EXCLUSIVE: WHY THESE FIRST GREEK BAILOUT ‘MONIES’ ARE A MYTH

“Watch my right hand very, very closely..”

130 billion euro EFSF sits unused as Draghi manufactures the 66 billion in ‘non-cash bonds’ earmarked for Athens.

Regler banks on the markets to supply the rest.

As I retired to bed last night (funny how everything official in the EU happens while we’re all asleep) I had my doubts. Why would even the headcases in Brussels hand over the rest of the money to a crooked cadaver? And further, it would be real money this time – not paper leveraged in a bazooka-firewall, or some other blended metaphor….would they really release it? Had the planned default group given up?

Well, as always with the eurozone, the Devil is in the detail. Or rather, in this case, the con is in the soundbites. As a result of last night, precisely 5.9 billion has been released ‘from the EFSF’ to cover March. That can be added to the 35.9bn ‘approved’ last Friday – delivered in order to avoid sure default on March 20th: so, sorry Felix old top – you were wrong. That means the Greeks now have 40 billion; but they will be told, not asked, how to use it. And it isn’t real money. It isn’t even budgeted EFSF money.

The ‘money’ has been creaed by the ECB. No, you’re not seeing things: the plan is to go to the markets for the rest. The EU’s FinMin have yet to spend a brass farthing of the real money: they hope that the 130 bn of real EFSF money may not be needed.

Klaus Regler, the world’s most incompetent fundraiser, announced triumphantly last night that 66bn euros in EFSF bonds had already been obtained. Funny that, I thought: when did that get raised? The answer is, it didn’t. Again in the small print, ‘Last week, the fund issued 66 billion euros in bonds and bills without tapping the markets, comprised of [sic] 35 billion euros in European Central Bank collateral enhancements, and 31 billion euros in accrued interest and debt swap sweeteners.’ Aah, right: they borrowed it from themselves. That’s handy. The ECB describes the sum as ‘bonds issued on a non-cash basis’. Doncha love it? I didn’t know money could get any more unreal, but apparently it can.

What the Athens Government has right now is not even enough to start the bank recapitalisation there. Last night, Evangelo Venizelos smiled and said he was expecting to receive the 25 billion euros for that “soon”. Given that the Venizelos calendar works on a 1:50 quotient, that could mean anything: “within hours” during late January, for example, meant “three weeks from now”. But that won’t be real money, it will be Draghi-created accountancy money. Another 3.3 and 5.5 bn in April and May respectively will then follow. Allegedly.

I don’t think the Athens Government will ever get it.

Add up the numbers. 66 billion euros have been created by printing and swapping oddly un-cashlike bonds that no member State’s sovereign budget has yet been raided to get.

35.9 bn went out last Friday. 5.9 bn went out yesterday. 25 bn will follow ‘soon’. That is almost exactly 66 billion euros.

All that funny money may have gone before the month is out. At this point, Regler the House Idiot says, “We will go frequently to the market. And next week alone we may go three times to issue short-term bills, to issue five-year bonds and possibly also issue 25- or 30-year bonds. Given these amounts, the EFSF will be in the market from now on a very regular basis.”

The bloke’s tonto. Either that, or the folks who might buy them are tonto. Me, I think the soubriquet fits Klaus Regler rather more snugly.

Suppose the EFSF’s valiant entry into the markets goes phuurt next week – what then? Well, the end of that week is Friday March 23rd.

The bottom line is this: the ‘money’ being given to Greece has not changed the size of the EFSF by one cent. It is still 130 bn euros, and it is still sitting there, set aside (probably) for Italy’s use. The ‘bailout’ monies are artificially leveraged, created and printed funny-money. If Greece defaults Friday week, it can be written off with the minimum of pain.

Mario Draghi and his Troika chums have pulled off the most amazing illusion here. Christine Lagarde’s IMF, you may also note, has yet to cough up anything in this ‘bailout’.

But now, the cat’s out of the bag. Will the markets notice? Let’s wait and see.

