal and it will close but try as I might I can’t see Obama losing it to Romney. The republicans have painted themselves into a corner as a minority party of plutocrats, the angry white working class males and evangelicals. That ain’t no majority and indeed its a shrinking minority wirh no blacks, no hispanics and precious few Asians. Until they widen their base the Republicans will struggle to win the Presidency.

      The present Republican party was built by Nixon with his ‘southern strategy’ courtesy of Kevin Philips in 1968 and consolidated by Reagan in 1980 when he got the white workingclass Catholic vote. Unfortunately, today’s demographics are wildly different. Those over 70 collecting social security are over 80 per cent white. Those in grade one primary school are less than 50 percent white. The times they are a changing. Its adapt or die.

      With respset to the U-3, U-6 unemployment series, U-3 was introduced by Clinton. U-6 was used from 1980 to about 1994 and is still the OECD standard. The much wider figure published by shadow stats at about 22 per cent was the method used from 1960 to 1980.

      http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

      • Remember, in the US political system, presidents are elected by the states through the electoral college, not by the total popular vote. In most states, a candidate who wins a state by one vote wins all of that state’s electoral college votes.

        Looking at the election from the perspective of the electoral college and the likely breakdown of the states, the only way Obama can lose is if something catastrophic happens between now and November.

        Therefore, the Obama goal has to be simply to keep the wheels from falling off the cart before the election.

      • Well I remember when he was first elected I was in California. I thought he was elected because he was a paid up member of the Mother’s Union, as I am sure you agree is so. I went to a rather dreary cocktail party full of ‘right on ghastly liberal types’ who vote Democrat and are stinking rich, thus they can afford it (bit like here and members of the Labour Party). I was asked, as an Englishman what I thought – bad idea – so I declared that as a God fearing Tory (which I am !) I thought they had merely elected a black Tony Blair – all things to all men and nay a principle in sight. I fear I was correct.

  5. This shows that the elite in the US are the same as in Europe, totally out of touch with the man on the street. Everyone that I know here in the USA is aware of the dismal state of our economy.

    The spin coming out of D.C. is amazing.

    Most baby boomers will have a difficult time finding employment after dropping out of the work force for an extended period of time, if they haven’t already, they will soon go through their savings and for the rest of their years be dependent on the bankrupt U.S.A. for their support.

    But green shoots are springing up everywhere according to the powers that be. We are just experiencing some unexpected “headwinds”. Soon all will be well if your vote for Obama in November.

    • To hell with green shoots, let’s go shoot some greens.
      Everyone go on a vegetarian diet right now. Eat vegetarians: you know it makes sense.

  6. “But oh, if only I felt Mitt Romney might be any better than Obama”

    They are very different. The former wants to cut spending, shrink government and more. I suppose it depends on how much spending a government should do. Obama has failed in every program he tried.

    • From what I have read Romney’s plans for cutting spending and shrinking government are exactly the same as Cameron’s in the UK, that is not to actually reverse anything, just slow the expansion down until GROWTH makes us all rich again.

      • Romney,Obama,Cameron, Blair Whats the difference, they all have the same boss!!

        Im sick of all the lies,
        ROLL ON THE MASS ARRESTS. freedom reigns.us *alerts*

  7. Re: Your last sentence. But oh! If only you could understand what the former stood for: and what he was, is. Very few here know because he does not want his past to emerge. Unlike his challenger. Now on which side are you? For openness or more Merkel-lite?

  8. It’s no different here – Bliar massaged the figures to remove the long-term unemployed from the register. Previous administrations (Thatcher & Major) tried these tricks too – there’s nothing new about!

  9. Their unemployment benefits only last for 99 weeks before people drop off the official statistics and the increase in part-time and under-employed (the classic Phd flipping burgers scenario) inflates the numbers.

    With around 50 million people needing food stamps to get by, I think that says it all. How the Americans can tolerate that level of poverty in the so called greatest country on earth is anyone’s guess. Where’s the American Dream in that?

    We do the same here in the UK massaging the figures with things like the current back to work programme. You get companies like A4e, recently in the MSM for fraud, G4S the security (joke!) company and Ingeus, owned by the wife of ex Aussie PM Kevin Rudd, taking people out of the official jobless figures, while the corporates line their pockets with taxpayers’ money!

    • Magnum: “Where’s the American Dream in that?”

      As the great George Carlin said: “The reason they call it the American Dream is that you have to be asleep to believe in it.”

  10. AS SAID ABOVE THE TWO PARTIES IN THE USA (sorry) are the same party and have been for some time,what amazes me is why people even turn out to vote, yet they turn out in there thousands to cheer these muppets on,what is the point? as for labour numbers again best to totely ignore all of it and everything else they tell you,its bullshit,politicians are for the most villians.

  11. It’s a guarantee that these figures will improve as the year goes on. After the
    election they may worsen, due to the Eurozone, China downturn or the global economy not doing as well as expected. Funny how things pan out.

  12. This race is Obama’s to lose. The incumbent always has the advantage.

    Mitt Romney will be the nominee it’s a done deal. You read it here.

    Ron Paul will NOT run as a third party candidate because it will finish his son’s career in the Republican party if he does run.

    If the Eurocrats cannot hold the European union together until November, Obama will not win reelection.

  13. Ever wonder if the Republicans don’t want to win the election. Given it would mean their president presiding over the wholesale financial destruction of the american people.

    Perhaps they are giving Barry a pass to hang himself and the democrats when the inevitable happens around Christmas/new year?

    I’d prefer it that way TBH. He’s been spectacularly shit so far and it would be nice to see him saddled with the title of “worst president in history”, given that these sub-human turds are always obsessed with their “legacies”.

  14. O/T

    Am I have a revelation here that the long term political future of the London based system will be simple to Parties, Red and Blue, distinguishable only by way of their spin, soundbites and MSM manipulation.

    Same basic programmes, same basic politics, same financial backers. The LibDums will effectively be no more and will be absorbed into Red and Blue. There will be a Green outlier Party but just that, for Guardian readers.

    The complexity of the political systems of Scotland, Wales and N Ireland mean that they will separate from England as the Reds and Blues really want, or at least their backers do.

  15. Even if America’s economic statistics are the worlds’ most politicised, ( which they surely are), the overall trend is clear.
    They are certainly enjoying a degree of growth in both employment and overall economic activity. We’re not. Nor is the Euro-zone.

    Obama may be in the pockets of the bankers, but Romney may as well be glued to their navels. The republicans’ latest budget plan is the biggest giveaway to the rich in electoral history, while the budget is supposed to be balanced by closing tax loopholes, NONE of which are specified. They’re the sinlge most irresponsible party in the western world. They make Silvio Berlusconis lot look like sober technocrats.

    • PJ
      Not so, sorry: the Americans are enjoying a growth in hopelessness, which the Ministry of Truth, Labor & Freedom records as ‘former hopeless person who now has job’.
      The reality is ‘former hopeless person who is now homeless person’.

  16. Pingback: OBAMA’S US UNEMPLOYMENT LIES: New data vindicate Slog’s ‘desperate unemployed’ analysis | Zumoit

  17. Pingback: Dumb, dumber, and employment statistics | A diary of deception and distortion

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