IRISH CRISIS BREAKING: SLOG FORECAST VINDICATED AS NEW BANK BAILOUT ESTIMATE COMES IN AT 50Billion EUROS.

THE ESTIMATED COST OF IRELAND’S BANK BAILOUT HAS RISEN 16 BILLION EUROS IN 12 HOURS.

Last night, Ireland Taoiseach Brian Cowen put the the Irish bank bailout bill at 29.7 billion euro.   This morning’s Daily Telegraph estimated 34 Billion. The Slog said higher – maybe over 40 billion.

The cost of bailing out the country’s banks may ultimately rise to about 50 billion euros, under a “stress case” scenario for Anglo Irish, according to figures published by the country’s finance ministry and the central bank in Dublin this lunchtime. The base case estimate is about 45 billion euros, the figures show. Allied Irish may also need an additional 3 billion.

The scenario also suggests Anglo Irish may need up to an additional 6.4 billion euros of capital, rising by another 5 billion euros in the event of unexpected losses. And Irish Nationwide Building Society may need a further 2.7 billion euros.

Last night The Slog posted a piece based on inside information that was highly critical of Dublin’s estimates for a bailout. We specified:

‘ 30….35….40 or more: these things have a habit of going up. A deficit alone at a fifth of total economic output, alongside a total debt of six times the Irish gdp…’

This morning’s earlier piece quoted the same source as observing:

“”There’s a lot of pie in the sky with numbers between Lenihan and Cowen” said our informant, “but these institutions are haemorrhaging cash. The bailout will nudge the debt to just over the size of the gdp…”

 Both The Slog and its sources remain dubious about this claim of Ireland being ‘funded until July 2011′. This means, in layman’s terms, the Government having no access to an overdraft at all for nine months. In our view this simply isn’t feasible.

Here at Sloggers’ Roost, however, we are still asking the same (largely rhetorical) question: where are the ECB cavalry? Where is Trichet and his much-lauded AAA ESFS….the loan facility that dare not speak its name?

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