 

 

 

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92 Comments

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92 Responses to EXCLUSIVE: WHY THESE FIRST GREEK BAILOUT ‘MONIES’ ARE A MYTH

  1. Saloon-door

    Well yes , I have said often enough that Super Mario is dancing round the lot of them . And nimble feet he has too .

  2. Surely giving ethereal money to Greece indicates they know it is
    a gonner and it is all window dressing for the peasants.

    23rd perhaps is more right than wrong and default is more certain than not.

    The Hellenic bonds on railways etc is the clincher. Just when, is when the right people in sufficient numbers realise what is happening and Greece will avalanche into the sea creating a sunami in the most unlikely places.

  3. Whatever happened with that killer find that Tyler Durden on ZH published on Saturday eve ? ‘The Greek €107 Billion Contingent Liability Gorilla Exposed’
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-%E2%82%AC107-billion-contingent-liability-gorilla-exposed

    Had this already been accounted for or previously identified and therefore was not new debt ?

    • Confused.eu

      It’s still there, and like the Gorilla (or elephant)in the room, no-one is talking about it. Just as no-one is talking about the “bailout” leaving Greece €30bn MORE in debt; Just as no-one has yet cottoned on to the fact that this is not actually a done deal; Just as no-one has really yet nailed the fact that this money suddenly slushing around the system is a) inflationary and b) not going anywhere near a real economy; Just as no-one is mentioning the retroactive clauses applied by Greece on their bonds; Just as no-one is talking about the removal of the ECB from any haircut: the last two having HUGE implications for sovreigns seeking to borrow on what we used to call the “open market”

      • Bankrupt Taxpayer

        Quite right. But MSM are providing EU elites with plenty of free air time to spout their lies live on TV News and when spokesmen aren’t available, they read out Press Statements. Done deal. End of. At least for this week…

    • Bankrupt Taxpayer

      ZH’s article is as confusing as EU public statements.

      The ZH title is: “The Greek €107 Billion Contingent Liability Gorilla Exposed” but the body refers to it as being $107 billion.

      They’re not the same thing. €1 = $1.314 (approx).

      If ZH is talking about $107 billion then it becomes €81.4 billion.
      If ZH is talking about €107 billion, then it becomes $140.5 billion.

      • Kostis

        its in dollars because if you go into the article you will the breakdown mark grant has done and the sum is in dollars

      • Bankrupt Taxpayer

        Yes thanks, I saw that but when I read it I found it hard to believe that ZH would make such a simple error, so I assumed there was some other amount that just happened also to be “107″ – one expressed in USD and the other expressed in EUR. Maybe there is and nobody’s noticed it yet!

      • Bankrupt Taxpayer

        Addendum: I hope ZH also noticed that a handful of those bonds on the ISDA Submitted List are denominated in Jap yen, not EUR or USD.

  4. Tristram

    This is a dance of death. A long drawn out one. But nevertheless the patient is dying and ought to be left to die in peace. This debt reshuffling, and sleight of hand along with misleading statements only makes matters worse for the rest of the EU.
    I wonder is the numpties responsible are watching Niall Ferguson’s programme about China? They need to in order to see how the real world outside La La Land EU is changing fast.

    • Sussexwino

      Never a truer word Tristram, “a dance of death” it surely is….The lines between comedy and tragedy are getting blurred.

    • Bankrupt Taxpayer

      It seems to me the purpose of all these confusing and muddled statements coming out of the EU elites about this unprecedented ponzi scheme is to deliberately mislead MSM and the EU electorates, to hide the fact that the ECB is printing money like there’s no tomorrow and inflation will follow down the track. I have zero doubt that Merkel is well aware of this. She already has form as a liar and double-dealer.

      • Yes, I agree about Merkel, I said a while ago I believed she was complicit.
        With all the corruption between Greece and Germany, makes you wonder how deep it runs, doesn’t it?
        Is this the underlying reason for the determination of the few to keep The Dream alive?
        They are all in it up to their necks?

  5. David

    John, I continue to be gratreful that you work out this stuff for us! It would be impossible for most people to understand what is going on.

    Meanwhile, the BBC continues to declare that Greece ‘wins’ a debt writedown. What utter tosh and a complete perversion of the reality of the matter.

    • David, the MSM are like the Greek politicians, bought and paid for.
      I have long given up on televised news, as I lived in fear I would thow a brick throught the screen before too long if I didn’t.

      • David

        Yes, I am completely with you there re the brick-throwing risk! And, yes, the only free media are those like JW and others.

  6. Saloon-door

    Greece is still just the smoke-screen . Once Spain and Italy go into full recession the sparks will fly , as someone pointed out thats what the EFSF will need the spondoolies for . Contracting GDP ‘s do not rhyme with deficit or debt reduction . The Euro will strangle the Southern countries to death . The question is WHEN ?, not if .

    • Bankrupt Taxpayer

      Yeahbut …the strangulation risk could be reduced IF the EU experiences some GDP growth (statistical, not real you understand!). MSM is already doing its duty by reporting that the US is recovering slowly but surely and they wheeled out a complete buffoon on Sky News last night who claimed that this is how the world recovered from the last recession: US growth.

      So the elites’ message is that the worst is now over, Greece is saved and recession is finally coming to an end. You know it’s true because MSM says it is.

    • richy

      The Italians hopefully “can see more sense” to the dangers (I hope so)..and not get into a strangled chronic debt recession now that Greece is in. Remember, the Italian debt make up is somewhat different to the others.

    • This mornings early raids and arrests are being reported on Sky but NO names being mentioned

      • Richard G

        DT and Indy both have articles naming RB & CB
        I did not comment I think in DT relating to apparently “predudicial information” now in public domain courtesy of “Ackers of the Yard” at Leveson

      • Richard G

        from the “Met’s” web site
        Details of the arrests are as follows:

        A 49 year old man was arrested at his home address in Oxfordshire and is being interviewed at a Buckinghamshire Police Station.

        A 43 year old woman was arrested at her home address in Oxfordshire and is being interviewed at an Oxfordshire police station.

        A 39 year old man was arrested at his home address in Hampshire and is being interviewed at a South West London police station.

        A 46 year old man was arrested at his home address in West London and is being interviewed at a central London police station.

        A 38 year old man was arrested at his home address in Hertfordshire and is being interviewed at a central London police station.

        A 48 year old man was arrested at a business address in East London and is being interviewed at an East London police station

    • C777

      One of these people has information on the big players.
      If not them then the next lot.
      Someone will sing like a canary eventually.

      • “Someone will sing like a canary eventually.”
        Mmmm, doubt that very much, more like granted immunity from prosecution for keeping quiet.

      • Bankrupt Taxpayer

        Maybe…but don’t ignore the significance of the Attorney General’s new inquiry into whether comments made to the Leveson Inquiry by Met Police Dep Comm Sue Akers may prejudice future prosecutions. I cannot believe she made those comments without knowing their significance.

  7. mantrid

    eurobailout short version:

    1. banks deposit junk bonds at ECB as collateral and borrow printed money from it (LTRO)
    2. ECB “buys” bonds from EFSF and “pays” them with deposited collateral (repo)
    3. EFSF pledges to transfer “funds” to Greece.
    4. when Greece defaults, ECB will be legal owner of collateral junk that banks had deposited there.
    5. but that was rehypothecated to EFSF, so EFSF owns the junk legally now
    6. EFSF can now transfer to Greece its own junk bonds as bailout.
    7. Greece has effectively bailed itself out at this point

  8. Sebastian Weetabix

    JW, all money is ethereal. As J.P. Morgan once put it, “gold is money, everything else is just credit.” The money Draghi just created is no funnier than the stuff the bank creates in a computer when you take out a mortgage. All that is required is enough people continue to believe in it. Since this ESM/EFSF is going to be written off anyway when times are convenient, why not just conjure it out of thin air?

    • MaxC

      UK banknotes have this promise printed on them …”I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of (x) pounds. Andrew Bailey, Chief Cashier, Bank of England.”
      When we consider how he might actually pay the bearer we see how silly the promise is.
      It’s all down to belief and trust. And when that trust is abused, the whole edifice comes tumbling down.

      • SmacA

        MaxC
        It’s absolutely guaranteed he will pay you the sum of x pounds. Just in new banknotes. That’s all it means.

        The belief and trust, is just the nice side, the darker side of our system is one of threat. I.e. imprisonment for not paying fines and taxes in this funny money.

      • It just means that if you take a pound to the Bank of England and demand the pay you for it that they will – with a pound.

  9. Saloon-door

    @ mantrid .. nice sequence BUT I’m not sure about step 2 ..collateral isn’t cash , thats just the point .

  10. Everyone, 11.45
    MSM aren’t picking this or the Tyler Durden gorilla up. And now the Brooks arrests are distracting folks even more.
    Funny old world….

    • An MSM pick-up would scare the horses….including Rebekah’s. And on the opening day of the Chelteham Festival. Now that’s not cricket is it?

    • pat

      I dont think they will John. As far as all are concerned greece got its bailout money and I guess the March 23 date is no longer going to happen. Your sources for this date were just not as powerful as they hoped.

      This can kicking it seems can go on for a long time, and yes I know next up portugal and Spain but they will find a way to kick the can.

      I was never sure about the March date as I have wondered if this debt crisis is a cover to strip countries off their sovereignty and create a central european govt. Papers are reporting today that tax inspectors and others from France and Germany are on their way to Greece.

      I am sure you have heard about one world govt and that eventually the dollar will collapse and we will move to a single or basket of currencies used by all. Never knew what to make of it, but it is starting to look real. Removing individual countries of their sovereignty and replacing key roles tax, police etc with foreign workers is all part of that.

      Once individual countries finances are managed by a central org and that org is sending out checks to police etc well I think we know how that will all work. Many will be living as slaves and those in charge to keep the slaves in line will be getting paid and taking orders from a central command system.

      I know it sounds crazy, but after watching everything going on I am not so sure.

      • Atreides

        Pat, I think you have I point, although I don’t believe in the NWO stuff, because they assume collective entities with a much higher degree of cohesion and intelligence than possible (think about what happened to entities with aspirations for world domination in history).
        IMO the EU is already dead, just like the Soviet Union: what we experience is a Franco-German core trying to assert itself and create a sphere of satellite states (just like the short-lived CIS after the breakup of the USSR).
        It will fail, not due to Spain or Italy et al. but only if the Franco-German alliance falters. What would be the events leading to such a breakup?
        I can only speculate, but in the meantime (until at least the French elections), I believe the spectre of the EU will appear to those expecting to see it.

      • David

        Pat….I too have wondered at times how the transformation to a so-called one world government would work. And yet, here we are…not too far away from what might be seen as ‘reasonable’ calls for a reset of the system – a new single currency for all…..hmm. In the end, of course, I don’t think it would work at all – the implementation of a single currency that is. Rather, it is more likely to be the pretext for enough self interest, by certain countries, and blocks of countries that, eventually, it all leads to war.

      • Bankrupt Taxpayer

        @pat: “…I have wondered if this debt crisis is a cover to strip countries off their sovereignty and create a central european govt”

        I’m not sure the financial crises was created to facilitate the creation of a central European govt (although I don’t totally dismiss that possibility), but it is certainly being used to progress it, hence the FiskalPact. But as we almost certainly know, full fiscal union – including the need for fiscal transfers, Euro Bonds etc – will be very difficult to implement across 27 member countries.

      • MaxC

        With you on the one world currency thought.
        For all my life, however, the good ol’ US dollar has been the currency that was accepted everywhere, when all else fails, in the most God-forsaken corners of the world. I can’t really see the USA permitting any other currency, particularly the Euro, becoming the de facto world currency. The almighty dollar (with its motif of an eye on top of a pyramid) is where I’d place my bet – if I had any money.

      • “Once individual countries finances are managed by a central org and that org is sending out checks to police etc well I think we know how that will all work.”

        That is the whole idea to centralise the lot to Brussel sprouts – Dominique Strauss-Kahn gave a lecture at the Cambridge Union Society last Friday and he said that Fiscal Union is a must for Europe to work .
        A very interesting long lecture but worth a listen
        http://www.cus.org/connect/speaker-events/2012/dominique-strauss-kahn

      • Bill Casso

        Pat I think a simpler answer is that the Eurocrats discovered that the bus they are attempting to drive doesn’t have a reverse gear. The rest of the trip has them bumbling along, always moving forward like a shark must do to stay alive. So it’s quite simple when you stop and think of a shark driving a bus then it becomes much clearer. I hope this helps.

  11. 12.05 Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, is speaking in Paris, and says there are “continued signs of stabilisation” in the eurozone economy, and that countries should use this phase to “make further progress on economic reform”. Surreal! You just couldn’t make it up

  12. singjim

    I still think we are witnessing the war between Wall street and the Euro.
    Maybe we should not be so quick to support Wall street in our effort to escape the stupidity of the EU. All these variations are battles along the progress of the war. Mario is fighting well. I would still like to see Europe survive Wall street and we sort out the EU as we get a chance.
    Meanwhile may God help the Greek people.

    Better news is that Cameroon has been extradited to US so how quick can we have an election please?

    • Bankrupt Taxpayer

      We may wish for a different outcome, but only yesterday I realised that we are witnessing a big battle: The EU Elites -vs- The Markets. And quite obviously The Elites are angry that The Markets have exposed their giant Euro ponzi scheme.

      If the Elites win, one of many corrupt actions they take is to neutralise the ratings agencies and replace them with their own versions who will dance to the Brussels tunes. When Brussels fully gets its hands around the neck of the free markets, we will have the new fascism that is slowly descending upon us. Then we’ll see statistics of rising tractor production while the populations are impoverished.

    • Supposing there is such a war, on which side is Mario Draghi fighting?

      • Bankrupt Taxpayer

        @Börjesson: Draghi’s now with the EU elites for sure. As a man who worked for GS, he knows how the markets operate, so he plans his actions accordingly.
        Controlling the financial markets and other big money corps has always been a funadamental part of fascist economic ideology. Hence Mussolini’s claim under his dictatorship that Italy was a “Corporate State”. It is this important characteristic of fascism that confuses many people and causes them to think that fascism is Right-wing. It is not, it is full-on-in-your-face socialism. This Mises essay explains much of the facist modus operandi: http://flyto.zapto.org/Misc/Mises-The-Vampire-Economy-Italy,Germany-and-US.pdf

        Enjoy :-)

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  14. Lorenza

    That’s one of the times i am glad my IQ isn’t that high.I can’t understand “air money”.But I can understand the game behind a possible certain past default.Ever since the very first coin showed up on the face of this earth,it’s the same old game.

    All jokes aside: Can please someone enlighten me? Did Greece default or not?Thank you in advance

    • Bankrupt Taxpayer

      @Lorenza: “Did Greece default or not?”

      Yes of course it did. Whilst the Greek & EU elites can argue that a voluntary haircut was not a default – even though the investors had little choice – they cannot argue that invoking a CAC was not a default, whatever fancy name they choose to give it.

  15. Pingback: John Ward – EXCLUSIVE – Why These First Greek Bailotu “Monies” Are A Myth – 13 March 2012 | Lucas 2012 Infos

  16. Saloon-door

    @ Lorenza .. yes Greece has now technically defaulted since part of the retructuring deal involved ‘ unwilling’ lenders who didn’t sign up to the deal involving other bond-holders . That is the moment a ‘restructuring ‘ with no CDS Trigger becomes a default that sets in motion the ‘protection ‘ a CDS is supposed to grant .

    • Lorenza

      One more question please.
      How possible is a return to the old currency? And in how much time?Are there any speculations or updates regarding the drachma?

      • Lorenza

        From what I have read in various article the consensus seems to be that if Greece reverted to the drachma it could lead to a lot of short term pain, but if things stay the same it would mean dragging out the agony for probably 10 years at least. Also there would be less chance of you getting your democracy back & sorting out the political mess & holding people responsible for it. This last bit is my personal opinion: with the drachma option, perhaps the Greeks could find a common sense of purpose instead of the present situation, where everybody is divided & misinformed. Of course this is easy for me to say, I just wish you all well.

      • Lorenza

        According to local sources and despite meanful comments: local economists say that if we stay in the EZ it will take like 40 years to repay the debt,that means my children and their children in debt.
        This is not an appealing option.Regardless the fact the debt wasn’t generated by the greek people.
        I have a sort of a deposit in a private Greek bank and i was surprised at the relaxed way they answered my petition to set the sum as immediately disponsible instead of trying to sell bonds,closed accounts etc.That was almost 15 days ago.Private Banks are playing their game too and there is no exit for an average citizen.
        Anyway thank you for the replies.

  17. Bankrupt Taxpayer

    I’m sure it’s irrelevant but tomorrow 14th March is “Pi Day”.

    http://www.piday.org/

    “Pi, Greek letter (π), is the symbol for the ratio of the circumference of a circle to its diameter. Pi Day is celebrated by math enthusiasts around the world on March 14th. Pi = 3.1415926535…”

    • Lorenza

      is there a date for the “phi” number? it’s way more interesting!

      • georgie

        Well if you wait for foreign bond “psi” which is the 23rd letter of the alphabet, on the 23rd March, that might be much more interesting.

    • Foucalt Tudoux Wimay

      Maths enthusiasts are idiots if they think the 24th day of the 3rd month means anything. I suggest you read Martin Armstrong if you want to try and analyse Pi and dates.
      (He suggests the financial tides move in sync. with Pi no. of days),
      Beats me.

      • Bankrupt Taxpayer

        @Foucalt Tudoux Wimay:
        Who mentioned the 24th of the 3rd month?

        Pi Day is 14th March and I suggest it was chosen to celebrate Pi because of what Pi is: 3.1415926535. Quite simple really.

        I’ll give Martin Armstrong a miss if that’s alright with you :-)

  18. There is so much subterranean slithering here it makes one wonder if the Greeks have any money of any sort that is not predestined to pay back EU loans.

  19. rowland

    ZH is a mine of information, but like Monty Python, it is an acquired taste. Buried in the cynicism are jewels of information you won’t get anywhere else. Good historical record, like John.

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  21. Lorenza

    Da pacem, Domine, in diebus nostris
    Quia non est alius
    Qui pugnet pro nobis
    Nisi tu Deus noster.
    Amen

  22. Tyler Durden entertains at zero hedge.
    DEFAULT, n. Semi-mythical celestial occurrence that passes by Earth every 76 years.
    I was worried for a second about that Greek default, but I realise there’s nothing to see now and all is well.

    FEDERAL RESERVE, n. A wholly owned subsidiary of Goldman Sachs.
    The Federal Reserve voted to give a few more billion dollars to Wall Street.

    US GOVERNMENT, n. Another wholly owned subsidiary of Goldman Sachs.
    We seem to be running out of Goldman Sachs alumni here in the Treasury. No, wait, we’ve still got hundreds of ‘em.

    • georgie

      Goldman Sachs? There’s that name again. Remind me, who was it who derivatised and bundled up all the US subprime mortgages, sold them as triple A rated CDOs and then promptly shorted them because they knew they were junk? I’m sure I’ll remember the name if look for it.

  23. theguvnor

    Jeremy Warner at DT suggesting here that likely ‘set adrift’ date is likely to happen later than March on the basis that Greece will be monitored on a quarterly basis. Do you think they’re on to you JW and adjusting accordingly?
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100015515/now-even-the-eurozone-admits-it-has-condemned-greece-to-never-ending-austerity/

    • Bankrupt Taxpayer

      Also, Roger Bootle reckons Greece will be back for a 3rd bailout in a few months on account of its debt still being too high to handle.

  24. Bill Casso

    The screws keep tightening down on the Greek economy.

    As John has told us ” it’s not over until the fat lady comes home to roost”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/13/us-eurozone-greece-austerity-idUSBRE82C0KP20120313

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  39. I dont really understand the point you are making in spite of having worked in financial markets. But the head of the EFSF is Klaus Regling not Regler

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